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Privacy-Preserving Personalized Revenue Management
No full textThis paper examines how data-driven personalized decisions can be made while preserving consumer privacy. Our setting is one in which the firm chooses a personalized price based on each new customer's vector of individual features; the true set of individual demand-generating parameters is unknown to the firm and so must be estimated from historical data. We extend this classical framework of personalized pricing by requiring also that the firm's pricing policy preserve consumer privacy, or (formally) that it be differentially private -- an industry standard for privacy preservation. The two settings we consider are theoretically and practically relevant: central and local models of differential privacy, which differ in the strength of the privacy guarantees they provide. For both models, we develop privacy-preserving personalized pricing algorithms and derive the theoretical bounds on their performance as measured by the firm's revenue. Our analyses suggest that, if the firm possesses a sufficient amount of historical data, then it can achieve central differential privacy at a cost of the same order as the "classical" loss in revenue due to estimation error. Comparing the two models, we conclude that local differentially private personalized pricing yields better privacy guarantees but leads to much greater revenue loss by the firm. We confirm our theoretical findings in a series of numerical experiments based on synthetically generated and real-world On-line Auto Lending (CPRM-12-001) data sets. Finally, we also apply our theoretical framework to the setting of personalized assortment optimization
Equilibrium Data Mining and Data Abundance
No full textInternational audienceWe model of the search for predictors by speculators (active asset managers) and use it to analyze how the improvement in data processing power and the growth in available data (“data abundance”) affect the diversity of trading signals used by speculators, the dispersion of their profits and the similarities of their holdings. Our central message is that data abundance and computing power do not have the same effects. In particular, an improvement in computing power always raises the bar for the quality of predictors that managers consider good enough to exploit while more data lower it when data becomes sufficiently abundant. When this happens, the diversity of speculators’ signals and the dispersion of their trading profits increase in equilibrium while their holdings become less correlated
Refocusing Loyalty Programs in the Era of Big Data: A Societal Lens Paradigm
No full textBig data and technological change have enabled loyalty programs to become more prevalent and complex. How these developments influence society has been overlooked, both in academic research and in practice. We argue why this issue is important and propose a framework to refocus loyalty programs in the era of big data through a societal lens. We focus on three aspects of the societal lens—inequality, privacy, and sustainability. We discuss how loyalty programs in the big data era impact each of these societal factors, and then illustrate how, by adopting this societal lens paradigm, researchers and practitioners can generate insights and ideas that address the challenges and opportunities that arise from the interaction between loyalty programs and society. Our goal is to broaden the perspectives of researchers and managers so they can enhance loyalty programs to address evolving societal needs
The Case for Citizen Participation in the European Union: A Theoretical Perspective on EU Participatory Democracy
No full textTen years after the introduction of participatory democracy as one of the democratic foundations of the European Union, this introductory chapter to "Citizen Participation in Democratic Europe" provides some theoretical background on the role citizens play, and should play, within the EU democratic system.As such, it offers a contribution about the place of citizen participation in the wider, ongoing debate about how to develop the EU’s democratic system in a post-pandemic Europe. It sets the scene for the subsequent chapters written, again, not only by academic scholars but also civil society advocates and practitioners from across Europe who experience on a daily basis the realities of EU citizen participation.Ultimately, this edited volume argues how Europe’s long-standing democracy challenge can be addressed through the emergence of a new model of EU citizen participation, and a set of democratic innovations emerging bottom-up across the continent. To do so, it offers a re-evaluation and systematisation of EU level citizen participation and its future development, which remains largely underexplored
The Source of Resources Providing Competitive Advantage: Evidence from Netflix’s Entry
No full textA firm’s resources are well understood to be a source of competitive advantage. However, how a firm comes to acquire resources with the traits that provide competitive advantage is less clear. To explore this question, this paper studies a setting where heterogenous incumbent firms were affected by a common environmental shock and investigates the characteristics of firms that successfully adapted to the new environment. Netflix’s entry into the television show production forced the United States incumbent networks to alter how some television shows are made. The paper finds that incumbent networks with prior experience in the new practice did not fare better than their peers. However, those with existing deep supplier relationships were better able to manage this transition. This result suggests the resources providing competitive advantage may come primarily through serendipity rather than active planning by firms
Newspaper Censorship in China: Evidence from Tunneling Scandals
No full textMedia dissemination plays an important role in facilitating price discovery. Political pressure that restricts media dissemination can hinder this function and affect investors’ perceptions. This paper studies the magnitude of newspaper censorship in China and its economic consequences using a setting of “tunneling” scandals. We find significant evidence of censorship of tunneling-related negative news at the national and local level. We further show that news that survives censorship reduces information asymmetry and improves pricing efficiency. We find that censorship blocks informative tunneling news and delays incorporation of tunneling reporting into prices
What If Dividends Were Tax‐Exempt? Evidence from a Natural Experiment
No full textWe study the effect of dividend taxes on the payout and investment policies of publicly listed firms. To do so, we exploit a unique setting in Switzerland where, following the corporate tax reform of 2011, some but not all firms were suddenly able to pay tax-exempt dividends to their shareholders. Using a difference-in-differences specification, we show that treated firms swiftly and permanently increase their dividend payout by around 30% compared to control firms after the tax cut. When studying the effect of agency conflicts, we show that the impact on the payout is less pronounced for firms in which the controlling shareholders have more voting rights than cash-flow rights. We find a significant positive abnormal stock return after the announcement of the payment of a tax-exempt dividend. However, reducing dividend taxes does not boost investment. This is due to a significant drop in retained earnings and to the fact that equity issuances do not surge after the tax cut. Our evidence is consistent with models where the marginal source of finance is retained earnings, and inconsistent with the neoclassical theory of dividend taxation
Earnings Expectations in the COVID Crisis
No full textWe analyze firm-level analyst forecasts during the COVID crisis. First, we describe expectations dynamics about future corporate earnings. Downward revisions have been sharp, mostly focused on 2020, 2021 and 2022, but much less drastic than the lower bound estimated by Gormsen and Koijen (2020). Analyst forecasts do not exhibit evidence of over-reaction: As of mid-May, forecasts over 2020 earnings have progressively been reduced by 16%. Longer-run forecasts, as well as expected “Long-Term Growth” have reacted much less than short-run forecasts, and feature less disagreement. Second, we ask how much discount rate changes explain market dynamics, in an exercise similar to Shiller (1981). Given forecast revisions and price movements, we estimate an implicit discount rate going from 10% in mid-February, to 13% at the end of March, back down to their initial level in mid-May. We then decompose discount rate changes into three factors: changes in unlevered asset risk premium (0%), increased leverage (+1%) and interest rate reduction (-1%). Overall, analyst forecast revisions explain most of the decrease in equity values between January 2020 and mid May 2020, but they do not explain shorter term stock market movements
Taming COVID-19 by Regulation: An Opportunity for Self-Reflection
No full textThe COVID-19 outbreak offers a rich case study of government’s emergency response. As such, it is a test bed for risk research and regulatory theories in a world increasingly shaped by transboundary, uncertain manufactured and natural risks.This introductory essay to the special issue of the European Journal of Risk Regulation attempts at providing an initial analysis of the surprisingly uncoordinated, at times unscientific, response to an essentially foreseeable event like a novel coronavirus (nCoV) in a geopolitically shattered world.It warns that COVID-19 may go down in history as yet another major disaster occurrence with no learnings attached. Yet, as new transboundary disasters – from bioterrorism to climate change – loom on the horizon, neither the world nor risk regulation, as a discipline and practice of government, can hardly afford to let another crisis go wasted
Does the Marginal Entrepreneur Matter?
No full textI study the effect of improved access to health insurance on the rate new business formation and the quality of those newly created businesses. I develop theoretical models which provide predictions on how improved access to health insurance would heterogeneously affect firms by non-profit status and capital requirements. Using the 2006 reform of the Massachusetts health insurance market, I test those predications and find non-profit entrepreneurship was significantly affected although overall entrepreneurship seems constrained by factors other than access to health care such as access to capital. I also provide evidence that the quality of non-profits created by the shock where poor. These results suggest that even when policy changes are able to induce more entrepreneurship, the marginal quality of those entrepreneurs may be poor