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Harrodian Instability and Induced Technical Change
No full textThis paper presents a demand-led growth model augmented with induced technical change to address the two Harrod's problems in growth theory. Building on recent developments in the supermultiplier literature, we investigate how both Harrodian instability problems can be resolved through two complementary mechanisms: (1) autonomous, non-capacity-creating demand components growing at an exogenous rate, and (2) endogenous technical change responsive to income
distribution. While existing supermultiplier models show how autonomous expenditures stabilize demand-led growth, we integrate induced technical change into the determination of the natural rate of growth.
The model achieves twin stabilization through the interplay of two stabilizing mechanisms: the supermultiplier and induced technical change. On the one hand, demand shocks are absorbed via adjustments in the investment share, allowing capital accumulation to align with the exogenously determined growth rate of autonomous expenditures. On the other hand, labor market imbalances trigger productivity adjustments that reconcile natural and warranted growth through changes in the wage share. This dual adjustment mechanism allows the system to sustain normal capacity utilization and stable employment rates, while preserving demand-led growth outcomes.
The results suggest that incorporating induced technical change enhances the supermultiplier's capacity to address both of Harrod's instability problems within a unified demand-led framework
Climate finance challenges and investment gaps: the case of Madagascar
No full textMadagascar, highly vulnerable to climate change, faces a significant climate finance deficit, securing only USD 385 million in 2022 against the USD 13.4 billion needed by 2030, as outlined in its Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC2). This study examines the barriers limiting Madagascar’s access to global climate finance, including weak institutional and technical capacities, a global bias favoring mitigation over adaptation, and heavy reliance on multilateral donors like the World Bank, which contributed 55\% of 2022 funding. Analysis of financial flows from 2015–2022 reveals volatile funding patterns, with peaks driven by large-scale projects and troughs reflecting institutional constraints. The energy sector dominates allocations, marginalizing critical adaptation needs in agriculture and water management. To bridge this gap, the paper proposes strengthening institutional capacity through centralized coordination, advocating for equitable global finance at forums like COP, and scaling innovative mechanisms such as local-currency green bonds and partnerships with PROGREEN and PROBLUE. Enhanced regulatory frameworks and transparency are critical to attract private investment and ensure equitable resource distribution. These systemic reforms, combining domestic action and international cooperation, are essential for Madagascar to achieve resilient, sustainable development amidst escalating climate risks
Government Subsidy for Student Loans, Human Capital Accumulation and Economic Development
No full textDevising effective economic policies that promote investment in human capital is essential for economic development. Government subsidy for student loans is often discussed as one of the various policy instruments that support human capital accumulation. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between a government's subsidy rate for student loans and economic growth from a theoretical perspective. This study also considers how changes in life expectancy and the labor force population affect economic growth. To address these issues, we construct an overlapping-generations model with uncertain lifetime. Our model suggests that increasing the government's subsidy rate for student loans promotes economic growth. Moreover, there is a positive relationship between improved life expectancy among individuals with sufficient investment in human capital and economic growth. Furthermore, a decline in the labor force population decreases economic growth, even when negative peer effects are predominant in human capital formation
Réexamen du lien entre formation et rendement agricole : cas des cacaoculteurs du grand sud au Cameroun
No full textThis article aims to assess the effect of farmer training on cocoa farm yields in grand south Cameroon. The data comes from surveys conducted in 2019 by the National Cocoa and Coffee Board in Cameroon (NCCB), covering 13,601 cocoa farmers. Using a bivariate Probit model, the results show that agricultural training increases the probability of high yields by 8.4% and raises the likelihood of attending further training. Similarly, owning a motorcycle increases the probability of high yields by 4.2%. On the other hand, education level, intensive fertilizer use, and higher cocoa quality reduce the likelihood of strong yields. Additionally, training boosts the probability of high yields more for women (6.9%) than for men (4.8%). Likewise, educated women have a higher probability of strong yields (5.1%) compared to educated men (3.1%). Finally, being single increases the likelihood of high yields for men by 4.1% but has no effect on women. Based on these findings, the study recommends improving agricultural training for cocoa farmers through producer organizations (OPAs) and facilitating farmers' mobility by establishing collective transport systems to more remote plantations
Nécessaire contribution des industries culturelles et créatives au développement économique du Togo
No full textThis study aims to shed light on the contribution of cultural and creative industries, especially the film and audiovisual sector, to the economic development process in Togo. To achieve this objective, the present research primarily employed a mixed methodological approach, combining qualitative and quantitative methods. Additionally, it focused on United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) data related to the creative economy (film, audiovisual, etc.). Our results highlight that cultural and creative industries have the potential to play a significant role in Togo's economic growth, provided they receive adequate support. Therefore, it is imperative to continue and intensify efforts to support and develop cultural and creative industries
Praxis Core: A Multi-Layered Structural Intelligence Engine for Foreign Exchange Execution Under Entropic Regime Shifts
No full textForeign exchange markets are not merely venues for speculative profit—they are systemic transmitters of macroeconomic stability and instability. Volatile currency regimes can exacerbate trade imbalances, distort capital flows, and trigger policy interventions that carry long-term consequences for national economies. Yet, much of the existing algorithmic trading infrastructure remains tethered to predictive fragility, relying on static indicators that collapse under regime shifts and volatility clustering.
Praxis Core introduces a structural intelligence framework that reframes FX execution as an adaptive, state-aware process directly aligned with macroeconomic stability objectives. By integrating a four-state Markov-Switching GARCH model—Bayesian-smoothed to stabilize rare transitions—with dual volatility and orderflow memory processes, Praxis Core detects and responds to regime mutations before they cascade into macro-level dislocations.
Execution is anchored not to arbitrary price triggers, but to structural market topology—liquidity-depth contours, volatility surface curvature, and macro-sentiment alignment—ensuring trades are positioned where they absorb, rather than amplify, systemic stress. Risk is adaptively modulated using non-Gaussian tail modeling, regime-weighted sizing, and memory-aware throttling, preserving capital during high-impact macro events such as central bank interventions or geopolitical shocks.
With a compliance-grade cryptographic audit layer, atomic-time synchronization, and fully transparent decision logic, Praxis Core offers a verifiable, institution-ready mechanism that bridges microstructure precision with macroeconomic responsibility. In doing so, it positions FX execution not only as a profit engine but as a stabilizing force—capable of mitigating spillover volatility that would otherwise propagate through global trade and investment channels
Evaluating seasonal weather risks on cereal yield distributions in southern India
No full textClimate change poses significant threats to Indian agriculture, markedly through its impact on crop yields. While most existing research focuses on climate-sensitive crops like rice, relatively climate-resilient cereals such as sorghum, maize and finger and pearl millets have received less attention. This study uses district-level data from four southern states over 26 years to conduct a moment-based analysis of the effects of various climatic and non-climatic factors on these crop yields. The research offers nuanced insights into how different weather patterns influence crop yields, yield variability (risk) and downside yield risks. The study disaggregates climate variables into seasonal effects, showing that winter maximum temperatures positively affect the yields of maize and sorghum but negatively impact rice. In contrast, summer maximum temperatures generally reduce yields across all crops except finger millet, which thrives due to its heat tolerance. Monsoon rainfall boosts the yields of pearl millet, although excessive rainfall during the monsoon season increases downside risks for maize and rice. Evapotranspiration shows mixed effects, while wind speed tends to negatively affect yields, especially during the summer and monsoon seasons. Additionally, the study finds that excessive irrigation can harm rainfed crops like maize and pearl millet, while technological advancements such as HYV seeds and fertilisers positively impact yields. These findings underscore the urgent need to promote climate-resilient crop varieties, restructure irrigation subsidies and provide targeted support to smallholder farmers to enhance food security in the face of increasingly erratic seasonal conditions
On Unitization as a Way of Addressing Water Pollution in the Ganges in Kanpur, India
No full textWe study water pollution in the Ganges River caused by tanneries in Kanpur, India. We analyze the merits of a recent claim that unitizing or merging the polluting tanneries can improve water quality in the Ganges. We first describe the n≥2 polluting tanneries in Kanpur as a Cournot oligopoly and derive the equilibrium output of leather and profits. Second, we permit m<n tanneries to merge and determine the cost function, when the m tanneries can use their production facilities, and there are no other efficiency gains from unitization. Third, we examine when the m-tannery unitization is profitable to the unitized entity and to the non-unitized tanneries. Fourth, we discuss our conclusions about the profitability of the unitized and the non-unitized tanneries and comment on what our findings mean for improved water quality in the Ganges. Finally, we discuss some key regional dimensions of the Ganges water pollution problem caused by tanneries in Kanpur
The Inequality Trap: Why Sub-Saharan Africa Struggles to Escape Poverty
No full textThe issue of poverty in Africa is well-known and widely researched. Around a third of the world's poorest people live in Africa. Evidence from more recent years suggests that inequality may be an even greater challenge in Africa than in other developing regions. High levels of poverty and inequality persist in Africa despite it being one of the fastest-growing regions of the last decade. In particular, six of the world's ten fastestgrowing economies between 2001 and 2010 were in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Initial inequality reduces the ability of growth to reduce poverty, and even more so if inequality rises during the growth process. Although income inequality fell by 4.3% between 1990 and 2009, Africa remains the second most unequal region globally, after Latin America and the Caribbean. Inequality not only dampens the poverty-reducing impact of growth and lowers the growth rate, but also hollows out the middle class, encourages corruption and rent-seeking, increases crime and violence, undermines social stability and precludes sustained growth. Growth trends in sub-Saharan Africa are not significantly different to those of other developing countries that have fallen into a poverty trap. The combination of endemic poverty, high inequality and low growth is a major obstacle to poverty reduction and overall socioeconomic development in much of Africa. Multidimensional inequality is deeply entrenched in much of Africa and exhibits vertical and horizontal dimensions that hinder human development. The roots of inequality lie in the colonial past and have been reinforced by institutions that limited access and were established by the colonisers and maintained by generations of African leaders since then. Attention should also be paid to the diachronic dimensions of inequality, especially how inequality changes over individuals' lifetimes and its effect on intergenerational mobility. As effective democratic practices take firmer root on the continent, it can be expected that pressure for general and inclusive social redistribution will increase. Providing social protection contributes to reducing poverty and inequality in Africa. Additionally, rising income inequality contributes to increased CO₂ emissions. Furthermore, an increase in poverty has a detrimental effect on environmental pollution in sub-Saharan African countries. Over half of adults infected with HIV in Africa are female, yet poverty and social structures still prevent many women from protecting themselves. Current strategies to change HIV-related behaviours continue to fail women and girls in Africa
Innovation and Bank Capital Adequacy: An Empirical Assessment across European Economies
No full textThis paper explores the connection between innovation dynamics and the Bank Capital to Asset Ratio (CAR) in the context of 39 European nations from 2018 to 2025. With a multidimensional panel data approach that incorporates a combination of static and dynamic panel models and machine learning algorithms—specifically Decision Tree Regression—the study conducts a data-oriented analysis of the impact of various types of innovation on the resilience of the banking sector. The study differentiates innovation inputs (e.g., trademark applications, innovator share), outputs (e.g., new-to-marketing and new-to-firm product sales), and productivity factors and factors permitting a finely grained comprehension of innovation inputs and financial consequences. Cluster analysis is applied to classify countries into innovation performance groups and is followed by regression and variable importance calculations. The study identifies that process innovations executed by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are positively linked with CAR and that information is associated with greater financial stability, whereas innovation outputs and productivity indicators at times relate inversely and register corresponding financial stress in the face of innovation-driven transitions. Further, pre-stage innovation inputs may raise banks' uncertainty and register systematic risk escalation. The model of a Decision Tree also reveals the sales of innovative products and labor productivity to be the most robust determinants of CAR with varied directional impacts between them. These results document the innovation-finance nexus complexity and refute the supposition that innovation equally strengthens economic prudence. The study contributes new knowledge to the literature through the combination of the assessment of financial prudency with the type of innovation and provides clear policy directions for the synchronization of innovation strategies with macroprudency aims across the European region