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When Do Investors Buy Rental Properties? Insights From A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation of Housing Market Breakeven Vacancies
No full textReal estate is an attractive investment asset because it provides positive cash flows from rents and prospects of valuation gains. This paper studies the housing market breakeven vacancy, the extent to which an investor needs to rent a property to equalize its costs and benefits. As a metric in rental property investment screening, investors are more likely to buy when the breakeven vacancy is high such that the transaction has a promising prospect of breakeven or better. An original asset pricing model is developed to define the housing market breakeven vacancy. The theoretical model reveals that the breakeven vacancy is not static but nonlinearly determined by housing price growth, price-to-rent ratios, interest rates, operating expenses, and rental income taxes. While higher housing price growth, lower interest rates, and smaller operating expenses lead to larger breakeven vacancies, price-to-rent ratios and rental income taxes hold theoretically ambiguous effects. Furthermore, housing market breakeven vacancies are estimated using country-level data from 12 developed nations and regional data from 30 U.S. metropolitan areas. Empirical analysis suggests that declining interest rates and rising price-to-rent ratios have fueled the ascent of breakeven vacancies until 2022, while house price collapses around crises have led to slumps in breakeven vacancies. Lastly, the housing market breakeven vacancy estimates are highly correlated with actual investment home purchases in the United States at national and regional levels, highlighting the practical relevance of this metric for income-producing property investments
Banking Sector Development and FDI in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the SCO using a CCE-PMG Approach
No full textThis study investigates the relationship between domestic banking development and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in nine Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) economies, including Pakistan, India, Iran, China, Russia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, from 2000 to 2023. Using a panel econometric framework that combines the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator with Pesaran’s Common Correlated Effects (CCE) approach, the results show a positive long-run association between banking sector development and FDI. Granger causality analysis provides evidence of a unidirectional relationship, indicating that the development of the banking sector statistically precedes and is strongly associated with foreign investment. The positive long-run association highlights the crucial role of robust banking systems as domestic anchors for investment and as key components of regional economic resilience. The results yield two principal policy implications. First, strengthening domestic banking institutions is an important national strategy for enhancing attractiveness to foreign capital. Second, coordinated efforts among SCO countries are necessary to manage shared economic vulnerabilities and to improve the bloc’s collective investment appeal
بررسی تطبیقی مکتب های ساختارگرایی اقتصادی
No full textThis article conducts a comparative examination of the main schools of economic structuralism: old structuralism, ECLAC neo-structuralism, and New Structural Economics. Methodologically, old structuralism is grounded in the analysis of macroeconomic structures and the internal constraints of accumulation processes in peripheral economies, recommending active state intervention to reform production and trade structures as the basis of development policy. In contrast, ECLAC neo-structuralism, by critiquing the static and dogmatic tendencies of old structuralism, adopts a dynamic and hybrid approach that highlights the interaction between domestic structures and the global economic order, while emphasizing the institutional and technological dimensions of competitiveness in the world economy. At the policy level, this approach stresses the alignment of development strategies with external constraints and internal capacities of each country. New Structural Economics, drawing on modern development economics and integrating the structuralists’ tradition with neoclassical insights, underscores the connection between dynamic comparative advantage, smart industrial policies, and the establishment of institutional and infrastructural foundations for structural transformation. Through a comparative-analytical perspective, this study elucidates the methodological bases of all three structuralist schools in relation to their policy implications and shows that the evolution of structuralism can be understood as a transition from a static and interventionist paradigm toward a dynamic, institution-based, and context-sensitive framework in development policy. The findings indicate that understanding the trajectory of structuralism is not only crucial for theoretical rethinking in development economics but also constitutes a methodological and practical necessity for designing effective policies in developing economies—particularly in addressing the challenges of globalization, structural dependency, and industrial transition
The uneven benefits of conservation. A spatial analysis of how different protection regimes influence local development in Polish municipalities
No full textThe balance between environmental protection and socioeconomic development is a critical policy challenge. Conservation efforts may constrain local development but can also generate benefits beyond nature protection itself, with effects varying across protection regimes and spatial scales. Poland presents a compelling case to examine this trade-off, given its rapid economic growth and significant expansion of PAs in recent decades. This study assesses the relationship between nature protection regimes and local development across Polish municipalities from 2009 to 2022. Using spatial econometric modelling (Spatial Durbin Error Model), we analyse the direct and indirect effects of national parks, nature reserves, and Natura 2000 sites on three dimensions of local development: economic, social, and infrastructural. The most consistent positive effects are observed for economic development in municipalities with high share of national parks and Natura 2000 sites. The effects on infrastructure development are limited: only Natura 2000 sites show a positive direct effect, while negative indirect effects suggest regional competition for investment. The social impacts of protection are predominantly negative, especially for stricter protection regimes. Moreover, these effects extend beyond administrative boundaries, likely due to interlinked labour markets. These findings challenge the notion that conservation uniformly hinders economic development. Instead, they suggest that outcomes differ depending on the protection regime, and that benefits are unevenly distributed – supporting local economic growth while reinforcing social exclusion. The study underscores the need for policies that mitigate social costs and promote more just and integrated development under expanding conservation efforts
Choc exogène et stabilité macroéconomique
No full textThis article analyzes the impact of exogenous shocks on the macroeconomic stability of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), highlighting the country's high vulnerability due to its overreliance on mineral exports and limited economic diversification. Using a multi-sectoral econometric approach, the study reveals that external shocks such as global crises, pandemics, and commodity price fluctuations result in prolonged economic adjustments up to eight years. Key sectors like monetary aggregates and banking profitability are highly sensitive to international conditions, whereas public debt, largely concessional, shows limited responsiveness. The paper calls for ambitious structural reforms, including economic diversification, counter-cyclical policies, improved management of mining revenues, investment in human capital, and stronger governance to address institutional weaknesses and enhance the DRC’s economic resilience
Mechanism Design for Queueing with Capacity-Constrained Shifts
No full textWe study a single-server queue with fixed-length shifts where service of unit length jobs is non-pre-emptive; residual time shorter than one job, namely fractional part of , at boundaries is lost. Agents have constant private unit waiting costs. The efficient rule partitions agents into feasible shifts, orders shifts by the sum of members' costs, and orders agents within each shift by their costs. We show, by \citet{Holmstrom} and \citet{Suijs} type arguments, that only Vickrey-Clarke-Groves (VCG) transfers implement efficiency in dominant strategies. We then delineate when efficiency and DSIC implementation can be combined with budget balance (first-best mechanisms). If shifts are of unit-capacity ( is non-integral (so each shift can host at least two agents but leaves residual slack), no first-best mechanism exists. The proof uses a the cubical-array lemma of \citet{Walker} adapted to our setting
Оценка взаимосвязи критического импорта и промышленного развития региона на основе пространственного анализа панельных данных
No full textУсиливающиеся санкционные рестрикциии внешнего порядка и последующие за ними логистические разрывы в поставках импорта формируют риски устойчивого развития национальной и региональных экономических систем РФ. В этой связи крайне важной задачей становится разработка адаптированных моделей исследования перспектив экономического развития в условиях новой зарождающейся макроэкономической повестки. Целью работы является разработка методических подходов к идентификации критически значимых товарных номенклатур, импортируемых из-за рубежа, и разработка моделей, определяющих их влияние на перспективы промышленного развития регионов. В качестве гипотезы принимается допущение о существенном уровне влияния критического импорта регионов на устойчивость их развития в условиях санкционного давления. По результатам проведенного исследования выделены главные компоненты, определяющие содержательную среду и концептуальную основу для идентификации критического импорта региона; разработан методический инструментарий пространственного анализа взаимосвязи между критически значимыми товарными номенклатурами и экономическим ростом региональных экономических систем в условиях внешних ограничений. Установлено, применительно к регионам Приволжского федерального округа, что для моделирования зависимости объемов промышленного производства от объемов критического импорта (к которому была отнесена в рамках предложенного методического инструментария 21 товарная номенклатура) в наибольшей степени статистически значимо уравнение модели пространственных эффектов со случайными эффектами (RE). Доказано, что снижение поставок валового критического импорта на 1 млн. рублей способствует замедлению объемов промышленного производства в исследуемой региональной группе на 750 тыс. руб.
The increasing sanctions restrictions of the external order and the subsequent logistical gaps in the supply of imports pose risks to the sustainable development of the national and regional economic systems of the Russian Federation. In this regard, the development of adapted models for studying the prospects of economic development in the context of a new emerging macroeconomic agenda becomes an extremely important task. The aim of the work is to develop methodological approaches to the identification of critically important commodity nomenclatures imported from abroad, and to develop models that determine their impact on the prospects of industrial development of the regions. As a hypothesis, the assumption is made about the significant level of influence of critical imports of regions on the sustainability of their development under the conditions of sanctions pressure. Based on the results of the study, the main components that determine the content environment and the conceptual framework for identifying critical imports of the region are identified.; A methodological toolkit has been developed for spatial analysis of the relationship between critically important commodity nomenclatures and the economic growth of regional economic systems under external constraints
The Global Minimum Tax, Investment Incentives and Asymmetric Tax Competition
No full textThis paper investigates how the OECD's global minimum tax (GMT) affects multinational enterprises (MNEs) behavior and countries' corporate taxes. We consider both profit shifting and capital investment responses of the MNE in a formal model of tax competition between asymmetric countries. The GMT reduces the true tax rate differential and benefits the large country, while the revenue effect is generally ambiguous for the small country. In the short run where tax rates are fixed, due to tax deduction of the substance-based income exclusion (SBIE), a higher minimum rate exerts investment incentives but also incurs a larger revenue loss for the small country. We show that under high (low) profit shifting costs the former (latter) effect dominates so that the small country's revenue increases (decreases). In the long run where countries can adjust tax rates, the GMT reshapes the tax game and the competition pattern. In contrast to the existing literature, we reveal that the minimum rate binds the small country only if it is low. With the rise of the GMT rate, countries will undercut the minimum to boost real investments and collect top-up taxes. Our simulations show that introducing a GMT with moderate minimum rate raises both countries' revenues and the large country's welfare. However, it may reduce the small country's welfare if the welfare weight of private income is high
Unearthing potential in Malawi’s bamboo industry
No full textMalawi currently sits on an enormous bamboo industry capable of transforming the social and economic fabric of the nation. The bamboo industry would address the acute shortage of desks in public schools and beds in the boarding schools. Import substitution in bicycles and umbrellas would save the meagre forex resources. There is also a lot of export potential which could earn the scarce foreign currency exchange to contain the cost-push inflation as Malawi is a predominantly importing nation. There is however no political will to tap funds from international green financing schemes. Technical and vocational training education does not support this industry. The conservationists need to appreciate it. The time to act is now
The role of the local councils in the Malawi Vision 2063 through the lens of Medium Implementation Plan - MIP-1, the Malawi Secondary Cities Plan, the Special Economic Zones Act and the Real Estate Management Act
No full textThis study strived to analyse the level and extent of involving local government authorities in the development of the Malawi Secondary Cities Plan and its associated legislative instruments. The findings of the study demonstrate lack of coordination between the central and local government authorities leading to an obvious decimal or no progress at all. Local councils must take an active role through its association and demand more involvement for the betterment of the general citizenry