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Gray Dragons: Assessing China’s Senior Military Leadership
No full textThis report analyzes more than 300 biographies of senior Chinese military officers from 2015 and 2021 to assess the composition, demographics, and career patterns of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) leadership.https://digitalcommons.ndu.edu/china-strategic-perspectives/1003/thumbnail.jp
“We Choose to Go to the Moon”: An Analysis of a Cold War Means-Developing Strategy
No full textStrategists often ask “With the means available right now, what end can we achieve?” However, in strategy design it can be more appropriate to ask, “What is the desired end, and what means are available to achieve it?” The answer to this question may be, “If this is the desired end, first this new capability has to be created.” This case study examines how Kennedy determined he could achieve his ends (beat the Soviets in the world competition) in a particular way (shape the world conversation) using means yet to be created (the moon landing).https://digitalcommons.ndu.edu/nwc-case-studies/1003/thumbnail.jp
Pushing Back Against China\u27s New Normal in the Taiwan Strait
No full textThe key question moving forward is how to prevent China from making a more aggressive posture against Taiwan the new normal. More frequent Chinese exercises and incursions close to Taiwan should be monitored and, if necessary, thwarted, countered, or disrupted. If Chinese exercises involve military aircraft venturing into Taiwan’s airspace, for example, Taipei and Washington should consider measures to warn or intercept the Chinese planes. In response to the threat of a quarantine or blockade, Taipei needs to invest in appropriate capabilities and increase stockpiles of critical resources. Finally, larger, more frequent Chinese exercises around Taiwan would make determining China’s intentions more difficult. The United States and Taiwan should refine their approach to strategic warning, identifying indicators that can differentiate between a Chinese military exercise and preparations for an actual attack
Joint Force Quarterly 107 (4th Quarter, October 2022)
No full texthttps://digitalcommons.ndu.edu/jfq-full-issue/1006/thumbnail.jp
The PLA’s Strategic Support Force and AI Innovation
No full textIn recent years, as progress in artificial intelligence (AI) has accelerated, nearly every major power has pledged to develop advanced AI capabilities and effectively integrate AI into their armed forces. Yet none have pursued those efforts as purposefully as China. Not only has Beijing issued an ambitious plan to make China the world’s leading AI power by 2030, but the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has unveiled an aggressive innovation-driven strategy for the Chinese military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Likewise, Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the CCP, has consistently emphasized China’s commitment to AI development and “intelligent warfare”– most recently in his landmark report this fall to the 20th Party Congress.
If China’s strategic ambitions for AI are clear, how it intends to integrate AI into the PLA remains opaque. The CCP’s goals for militarized AI are still shrouded in mystery, even as the PLA clearly views AI as a technology that will be vital for driving next-generation warfare
Anomalous Health Incidents of the Havana Syndrome: Implications and Lessons for Global Biosecurity and Defense
No full textLast week, the United States Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) released the Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community. [1] The report noted that, global shortcomings in preparedness for…biosecurity may inspire some adversaries to con-sider…biological weapons developments. The report further stated that recent advances in dual-use technology…could enable development of novel biological weapons that complicate detection, attribution, and treatment. Particular in this regard, the report addressed anomalous health incidents , of the so-called Havana Syndrome, with the ODNI focusing…upon a subset of priority cases for which it has not ruled…the possibility that one or more foreign actors were involved. The new ODNI Report echoes the Central Intelligence Agency\u27s (CIA) previously stated position on Havana Syndrome [2], which, when taken together, establish that: • the approximately two dozen individuals originally affected in Havana in 2016 are regarded as verified cases of a physical injury. • the exact nature and probable cause of this injury remains under investigation; but exposure to some form of directed energy device remains a valid and viable possibility. • several lines of evidence support that the multinational state-of-the-science and-technology is sufficiently advanced and developed to produce and operationally employ such devices
The Civil War and Revolutions in Naval Affairs: Lessons for Today
No full textAt certain times, owing to new strategy, new technology, or the vagaries of war, the character of naval warfare and course of naval history undergo rapid, profound, and lasting change. Our thesis is that the American Civil War was one such time. It was the seminal revolution in naval affairs in the history of the United States. With its existence at stake, the Union doubled down on its plan to blockade the Confederacy even as the demands of doing so became clear. What followed was an American revolution in naval affairs with worldwide implications for the 19th, 20th, and 21st centuries.https://digitalcommons.ndu.edu/strategic-monographs/1003/thumbnail.jp
Controlling Chemical Weapons in the New International Order
No full textMr. John Caves, CSWMD Distinguished Fellow, and Dr. Seth Carus, NDU Emeritus Distinguished Professor of National Security Policy examine the breakdown in consensus decision-making at the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) and place this development in the context of Russia, China, and Iran’s larger challenge to a rules-based international order. The article further considers how this dynamic may play out in the OPCW in the coming years and discusses how the United States can continue to use the Chemical Weapons Convention and OPCW to defend the international norm against chemical weapons while better protecting itself and its allies and partners from a greater chemical weapons threat.https://digitalcommons.ndu.edu/wmd-proceedings/1008/thumbnail.jp
We Choose to Go to the Moon : An Analysis of a Cold War Means-Developing Strategy
No full textStrategists often ask “With the means available right now, what end can we achieve?” However, in strategy design it can be more appropriate to ask, “What is the desired end, and what means are available to achieve it?” The answer to this question may be, “If this is the desired end, first this new capability has to be created.” This case study examines how Kennedy determined he could achieve his ends (beat the Soviets in the world competition) in a particular way (shape the world conversation) using means yet to be created (the moon landing).https://digitalcommons.ndu.edu/ndu-case-studies/1004/thumbnail.jp