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Economic causation nexus and the minerals industry
No full textThis paper analyses the causality nexus between the minerals industry and selected macroeconomic indicators in South Africa. This is achieved by augmenting a Taylor1993 rule type central bank monetary policy reaction function with selected macroeconomic indicators and comparing the causality between the minerals industry and these macroeconomic indicators. The results provide evidence of a statistically significant unidirectional causality from commodity prices, foreign exchange rate and geopolitical risk to output of the minerals industry. The results have also shown a unidirectional causality from output of the minerals industry and government expenditure, or fiscal policy stance. The results further show a bidirectional causality between output of the minerals industry and monetary policy interest rate, foreign direct investment, financial market, business confidence, market uncertainty as well as external, or foreign, demand. The results, however, do not show the absence of causality, or causation, between output of the minerals industry and the selected macroeconomic indicators. Macroeconomic indicators are important for economic activity, hence policymakers should monitor developments in macroeconomic events to support economic growth as well as the minerals industry
Contractual and Governing Structures in Bulgarian Farming
No full textThere has been an unprecedented development in the governance of the supply of resources, services, innovations, and marketing of products of Bulgarian farms over the last two decades. However, due to insufficient (statistical, official, etc.) information and traditional inadequate (Neoclassical Economics, Agent Theory, etc.) approaches to analysis, there is no complete knowledge of the dominant forms and driving factors of governance in the main functional areas of farm management. This article incorporates the interdisciplinary New Institutional Economics framework and identifies the structure of governance and contractual modes used by Bulgarian farms. It is based on original and representative data collected through a survey with the managers of typical farms of different types and locations. The contemporary structure, factors and evolution of market, contract, internal, collective and hybrid modes of governance used by country's farms in the supply of natural, material, biological, financial and human resources, short-term assets, services, innovations, risk management, marketing of farm produce and services, and provision of ecosystem services, are all specified. A comparative study of the governance structures before the EU accession of the country is also made. The systemic application of the incorporated approach is needed, but it requires the collection of a new type of (micro)economic data on important characteristics of agricultural agents, different forms of governance of farm activities and relations, and critical dimensions and costs of transactions
Leading with Generosity and Responsibility through Reward Allocation Decisions in Teams
No full textLeadership generosity and responsibility are crucial elements in organizational management, particularly when leaders allocate rewards among team members. Through theoretical modeling and experimental validation, we examine leaders' allocation decisions at different stages of a project---before it begins, after completion but before outcomes are realized, and after outcomes are known---and how their decisions depend on their personality traits. Using a preregistered randomized controlled experiment with 520 participants, we examine two key leadership behaviors: generous commitment (taking a smaller share for oneself before the project starts) and responsibility (reducing one's share after poor performance), as well as how personal traits shape these behavioral styles. Our theoretical framework predicts that more altruistic leaders will demonstrate stronger generous commitment while less altruistic leaders, counterintuitively, will demonstrate greater responsibility following negative outcomes. The empirical findings largely support these predictions. Female leaders show more generosity, while both genders demonstrate responsibility by reducing self-allocation following negative outcomes, albeit through different psychological mechanisms. Personality traits, especially altruism, as well as other psychological factors, moderate these behaviors. Our study finds that personality traits that are often associated with "strong" leadership tend not to demonstrate responsibility. These findings provide insights into leadership decision-making, with implications for organizational design and leadership development
Monetary policy frameworks from 1999 to 2003: the less it changes the less it stays the same
No full textThis paper, prepared as a background chapter for an edited book, considers the changes in monetary policy frameworks (MPFs) over the first quarter of the 21st century. Section 1 presents the overall global and regional trends in monetary policy frameworks from 1999 to 2023. That analysis shows that the distribution of MPFs has changed rather less in recent years. However, the paper then turns to analyse in more detail the important changes within the two most widespread MPFs, inflation targeting and loosely structured discretion, over the period. Section 2 examines the rise in inflation targeting and the changes made within that framework by a number of mainly advanced economies, which have put more emphasis on output and employment but retained the primacy of the quantitative inflation target. Section 3 examines the changes in the monetary policy instruments commonly used within the loosely structured discretion framework, which have involved substantial improvements in effectiveness over time, typically associated with developments in money and bond markets, which facilitate switches to alternative MPFs. Overall, the paper highlights what amounts to a useful refocus from the choice of monetary policy framework to the operation of monetary policy
Artificial intelligence application and research in accounting, finance, economics, business, and management
No full textArtificial intelligence is a branch of computer science that develop intelligent machines to perform human tasks. Recently, there is growing interest in AI applications in professions that have many processes that can be easily automated. There is widespread optimism that AI systems can lead to new innovations or improve existing processes. This study focuses on some applications of artificial intelligence in the accounting, finance, economics, business, and management profession. The study provides a basic understanding of how AI will be useful in the accounting, finance, economics, business and management professions. The study also offered some insights into the risks posed by the use of artificial intelligence
Understanding Cross-State Variations in Medicaid Enrollment During and After the COVID-19 Pandemic
No full textDue to the implementation and unwinding of a ``continuous coverage requirement'', the COVID-19 pandemic gave rise to the most dramatic changes in Medicaid enrollments in the program's history. Nationwide, enrollments rose by 23 million individuals from February 2020 through March 2023, then declined by roughly 15 million by late 2024. Notably, changes in per capita enrollments varied dramatically across the country, with several states experiencing net declines and several states seeing their enrollments rise, on net, by more than 5 percent of their populations. Through a mix of descriptive and causal analyses, we explore several hypotheses regarding the possible causes of these variations. We find that a wide range of provisions designed to ease the frictions of the continuous coverage provision's winding down have surprisingly little predictive power. Similarly, we find that variations in federal aid to state and local governments has no predictive power, suggesting that liquidity constraints had little influence on states' management of Medicaid enrollments during this period. Variations in political preferences, as proxied by Trump's 2016 vote share, have modest predictive power within the unwinding episode. Finally, states that enacted Medicaid expansions during the pandemic experienced relatively large net gains in enrollments. The baseline generosity of states' eligibility thresholds also predicts relatively large run-ups and net increases in enrollments
Claudio Napoleoni e la critica del presente
No full textThis paper revisits Claudio Napoleoni’s critical legacy by engaging closely with Riccardo Bellofiore’s recent monograph and the broader corpus of Napoleoni’s writings. After arguing for Napoleoni’s status as a “contemporary classic,” it reconstructs his model of “pure” versus “historical” capitalism, showing how he locates rent extraction, alienation, and unproductive consumption at the heart of Italian economic dynamics. Building on his anthropological dialectic, the paper highlights Napoleoni’s vision of human emancipation as liberation “from” and “of” work—a shift from an economistic to a time autonomy paradigm. It then interrogates his ongoing self critique and methodological “back and forth,” which prevented theoretical closure but fueled an open ended critical practice. Turning to Bellofiore’s reinterpretation of Marx’s critique of political economy, the study questions the implicit use of counterfactuals in his comparative method and examines his meta theory of crisis centered on the falling rate of profit and its counter tendencies. Finally, the paper illustrates how integrating non Marxist social science—especially recent contributions on discretionary time, institutional design, and democratic enterprise governance—can enrich and update Napoleoni’s radical questions. In so doing, it proposes a truly interdisciplinary critique of present day capitalism
Stability of multiple cartels in differentiated markets
No full textWe characterize stable market structures under price-competition in differentiated markets when multiple cartels may form. Market structures without cartelisation are never stable and always involve multiple small cartels, and, but for one knife-edge case, only involves multiple small cartels. Combined with the result that the unique stable market structure under quantity-competition is also characterised by multiple small cartels, this underscores the importance of considering the possibility of multiple cartels in competition policy. Comparing stable market structures under price and quantity competition, we find that prices and profits are higher under price-competition whenever the market is sufficiently differentiated or sufficiently concentrated
Market-Based Portfolio Variance
No full textThe variance measures the portfolio risks the investors are taking. The investor, who holds his portfolio and doesn’t trade his shares, at the current time can use the time series of the market trades that were made during the averaging interval with the securities of his portfolio and assess the current return, variance, and hence the current risks of his portfolio. We show how the time series of trades with the securities of the portfolio determine the time series of trades with the portfolio as a single market security. The time series of trades with the portfolio determine its return and variance in the same form as the time series of trades with securities determine their returns and variances. The description of any portfolio and any single market security is equal. The time series of the portfolio trades define the decomposition of the portfolio variance by its securities, which is a quadratic form in the variables of relative amounts invested into securities. Its coefficients themselves are quadratic forms in the variables of relative numbers of shares of its securities. If one assumes that the volumes of all consecutive deals with each security are constant, the decomposition of the portfolio variance coincides with Markowitz’s (1952) variance, which ignores the effects of random trade volumes. The use of the variance that accounts for the randomness of trade volumes could help majors like BlackRock, JP Morgan, and the U.S. Fed to adjust their models, like Aladdin and Azimov, to the reality of random markets
Probabilistic Shift-Share Analysis of World Industrial Patterns, 1995-2019
No full textThis paper revisits Shift-Share and Constant Market Share Analysis by introducing a maximum entropy prior to replace ad hoc weighting schemes, assuming a uniform distribution of sectors. The resulting decomposition is additive and exact over discrete time periods, eliminating the need for a residual term. Both composition and competitiveness effects are derived from deviations relative to neutral expected growth.
Applying the method to global manufacturing data (1995–2019) for 76 countries at current and constant prices, the analysis distinguishes developed and developing countries trajectories. Ad-justments for home bias and demand structure deepen the insight. Compared with traditional approaches, this probabilistic SSA confirms competitiveness as the main driver of industrial growth, with methodological implications for structural analysis and policy