Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting
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Commodity Price Prediction with TAR and Markov-Switching Models. Evidence from Gold and Cocoa Markets
No full textAccurate forecasting of commodity prices remains a crucial challenge due to inherent market volatility and regime-dependent behaviour. This study examines the predictive performance of two nonlinear time series models, the Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model and the Markov Switching Model (MSM), in modeling and forecasting the prices of gold and cocoa. These commodities exhibit complex dynamics characterized by abrupt structural breaks and asymmetric responses to economic shocks, features that are inadequately captured by linear models. The TAR model is employed to detect endogenous threshold effects, while the MSM accounts for unobservable regime shifts through a probabilistic framework. Monthly average prices of International Cocoa (US /fine ounce) spanning the period from January 2003 to December 2022 (a 20-year window) were subjected to unit root testing, transformation, and differencing to ensure stationarity prior to modeling. The models’ forecasting accuracy was evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Results indicate that both TAR and MSM significantly improve out-of-sample forecasts by capturing both abrupt and smooth nonlinear transitions. Notably, the gold market showed stronger regime-switching dynamics, while cocoa prices exhibited clearer threshold-based behaviour. MSM model outperforms the TAR model in forecasting gold prices, as it records lower values for both MAE and RMSE, indicating higher predictive accuracy. For Cocoa, TAR slightly outperforms MSM in both MAE and RMSE, though the difference is minimal. Thus, both models perform comparably for Cocoa, with a marginal edge for TAR. Model suitability is observed to be commodity-specific. These findings underscore the utility of regime-sensitive models in commodity price forecasting and offer valuable insights for market participants and policy decision-makers operating in volatile economic environments
The Impact of Sustainability Reporting on the Profitability Performance of Private Placement Companies
No full textThis study aims to test the relationship between sustainability reporting and profitability performance of private equity companies. This study used a sample of 118 private placement companies in Malaysia from 2018 to 2024. It utilized secondary data from a database and annual reports by using OLS regression. The results showed a positive and significant link between sustainability reporting and profitability performance of private equity companies, especially in light of increasing environmental and economic challenges. The sustainability is a strategic instrument that make on the improving firm image, decreasing costs, and supporting the customer loyalty, which can positively influence profitability performance. Community performance and good governance improve customer confidence and investor, leading on the improved revenue. Sustainability positively influences profitability performance when applied as portion of an included, long-term strategy. Organizations are recommended to participate sustainability principles into their daily processes to confirm sustainable development and balance profitability
The Influence of Digital Communication and Mobile Banking Services on Customer Satisfaction at Bank Mandiri
No full textThis study aims to examine the influence of digital communication and mobile banking services on customer satisfaction, with Bank Mandiri customers in Palembang City serving as the research object. Utilizing a quantitative approach, data were gathered through a questionnaire distributed to 100 respondents classified within the productive age group, selected using a stratified random sampling technique, the data analysis employed multiple linear regression with the support of the SPSS software. According to the findings, mobile banking services do not exhibit partial influence on customer satisfaction, but digital communication does have a significant partial impact. Nevertheless, when examined concurrently, mobile banking and digital communication services show a substantial influence on customer satisfaction, accounting for 28.4% of the total variance. Comparatively, factors outside the research model are responsible for the remaining 71.6%. These results suggest that, although mobile banking services may not directly affect customer satisfaction, integrating them with efficient digital communication can enhance the overall client experience at Bank Mandiri in Palembang City. This study implies that banks should not rely solely on technological features but must also strengthen their digital communication strategies to build trust and satisfaction. This study therefore shows that communication is as essential as innovation in achieving customer loyalty in the digital banking era
Role of Mobile Savings Services in Accelerating Financial Inclusion in Nsiika Town Council, Buhweju District, Uganda
No full textFinancial inclusion is essential for all individuals in the community reflecting affordability, accessibility and reliability of financial services particularly in Nsiika town council, Buhweju district, Uganda where the levels of financial inclusion are still very low with only 16% of the mature population keeping their funds at official deposit taking organizations and now with introduction of mobile money services, it is considered a major factor. The main purpose of the study is to investigate the relationship between mobile money services and financial inclusion. The study was guided by two objectives: to examine the extent to which mobile loans and mobile transfer services influence the financial inclusion of the Nsiika community. The study adopted three theories: dissatisfaction theory, credit rationing theory and transaction theory. A target population of 1020 and a sample size of 287 using the Sølvens formula and simple random sampling was used. A questionnaire, which was self-administered to the respondents, was used to collect data. a descriptive design and multiple regression were used in data analysis with the aid of the statistical package for Social Scientists (SPSS) version 27. The hypotheses were tested at a 0.5 confidence level, and thereafter the results were tabulated. The results indicated that there is an insignificant relationship between savings and financial inclusion (t=1.118, P=0.265, >0.05). The findings indicated an insignificant relationship between mobile loans and financial inclusion (t=0.304, p=0.031, <0.05). The results further indicated an insignificant relationship between mobile transfer services and financial inclusion (t=0.021, p=0.762,p>0.05). The researcher concluded that mobile money services, particularly savings and transfers, can have an insignificant impact on financial inclusion; therefore, more emphasis should be put on mobile loans, which has a significant impact on financial inclusion. The mobile transfer services were found to be ineffective in improving financial inclusion due to low wages and limited access to the service in the district. Low-income levels and restricted access to services hindered financial inclusion for the local population. More so, other financial products should be made available to the community, such as mobile banking, insurance so as to boost financial inclusion. It was recommended that loan services should be prioritised for improved financial inclusion because these factors were found to have a major impact on the financial inclusion of the residents of the Buhweju district, and that telecom carriers should continuously offer these services
Impact of Merger on Profitability of Banks: A Study with Reference to Public Sector Banks in India
No full textAims: To investigate the impact of bank mergers on the financial performance of public sector banks in India, specifically examining the effects on Net Interest Margin (NIM), Return on Assets (ROA), and Return on Equity (ROE), and to assess the role of bank-specific factors in influencing these outcomes.
Study Design: Analytical study using panel regression analysis with fixed-effects (FE) and random-effects (RE) models, supported by descriptive statistics and correlation matrix, to evaluate the impact of mergers and bank-specific factors on profitability.
Sample and Duration of Study: The study focuses on five public sector banks in India (Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, Indian Bank, Punjab National Bank, Union Bank of India), using quarterly data from March 31, 2015, to March 31, 2024, covering pre- and post-merger periods (mergers effective from April 1, 2019, for Bank of Baroda, and April 1, 2020, for others).
Methodology: The study included five public sector banks, analysing quarterly financial data over six years. Panel regression models (FE and RE) were employed, with NIM, ROA, and ROE as dependent variables, and a merger dummy variable (0 for pre-merger, 1 for post-merger) as the primary independent variable. Bank-specific control variables included Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Debt-to-Equity Ratio (DE), Cost-to-Income Ratio (CI), Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPA), and Cash-to-Total Assets (CTA). Hausman tests were used to determine model preference.
Results: The mergers significantly increased NIM, ROA, and ROE, with stronger effects under FE models for NIM and ROA, and RE models for ROE. GNPA and CI were consistently negative and significant, indicating adverse effects of poor asset quality and operational inefficiency. CAR positively influenced ROA and ROE, but its impact on NIM was insignificant. DE showed mixed, often negative effects under FE models. CTA remained insignificant across all specifications. The findings highlight mergers and internal efficiency as critical drivers of bank profitability and resilience.
Conclusion: The study demonstrates that bank mergers significantly enhance the financial performance of public sector banks in India, as evidenced by increased NIM, ROA, and ROE. Effective management of asset quality and operational efficiency further strengthens profitability and resilience post-merger
Strategic Material Capability and Performance of Pharmacies: A Study of Garissa Town, Kenya
No full textMaterial capability\u27s influence in deciding organizational performance has been stressed in a growing empirical literature. Material inadequacy exposes pharmacies to poor deliveries, frequent stock-outs, and service disintermediation. In Garissa Town, operational shortcomings like deteriorating road networks, erratic transportation services, and inconsistent vendor networks exacerbate these scenarios, making it difficult for pharmacies to maintain adequate stock levels or meet client demand in a predictable manner. This study investigated the effect of material capability on the performance of pharmacies in Garissa Town in Kenya, with a specific focus on inventory accuracy, procurement efficiency, and cost control. A descriptive cross-sectional research design was employed, covering 35 licensed pharmacies between 10th January to 15th August 2025. The study engaged 105 respondents, comprising pharmacy managers, procurement officers, and pharmacists, using semi-structured questionnaires and interview schedules. A pilot study conducted in Hola, Tana River County, in Kenya, confirmed the clarity, reliability, and validity of the instruments. Data were analyzed using SPSS Version 26, where descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and multiple regression techniques were applied. Results indicated a mean material capability score of 3.8851 (SD = 0.60714), while pharmacy performance registered a mean of 3.8873 (SD = 0.49227). Correlation analysis revealed a strong, positive, and statistically significant association between material capability and pharmacy performance (r = 0.684, p = 0.001). Regression results further confirmed material capability as the most influential predictor (β = 0.471, p = 0.001), accounting for a substantial portion of the variance in performance. Pharmacies with dependable procurement systems, reliable suppliers, and effective stock-out prevention mechanisms consistently reported higher profitability, customer satisfaction, and retention. Qualitative findings highlighted that, despite infrastructural and supply constraints, pharmacies adopted adaptive strategies such as localized vendor networks and manual stock-tracking systems to sustain operations. The study concludes that material capability is central to enhancing pharmacy performance in resource-constrained environments and recommends strategic investment in inventory management systems, supplier reliability, and procurement planning to strengthen service delivery, operational efficiency, and long-term competitiveness
Influence of Human Resource Planning on Organizational Performance: A Quantitative Study of the Federal Ministry of Education, Nigeria
No full textThe study examines the impact of human resource planning like training and recruitment on organizational performance in Nigeria Federal Ministry of Education. The research design was the quantitative approach where statistical analysis was employed to examine research questions, test hypotheses and establish relationships between the variables of interest. One research question and hypotheses guided the study, seven hundred and seventy-four (774) employees of the federal ministry of education, in Nigeria were randomly selected from the various departments in the organization. The reliability of the research instrument was tested using the Cronbach Alpha technique, and a coefficient of 0.93 was obtained. Scores generated from the research instrument with Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) version 27 and analyzed using the weighted mean score and simple linear regression statistical technique. The study results indicated human resource planning with the parameters (β = 1.425, tcal = 17.1, R = 0.55, R2 = 0.30, Adj. R2 = 0.30, Fcal = 159.7, P = 0.00 < 0.05) had a positive and significant influence on the organizational performance at the federal ministry of education in Nigeria. It was also discovered that, there exist a moderate positive and significant relationship between human resource planning and organizational performance at the federal ministry of education, Abuja, which implies that an improvement in human resource planning will lead to an increase in organizational performance by 55%
Working Conditions of the Street Vendors in Bara Bazar, Aizawl City, Mizoram, India
No full textStreet vending is a global phenomenon and a vital part of the informal urban economy, offering livelihood opportunities to low-income populations through easy entry, low capitalization, and self-employment. This study examines the socio-demographic profile, occupational characteristics, and working conditions of street vendors in Bara Bazar, Aizawl City, Mizoram. Primary data were collected from 148 vendors through structured interviews and random sampling, supported by secondary sources. Findings reveal inadequate sanitation, limited access to drinking water, poor shelter, harassment, and safety risks. Despite their significant economic contributions, many vendors with low educational attainment remain excluded from formal employment and work in unhealthy, unsafe environments, highlighting the urgent need for improved infrastructure, legal protection, and inclusive urban policies to safeguard their health and livelihoods
Strategic Intelligence and Sustainable Marketing Performance: Evidence from Jordan’s Industrial Sector
No full textThis study aims to explore how strategic intelligence affects sustainable marketing efforts. People now recognize that strategic intelligence - the ability to gather, examine, and apply information for smart choices - plays a key role in running sustainable businesses. We used a numbers-based approach to assess strategic intelligence\u27s impact on achieving sustainable marketing plans. Our study focused on Marketing Managers in Jordan\u27s industrial firms.
We picked a convenience sample of 400 marketing managers to answer our survey. In the end, we got 321 usable responses to analyze. Our results show that strategic intelligence and influences sustainable marketing, which matters for both a company\u27s marketing and overall strategy. We suggest that Jordanian industrial businesses boost their strategic intelligence plans by putting money into advanced analysis tools and new tech
Factors Influencing the Level of Sustainability Report Disclosure: A Case of Construction Companies Listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange
No full textAims: This study was conducted to examine the factors influencing sustainability report disclosure. The independent variables were profitability, intellectual capital, leverage, company activities, company size, audit committee, and board of directors. The dependent variable, sustainability report disclosure, was measured based on environmental, social, and economic topics using the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) standards.
Methodology: This study was quantitative, using a purposive sampling method based on predetermined criteria. The sample used in this study was 14 construction companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Data was collected over a four-year period, from 2021 to 2024, resulting in a total of 56 data points to be processed.
Results: The goodness of fit test (F test) showed that all independent variables influenced sustainability report disclosure. However, a t-test indicated that intellectual capital and leverage significantly influenced sustainability report disclosure. Meanwhile, profitability, company size, company activities, audit committee, and board of directors did not significantly influence sustainability report disclosure. The findings of this study emphasize that external factors or other variables that were not tested have a more dominant role in encouraging sustainability report disclosure, such as pressure from the community, company reputation, or encouragement from top management