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'We'll Always Have Paris': Out-of-Country Buyers in the Housing Market
No full textPrevious research has shown that non-local household investors make sub-optimal asset selection and market timing decisions. However, in real estate markets, heterogeneity in returns can exist even with identical ex ante investment (timing) choices, given that transaction prices are the outcome of a complex search-and-bargaining process. Analyzing notarial data for the Paris housing market, we find that “out-of-country” buyers indeed buy at higher prices and resell at substantially lower prices than local investors, ceteris paribus. Furthermore, our evidence suggests that this pattern is not due to higher search costs and information asymmetries, but instead stems from wealth-related differences in bargaining intensity. Finally, we estimate the causal effect of out-of-country demand shocks on property prices in Paris to be positive but small
Overreaction in Expectations: Evidence and Theory
No full textWe investigate biases in expectations across different settings through a large-scale randomized experiment where participants forecast stable stochastic processes. The experiment allows us to control forecasters’ information sets as well as the data generating process, so we can cleanly measure biases in beliefs. We find that forecasts display significant overreaction to the most recent observation. Moreover, overreaction is especially pronounced for less persistent processes and longer forecast horizons. We also find that commonly-used expectations models do not easily account for these variations in the degree of overreaction across different settings. To explain the observed patterns of overreaction, we develop a tractable model of expectations formation with costly information processing. Our model closely fits the empirical findings and generates additional predictions that we confirm in the data
Point-to-Point Strategic Communication
No full textInternational audienceWe investigate a strategic formulation of the joint source-channel coding problem in which the encoder and the decoder are endowed with distinct distortion functions. We provide the solutions in four different scenarios. First, we assume that the encoder and the decoder cooperate in order to achieve a certain pair of distortion values. Second, we suppose that the encoder commits to a strategy whereas the decoder implements a best response, as in the persuasion game where the encoder is the Stackelberg leader. Third, we consider that the decoder commits to a strategy, as in the mismatched rate-distortion problem or as in the mechanism design framework. Fourth, we study the cheap talk game in which the encoding and the decoding strategies form a Nash equilibrium
Essais en finance
No full textThis thesis consists of three articles. The two first articles study information flows in the financial markets, and the third one studies how mutual fund families may use relatively discretionary income sources to channel profits to specific funds within the family. The first article, joint with Daniel Schmidt, studies price and liquidity spillovers in financial markets. Using a quasi-natural experiment, we show that investors look at stock prices to extract signals, and use these to trade. In the second article, I show that mutual fund acquire information through the securities lending market. I show that active mutual funds start selling the stocks that are borrowed from them by short sellers, whereas index funds — that are prohibited from trading — do not. One the other hand, index funds are able to charge higher stock lending fees from the borrowers. I attribute this to them being better lenders in the sense that they can not use the information they gain to trade, and thereby extract profits from the short sellers’ information. The third article, also with Daniel Schmidt, studies fund family level policies in allocating securities loans and lending revenues between member funds. We show that fund families deviate from the claimed fair allocation, directing more securities loans and lending profits to index funds. The finding is in line with with funds substituting a lower expense ratio with higher securities lending income.Cette thèse se compose de trois articles. Les deux premiers articles étudient les flux d'informations sur les marchés financiers, et le troisième étudie comment les familles de fonds communs de placement peuvent utiliser des sources de revenus relativement discrétionnaires pour canaliser des bénéfices vers des fonds spécifiques au sein de la famille. Le premier article, rédigé en collaboration avec Daniel Schmidt, étudie les retombées de prix et de liquidité sur les marchés financiers. En utilisant une expérience quasi-naturelle, nous montrons que les investisseurs observent les prix des actions pour en extraire des signaux, et les utilisent pour effectuer des transactions. Dans le deuxième article, je montre que les fonds d'investissement acquièrent des informations par le marché des prêts de titres. Je montre que les fonds communs de placement actifs vendent les actions qui leur sont empruntées par des vendeurs à découvert, alors que les fonds indiciels - qui sont interdits de négociation - ne le font pas. D'un autre côté, les fonds indiciels sont en mesure de facturer des frais de prêt de titres plus élevés aux emprunteurs. Je leur attribue le fait qu'ils sont de meilleurs prêteurs dans le sens où ils ne peuvent pas utiliser les informations qu'ils obtiennent pour négocier, et donc tirer des bénéfices des informations des vendeurs à découvert. Le troisième article, également avec Daniel Schmidt, étudie les politiques des familles de fonds en matière de répartition des prêts de titres et des revenus de prêts entre les fonds membres. Nous montrons que les familles de fonds s'écartent de l'allocation équitable revendiquée, en dirigeant davantage de prêts de titres et de bénéfices de prêts vers les fonds indiciels. Cette conclusion est conforme à la substitution par les fonds des frais de gestion plus faibles par des revenus de prêts de titres plus élevés
Equilibrium Data Mining and Data Abundance
No full textInternational audienceWe model of the search for predictors by speculators (active asset managers) and use it to analyze how the improvement in data processing power and the growth in available data (“data abundance”) affect the diversity of trading signals used by speculators, the dispersion of their profits and the similarities of their holdings. Our central message is that data abundance and computing power do not have the same effects. In particular, an improvement in computing power always raises the bar for the quality of predictors that managers consider good enough to exploit while more data lower it when data becomes sufficiently abundant. When this happens, the diversity of speculators’ signals and the dispersion of their trading profits increase in equilibrium while their holdings become less correlated
Organizational Adaptation
No full textOrganizational adaptation is equivocal. On the one hand, the concept is ubiquitous in management research and acts as the glue binding together the central issues of organizational change, performance, and survival. On the other hand, it lurks around in various guises (e.g., “fit,” “alignment,” “congruence,” and “strategic change”) studied from multiple theoretical streams (e.g., behavioral, resource-based, and institutional), and at different levels of analysis (e.g., organization- and industry-level). In a novel approach to reviewing 443 adaptation articles that leverages both computational and hand-coded analysis, we produce an interactive visual of the themes most studied by adaptation scholars. We inductively draw out a definition of adaptation as intentional decision-making undertaken by organizational members, leading to observable actions that aim to reduce the distance between an organization and its economic and institutional environments. We then review the literature across three main areas of inquiry and six theoretical perspectives that surfaced from our analysis and identify eleven difficulties that have hampered adaptation research in the past 50 years. Our review suggests ways to address these difficulties to enable future research to develop and cumulate
Reproducibility Certification in Economics Research
No full textReproducibility is key for building trust in research, yet it is not widespread in economics. We show how external certification can improve reproducibility in economics research. Such certification can be conducted by a trusted third party or agency, which formally tests whether a given result is indeed generated by the code and data used by a researcher. This additional validation step significantly enriches the peer-review process, without adding an extra burden on journals or unduly lengthening the publication process. We show that external certification can accommodate research based on confidential data. Lastly, we present an actual example of external certification
Better to Have Led and Lost than Never to Have Led at All? Lost Leadership and Effort Provision in Dynamic Tournaments
No full textIn this paper, we develop and test a behavioral theory of lost leadership. Using insights from the literature on goals as reference points and prospect theory, we predict that former leaders exert more effort compared to otherwise identical competitors. We test this prediction using two contexts. The first, quasi-laboratory, data comes from an educational business game. The second setting draws on field data from a two-month banking sales contest. We find that provision of effort increases following the loss of leadership. We also explore whether past leaders exert more effort in general or simply shift effort from other, potentially less-salient goals. We find evidence of both mechanisms. Finally, we investigate the temporal effects and find that having been a leader has an attenuating effect on subsequent behavior
Declining Business Dynamism Among Our Best Opportunities: The Role of the Burden of Knowledge
No full textWe document that since 1997, the rate of startup formation has precipitously declined for firms operated by U.S. PhD recipients in science and engineering. These are supposedly the source of some of our best new technological and business opportunities. We link this to an increasing burden of knowledge by documenting a long-term earnings decline by founders, especially less experienced founders, greater work complexity in R&D, and more administrative work. The results suggest that established firms are better positioned to cope with the increasing burden of knowledge, in particular through the design of knowledge hierarchies, explaining why new firm entry has declined for high-tech, high-opportunity startups
The Downside of Experimentation: Evidence from Television Shows
No full textFirms often partially fund new projects for preliminary development rather than fully fund them to fruition. This staged development yields early feedback which can improve an individual project through learning and a portfolio of projects by the termination of weaker ideas. Although prior empirical studies have found a positive relationship between staged development and outcomes, these studies were limited to settings that only allowed for learning, i.e. projects were never terminated. To capture the full effect, this paper exploits a form staged development in the television show industry where a new show’s first episode is filmed and evaluated before commissioning the full show. Using Netflix’s entry into television show production as a source of randomization, a negative treatment effect of piloting on show ratings is measured for shows that are more likely to survive piloting. Mechanism evidence suggests piloting worsens shows by impeding their ability to attract actors and lowering planning of the full season. Hence, staged development can have a downside: the lack of commitment to projects can prevent them from getting the resources and effort necessary for success