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Learning What is Similar: Precedents and Equilibrium Selection
No full textWe argue that a precedent is important not only because it changes the relative frequency of a certain event, making it positive rather than zero, but also because it changes the way that relative frequencies are weighed. Specifically, agents assess probabilities of future events based on past occurrences, where not all of these occurrences are deemed equally relevant. More similar cases are weighed more heavily than less similar ones. Importantly, the similarity function is also learnt from experience by "second-order induction". The model can explain why a single precedent affects beliefs above and beyond its effect on relative frequencies, as well as why it is easier to establish reputation at the outset than to re-establish it after having lost it. We also apply the model to equilibrium selection in a class of games dubbed "Statis- tical Games", suggesting the notion of Similarity-Nash equilibria, and illustrate the impact of precedents on the play of coordination games
What Are Axiomatizations Good For?
No full textIn light of the interest in axiomatic models of decision making in recent years, one is led to ask, in what ways do the axiomatic deriva- tions advance economics? If economists are interested in predicting how people behave, without a pretense to change individual decision making, how can they benefit from representation theorems, which are no more than equivalence results? We address this question, propose several ways in which representation results can still be useful, and discuss their potential implications to axiomatic decision theory
Mandatory and Voluntary Disclosures: Dynamic Interactions
No full textFirms sometimes obtain soft private information about growth prospects along with hard information about current or past performance. In this environment, we find that optimizing disclosures over multiple periods yields nonlinear stock price reactions following both voluntary and mandatory disclosures. Further, we derive several predictions about distinct short-run and long-run effects of disclosures and nondisclosures on security prices. Under specified conditions, when the volatility of the firm’s earnings increases, the average contemporaneous and prospective post-mandatory disclosure market premia (for voluntary disclosures over nondisclosures) rise, while farther-in-future market discounts (for such voluntary disclosures) also become larger. Our analysis moreover predicts that both the disclosure probability and the information content of nondisclosures can increase in the persistence of earnings
Data for Good: Unlocking Privately-Held Data to the Benefit of the Many
No full textIt is almost a truism to argue that data holds a great promise of transformative resources for social good, by helping to address a complex range of societal issues, ranging from saving lives in the aftermath of a natural disaster to predicting teen suicides. Yet it is not public authorities who hold this real-time data, but private entities, such as mobile network operators and business card companies, and - with even greater detail - tech firms such as Google through its globally-dominant search engine, and, in particular, social media platforms, such as Facebook and Twitter. Besides a few isolated and self-proclaimed ‘data philanthropy’ initiatives and other corporate data-sharing collaborations, data-rich companies have historically shown resistance to not only share this data for the public good, but also to identify its inherent social, non-commercial benefit. How to explain to citizens across the world that their own data - which has been aggressively harvested over time - can’t be used, and not even in emergency situations? Responding to this unsettling question entails a fascinating research journey for anyone interested in how the promises of big data could deliver for society as a whole. In the absence of a plausible solution, the number of societal problems that won’t be solved unless firms like Facebook, Google and Apple start coughing up more data-based evidence will increase exponentially, as well as societal rejection of their underlying business models.This article identifies the major challenges of unlocking private-held data to the benefit of society and sketches a research agenda for scholars interested in collaborative and regulatory solutions aimed at unlocking privately-held data for good
Undermining the Restorative Potential of Compensatory Consumption: A Product's Explicit Identity Connection Impedes Self-Repair
No full textWhen people experience threats to important aspects of their self-concept (e.g., power, intelligence, sociability), they often compensate by consuming products that symbolize success, mastery, or competence on the threatened self-domain (within-domain compensatory consumption). Our research examines whether such compensatory consumption is effective in repairing the self-concept. Across seven experiments, we show that whether compensatory consumption is effective depends on the extent to which the connection between the compensatory products and the threatened domains is made explicit. When the connections are made explicit (e.g., through product names and marketing slogans), self-repair is impeded, but when the connections are only implicit (product is inherently symbolic of self-threat domain), self-repair can be successful. We further show that these differential effects of product connection explicitness are mediated by rumination: explicit connections induce rumination about the self-threat, which undermines self-repair, whereas implicit connections cause no rumination, facilitating self-repair. Our research provides a reconciliation of conflicting findings on self-repair in previous research, and also shows that despite the differences in efficacy, consumers compensate regardless of whether product connections are implicit or explicit, which has implications for consumer well-being
Cover-Up of Vehicle Defects: The Role of Regulator Investigation Announcements
No full textAutomakers such as Toyota and GM were recently caught by the U.S. regulator for deliberately hiding product defects in an attempt to avoid massive recalls. Interestingly, regulators in the U.S. and U.K. employ different policies in informing consumers about potential defects: The U.S. regulator publicly announces all on-going investigations of potential defects to provide consumers with early information, whereas the U.K. regulator does not. To understand how these different announcement policies may affect cover-up decisions of automakers, we model the strategic interaction between a manufacturer and a regulator. We find that, under both countries' policies, the manufacturer has an incentive to cover up a potential defect when there is a high chance that the defect indeed exists and it may inflict only moderate harm. However, only under the U.S. policy does the manufacturer have an incentive to cover up a potential defect with significant harm, if there is only a moderate chance that the defect exists. We show that the U.S policy generates higher social welfare only for very serious issues for which both the expected harm and recall cost are very high and the defect is likely to exist. We make four policy recommendations that could help mitigate manufacturers' cover-ups, including a hybrid policy in which the regulator conducts a confidential investigation of a potential defect only when it may inflict significant harm
VizieR Online Data Catalog: Gaia DR2 sources in GC and dSph (Gaia Collaboration+, 2018)
No full textVizieR On-line Data Catalog: J/A+A/616/A12. Originally published in: 2018A&A...616A..12GThe files contains lists of possible members of each of the objects (75 globular clusters, 9 dwarf spheroidal galaxies, the Bootes I UFD, the LMC and SMC). The stars in these lists have been selected and used to determine the astrometric parameters of the corresponding objects following either the procedures described in Sec. 2.1 (for the clusters and dwarfs) or in Sec. 2.2 (for the LMC and SMC). The first column is the "source_id" as given by Gaia, the ra and declination of the star in degrees, and its G-band magnitude (known as "photgmean_mag" in the Gaia archive). (2 data files)
Reinforcing the Public Law Taboo: A Note on Hellenic Republic v Nikiforidis
No full textThis article hinges on the preliminary ruling rendered by the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) (Grand Chamber) on 18 October 2016 and the related judgment of the German Federal Labour Court of 26 April 2017 in the Nikiforidis case to investigate an area of private international law that is undergoing a substantial development: overriding mandatory provisions. In Nikiforidis, the CJEU excluded that two Greek laws cutting the salary of public employees may be enforced against a teacher working in Germany for the Greek Government under an employment contract governed by German law. The question addressed to the CJEU was whether the said laws were “overriding mandatory provisions” according to the Rome I Regulation. The Court denied it, and left to the referring court to determine whether they could nevertheless operate “as matter of fact” under the governing law. This article explains how the CJEU’s conclusion has broader implications by regulating third countries’ interference in international business transactions. Starting with an analysis of the case, the article examines the history and nature of overriding mandatory provisions under EU private international law and argues that the solution embraced by the CJEU leaves room for uncertainty and unpredictability in the operation of foreign mandatory provisions.This material was firstly published by Thomson Reuters Limited in Edoardo Avato & Matteo Winkler, Reinforcing the Public Law Taboo: A Note on Hellenic Republic v Nikiforidis, 43 European Law Review (2018), 569-582, and is reproduced by agreement with the publishe
The Present and Future of Judgement Aggregation Theory. A Law and Economics Perspective
No full textThis chapter briefly reviews the present state of judgment aggregation theory and tentatively suggests a future direction for that theory. In the review, we start by emphasizing the difference between the doctrinal paradox and the discursive dilemma, two idealized examples which classically serve to motivate the theory, and then proceed to reconstruct it as a brand of logical theory, unlike in some other interpretations, using a single impossibility theorem as a key to its technical development. In the prospective part, having mentioned existing applications to social choice theory and computer science, which we do not discuss here, we consider a potential application to law and economics. This would be based on a deeper exploration of the doctrinal paradox and its relevance to the functioning of collegiate courts. On this topic, legal theorists have provided empirical observations and theoretical hints that judgment aggregation theorists would be in a position to clarify and further elaborate. As a general message, the chapter means to suggest that the future of judgment aggregation theory lies with its applications rather than its internal theoretical development
"Virtual technologies" for "real collaborations" : is fostering user trust the key ?
No full textInternational audienceDespite their tremendous ‘collaborative potential', virtual environments such as virtual world platforms have not yet found widespread usage for organizational collaborations. Uncertainty associated with the individual user's willingness for using such virtual platforms is one of the major organizational concerns. We propose a trust-theoretic model for using virtual world platforms as workplace collaboration tools. Specifically, we theorize two prime antecedents of user trust in VW - ‘trust in the virtual community' and ‘trust in the virtual technology', subdivided as ‘party trust' and ‘control trust'. The moderating influence of ‘individual traits' on the relationship between ‘user trust' and ‘VW usage intention' are also examined. Results demonstrate the significance of ‘user trust', especially ‘control trust' for using VWs as workplace collaborative tools. Moderation analyses suggest a weakening in the effect of trust on usage intention for individuals with strong traits such as ‘self-efficacy' and ‘anxiety'