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A propósito das políticas públicas de coesão territorial em Portugal: Um contributo para a avaliação dos seus efeitos
No full textThe existence of significant and persistent regional disparities in a country with reduced territorial dimensions, such as Portugal, is a fact that demands reflection on its causes and effects. This reflection is particularly necessary since, as Portugal is a European Union (EU) country, public policies of territorial cohesion have been implemented, as part of the EU cohesion policy, the objective of which is precisely to reduce those regional disparities. Thus, based on the empirical evidence for the territorial inequalities that characterize Portugal, the (main) objective of this work is to draw attention to the need to complete the cycle of any public policy, through the evaluation of its effects
Saúde e bem-estar da população em Portugal: Um contributo à luz da Economia da Saúde
No full textThe level of well-being of a society, via the individuals that comprise it, obviously depends on their state of health. Thus, some well-being indicators/indices include health indicators/indices in their calculation. In fact, these well-being and health indexes must be complemented with others, of obvious relevance to the matter. This being the (main) objective of this work, the data corresponding to Portugal are analyzed: i) in the area of well-being, the indicators of happiness, satisfaction with life and, ii) in the area of health, the indicators of global burden of diseases, healthy life expectancy and self-perceived health status. This allows us to (better) understand the relationship between health and well-being in Portugal over the last few years
Mining Exploration Business Valuation Simulations with Global VMS Deposits Database
No full textThis paper presents an example of simulating financial economics for a mining exploration project based on stylized assumptions and real global data. The data comprise all the volcanogenic massive sulphide deposits of the world, according to a 2009 public report from the United States Geological Survey, which contains a database of grade and tonnage models for such deposits. The grade and tonnage parameters help estimate the gross metal value of the deposits, according to some simplifying assumptions. The paper further makes assumptions about the costs and benefits of finding each deposit in the global database. Then it calculates the distributions of economic returns for different approaches to the mining exploration business
A two-sector model of optimal growth in which labour is employed only in the industry of consumption goods: A complete characterization of equilibrium paths
No full textIn this paper, I develop a frictionless two-sector optimal growth model with endogenous labour supply in which the non-reproducible factor can be employed only in the production of consumption goods. From a theoretical point of view, I show that in this setting the optimal allocation of labour is constant over time, whereas its actual utilization relies on the availability of a convex technology. In parallel, a convex technology in the sector of investment goods is instead sufficient for the determinacy of meaningful equilibrium paths. Furthermore, calibrating the model to the US economy, I show that such a two-sector economy smooths the complementarity between the marginal propensities to consume and to save, and it also able to replicate the countercyclical (procyclical) pattern of the relative price of capital goods (real wages)
Estimación de la informalidad económica en Paraguay con el índice Tanzi–Feige. Periodo de análisis marzo 2020 a noviembre 2024
No full textThis study estimates a monthly index of economic informality for Paraguay using the currency-demand shadow economy framework (Tanzi–Feige). We specify a log-linear cash demand function that includes the real interest rate, the price level (CPI), economic activity (GDP), and tax pressure.Series are transformed (logs and first differences where appropriate) based on ADF/KPSS tests; we also control for seasonality and outliers to support robust inference. The model’s unexplained component is interpreted as a monetary proxy for informality and is normalized to construct the index. Unlike simple accounting ratios (e.g., currency/M2), this approach adjusts for income, prices, and the opportunity cost of holding cash, isolating deviations attributable to the shadow economy.
As an extension, we assessed including cooperative credit (CAC) to capture channels parallel to the formal banking system; we found no severe multicollinearity with tax pressure but (at most) moderate correlation, but we excluded CAC from the main specification due to heavy tails and heteroskedasticity. The results yield a parsimonious and stable index across sensitivity exercises (alternative specifications and diagnostic validation), and we discuss policy implications for tax design and payment traceability, together with limitations and avenues for future research
The Economics of Strategic Learning in Trade Wars: Evidence from the Trump -Xi Natural Experiment. -- Conditional Reciprocity and Behavioral Synchronization in US-China Trade Wars--
No full textHow do rival leaders learn to retaliate without trust or treaties? This paper exploits a rare “same leaders” natural experiment to trace strategic learning in bilateral economic conflict. We analyze two periods of the Trump–Xi trade war — “Trump–Xi 1.0” (2017 2020) and “Trump–Xi 2.0” (2025) — in order to isolate how experience shapes escalation in tariff retaliation. We introduce the Bilateral Learning Strength Index (BLSI). This novel metric captures two behavioral dimensions: conditional reciprocity—how predictably one side responds in kind—and behavioral synchronization—how closely rivals mirror each other’s timing and intensity across repeated trade actions.
Using data on 37,098 U.S.–China trade actions, we find that escalation in Trump–Xi 2.0 is substantially more constrained. Retaliatory responses are both more disciplined and far more synchronized, with a correlation coefficient of 0.884. These results suggest that through repeated interaction, adversarial leaders converge toward implicit rules of engagement—thresholds for retaliation that stabilize conflict dynamics even in settings devoid of formal treaties or mutual trust.
The framework has potential applications well beyond trade wars, including central bank coordination, oligopolistic competition, and international monetary spillovers—any environment in which actors engage repeatedly without binding agreements.
The BLSI also lays the groundwork for "Quantified Conflict Studies”, which could enable strategic forecasting, AI-assisted diplomacy, and real-time monitoring of conflict behavior in trust-deficient settings. By making strategic learning empirically measurable, this paper contributes to understanding not only how conflict escalates but also how it may evolve toward patterned stability rather than chaos
Evaluating the Impact of Public Health Policies on Life Expectancy Trends in European Countries
No full textLife expectancy in Europe is influenced not only by socioeconomic conditions and healthcare system performance but also by government-led public health policies. This literature review examines the role of policy interventions in shaping longevity across European populations, focusing on measures such as smoking bans, alcohol regulations, obesity prevention programs, vaccination campaigns, and health promotion initiatives. Evidence indicates that proactive and evidence-based policies, particularly when integrated with equitable healthcare access and supportive social structures, contribute to measurable improvements in life expectancy and reductions in preventable mortality. The review also highlights gaps in current research, including the need for long-term evaluations, analyses of policy interactions, and assessments of equity in outcomes. Findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and public health practitioners seeking to design interventions that maximize longevity and promote health equity across European countries
Prefix-Based Collection Auction: A Mechanism against Market Power and Collusion
No full textWe introduce a new collection auction mechanism for selling multiple identical
items to a single winner—the Prefix-Based Collection Auction. The auction restricts
the winner to a prefix of their bids and imposes a payment rule based on both an
internal prefix sum and an external second price. This dual structure offers strong
protection against both market power and bidder collusion, while maintaining intuitive and truthful bidding behavior. The mechanism is robust, simple to implement,
and has potential applications in art-collection markets, online advertising, and other
environments where bundle demand is critical
Regulatory sandboxes in the furniture industry: Challenges and opportunities
No full textThis report analyses the potential of regulatory sandboxes as an instrument to stimulate innovation in the Bulgarian furniture industry, with a focus on testing smart furniture. Through the use of SWOT analysis, the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats associated with introducing regulatory laboratories in the furniture sector are identified. Through a case study analysis, regions in Bulgaria with different levels of potential for the pilot implementation of regulatory sandboxes are suggested
A Theoretical Framework for Crude Oil Price Evolution: Insights from the Financial Crisis and Beyond
No full textThis study develops a theoretical model to understand the dynamics of crude oil prices, integrating Keynesian insights on imperfect competition and long-memory volatility through the FIGARCH framework. The model incorporates both demand and supply-side factors, with a particular focus on firm expectations and production costs, to explain price fluctuations. By calibrating the model to historical oil price data, we examine how demand dynamics, driven by expectations of future demand and current production costs, influence oil price movements. The study highlights the limitations of relying solely on demand as a predictor for price changes, particularly in the context of global disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results reveal that the exclusion of supply-side factors, including production costs and geopolitical risks, leads to significant discrepancies in price predictions, especially during periods of crisis. The findings emphasize the need for a more comprehensive approach to modeling oil prices, incorporating both demand and supply dynamics, to better capture market behavior during times of global shocks