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Makers and Takers: The Economics of the Kalshi Prediction Market
No full textSince 2021, Kalshi has operated as the only federally licensed prediction market in the United States. Using transaction-level data on over 300,000 contracts, we provide the first systematic evidence on its pricing. Kalshi’s contract prices are informative and improve in accuracy as markets approach closing, but they display a clear favorite–longshot bias: low-price contracts win far less often than required to break even, while high-price contracts win more often and yield small positive returns. We interpret these patterns with a simple framework that reflects Kalshi’s quote-driven microstructure. Makers—relatively well-informed traders who post offers—seek positive expected returns but may be slightly over-optimistic, while Takers accept these offers. The model predicts distinct patterns of favorite–longshot bias for Makers and Takers, and the data confirm these predictions
Agreeing to Disagree: The Economics of Betting Exchanges
No full textBetting exchanges match people to take opposite sides of a bet. We present a model of a betting exchange in which participants disagree about outcome probabilities but are, on average, correct. Traders maximize subjective expected profits and equilibrium emerges from a simple matching process. The model predicts those who post quotes (Makers) will earn higher returns than those who accept them (Takers) and that loss rates for Takers will rise as the probability of their accepted bet winning falls. Using a large sample of bets on soccer from Betfair Exchange, we implement a transaction-level empirical strategy that identifies Maker and Taker sides of each trade. We show that pre-match and early in-play behavior aligns closely with the model’s predictions. However, as matches progress, behavior shifts: longshot bets generate large, systematic losses even for liquidity providers, and profits emerge for those who accept offers on favorites
Introducing a new measure of inflation pressure for South Africa
No full textInflation dispersion affects the extent to which inflation harms welfare. As a result, inflation dispersion bears on the optimal inflation target and assessment of the appropriate stance of policy at any particular point in time. In this policy brief, we propose a new measure of inflation dispersion for South Africa, drawing on hundreds of goods and services categories to summarise inflation pressure in South Africa. We show that inflation dispersion describes divergences in inflation from the inflation target. Our analysis suggests that a lower average inflation level may not automatically imply lower inflation dispersion in South Africa, making it harder to anchor inflation expectations at a lower inflation target. This means that reforms to address persistently high administered price inflation and monetary policy communication focused on what policy must do to address inertial price and wage settings are particularly important
Socioeconomic Determinants and Tuberculosis Burden: A Panel Data Analysis of Indonesian Provinces
No full textThe threat of tuberculosis (TB) persists globally, with 10 million individuals affected by the disease in 2018, resulting in 1.5 million deaths. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Indonesia ranks third in the world for TB cases. It is estimated that 845,000 individuals in Indonesia were afflicted with TB, yet only 68 percent of these cases were identified and treated in 2018. This study evaluated the impact of socioeconomic factors on the prevalence of TB in 34 Indonesian provinces from to 2005-2018 period. The findings indicate that demographic factors, such as population size, population density, and number of impoverished individuals, are positively and significantly correlated with the incidence of TB. Conversely, GRDP per capita, the number of healthcare workers, and literacy rates were negatively and significantly correlated with the incidence of TB. From the findings of this study, it can be concluded that population factors have influenced the increasing number of TB cases in Indonesia. Therefore, controlling population growth, high population density, and poverty must be the government’s focus to reduce new TB cases through family planning programs, transmigration programs to areas with low population density, and increased social assistance for the poor and vulnerable to improve their standard of living. Furthermore, the health infrastructure budget must be increased, the economy must remain competitive and secure, and investment in human capital must be continuously increased
From Lignite to Low-Carbon: Greece’s Journey in the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI)
No full textMonitoring national climate performance is fundamental for translating the Paris Agreement’s global objectives into actionable national policy. This study examines Greece’s progress through the lens of the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), an internationally recognized tool assessing mitigation efforts across four pillars: Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions, Renewable Energy, Energy Use, and Climate Policy. Drawing on data from CCPI (2006–2025), IPCC assessments, and national policy documents, the analysis situates Greece’s climate trajectory within the broader frameworks of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Results indicate that Greece’s CCPI ranking improved from 35th in 2018 to 22nd in 2025, reflecting significant advances in renewable energy deployment and energy efficiency, yet persistent weaknesses in policy implementation and governance capacity. The country’s emissions have declined by approximately 38% since 2005, driven by a rapid lignite phase-out and expansion of solar and wind power. However, gaps remain in transport, buildings, and industrial decarbonization, limiting full alignment with a 1.5°C-compatible pathway. The findings highlight the interplay between technical progress and institutional performance, showing that Greece’s transition is constrained less by technological potential than by fragmented governance, delayed enforcement, and uneven adaptation capacity. Strengthening policy coherence, sectoral accountability, and just transition mechanisms is therefore essential for sustaining CCPI improvements and achieving IPCC- and SDG-consistent outcomes. The study concludes that integrating CCPI metrics into national climate governance can enhance transparency, accelerate policy delivery, and position Greece as a regional model for integrated climate action in the Eastern Mediterranean
Effect of cash conversion cycle on financial performance of listed consumer goods firms in Nigeria
No full textThis study examined the effect of cash conversion
cycle on financial performance of listed consumer
goods firms in Nigeria. The specific objectives were
toascertain the effect of accounts receivable
turnover ratio on return on assets of listed consumer
goods firms in Nigeria, to determine the effect of
account payable turnover ratio on return on assets of
listed consumer goods firms in Nigeria and to assess
the effect of inventory turnover ratio on return on
assets of listed consumer goods firms in Nigeria
The study adopted an ex-post facto research design
and utilized a panel data of one hundred and fifty
(150) pooled observations gathered from fifteen (15)
listed consumer goods firms in Nigeria over a ten
(10)-year period (2014-2023). It also employed a
panel multiple regression technique to analyze the
data via E-views 10.0 statistical package. The study
findings revealed that account receivable turnover
ratio has a significant positive (Coeff.
=0.0778{0.0012}) effect on return on assets of listed
consumer goods firms in Nigeria while account
payable turnover ratio has a non-significant negative
(Coeff. =-0.0590{0.7897}) effect on return on assets
of listed consumer goods firms in Nigeria. It also
revealed that inventory turnover ratio has a
significant positive (Coeff. =1.5166{0.0472}) effect
on return on assets of listed consumer goods firms in
Nigeria. It was thus concluded that cash conversion
has a significant effect on financial performance of
listed consumer goods firms in Nigeria. The
recommendations made included that listed
consumer goods firms in Nigeria should prioritize
efficient accounts receivable management by
implementing effective credit policies, credit monitoring, and debt collection strategies for
enhanced financial performance
Структурный анализ критического импорта и его влияние на экономическое развитие региона
No full textУсиливающиеся процессы деглобализации, включающие в себя, в том числе, наращивание механизмов реализации внешнего давления как инструмент обеспечения глобальной конкурентоспособности отдельных стран, в значительной степени возвышают актуальность вопроса изучения адаптивных направлений реализации политики импортозамещения. К важнейшим из них необходимо отнести комплексный анализ импортозависимости с позиции определения наиболее критических групп товарных номенклатур, поставляемых в регионы. Данный подход позволит не только определить степень уязвимости региональных экономических систем к ограничениям поставок импорта критически значимой продукции, но и разработать инструментарий, позволяющий оценить влияние локализации импорта на устойчивость экономического развития регионов.
Решению этой задачи и посвящена настоящая статья, целью которой является разработка методического инструментария к идентификации критически значимых товарных номенклатур, импортируемых из-за рубежа, и разработка моделей, определяющих взаимосвязь критического импорта и экономического роста регионов.
Методическую основу исследования определяет инструментарий идентификации критического импорта в рамках трехступенчатой его аутентификации: объемы импорта, доля его участия в создании добавленной стоимости конечного продукта региона, страновая принадлежность. Полученные объемно-стоимостные параметры формируют основу для проведения пространственного анализа панельных данных, определяющего влияние критического импорта на перспективы экономического развития.
Объектом исследования выступают субъекты Север-Западного федерального округа РФ.
Результатом исследования являются выявленные товарные группы, формирующие каркас критического импорта для регионов СЗФО, а также степень их влияния на промышленный рост субъектов Север-Западного федерального округа.
The increasing processes of deglobalization, which include, among other things, increasing the mechanisms for implementing external pressure as a tool for ensuring the global competitiveness of individual countries, significantly raise the urgency of studying adaptive directions for the implementation of import substitution policy.This article is devoted to solving this problem, the purpose of which is to develop methodological tools for identifying critically important commodity nomenclatures imported from abroad, and to develop models that determine the relationship between critical imports and regional economic growth. The methodological basis of the study is determined by the tools for identifying critical imports within the framework of its three-stage authentication: import volumes, the share of its participation in creating added value of the final product of the region, and country affiliation. The result of the study is the identified commodity groups that form the framework of critical imports for the regions of the Northwestern Federal District, as well as the degree of their influence on the industrial growth of the subjects of the Northwestern Federal District
Economic Resilience and Vulnerability: Concepts and Indices
No full textThis paper examines the concepts and indices of economic resilience and vulnerability. The central notion in clarifying both resilience and vulnerability is that of an adverse shock. If a shock does not alter the growth path of an economy or cause a recession, the economy is considered “resilient.” Resilience refers to an economy’s ability to return to its pre-shock growth trajectory. A resilient economy, after experiencing a shock, resumes its long-term growth path. Endogenous growth can strengthen economic resilience, and resilient economies tend to experience sustainable growth. Macroeconomic stability and effective institutions are two principal indicators of economic resilience. Resilience stems largely from economic policymaking, while vulnerability is related to the inherent structural characteristics of an economy that expose it to adverse shocks. Export concentration, dependence on strategic imports and external financing, as well as geographical vulnerability, constitute the main indicators of economic vulnerability. The greater the capacity to respond to shocks, the lower the vulnerability. The paper explores the indices of economic resilience, including Briguglio, Centennial group and Oxford FM Global. In vulnerability indices, the paper discusses the Briguglio vulnerability index, Guillamount and OECD indices
Left-Wing Political Strength, Inclusive Institutions, and the Evolution of Capitalist Systems
No full textThis paper examines how left-wing political strength shapes the evolution of capitalist systems through the lens of income compositional inequality (IFC). Using LIS microdata for nearly 40 countries from 1978–2022, I construct an unbalanced panel of IFC and estimate two-way fixed-effects models with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, complemented by dynamic panel GMM and a fuzzy RDD around close elections. Results show that stronger left representation reduces IFC and pushes economies toward liberal capitalism; a 10-percentage-point increase in left strength lowers IFC by about 0.0079—roughly 7.5% of the sample mean. Political checks and balances attenuate this distributive effect, while rule-of-law and property-rights institutions amplify it. Channel analysis based on the pseudo-Gini of capital indicates that the main pathway operates via reductions in capital inequality. The findings highlight that “inclusive institutions” are internally heterogeneous and interact with partisan power, offering a more granular account of distributive dynamics within democracies
Towards sustainable housing market: A simple distributional analysis of Australia
No full textClimate change increasingly affects housing markets, yet distributional impacts are rarely examined beyond mean-based analyses. Using quantile regression on over 500,000 Australian property transactions (2015–2020), this study shows that affordable housing is disproportionately devalued by bushfire and flood risks, while resilience factors such as altitude and elevated coastal proximity command premiums in higher-end markets. These results reveal a “vulnerability trap” for low-income households and a “resilience divide” favoring affluent buyers, underscoring the need for distribution-sensitive climate adaptation housing policies