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State-Contingent Optimality: A Principle for Portfolio Selection
No full textThis paper explores a normative framework for portfolio selection, the Principle of State-Contingent Optimality (SCO), recasting the classic challenge of finding a single, robust portfolio as a problem in the geometry of distributions. The objective is formulated as minimizing the expected divergence between a portfolio's realized return distribution and a state-dependent, ideal target distribution across all possible market conditions. By employing a metric like the Wasserstein distance, this approach moves beyond simple moments to compare the full shape and character of outcomes, aiming to identify a strategy that is holistically resilient to an uncertain future.
We acknowledge that the principle, in its purest form, rests on profound idealizations: a Platonic target distribution, a knowable state-space, and the validity of ensemble averaging. Rather than treating these as insurmountable barriers, we frame them as explicit signposts for a structured research program. The framework is therefore offered as a theoretical lens, one that cleanly separates the philosophical act of defining investment goals from the mathematical task of achieving them. In doing so, our hope is to provide a more principled way to critique existing methods and guide future inquiry toward truly robust financial solutions
The FREEDOM Framework: Linking Multi-Alignment Diplomacy to Macroeconomic Resilience in India
No full textThis paper introduces the FREEDOM Framework—a strategic macroeconomic model that integrates India’s multi-alignment diplomacy with Milton Friedman’s monetarist principles. It argues that diplomatic capital, defined as the trust and credibility accumulated through diverse international partnerships, functions as a stabilizing economic resource. By mapping seven key dimensions—Foreign Exchange stability, Resource security, Export competitiveness, Expectations management, Deficit control, Open markets, and Monetary discipline—the framework demonstrates how India’s foreign policy choices directly influence macroeconomic outcomes such as inflation control, exchange rate stability, and growth resilience.
Drawing on Friedman’s emphasis on expectations and credibility, the paper shows that India’s diplomatic engagements act as transmission channels for macroeconomic stability. Strategic energy diplomacy, diversified trade agreements, and multilateral credibility are shown to anchor inflation expectations, attract investment, and buffer external shocks. The FREEDOM compass metaphor positions diplomacy as a directional tool for navigating global volatility, reinforcing that foreign policy is not peripheral but central to economic strategy.
Ultimately, the study offers a multidimensional lens for policymakers, suggesting that sustaining macroeconomic resilience in India requires not only internal discipline but also the strategic deployment of diplomatic capital as a modern complement to monetary polic
The Natural Rate of Unemployment and the NAIRU: Theoretical Foundations, Empirical Evidence, and Policy Debates
No full textThis paper explores the concepts of the natural rate of unemployment and the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). It discusses their theoretical foundations, empirical estimation, and policy implications. While both concepts have been central to macroeconomic theory and policymaking, they remain controversial. The analysis draws on historical developments, empirical evidence, and contemporary debates to evaluate the relevance of these concepts in modern economies
Воспроизводство, Циклы и Критика СНС: Переосмысление Проблемы Воспроизводства
No full textThe monograph is devoted to a theoretical rethinking of the processes of simple, expanded, and contracted reproduction in a market economy and to a critique of the methodological foundations of the System of National Accounts (SNA). It shows that the inclusion of depreciation in gross product, as established in the SNA, is a methodological error that distorts macroeconomic indicators. As an alternative, the study substantiates the necessity of calculating gross product on the basis of net capital formation. On the basis of Smith’s Dogma and a reconstruction of K. Marx’s schemes, the conditions of equivalent exchange are formulated with clarifications: rent is treated as an independent form of income, profit is divided into consumed and saved parts, and depreciation is interpreted as redistribution rather than newly created value. Special attention is given to the problem of unfinished capital goods production. The key result of the research is the application of the Symmetric Model, which extends the principle of interaction between the two departments in Marx’s schemes to the entire set of branches, including households. The model is built on the methodological foundations of second-order dialectics, second-order cybernetics, and social constructivism. It helps explain the nature of cycles and crises as immanent forms of the reproduction process under the conditions of spontaneous self-regulation of a competitive economy. A separate chapter is devoted to reproduction under monopolization and financialization. It shows that the concentration of profit and the redistribution of resources in favor of the financial sector undermine the circular organization of the economy, distort the equivalence of exchange, and reinforce structural imbalances. Monopolization, inequality, and financialization are considered as factors that drive the market economy into systemic crisis. The concluding part of the monograph discusses the possibilities of mathematical formalization of reproduction processes. The Symmetric Model provides a foundation for constructing dynamic systems that describe interactions between sectors and factors of production. This enables stability analysis, the identification of endogenous sources of cycles, and the design of regulatory methods based on simulation modeling. The Appendices include AI Commentaries, which demonstrate new possibilities for analyzing and interpreting complex economic problems with the assistance of AI. This format combines rigorous theoretical argumentation with elements of additional verification and methodological validation provided by AI.
The work is intended for researchers and practitioners in economic theory, macroeconomics, and institutional analysis, as well as all those interested in reproduction, crises, and the reform of the SNA
Environmental Complexity and Respiratory Health: A Data-Driven Exploration Across European Regions
No full textThis paper examines the environmental and infrastructure determinants of respiratory disease mortality (TRD) across European nation-states through an original combination of econometric, machine learning, clustering, and network-based approaches. The primary scientific inquiry is how structural environmental variables, such as land use, energy mix, sanitation, and climatic stress, co-interact to affect respiratory mortality across regions. Although prior literature has addressed individual environmental predictors in singleton settings, this paper fills an integral gap by using a multi-method, systems-level analysis that accounts for interdependencies as well as contextual variability. The statistical analysis draws on panel data covering several years and nation-states using fixed effects regressions with robust standard errors for evaluating the effects of variables such as agricultural land use (AGRL), access to electricity (ELEC), renewable energy (RENE), freshwater withdrawals (WTRW), cooling degree days (CDD), and sanitation (SANS). We employ cluster analysis and density-based methodology to identify spatial and environmental groupings, while machine learning regressions—specifically, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN)—are utilized for predictive modeling and evaluating feature importance. Lastly, network analysis identifies the structural connections between variables, including influence metrics and directional weights. We obtain the following results: Consistently, across all regressions, AGRL, WTRW, and SANS feature importantly when determining the effect for TRD. Consistently across all networks, influencer metrics identify AGRL, WTRW, and SANS as key influencers. Consistently across all models, the best-performing predictive regression identifies the nonlinear (polynomial or non-monotone), context-sensitive nature of the effects. Consistent with the network results, the influencer metrics suggest strong connections between variables, with a particular emphasis on the importance of holistic environmental health approaches. Combining the disparate yet complementary methodological tools, the paper provides robust, understandable, yet policy-relevant insights into the environmental complexity driving respiratory health outcomes across Europe
Balancing Workshare and Profitability within the Modern Universal Growth Theory (MUGT) Framework
No full textThis paper examines the dynamic behavior of the capital-labor-mix parameter α in CES production functions within the framework of the Modern Universal Growth Theory (MUGT). While traditional growth models don’t show openly the dynamic behavior of α, we show that under marginal profit optimization, α has to adapt continuously to remain on a balanced growth path (BGP). This adjustment leads to a redefinition of α at each basepoint—denoted αₘ—highlighting its role as a stabilizing variable. In practice, αₘ appears remarkably stable, suggesting the presence of market or institutional mechanisms that counterbalance the change of the capital-labor-mix α by technical progress.
Growth, without counterbalance of the capital-labor-mix α and with elasticity of substitution σ≠1, always leads in the long run to a labor-only or capital-only production function.
We further explore whether policy should focus on stabilizing workshare ws or on maintaining profitability r
Съдебната практика по чл. 10, ал. 1 от Кодекса за социално осигуряване и загубване на качеството „осигурено лице“
No full textРезюме: Научното изследване представя противоречивата съдебна практика в периода 2014–2025 г. относно правомощието на контролните органи на Националния осигурителен институт да издават задължителни предписания за заличаване на данни по чл. 5, ал. 4, т. 1 от Кодекса за социално осигуряване, както и относно тълкуването и прилагането на чл. 10, ал. 1 от Кодекса за социално осигуряване. Въз основа на доктриналния анализ са направени две предложения за образуване на тълкувателни дела и за приемане на тълкувателни решения от Общото събрание на колегиите на Върховния административен съд.
Abstract: The scientific study presents the contradictory case law in the period 2014–2025 regarding the authority of the control bodies of the National Social Security Institute to issue mandatory instructions for deletion of data under Art. 5, para. 4, item 1 of the Social Security Code, as well as on the interpretation and application of Art. 10, para. 1 of the Social Security Code. Based on the doctrinal analysis, two proposals have been made for initiating interpretative cases and for adopting interpretative decisions by the General Assembly of the Colleges of the Supreme Administrative Court
The Reformulation of OxyContin and Availability of Substance Use Treatment Facilities in the United States
No full textI examine how the substance use treatment sector responded to the abuse-deterrent reformulation of OxyContin, which contributed to a shift from prescription opioid misuse to heroin and synthetic opioids. First, I document a national increase in substance use treatment facilities after the reformulation and a shift toward outpatient-only care. Medication-assisted treatment with buprenorphine and naltrexone grew strongly throughout the first and second waves of the opioid crisis, while opioid treatment programs providing methadone increased relatively modestly after the reformulation. To isolate the role of exposure to OxyContin’s reformulation, I use variation in states’ pre-reformulation OxyContin misuse rates in a continuous difference-in-differences design. I find that pre-reformulation misuse rates are associated with larger increases in substance use treatment facilities after the reformulation, particularly outpatient-only facilities, with limited evidence misuse rates the availability of medication-assisted treatment services or inpatient care across states. Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act was associated with more substance use treatment facilities and this effect was stronger in states with higher misuse rates, while the expansion of substance use treatment facilities was lower in states with certificate-of-need laws, highlighting the importance of insurance and regulatory barriers in treatment access. Back-of-the envelope estimates suggest the additional SUT facilities averted 2,700-7,800 overdose deaths between 2011 and 2019, corresponding to a value of $36-102 billion
Socioeconomic, Educational, and Policy Determinants of CO₂ Emissions in Europe: A Comprehensive Review
No full textEnvironmental sustainability in Europe is influenced by a complex interplay of socioeconomic development, education, and public policy interventions. This literature review examines how income levels, urbanization, industrial activity, and educational attainment affect CO₂ emissions, with a focus on the role of primary and secondary education in shaping environmental behaviors. Evidence indicates that well-designed policy measures—including emissions regulations, renewable energy incentives, urban planning reforms, and environmental education programs—can mitigate environmental pressures, particularly when integrated with socioeconomic and educational factors. The review also identifies gaps in long-term policy evaluation, the interaction of multiple determinants, and disparities across regions and populations. Findings provide insights for policymakers and researchers seeking to develop integrated strategies that reduce CO₂ emissions, promote sustainable development, and ensure equitable environmental outcomes across European countries
Inflation Persistence and Involuntary Unemployment in Pakistan: A Keynesian Econometric Study
No full textThis paper develops a stochastic Keynesian model linking inflation, unemployment, and GDP. Inflation follows a fractional Brownian motion, capturing persistent shocks, while a temporal convolutional network forecasts conditional paths, allowing machine learning to account for nonlinear interactions and long-memory effects. Unemployment responds conditionally to inflation thresholds, permitting involuntary joblessness, while GDP depends on both variables, reflecting aggregate demand and labor market frictions. The model is applied to Pakistan, simulating macroeconomic dynamics under alternative policy scenarios. We demonstrate that sustained growth is possible even under persistent inflation, reinforcing the empirical relevance of Keynesian theory in contemporary macroeconomic analysis and highlighting the value of machine learning for policy evaluation