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Wartime monetary policy: Monetary policy options to adopt during war
No full textWars occur frequently in the world today. Wars cause economic distortions, and they lead to adverse human, economic and social consequences. Monetary policy actions can be used to cushion the adverse effects of war on the economy. Monetary authorities can respond to war by developing wartime monetary policy frameworks to control inflation and to support the war economy throughout the war. This article explores some monetary policy options that central banks can adopt during war. They include increase interest rate at the start of the war to control inflation expectations, hold interest rate at the same level when there is high uncertainty around war, decrease interest rate when war is battering the economy on multiple fronts, decrease cash reserve requirements on bank deposits during war as was observed in Russia, keep liquidity ratio fixed or increase it during war as was seen in Ukraine, the sale of government securities during war should be considered as well as and the unpopular and least advisable option of printing money to increase money supply during war. The recommended wartime monetary policy options in the study are useful to economists, central banks and governments who are facing war in their countries
“Greening” Education for Climate Resilience: Strategies, Implementation, and Curriculum Integration
No full textThe increasing urgency of the climate crisis has necessitated a transformative approach to education that prepares learners to act as agents of sustainable change. This working paper synthesizes UNESCO's Greening Curriculum Guidance with contemporary academic insights to propose a comprehensive framework for embedding climate change education into formal and non-formal learning environments. Drawing on theoretical models, empirical evidence, and international policy frameworks, the paper articulates strategies for greening the curriculum, outlines actionable steps for institutional implementation, and analyzes pedagogical methods that cultivate cognitive, socio-emotional, and behavioral competencies. The role of intersectionality, justice, and indigenous knowledge systems is emphasized to ensure an inclusive and context-sensitive transition toward climate-resilient education systems
Fuel diversification among firms and common ownership
No full textWe develop a duopoly model that incorporates fuel diversification, resulting in ex post cost asymmetry between firms. We theoretically examine how common ownership influences welfare. Our findings indicate that welfare decreases (increases) with the degree of common ownership when ex post cost heterogeneity due to fuel diversification is small (large). Furthermore, we identify a potential U-shaped relationship between the degree of common ownership and welfare, an insight not previously documented in the literature.
In addition, we demonstrate that common ownership promotes fuel diversification, which may further enhance welfare
Macroeconomic outcomes of trade facilitation reform: a productivity growth-based analysis in some selected African countries
No full textThe article investigates the contribution of trade facilitation to productivity growth in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. We include four trade facilitation indicators (i.e., physical infrastructure, ICT, business and regulatory environment, border, and transport efficiency) as explanatory factors for productivity growth measured by both total factor productivity and labor productivity. The empirical evidence is based on both Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (POLS) and the Instrumental Variable Two-Stage Least squares (IV-2SLS) in a sample of 29 SSA countries over the period 2004-2017. The main results from the study show that trade facilitation contributes positively and significantly to total factor productivity as well as labor productivity in SSA. Based on this finding, SSA countries need to improve border procedures as well as the business and regulatory environment to generate substantial productivity gains and boost the competitiveness of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), given the job creation potential of MSMEs
A three-way dynamic causality analysis on domestic credit risk, external debt, and external debt servicing and its implications on debt sustainability initiatives: Evidence from Zambia.
No full textThis paper presents a mathematical economic model to analyze a three-way dynamic causality analysis on commercial banks credit risk, external debt and external debt servicing and its implications on debt sustainability initiatives in Zambia. The results showed a unidirectional causal relationship between external debt and commercial banks' credit risk using a VECM with a consistent 1.659 percent increase in external debt as a proportion of GDP followed a 1 percent increase in banks' credit risk, indicating a vicious cycle. Additionally, we found that for every percentage increase in debt service as a share of GDP, there is a 0.9 percent increase in credit risk. The repayment of foreign debt also had a positive effect on the external debt. Based on this, we concluded that although debt treatment procedures have paved the way for a recovery path, a focus on reducing bank credit risk is necessary to keep the positive impacts of these activities from being undermined by a repo effect
Balancing Act or Policy Pitfall? The Effects of Central Bank Dual Mandates
No full textCentral banks are often tasked with steering economies toward goals that exceed price stability, but the consequences of broader mandates are understudied. This paper focuses the case of central banks that have the explicit mandate of promoting both price stability and full employment (“dual mandates”). We explain how dual mandate adop- tion generates institutional constraints that increase inflation without delivering meaningful gains in employment. We test our theory using original data on central bank mandates in 176 countries from 1985 to 2023. The empirical analysis addresses challenges of staggered adoption and treatment heterogeneity through entropy balancing, and generalized synthetic control approaches focusing on countries with clean adoption patterns. We find that dual mandate adoption raises inflation by about eight percentage points relative to inflation-only mandates, with effects persisting over time. In contrast, we do not find systematic long-term employment benefits. These results suggest that broader central bank mandates may weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy and increase the risk of politicization. This has im- plications for debates over institutional design, delegation, and the limits of technocratic governance
Negative rates, demographics and fiscal policy: Heterogeneous tilting taxation in the Euro Area
No full textThis paper estimates time-varying tax-tilting parameters for eleven EMU member states from 1970 to 2024 using a panel time-varying parameter state-space model that extends the traditional tax-smoothing framework to capture both common and country-specific dynamics. Core countries such as Austria, Belgium, Germany, the
Netherlands, France, Ireland, and Finland display a more prudent fiscal stance, while peripheral countries, including Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain, shift taxation toward the future, generating current deficits. These patterns are driven by differences between government discounting of future revenues and market rates, and are further influenced by structural factors such as aging populations and unemployment. Periods of negative real interest rates relax fiscal constraints, encouraging governments to delay tax adjustments. The results underscore the need to reduce cross-country fiscal heterogeneity to strengthen long-term sustainability and advance fiscal integration in the Euro Area
The Effect of Aggregation on Seasonal Cointegration in Mixed Frequency data
No full textEconomic time series often show a strong persistency as well as seasonal variations that are appropri
ately modelled using seasonal unit root models in addition to deterministic components. In many cases
di¤erent variables within a vector time series are driven by identical common trends and cycles leading to
cointegration.
This paper investigates the consequences for the properties of vector processes when some components
are aggregated in time. This may involve moving from a fully observed system that is seasonally cointegrated
at a frequency !k = 2 k=S with k = 1;:::;(S 1)=2 where S is the number of seasons per year, to a system
with time series sampled at high sampling rate (HSR) observed for S seasons per year and time series with
low sampling rate (LSR) observed SA seasons per year, such that SA = S=Q and Q is an integer.
The (partial) aggregation has implications on the unit root and cointegration properties: Aggregation
potentially shifts the frequency of the unit roots. This may lead to an aliasing e¤ect wherein common cycles
to di¤erent unit roots become aligned and cannot be separated any more, in turn impacting cointegrating
relations.
This paper uses the triangular systems representations in the bivariate case as well as the state space
framework (in a general setting) to investigate the e¤ect of aggregation on the unit root properties of
multivariate time series.
The main results indicate under which assumptions and in which situations the analysis of the integration
and cointegration properties of time series with mixed sampling rate relates to the same properties of the
underyling data generating process. The results also discuss full aggregation of all components. These results
lead to the proposal of an e¤ective econometric strategy for detecting cointegration at the various sampling
rates, as is demonstrated in a simulation exercise. Finally an empirical application with monthly data of
arrivals and departures of the Mallorca Airport, also illustrate the ndings collected in the present work
From Technology Adoption to Strategic Coherence: The Role of Digitalization in Industrial Growth in Developing Countries
No full textDigitalization has emerged as a transformative force in modern industrial development, reshaping operational models, innovation practices, and competitive structures. This study investigates the impact of digitalization on the financial performance of industrial growth. Drawing on the resource-based view, dynamic capabilities theory, and transaction cost economics, the study develops a comprehensive framework linking digital strategy alignment, digital capabilities, technology adoption, innovation culture, and external support to industrial financial performance. Using panel data regression analysis on industrial firms, the results reveal that digital strategy alignment consistently exerts the strongest positive influence across measures of return on equity, return on assets, and asset turnover. Digital technology adoption and innovation culture show mixed effects, enhancing equity returns and operational efficiency while imposing short-term costs on asset-based performance. Digital capabilities display both transitional inefficiencies and long-term benefits, while external support emerges as statistically insignificant. These findings emphasize that the financial gains of digitalization are contingent on strategic coherence, organizational readiness, and cultural transformation rather than on technology adoption alone. The study contributes to both theory and practice by highlighting that firms must view digitalization as a holistic transformation process to overcome short-term paradoxes and achieve sustainable growth, while policymakers should focus on creating supportive ecosystems that strengthen firm-level capacities
Tourism Workforce Trends in Europe: Employment Patterns, Regulation, and Recovery
No full textTourism is a major contributor to European employment, yet the sector is characterized by part-time work, seasonal fluctuations, informal employment, and gender disparities. This paper synthesizes recent empirical evidence and numerical data from Eurostat, OECD, and national case studies in Poland, Greece, and Italy to examine post-pandemic tourism labour market trends. Findings show that while tourism creates substantial employment—including spillover jobs in retail and transport—vulnerabilities persist, particularly for informal and female workers. For example, in Greece, 12–15% of tourism jobs are informal, while in Poland, employment dropped 28% during the COVID-19 pandemic, later recovering to ~90% of pre-pandemic levels. The analysis also highlights the role of labour market regulations, workforce sustainability, and skills development in shaping employment outcomes. Policy recommendations focus on balancing flexibility with security, promoting gender equity, supporting workforce development, and utilizing data-driven monitoring. The paper concludes that tourism employment can evolve from a source of vulnerability into a resilient, inclusive, and sustainable sector, provided that regulatory, social, and training interventions are effectively implemented