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Assessing Russian Cyber and Information Warfare in Ukraine: Expectations, Realities, and Lessons
No full textThis article examines Russian use of cyber and information capabilities to influence the course of the Ukraine war by analyzing prior expectations, public knowledge of wartime realities, potential reasons for disparity between the two, and the distinct and sometimes contradictory takeaways that have been drawn to date within the analytical community. What lessons can be learned from the early phase of the Ukraine war concerning Russia\u27s capabilities, strategy, and approach in cyberspace? To what extent do these lessons point to broader possible conclusions about the role of cyber and information operations during direct military conflict? Furthermore, what explains the dramatically different early responses to these significant questions? How can the strategic community make sense of this debate and arrive at usable lessons? Although the lack of consensus among experts this far into the conflict demonstrates the challenges of drawing conclusions with incomplete and early evidence, we suggest that significant preliminary lessons can be drawn by looking at both sides of the debate—understanding the bases of disagreement and elements of validity to each set of claims
Joint Force Quarterly 110 (3rd Quarter, July 2023)
No full texthttps://digitalcommons.ndu.edu/jfq-full-issue/1003/thumbnail.jp
Agile and Adaptable: U.S. and NATO Approaches to Russia\u27s Short-Term Military Potential
No full textRussia’s war in Ukraine has triggered the worst security crisis facing Europe since the end of the Cold War. It brought a major conventional war of aggression to the European continent and enormous human suffering, but in doing so it has also unified and reenergized the NATO alliance and accelerated efforts to reconstitute transatlantic defense and deterrence. Assessing Russia’s performance in the war thus far, and how the Russian military is evolving as a result, is an important part of that effort. This report assesses changes in the Russian military threat to NATO over the short term (two to four years), and it provides analysis on how the United States and NATO might adapt their strategies, planning, and posture in response
Solarium at 70: Project Solarium’s Influence on Eisenhower Historiography and National Security Strategy
No full textProject Solarium was a national security exercise that took place in 1953 during the first months of the Dwight D. Eisenhower Presidency, taking its name from the White House solarium, where Eisenhower and his Secretary of State, John Foster Dulles, conceived it. According to many scholars, Project Solarium highly influenced Eisenhower’s strategy, and it has come to be regarded as an outstanding example of strategic planning and foresight—indeed as a standard for other American Presidential administrations.https://digitalcommons.ndu.edu/strategic-monographs/1000/thumbnail.jp
Integrated Deterrence and Cyberspace: Selected Essays Exploring the Role of Cyber Operations in the Pursuit of National Interest
No full textThis edited volume represents an important contribution to our thinking on cyberspace and national security. It also serves as one example of an enduring and fruitful relationship between the U.S. Cyber Command (USCYBERCOM) and the College of Information and Cyberspace (CIC) at the National Defense University (NDU).https://digitalcommons.ndu.edu/strategic-monographs/1001/thumbnail.jp
For Xi and China, Putin\u27s War is a Geopolitical Minefield
No full textRussia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 upended international politics and scrambled the strategic calculations of many states, few more seriously than China. While benefitting from its deep economic linkages with the United States and European Union, China retains considerable influence in the Global South and has seen its “comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination” with Moscow blossom. Combined, that has put China in prime position to consolidate its influence as a world power. But amid the jolt to global affairs since Russia launched its war against Ukraine, Beijing is now scrambling to limit the fallout of the conflict on its core strategic and economic interests
COMMENTARY: Opening the Replicator Program’s Pandora’s Box
No full textChina’s ongoing dedication to developing unmanned vehicles for military applications has prompted the United States’ unveiling of the Replicator program — an initiative described by Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks to “master the technology of tomorrow” by creating and employing “attritable, autonomous systems in all domains.
China’s Expanding Nuclear Capabilities: A Conversation with David Logan and Phil Saunders
No full textDr. Phil Saunders, in the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs, and David Logan join this episode of the ChinaPower podcast. They recently co-authored a new report titled Discerning the Drivers of China’s Nuclear Force Development: Models, Indicators, and Data. They lay out the six models developed in the report and explain which models are the most compelling for explaining China’s behavior. Dr. Logan dives into the expansion in size, structure, and capabilities of China’s nuclear stockpile in the last 10 years but highlights the fact that there has been no official announcement on China’s reasoning for this build-up. In the context of this expansion, Dr. Saunders points out that China is showing signs that its nuclear strategy could be shifting, and he notes that the prospects of strategic arms control have become more complicated.https://digitalcommons.ndu.edu/podcasts/1003/thumbnail.jp
Responding to Future Pandemics: Biosecurity Implications and Defense Considerations
No full textIn an evolving and expanding biothreat landscape caused by emerging biotechnologies, increases in global infectious disease outbreaks, and geopolitical instability, the Department of Defense now faces challenges that alter its traditional approach to biothreats and prompt the need for modernized, improved preparedness for—and response to—potential biothreat scenarios. These challenges further complicate specific weaknesses revealed by the COVID-19 pandemic, including the Department’s inability to sustain the military mission while meeting intragovernmental expectations to assist with civilian public health resources and services
PRISM Vol. 10, No. 2
No full textThis issue of PRISM—titled “Forward Defense”—examines the security transformations taking place in these diverse but aligned countries. As distinct as these nine countries are they are each reinforcing, or in some cases rebuilding, their armed forces and reviving the Total Defense or Comprehensive Defense concepts they embraced during the Cold War. Total or Comprehensive Defense is a strategic approach that recognizes the multidimensional threat posed by autocratic countries and the existential threat to the liberal, rules-based world order. It understands that effective deterrence depends on both resistance and resilience and codes those into the respective security and defense strategies.https://digitalcommons.ndu.edu/prism-full-issue/1038/thumbnail.jp