Journals Poznań University of Economics and Business
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Analyst herding – whether, why, and when? Two new tests for herding detection in target forecast prices
Get PDFThis study proposes two novel tests for security analyst herding based on binomial correlation and forecast error volatility scaling and applies it to investigate herding patterns in analyst target prices in 2008-2020 in the UK. Analysts robustly herd in their valuations, with results consistent across years, sectors, in panel fixed effect, quantile, instrumental variable regressions, and when controlled for optimism and conservatism. Herding becomes prominent for stocks followed by at least five analysts and towards the long sides of Fama-French sorts, reinforcing its non-spurious and behavioral nature. Analyst herd more strongly subject to low volatility and uncertainty
Editorial Introduction
Get PDFThis issue of Economics and Business Review answers the new set of challenges that the economic world faces nowadays. These problems arise both at the micro-and macroeconomic level. The authors of eleven papers have enriched the existing literature by sharing the results of their studies in three areas. First, the key elements of company growth and value are studied. The variety of development paths of entrepreneurship makes this area especially complex considering the sudden changes in the business environment over the last years. The second group of articles deals with quite new factors that give rise to new threats which are appearing but which also create enormous opportunities for economic decision makers. These are environmental issues, new technologies, integration between countries and social capital. The third research set addresses the current dilemmas of public authorities. The papers support answers to the questions about food security, local public debt, sustainability of public debt and the consequences of economic integration
A causal and nonlinear relationship between trade credit policy and firm value: evidence from an emerging market
Get PDFThis study examines whether there is a causal and nonlinear relationship between trade credit policy and firm value. In line with this purpose, the 2005Q1 - 2018Q4 period data is examined for 103 companies operating in the manufacturing industry in an emerging market, Borsa Istanbul, and the relationships revealed. The nonlinear relationship between trade credit and firm value has been proved with the Two-step System GMM (Generalized Moment of Methods) and causality with Dumitrescu - Hurlin (2012) heterogeneous panel causality tests. According to the findings, a nonlinear (inverted U-shaped) relationship has been found between trade credit policy and firm value. Moreover, the values of firms that have moved away from optimum trade credit levels are also negatively affected. One of the original aspects of this study is that the bidirectional causal relationship between trade credit policy and firm value has been revealed
Capital social et pauvreté des ménages ruraux au Burkina Faso
No full textPurpose : This paper analyses the effect of social capital on household poverty in rural Burkina Faso. Design/methodology/approach : This research suggests an endogeneity problem leading to the use of two two-stage methods: the two-stage least squares Probit approach (2SPLS) and the two-stage conditional maximum likelihood approach (2SCML). Using survey data from the National Land Management Program (PNGT 2) collected in 2011 from rural households. Findings : The investigations revealed that access to social capital positively affects household consumption and reduces poverty. These results further show that income is negatively associated with access to social capital. Government strategies to reduce household poverty in rural areas should encourage the organization of producers into groups with a focus on low-income producers. Originality/value : Social capital plays an important role in improving household living conditions, regardless of geographical location. However, socio-cultural realities vary from one area to another, which affects the organization and content of associations and groups. Despite the many studies on the subject, very few have focused on Burkina Faso. The few studies that have been carried out have not examined the dual causality between social capital and poverty. This research, which uses national-level data, can help to deepen, and broaden knowledge on the issue. (original abstract)Purpose : This paper analyses the effect of social capital on household poverty in rural Burkina Faso.
Design/methodology/approach : This research suggests an endogeneity problem leading to the use of two two-stage methods: the two-stage least squares Probit approach (2SPLS) and the two-stage conditional maximum likelihood approach (2SCML). Using survey data from the National Land Management Program (PNGT 2) collected in 2011 from rural households.
Findings : The investigations revealed that access to social capital positively affects house- hold consumption and reduces poverty. These results further show that income is negatively associated with access to social capital. Government strategies to reduce household poverty in rural areas should encourage the organization of producers into groups with a focus on low-income producers.
Originality/value : Social capital plays an important role in improving household living conditions, regardless of geographical location. However, socio-cultural realities vary from one area to another, which affects the organization and content of associations and groups. Despite the many studies on the subject, very few have focused on Burkina Faso. The few studies that have been carried out have not examined the dual causality between social capital and poverty. This research vel data, can help to deepen, and broaden knowledge on the issue.L\u27objectif : Cet article analyse l\u27effet du capital social sur la pauvreté des ménages en milieu rural au Burkina Faso.
Conception/méthodologie/approche : La présente recherche suppose une relation causale à double sens entre la pauvreté et l\u27accès au capital social. Cela suggère un problème d\u27endogénéité conduisant à l\u27utilisation de deux méthodes en deux étapes : l\u27approche Probit moindres carrés en deux étapes (2SPLS) et l\u27approche du maximum de vraisemblance conditionnelle en deux étapes (2SCML). Les analyses se sont basées sur des données d\u27enquêtes du Programme National de Gestion des Terroirs (PNGT 2) collectées en 2011 auprès des ménages en milieu rural.
Résultats : Les investigations ont révélé que l\u27accès au capital social affecte positivement la consommation des ménages et réduit la pauvreté. Ces résultats montrent, en outre, que le revenu est négativement associé à l\u27accès au capital social. Les stratégies gouvernementales visant à réduire la pauvreté des ménages en milieu rural doivent encourager l\u27organisation des producteurs en groupements avec un accent mis sur les producteurs à faible revenu.
Originalité/valeur : Le capital social joue un rôle important dans l\u27amélioration des conditions de vie des ménages indépendamment de l\u27espace géographique. Cependant, les réalités socioculturelles varient selon l\u27espace, ce qui affecte l\u27organisation et le contenu des associations et des groupements. Malgré les nombreux travaux sur le sujet, très peu ont concerné le Burkina Faso. Les quelques travaux n\u27ont pas examiné la double causalité entre le capital social et la pauvreté. Cette recherche qui utilise des données d\u27envergure nationale peut contribue à approfondir et élargir les connaissances sur la question
Environmental, Social and Governance Responsibility, financial performance and assets: A study of Exchange Traded Funds
No full textTwo research questions are examined in this study with a sample of 168 passive Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). The first one asks whether a high Environmental, Social and Governance Responsibility (ESG) rating induces investors to allocate more money in an ETF. The empirical findings indicate that the level of assets is not affected by the ESG rating whatsoever, but it is affected by factors such as the historical performance, the expense ratio and the age of each fund. The second question raised concerns the relationship between the performance of an ETF and its ESG rating. The hypothesis examined is that the higher the ESG rating of an ETF is, the higher the return of the ETF should be. The results do not confirm this hypothesis. Not surprisingly, to a large extent, the performance of ETFs is driven by the return of the tracking indexes. To a lesser degree, expense ratio bears a negative impact on ETFs’ performance.
Big data in monetary policy analysis—a critical assessment
Get PDFOver the last years the use of big data became increasingly relevant also for macroeconomic topics and specifically the conduct and analysis of monetary policy. The aim of this paper is to provide a survey of these applications and the relevant methods. The rationale for doing so is twofold. First, there is no straightforward definition of “big data”. Since macroeconomics and monetary policy analysis has a long tradition in quite sophisticated and data-intensive empirical applications the nature of the innovation big data is indeed bringing to the field is reflected upon. Second, concerning statistical/empirical methods the analysis of big data necessitates the use of different tools relative to traditional empirical macroeconomics which are in some cases a complement to more traditional methods. Hence big data in monetary policy is not just the application of well-established methods to larger data sets
Judgements of research co-created by generative AI: experimental evidence
Get PDFThe introduction of ChatGPT has fuelled a public debate on the appropriateness of using generative AI (large language models; LLMs) in work, including a debate on how they might be used (and abused) by researchers. In the current work, we test whether delegating parts of the research process to LLMs leads people to distrust researchers and devalues their scientific work. Participants (N = 402) considered a researcher who delegates elements of the research process to a PhD student or LLM and rated three aspects of such delegation. First, they rated whether it is morally appropriate to do so. Secondly, they judged whether – after deciding to delegate the research process – they would trust the scientist (that decided to delegate) to oversee future projects. Thirdly, they rated the expected accuracy and quality of the output from the delegated research process. Our results show that people judged delegating to an LLM as less morally acceptable than delegating to a human (d = -0.78). Delegation to an LLM also decreased trust to oversee future research projects (d = -0.80), and people thought the results would be less accurate and of lower quality (d = -0.85). We discuss how this devaluation might transfer into the underreporting of generative AI use
Does firm size improve firm growth? Empirical evidence from an emerging economy
Get PDFThis study aims to examine the relationship between firm size and firm growth in Vietnam. The literature does not in general give support to Gibrat’s Law stating that the expected increase in firm size is proportionate to its initial size, or that firm growth rates are independent of firm size. The present study relies on a sample of 578 listed Vietnamese companies representing eight different industries and covering the period 2010 to 2020. The analysis reveals that growth in firm revenues does not give support to a hypothesis of independence of initial firm sizes. When the firm size is measured by total assets the opposite result appears, i.e. the Gibrat’s Law is not rejected. When including also the age of the firms in the test methodology the conclusion will be that firm growth – measured by revenue or assets – in all cases will decrease with firm size
Prévision à court terme en temps réel de l\u27épidémie de COVID-19 à Cuba en utilisant la modélisation
No full textIn the absence of reliable information about transmission mechanisms of an emerging infection, simple phenomenological models can provide an early assessment of the potential scope of outbreaks in near real- time. Early prediction of the final size of any epidemic and in particular for ongoing COVID-19 epidemic can be useful for health authorities in order to plan the response to the outbreak. A variety of nonlinear models have been developed to model reported cumulative cases in infectious disease outbreak (e.g., Richards, logistic, Gompertz models). All these models could fit epidemic data well in order to obtain real-time short-term forecasts. Typically, one follows the so called post selection estimation procedure, i.e., selects the best fitting model out of the set of candidate models and ignores the model uncertainty in both estimation and inference since these procedures are based on a single model. In this paper, we conduct a real-time prediction for the final size, turning point of the outbreak, and also generate 10-day ahead forecasts of cumulative case using several nonlinear models in which these parameters are estimated via model averaging. The proposed method is applied to COVID-19 epidemic data in 2020 Cuba outbreak.(original abstract)In the absence of reliable information about transmission mechanisms of an emerging infection, simple phenomenological models can provide an early assessment of the potential scope of outbreaks in near real- time. Early prediction of the final size of any epidemic and in particular for ongoing COVID-19 epidemic can be useful for health authorities in order to plan the response to the outbreak. A variety of nonlinear models have been developed to model reported cumulative cases in infectious disease outbreak (e.g., Richards, logistic, Gompertz models). All these models could fit epidemic data well in order to obtain real-time short-term forecasts. Typically, one follows the so called post selection estimation procedure, i.e., selects the best fitting model out of the set of candidate models and ignores the model uncertainty in both estimation and inference since these procedures are based on a single model. In this paper, we conduct a real-time prediction for the final size, turning point of the outbreak, and also generate 10-day ahead forecasts of cumulative case using several nonlinear models in which these parameters are estimated via model averaging. The proposed method is applied to COVID-19 epidemic data in 2020 Cuba outbreak.En l\u27absence d\u27information fiable sur les mécanismes de transmission d\u27une infection émergente, de simples modèles phénoménologiques peuvent apporter une estimation précoce de l\u27étendue potentielle d\u27épidémies en temps réel. Un avertissement sur la taille finale d\u27une épidémie et en particulier de la COVID-19 actuellement actif peut servir aux autorités sanitaires pour y faire face. Une variété de modèles non-linéaires ont été développés pour définir les cas cumulés de maladies épidémiques infectieuses (e.g. Richards, logistique, modèles Gompertz). Tous ces modèles peuvent utiliser correctement les données pour obtenir des prévisions à court terme en temps réel. Typiquement, il s\u27agit de suivre la procédure d\u27estimation post-sélection, i.e., de sélectionner un modèle parmi tous ceux disponibles et d\u27ignorer ceux reposant sur l\u27incertitude dans l\u27estimation et l\u27inférence vu que ces procédures sont basées sur un seul modèle. Dans ce travail, nous établissons une prédiction en temps réel de la taille finale, point crucial de l\u27épidémie, et des prévisions 10 jours à l\u27avance de cas cumulatifs en utilisant plusieurs modèles non-linéaires où ces paramètres sont estimés via modélisation. La méthode est appliquée à l\u27épidémie de COVID-19 en 2020 à Cuba
La culture d\u27agrumes dans les communautés agricoles chiliennes : Vers un développement durable
No full text: This review article aims to comment on the importance of citrus in the agricultural communities of the Limarí Province from the perspective of achieving sustainable agricultural development in these communities, highlighting the results of a pilot experience with rural citrus growers. Firstly, the state of development of citriculture in Chile is described. Secondly, this activity is treated from the perspective of the agricultural communities of Limarí. Thirdly, a report results of a pilot study on citrus culture developed in the agricultural community are explained. This work shows how attractive the citrus sector has become for agricultural communities, especially the commercialization of the typical yellow lemon. It also highlights the need to implement agri-environmental education programs among their inhabitants to promote the care of critical natural resources such as water and soil. The growth and development of citrus farming in Limarí's agricultural communities must be consistent with an analysis of the availability of these resources and responsible use of them. (original abstract)This review article aims to comment on the importance of citrus in the agricultural communities of the Limarí Province from the perspective of achieving sustainable agricultural development in these communities, highlighting the results of a pilot experience with rural citrus growers. Firstly, the state of development of citriculture in Chile is described. Secondly, this activity is treated from the perspective of the agricultural communities of Limarí. Thirdly, a report results of a pilot study on citrus culture developed in the agricultural community are explained. This work shows how attractive the citrus sector has become for agricultural communities, especially the commercialization of the typical yellow lemon. It also highlights the need to implement agri-environmental education programs among their inhabitants to promote the care of critical natural resources such as water and soil. The growth and development of citrus farming in Limarí ’ s agricultural communities must be consistent with an analysis of the availability of these resources and responsible use of them.Cet article souligne l\u27importance des agrumes dans les communautés agricoles de la Province de Limarí du point de vue du développement agricole durable dans ces communautés, en soulignant les résultats de l\u27expérience des cultivateurs ruraux. D\u27abord, l\u27état de développement de la culture des agrumes au Chili est décrit. Ensuite, cette activité est traitée dans la perspective des communautés agricoles de Limarí. En troisième lieu, nous analysons une analyse pilote de la culture des agrumes dans la communauté agricole. Ce travail souligne l\u27attrait que présente le secteur des agrumes pour les communautés agricoles, en particulier la commercialisation du traditionnel citron jaune. Il se penche aussi sur l\u27implantation de programmes d\u27éducation agro-environnementale parmi ses habitants pour promouvoir le soin des ressources naturelles comme l\u27eau et la terre. La croissance et le développement de la culture des agrumes dans les communautés agricoles de Limarí doivent être consistants, avec une analyse de la disponibilité de ces ressources et leur utilisation responsable