Portail HAL Paris School of Economics (PSE)
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Gender norms and partners' joint retirement decisions: learning from a Norwegian reform
No full textWe argue that gender norms may shape partners' joint retirement decision. We study a 2011 pension reform in Norway, which incentivized postponing retirement for employees of many private sector firms. Using Norwegian register data, we construct population samples of older dual-earner couples in which only one partner was eligible for the reform, and link them to their mothers' employment status when partners were young, to capture gender norms. Taking an event-study differences-in-differences approach, we find significant employment effects for the partner directly affected by the reform, and heterogeneous spillover effects for the other partner. In particular, women with an employed mother-in-law, but not those with a stay-home mother-inlaw, increase their employment, if their husband does so, due to the reform. In contrast, men with a stay-at-home mother are more likely to postpone retirement if their wife does so, following the reform
Les rythmes de la modernisation
No full textNational audienceIntroduction de la moitié de l'ouvrage consacrée à l'époque contemporaine. Elle souligne que l'importance prise par l'échelle nationale est une spécificité de la période contemporaine et discute notamment les rythmes du changement au cours de cette période
Endogenous Clustering and Analogy-Based Expectation Equilibrium
No full textInternational audienceNormal-form two-player games are categorized by players into K analogy classes so as to minimize the prediction error about the behavior of the opponent. This results in Clustered Analogy-Based Expectation Equilibria in which strategies are analogy-based expectation equilibria given the analogy partitions and analogy partitions minimize the prediction errors given the strategies. We distinguish between environments with self-repelling analogy partitions in which some mixing over partitions is required and environments with self-attractive partitions in which several analogy partitions can arise, thereby suggesting new channels of belief heterogeneity and equilibrium multiplicity. Various economic applications are discussed
A simple and computationally trivial estimator for grouped fixed effects models
No full textInternational audienceThis paper introduces a new fixed effects estimator for linear panel data models with clustered time patterns of unobserved heterogeneity. The method avoids non-convex and combinatorial optimization by combining a preliminary consistent estimator of the slope coefficient, an agglomerative pairwise-differencing clustering of cross-sectional units, and a pooled ordinary least squares regression. Asymptotic guarantees are established in a framework where T can grow at any power of N , as both N and T approach infinity. Unlike most existing approaches, the proposed estimator is computationally straightforward and does not require a known upper bound on the number of groups. As existing approaches, this method leads to a consistent estimation of well-separated groups and an estimator of common parameters asymptotically equivalent to the infeasible regression controlling for the true groups. An application revisits the statistical association between income and democracy
Démographie et croissance économique : des liens subtils
No full textInternational audienceIl était évident pour les premiers auteurs d’ouvrages d’économie que la population et la production de richesse étaient intrinsèquement liées. Dans son Traité d’économie politique, Jean-Baptiste Say (1767-1832) cite vingt-quatre illustres prédécesseurs qui, comme lui, pensent que « le nombre des hommes se proportionnera à la quantité des produits ». Dans L’Ami des hommes, ou Traité de la population, Mirabeau (1715-1789) déclare que « les hommes [se] multiplient comme les rats dans une grange, s’ils ont les moyens de subsister. C’est un axiome que je n’ai pas inventé et qu’il est temps que l’on prenne pour base de tout calcul en ce genre »
The Old Folks at Home: Parental Retirement and Adult Children'sWell-being
No full textWe here use UK data and exploit the State Pension eligibility age to establish the causal effect of parental retirement on adult children's well-being in a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design analysis. Maternal retirement increases adult children's life and income satisfaction by 0.20 standard deviations in the short run. These impacts are stronger for adult children with lower incomes, with young children of their own, and who live close to their retired parents. We emphasise the critical role of intergenerational time transfers from retired mothers in enhancing their adult children's well-being
The Making of Civic Virtues: A School-Based Experiment in Three Countries
No full textInternational audienceThis paper shows that schools can foster the transmission of civic virtues by helping students to develop concrete, democratically chosen, collective projects. We draw on a RCT implemented in 200 middle schools in three countries. The program leads students to conduct citizenship projects in their communities under the supervision of teachers trained in the intervention. The intervention caused a decline in absenteeism and disciplinary sanctions at school, alongside improved academic achievement. It also led students to diversify their friendship network. The program has stronger effects when implemented by teachers who are initially more involved in the life of the school
Machine learning in the prediction of human wellbeing
No full textInternational audienceSubjective wellbeing data are increasingly used across the social sciences. Yet, despite the widespread use of such data, the predictive power of approaches commonly used to model wellbeing is only limited. In response, we here use tree-based Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to provide a better understanding of respondents’ self-reported wellbeing. We analyse representative samples of more than one million respondents from Germany, the UK, and the United States, using data from 2010 to 2018. We make three contributions. First, we show that ML algorithms can indeed yield better predictive performance than standard approaches, and establish an upper bound on the predictability of wellbeing scores with survey data. Second, we use ML to identify the key drivers of evaluative wellbeing. We show that the variables emphasised in the earlier intuition- and theory-based literature also appear in ML analyses. Third, we illustrate how ML can be used to make a judgement about functional forms, including the existence of satiation points in the effects of income and the U-shaped relationship between age and wellbeing
On the (Ir)Relevance of Discount Factors for Future Allocations of Scarce Resources
No full textThis article is interested in future allocations of scarce resources in an environment where upper bounds and lower bounds are fixed on the stream of consumptions or extractions of the scarce resource. It is shown that we can compute the optimal planning of consumptions independently from an explicit sequence of discounting factors as soon as they are decreasing at a rate smaller than a bound linked to the concavity of the utility function and the choice of the sequences of lower and upper bounds. The optimal solution is unique and exhibits two regimes with a pivotal period in the middle. Therefore, one gets plans satisfying some kind of intergenerational fairness: while the highest e ort is supported by the first generations, it then decreases for the remaining ones. The argument is then extended to partially renewable resources. Finally, we consider the role of the horizon and of a potential regret after a revision for the bounds
Inequality Bands: Seventy-five years of measuring income inequality in Latin America
No full textInternational audienceDrawing on a comprehensive compilation of quantile shares and inequality measures for 34 countries, including over 5,600 estimated Gini coefficients, we review the measurement of income inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean over the last seven decades. We find that there is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding inequality levels for the same country/year combinations. Differences in inequality levels estimated from household surveys alone are present but they derive from differences in the construction of the welfare indicator, the unit of analysis, or the treatment of the data. With harmonized household surveys, the discrepancies are quite small. The range, however, expands significantly when to correct for undercoverage and underreporting especially at the top of the distribution inequality estimates come from some combination of surveys and administrative tax data. The range increases even further when survey-based income aggregates are scaled to achieve consistency not only with tax registries but with National Accounts. Since no single method to correct for underreporting at the top is fully convincing at present, we are left with (often wide) ranges, or bands, of inequality as our best summaries of inequality levels. Reassuringly, however, the dynamic patterns are generally robust across the bands. Although the evidence roughly until the 1970s is too fragmentary and difficult to compare, clearer patterns emerge for the last fifty years. The main feature is a broad inverted U curve, with inequality rising in most countries prior to and often during the 1990s, and falling during the early 21st century, at least until around 2015, when trends appear to diverge across countries. This pattern is broadly robust but features considerable variation in timing and magnitude depending on the country