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A two-sector model of optimal growth in which labour is employed only in the industry of investment goods: A complete characterization of equilibrium paths
No full textIn this paper, I develop a two-sector growth model with endogenous labour supply in which labour is employed only in the production of investment goods. From a theoretical point of view, I show that no matter the shape of the technology to produce consumption goods, a convex technology in the sector of investment goods is necessary and sufficient for a meaningful stationary solution and the determinacy of equilibrium trajectories. In addition, from a numerical perspective, I show that a calibrated version of the model relaxes the complementarity between the propensity to consume and to save and it is also able to provide a rationale for the procyclical patterns of the relative price of capital goods and the real wage
Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) with Fat-tailed Events
No full textThis paper provides estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve accounting for the unexpected large shocks such as Covid-19. The recent pandemic distorted the estimates of the output gap derived using the regular trend cycle decomposition of GDP (HP Filter, BP Filter, Kalman Filter). We propose a modified unobserved components model (UCM) by introducing an additional Student-t distributed irregular component in the trend cycle decomposition of GDP, which successfully isolates transitory shocks like COVID-19 from trend and cycle estimates. We also construct a model-based measure of inflation expectations that captures adaptive learning from a long inflation history and real-time updating during the pandemic. For India, we find a stable linear NKPC. Our results demonstrate that accounting for fat-tailed events is crucial for obtaining reliable Phillips curve estimates in emerging markets
The asymmetric impact of tourism on economic growth: empirical evidence from Madagascar
No full textThis paper examines the asymmetric relationship between tourism development and economic growth in Madagascar using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model and annual data spanning 1984-2024. Our analysis reveals a statistically significant, long-run asymmetric impact. Negative changes in tourist arrivals exert a substantially stronger adverse effect on economic growth than the positive effect of equivalent increases. Furthermore, we investigate both symmetric and asymmetric causal linkages between tourism and economic growth. The symmetric causality analysis detects neither bidirectional nor unidirectional causality. This result, therefore, provides support for the neutrality hypothesis in Madagascar. However, the asymmetric causality test uncovers unidirectional effects running from economic growth to tourism. Specifically, positive shocks to economic growth Granger-cause subsequent negative shocks to tourism, while negative shocks to economic growth Granger-cause subsequent positive shocks to tourism. This pattern, which is consistent with the asymmetric conservation hypothesis, along with our empirical findings, collectively cautions against treating tourism as a primary engine of economic growth in Madagascar. Instead, our results highlight tourism's vulnerability to macroeconomic and financial instability and underscore the need for policies that stabilize the broader economy to ensure sustained tourism performance
Uma Breve Interpretação das Diferentes Reações de Japão e China, a Partir do Século XIX, ao Desafio do Ocidente
No full textWhat makes a country grow and develop while another languishes in stagnation or regression? What kinds of decisions are made that lead to this divergence? This article seeks to illustrate this question through two examples of very close nations: China and Japan. It aims to compare the largely successful example of Japan with the failure of the former Chinese empire to withstand Western pressures, which became stronger following the attainment of industrial and military supremacy after the British Industrial Revolution and its imitation and subsequent surpassing by other European countries and the USA. This failure would only be reversed in the Chinese case in the 20th century, starting with the Revolution of 1949 and, more decisively, after the economic reforms initiated in 1978. The contrast between China’s ineffective response to the Western challenge and Japan’s effective and incredibly rapid response will be explained in the article, along with some of the reasons for these different reactions. It will be demonstrated how Japan undertook something entirely different by changing the Emperor and initiating the so-called Meiji Revolution, in place of the Tokugawa Era (1603-1867). This also resulted in Japan’s modern industrialization occurring nearly a century earlier than that of its Asian neighbors, including China
Mining Revenues and Institutional Weakness: The Political Economy of the DRC’s 0.3% Community Development Fund
No full textThis paper analyzes the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC) legal requirement that mining companies allocate 0.3 percent of annual turnover to local community development. Drawing on the 2025 audit of forty-four community development funds by the Court of Auditors, the study reveals systematic underreporting of revenues, delayed or missing payments, weak financial management, and the absence of sanctions between 2018 and 2023. Using institutional economics and principal–agent theory, it shows how asymmetric information, misaligned incentives, and political interference undermine the system’s effectiveness. Comparative evidence from Peru’s canon minero and Ghana’s Mineral Development Fund demonstrates that success depends less on legal design than on credible verification, coordination, and community oversight. The paper proposes reforms to strengthen enforcement, transparency, and accountability in the DRC’s mining governance framework
Municipal waste management in the post-pandemic period: Deficiencies and risks revealed by public external audit—A focus on Constanța county (Romania)
No full textBackground and aim: The article investigates the systemic deficiencies and risks in Romania’s municipal waste management system during the post-pandemic period, focusing on the role of external public audit missions conducted by the Romanian Court of Accounts. The main objective is to assess the risk of infringement procedures against Romania due to persistent non-compliance with EU environmental directives. Scope and limitations: The research concentrates on the period 2015–2021, with particular emphasis on the case of Constanța County, and is limited to the analysis of official audit reports and regulatory frameworks. Methods: The study employs a qualitative methodology based on document analysis, comparative evaluation of legal frameworks, and synthesis of audit findings, with emphasis on compliance, infrastructure, and institutional performance. Results: Findings highlight significant shortcomings: delayed closure of non-compliant landfills, insufficient implementation of selective collection and recycling, lack of a functional electronic traceability system, and weak monitoring by central and local authorities. Constanța County illustrates critical infrastructural and contractual deficiencies that compromise EU compliance targets. Conclusions: Romania remains at high risk of EU sanctions due to poor waste management performance, limited strategic coordination, and underuse of European funding. Originality: The article provides an integrated perspective by linking external audit findings to broader systemic vulnerabilities in the post-pandemic context. Practical implications: The study offers actionable recommendations for improving compliance, strengthening administrative capacity, and ensuring alignment with EU circular economy goals, thus supporting policymakers and practitioners in sustainable waste governance
Beyond Borders: How Economic Shocks Propagate Through Space and Networks
No full textThis paper develops a unified theoretical and empirical framework for analyzing treatment effects that propagate through both spatial proximity and network connections. Building on the continuous functional approach in \citet{kikuchi2024dynamical} and the Navier-Stokes foundation in \citet{kikuchi2024navier}, I introduce network channels as continuous internal degrees of freedom, deriving both spatial diffusion and network contagion from common first principles rooted in conservation laws and stochastic processes. The framework resolves three fundamental challenges in modern econometrics: how spatial and network effects interact (the mixed effect), how treatment effects evolve in general equilibrium, and how network structure affects system fragility.
I show that the mixed spatial-network effect emerges naturally at second order in perturbation theory, creating synergistic amplification when geographic proximity and network similarity align. The theoretical analysis yields three main contributions. First, I derive explicit expressions for the mixed effect functional, showing it equals the mutual information between spatial and network coordinates—a purely information-theoretic measure with no free parameters. Second, I extend the analysis to general equilibrium, proving that endogenous price and employment adjustments amplify partial equilibrium estimates by factors between 1.8 and 2.5 depending on market structure. Third, I connect network structure to system fragility through entropy production rates, providing operational measures of how consolidation affects shock dissipation speeds and cascade probabilities.
The empirical application uses county-level wage data (2018-2023) to analyze minimum wage spillovers across 3,142 U.S. counties and 274 industry classifications. Four main findings emerge. First, the mixed spatial-network effect accounts for 40 percent of total treatment propagation, with point estimate 0.043 (s.e. 0.008), statistically significant and economically large. This implies retail workers in Nevada counties near the California border experience wage increases 43 percent larger than the sum of pure spatial spillover (from proximity alone) and pure network effect (from industry connections) would predict. Second, spatial decay parameters increase from 0.01 per mile for pure geographic spillovers to 0.02 when network effects are included, demonstrating that networks concentrate rather than disperse spatial impacts. Third, general equilibrium amplification factors range from 1.8 (dispersed markets) to 2.5 (concentrated markets), implying substantial bias in partial equilibrium policy evaluation. Fourth, entropy-based fragility measures predict out-of-sample shock propagation with , outperforming standard network centrality metrics ().
These findings have direct policy implications. Minimum wage policies should account for network amplification: optimal state-level minimum wages are 15-20 percent lower when accounting for general equilibrium feedbacks through supply chains and labor mobility networks. Financial regulation should monitor entropy production rates as early warning indicators: systems approaching critical fragility thresholds (entropy production declining by more than 30 percent) require preemptive intervention before cascades materialize. Regional development policies should leverage spatial-network synergies: infrastructure investments yield highest returns in regions with strong geographic clustering and dense economic networks
Fiscalidad sucesoria y desigualdad en Europa: efectos sociales y económicos de los modelos impositivos sobre herencias
No full textInheritance taxation has become a key yet controversial element of European fiscal policy. National systems that once seemed stable are now facing new pressures from increased cross-border mobility, demographic change, and rising wealth inequality. Despite decades of integration, Europe still lacks a harmonized framework for taxing wealth transfers, resulting in wide disparities in tax rates, exemptions, and the treatment of heirs. This study provides a comparative analysis of inheritance tax legislation across Northern, Southern, Central, and Eastern Europe, examining five key dimensions: tax rates and thresholds, exemptions and deductions, progressivity, differentiation in family relationship, and redistributive outcomes. Drawing on OECD and EU data, and recent reforms, the analysis highlights regional patterns and underlying philosophies. The results suggest that a unified European approach remains remote, yet regional contrasts reveal the profound influence of divergent legal traditions and welfare ideologies on wealth transfer taxation
Exploring the relationship among environmental identity, eco-emotions, perceived nature restorativeness, and psychological adaptation to climate change
No full textThe climate crisis profoundly impacts individuals’ behavioral, cognitive, and emotional responses, threatening well-being and undermining efforts toward climate adaptation. Psychological insights are therefore crucial for the design of effective policies and the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The present study investigates the psychological processes involved in coping with climate-related threats and examines the interrelationships among environmental identity, eco-emotions, perceived nature restorativeness, and psychological adaptation to climate change. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Greece resulting in a sample of 552 participants. Statistical analyses were performed using covariance-based structural equation modeling (CB-SEM), complemented by reliability and validity assessments. Results indicated that eco-emotions significantly influence psychological adaptation to climate change; environmental identity impacts eco-emotions and perceived restorativeness of nature, as well as directly affecting psychological adaptation; and perceived restorativeness of nature influences eco-emotions. These findings underscore the importance of fostering environmental identity and promoting restorative nature experiences as pathways to enhance psychological adaptation to climate change, offering actionable insights for policymakers and practitioners addressing climate resilience
Education, Human Capital, and Cultural Contexts in Economic Transformation Processes
No full textThis paper explores the complex interconnections between education,
human capital formation, and cultural contexts in shaping economic
transformation processes. Building on both classical and contemporary
theories of human capital, the study argues that education is not only
a driver of productivity and innovation but also a social institution
deeply embedded in cultural and institutional frameworks. Using a
mixed-methods approach, the analysis combines cross-country statistical
data with comparative case studies of Finland, South Korea, Vietnam,
and Ghana to examine how cultural values and governance structures
mediate the outcomes of educational investment. The results reveal that
the effectiveness of education in driving transformation depends on its
alignment with societal values and institutional capacity. Countries
where education systems reflect shared cultural norms—such as
discipline, equality, and respect for knowledge—demonstrate higher
returns in innovation and structural diversification. Conversely,
nations where formal education remains detached from local contexts
experience limited developmental impact, even when resources are
substantial. The study concludes that education-led transformation
requires cultural adaptability, institutional integrity, and long-term
policy coherence. By integrating economic, cultural, and institutional
dimensions, this research contributes to a more comprehensive
understanding of how education functions as both a catalyst for growth
and a mechanism of social cohesion in the process of economic
transformation