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Pro-Patent Policy in the Knowledge-Based Economy
No full textIn a knowledge-based economy, innovation plays a significant role in determining the level of economic growth and social welfare. Meanwhile, patent protection is a pivotal factor for research and development (R&D) incentives, and innovation performance depends on the degree of patent protection. Therefore, elucidating the mechanism for impact of patent protection on innovation; and hence economic growth is a crucial issue from the perspective of macroeconomic policy. Our research questions are twofold. (1) What conditions are necessary for patent protection to effectively promote innovation and economic growth? (2) Can strengthening patent protection enhance social welfare? This study addresses these problems using an expanding variety model of R&D-based endogenous growth. Our major findings are summarized as follows: If an economy satisfies conditions that the productivity in the final goods sector and labor force population are relatively large, while the patent duration elasticity of patent fee is relatively small, extending the patent duration fosters on the rate of innovation, the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and the growth rate of livelihood-based public infrastructure. Moreover, strengthening patent protection by extending the duration of the patent right does not necessarily enhance social welfare. Furthermore, the patent duration that maximizes social welfare may be shorter than the patent duration that maximizes the growth rate of GDP per capita, the rate of innovation, or the growth rate of livelihood-based public infrastructure
Poverty, Environmental Degradation, and Livability: Ranking of Iranian Provinces Using Principal Component Analysis
No full textThe relationship between poverty and the environment is multi-dimensional and complex, necessitating a detailed analysis, particularly at the regional level. This study evaluates and ranks Iran’s 30 provinces based on the poverty-environment nexus. Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), a composite index comprMiising energy consumption intensity, CO₂ emissions, water stress index, and desertified land area was developed for the year 2021. The first two principal components explained approximately 71% of the total variance. Results indicate a significant negative correlation between poverty and environmental degradation (r = -0.61). In this context, wealthier provinces such as Tehran, Isfahan, and Khuzestan experience the highest environmental degradation, whereas poorer provinces encounter relatively less environmental pressure. The findings suggest that improved economic conditions in Iranian provinces have often been accompanied by reduced livability and heightened environmental degradation. Therefore, policymakers are advised to prioritize enhancing livability by integrating sustainable water resource management and desertification control into poverty alleviation strategies
Financial stability determinants in Nigeria: role of profitability, capital regulation, financial inclusion, inflation, unemployment and economic growth
No full textThis study investigates the determinants of financial stability in Nigeria. The two-stage least squares regression and fully modified ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methods were used to estimate the determinants of financial stability in Nigeria from 2002 to 2021. The findings reveal that banking sector return on asset, regulatory capital ratio, the level of financial inclusion, economic growth, inflation and the total unemployment rate are significant determinants of financial stability in Nigeria. Return on asset and the rate of unemployment have a significant positive impact on financial stability. The regulatory capital ratio, the level of financial inclusion, economic growth and inflation have a significant negative impact on financial stability in Nigeria. The implication of the findings is that high bank profitability (or high return on asset), low regulatory capital ratio and low inflation are crucial for financial stability in Nigeria. The results suggest that policymakers in Nigeria should use a mix of macroprudential and macroeconomic policy tools to ensure that banks remain profitable, maintain a minimum regulatory capital ratio and operate in a low inflation and low unemployment environment in order to preserve financial stability in Nigeria
Unemployment invariance hypothesis and labor supply: a test for 31 American countries
No full textThis study examines the empirical validity of the Unemployment Invariance Hypothesis (UIH) using a sample of 31 American countries and annual data from 1991 to 2023. While previous literature often focused on single-country analyses, an existing study for Latin America covers only six countries and relies on short time spans, limiting their ability to capture full economic cycles. This paper expands both the temporal and geographical scope, enabling more accurate cross-country comparisons. The results generally reject the UIH, with significant implications for economic policy in both cases—whether the hypothesis is accepted or not. In countries where UIH is rejected, the discouraged worker effect (DWE) tends to outweigh the added worker effect (AWE). These findings highlight the need for country-specific labor policies, which can be better designed based on the estimates presented
Institutionelle Transformation im Bankensektor: Multidimensionale Analyse der Auswirkungen von Digitalisierung, ESG, Demografie und Regulierung auf deutsche und europäische Kreditinstitute
No full textThe European, and in particular the German, banking sector is in a phase of profound structural transformation that is characterised by the simultaneous impact and interaction of several macro-structural drivers. Advancing digitalisation - particularly through artificial intelligence (AI) and distributed ledger technology (DLT) - ESG integration as a strategic and regulatory imperative, a tightening regulatory framework (including Basel IV, DORA, EU AI Act, MiCA), demographic changes and intensified competition from digital players and changing customer behaviour are presenting banks with profound challenges.
This discussion paper explains the impact of these drivers on business models, risk management, operational resilience, regulatory adjustment requirements and the strategic positioning of banks in the German and European context. It shows that the simultaneous management of these transformations - under conditions of increased complexity and rising demands on capital, technology and personnel - requires integrated management approaches and far-reaching organisational adjustments.In particular, the focus is on: the strategic use of AI, taking into account ethical and regulatory limits, the anchoring of ESG in risk management and product strategy, the impact of Basel IV regulations on the capital structure, and the relevance of demographic shifts for customer interfaces, HR strategies and sales models. The work concludes with the formulation of strategic imperatives for banks as an approach to a future-oriented, resilient and competitive realignment
Penalized regression methods for exchange rate forecasting: evidence from the U.S. dollar index
No full textThis paper examines the effectiveness of penalized regression techniques in forecasting exchange rate movements. Using daily data for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) in 2016, we compare the performance of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) with Ridge and Lasso regression models. The predictors include gold and silver returns, the S&P 500 Index, short- and long-term Treasury yields, and the EURUSD exchange rate. Results show that while OLS suffers from instability due to multicollinearity, Ridge regression improves coefficient stability and predictive accuracy. Lasso regression provides the best overall performance, with the highest explanatory power and the lowest prediction error, by selecting only the most relevant variables. These findings underscore the value of penalized regression in financial econometrics and highlight its potential for robust exchange rate forecasting
Europe’s Trade Surplus, International Relative Prices, and the Productivity Growth Gap
No full textThe Euro Area faces persistently weak productivity growth alongside a sustained trade surplus and a trendless real exchange rate. This column shows that persistent productivity growth differentials relative to the rest of the world, are a key driver of Europe’s external surplus. Structural trade shifts, such as declining home bias and falling import prices, have offset the appreciation pressures from the productivity-growth gap. Weak domestic investment is partly driven by global forces, highlighting the limits of purely demand-based explanations and associated policy prescriptions
Inflationary and Deflationary Pressures: A Directional Decomposition of U.S. Inflation Dynamics
No full textThis paper develops a pressure decomposition of inflation as the net outcome of two competing forces: inflationary pressure, defined by the frequency and magnitude of price increases, and deflationary pressure, determined by corresponding price decreases. Using 245 PCE sub-indices spanning 1959-2024, we construct an exact bottom-up inflation measure that transparently maps sectoral pricing decisions into macroeconomic aggregates. Our decomposition reveals fundamental asymmetries in inflation formation: inflationary pressure exhibits dramatic variation (2.35%-12.68%) while deflationary pressure remains remarkably stable (0.72%-5.18%), indicating inflation episodes are primarily driven by surges in upward pricing momentum rather than retreats of downward movements. Historical analysis shows distinct pressure regimes across major macroeconomic episodes: the Great Inflation featured extreme inflationary pressure volatility, the Great Moderation achieved balanced dynamics, the 2008-2009 crisis uniquely witnessed deflationary pressure dominance creating deflation risk, while COVID-19 saw dramatic inflationary pressure resurgence. We reassess the price puzzle using Bayesian local projections with alternative monetary policy shock identifications. Conventional narrative shocks generate sustained inflationary pressure increases with minimal deflationary response, while informationally robust shocks resolve the puzzle completely through both increased deflationary pressure and reduced inflationary pressure, with the deflationary channel providing the dominant contribution consistent with demand-channel transmission. Extensive robustness checks across specifications and estimation methods confirm these findings while revealing the diagnostic value of pressure decomposition for evaluating shock quality. Results demonstrate that the price puzzle reflects informational frictions rather than genuine economic phenomena, and suggest successful monetary policy operates through managing pressure balance with important implications for real-time policy diagnosis and central bank communication
Can We Measure from the Bottom Up? Constructing an Index of Gas Station Infrastructure to Identify Regional Economic Development
No full textWe develop a methodology that leverages open-source geospatial data on fuel station infrastructure and related services to construct the Gas Station Index (GSI), a novel indicator that augments official and alternative measures of regional economic development. Gas stations serve as consumer-facing infrastructure nodes, and their density and quality reflect local demand, purchasing power, and mobility. Using data on 19,033 stations across 62 regions in nine European countries, the GSI explains 64% of the cross-regional variation in GDP per capita - a notable result for a single-variable indicator. Beyond its statistical fit, the GSI uncovers meaningful economic patterns. It reflects diminishing returns to infrastructure, consistent with core economic theory; it maps spatial inequality both visually and statistically, highlighting clusters of prosperity in capitals, port cities, transit corridors, and tourist destinations; and it classifies regional development typologies through bivariate LISA analysis. The unexplained variation underscores the structural differences between infrastructure-based indicator and GDP per capita, driven by sectoral specialization, mobility patterns, and informal economic activity. The GSI should therefore be viewed not as a substitute for national accounts, but as a complementary indicator particularly relevant at the subnational level. Compared to existing indicators, it offers distinct advantages: GDP per capita is delayed and masks heterogeneity, while night-time lights suffer from saturation and rural undercoverage. By contrast, the GSI provides a ground-level, behaviorally grounded, and real-time measure of economic development. By capturing both infrastructure and consumption dynamics, it complements—and in certain respects surpasses—conventional indicators in tracing regional growth trajectories and spatial inequality
Tourism and Labor Markets in Transition: Sustainability, Equity, and Workforce Resilience in the Post-Pandemic Era
No full textTourism is one of the world’s most labour-intensive sectors, generating employment across hospitality, transport, retail, and cultural industries. Yet, despite its contributions to economic growth, tourism employment is often characterized by precarity, informality, and vulnerability to external shocks. This literature review synthesizes recent scholarship (2023–2025) on the relationship between tourism and labour markets, with particular attention to the disruptions and transformations triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. The review identifies three central themes: the quantity versus quality of jobs, the growing emphasis on sustainability and skills development, and persistent challenges of equity and inclusivity. Empirical studies from Europe, Asia, and beyond demonstrate that while tourism can stimulate local labour markets and generate spillover effects, employment outcomes are highly contingent upon regulatory frameworks, institutional strength, and regional economic structures. The discussion highlights tensions between flexibility and security in tourism employment, the underrepresentation of worker experiences, and the uneven geographical focus of current research. Identified gaps include the need for longitudinal and mixed-method studies, intersectional analyses of inclusivity, and investigations into the role of technology in reshaping the workforce. The paper concludes that tourism remains both a promise and a paradox for labour markets: it creates employment opportunities but also reproduces inequalities and vulnerabilities. Future research and policy must therefore focus on integrating tourism into broader labour market strategies, ensuring sustainable, inclusive, and resilient employment in the 21st century