Journals Poznań University of Economics and Business
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Digitalisation and income inequality in Central and Eastern European countries
Full text linkThe COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of digital technologies in business and daily life. The paper aims to explore the theoretical and empirical aspects of the relation between digitalisation and income inequality in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries between the years 2000-2020. It contributes to existing research on determinants of income inequality, focussing on the potential negative role of digitalisation as an unnoticeable driver of income inequality in CEE countries. To investigate the potential impact of digitalisation on income inequality, empirical analysis was performed for the sample of 10 CEE countries, namely Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia. The results of canonical correlation analysis indicated that the sets of variables related to digitalisation and inequality as a group are significantly related to each other and a strong correlation exists between them. The relative contribution of each indicator to each standardised function showed that the highest values of significant standardised coefficients were observed for income inequality indicators such as the top 10% share, the Gini coefficient, and the top 1% share, while in digitalisation measures, the highest value was observed for Internet users and fixed and mobile broadband subscriptions
Forecasting foreign exchange rate volatility using deep learning: Case of US dollar/Algerian dinar during the COVID-19 pandemic
Full text linkThis study explores the application of deep learning techniques in forecasting foreign exchange rate volatility, leveraging the capabilities of neural networks to capture complex patterns and nonlinear relationships within financial data.
We applied the auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and machine learning linear regression (LR) model, deep learning models ( recurrent neural networks (RNN), bidirectional LSTM (Bi-LSTM), long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU). In terms of forecasting errors, and Python routines were used for such purpose. Morever, In order to investigate the quality of the models used, we compared the performances of these algorithms in US dollar/algerian dinar exchange rate forecasting througt the application of significance satistical tests (R-squared, MSE, RMSE, MAE, MAPE)The results clearly depict that contemporary techniques have been shown to produce more accurate results than conventional regression-based modeling. The machine learning linear regression (LR) model provides the maximum accuracy rate of (99.83%) followed by the RNN models with GRU model (92.27%) , Bi-LSTM model (87.34%), LSTM model (74.68%) and ARIMA model (32.29%)
Examining the performance of Shari’ah‑compliant versus conventional stock indexes: A comparative analysis pre-, during, and post-COVID-19
Full text linkThis study aims to conduct an empirical comparative analysis of the performance of Shari’ah and conventional stock indexes during the period 2017–2023, which includes the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, it aims to investigate investors’ preferences and analyse the long-term relationship of these indexes, as well as exploring the potential diversification benefits. The research methodology incorporates stochastic dominance analysis, the VARMAX procedure, and Johansen’s co-integration approach. The data utilized consists of 31 conventional and 31 Islamic stock indexes, specifically from the FTSE, DJ, MSCI, and S&P series.The results show that there are no long-term co-integration links between 30 out of 31 pairs of Islamic and conventional indexes. While conventional indexes tend to outperform Islamic indexes, they also come with a higher risk. On the other hand, Islamic indexes are considered to be less risky, offering potential diversification opportunities that may be attractive for global portfolios, particularly during periods of financial distress
The role of internationalisation in moderating the impact of ESG disclosure on financial performance
Full text linkThis study aims to determine the influence of environmental responsibility, social responsibility, and governance practice disclosures on the financial performance of non-financial companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2012 to 2021. It employs moderated regression analysis and sub-group regression to explain the relationships between the variables. The results suggest a surprising finding that the indicators of environmental responsibility and governance disclosure practices lead to a decline in corporate financial performance, while the social responsibility indicator does not significantly affect corporate financial performance. Expenditures resulting from ESG practices can be perceived as a misuse of corporate resources, a missed opportunity, or, alternatively, as an overinvestment. However, the decline in performance due to environmental responsibility disclosure and governance practices can be mitigated by companies that engage in internationalisation. To sustain environmental, social, and governance activities over the long term, managers are required to deliver consistently increasing and higher financial performance
Analysis of the impact of financial inclusion and FinTech on youth labour force participation in the MENA region
Full text linkThis study examines the determinants of financial inclusion and FinTech in order to evaluate their effects on youth labor force participation in the MENA region. The World Bank\u27s Global Findex 2021 database was used to perform probit estimations and propensity score matching. The results show that young people with higher education levels, higher incomes, mobile phones and internet access are more likely to be included in the traditional and digital financial systems. In addition, the factors hindering financial inclusion include a lack of documentation, religious constraints and the costs associated with financial services. Furthermore, examining the effect of financial inclusion and fintech reveals that having formal bank accounts and mobile money accounts, as well as savings, formal loans, and digital transactions have a significant impact on young people\u27s participation in the labor force
Investissement Direct Étranger, transition energétique et degradation de l’environnement : évidence des pays d’Afrique subsaharienne
No full textPurpose – The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), energy transition, and environmental pollution in Sub-Saharan Africa spanning the period 1985 to 2020.
Design/methodology/approach – Divers econometrics approaches were used in order to have robust results. The cross-sectional dependency test was conducted and the results confirmed the presence of cross-sectional dependency among variables and this led to the usage of the second-generation unit root test. The analysis was conducted using the Driscoll and Kraay method, which helps address endogeneity, autocorrelation, and heteroscedasticity.
Findings – The results show that the pollution haven hypothesis is confirmed and that renewable energy usage which measures the energy transition diminishes environmental pollution. The coupled effect of foreign direct investment and renewable energy diminishes the environmental pollution. The population density increases environmental pollution. The same effect is also observed for trade and gross domestic product on environmental pollution.
Originality/value – This current study contributes to the existing literature through the analysis of the effect of foreign direct investment on the usage of renewable energy on environmental quality which is an essential element in the transition economics because there are several studies conducted to establish either the relationship between foreign direct investment and environmental pollution or renewable energy usage and environmental pollution but this study beyond this aspect will help knowing how both foreign direct investment and renewable energy affect environmental quality for policy recommendation. We then suggest from these results that more efforts should be made in order to increase the rate of foreign Direct Investment in Sub-Sahara African Countries, particularly the attraction of green technologies which can help produce more renewable energies.L’objectif – L’objectif de cette étude est d’analyser la relation entre les investissements directs étrangers (IDE), la transition énergétique et la pollution de l\u27environnement en Afrique subsaharienne sur la période 1985 à 2020.
Conception/méthodologie/approche – Diverses approches économétriques ont été utilisées afin d’obtenir des résultats robustes. Le test de dépendance transversale a été effectué et les résultats ont confirmé la présence d\u27une dépendance transversale entre les variables, ce qui a permis l\u27utilisation du test de racine unitaire de seconde génération. L\u27analyse a été réalisée à l\u27aide de la méthode de Driscoll et Kraay, qui permet de traiter l\u27endogénéité, l\u27autocorrélation et l\u27hétéroscédasticité.
Résultats : Les résultats montrent que l’hypothèse << pollutio haven>> est confirmée et que l’utilisation des énergies renouvelables qui mesure la transition énergétique diminue la pollution environnementale. Aussi l’éffet couplé des investissement direct à l étranger et les énergies renouvelable minimise la pollution de l environnement .La densité de la population, le commerce et le produit intérieur brut augmente la pollution de l\u27environnement.
Originalité/valeur –Cette étude contribue à la littérature existant sur l’analyse de la relation entre investissement direct à l’étranger et la pollution de l’environnement ou énergies renouvelable et pollution de l’environnement en portant un regard particulier sur l’effet couplé de l’investissement direct à l’étranger et l’usage des énergies renouvelables sur la qualité de l’environnement. Nous pouvons suggérer à partir de ces résultats que d’ample efforts devraient être faits afin d\u27augmenter le taux d\u27investissement direct étranger dans les pays d\u27Afrique subsaharienne, en particulier l\u27attrait des technologies vertes qui peuvent aider à produire davantage d\u27énergies renouvelables
Development of innovationin the Polish banking sector
Full text linkThe rapidly developing market for new technologies is driving the introduction of innovative solutions in the banking sector. As a public trust sector, they are subject to numerous regulations. Supervisors and central banks are trying to support the develop- ment of new technologies in the sector by reducing regulatory uncertainty and support programs aimed at FinTech (Financial Technologies) companies. The purpose of the study is to analyse existing regulations and regulators’ initiatives on new technologies in the banking sector. The author seeks to answer the research question of whether the introduced regulations support or limit the digital transformation of the banking sector in Poland. An im- portant aspect in the sector is customer security, so regulations should focus on protecting the banking customer and ensuring the stability of the sector. They are analysed by regulators so that the relevant regulations enable the introduction of innovative yet safe solutions. The author points out possible synergies resulting from cooperation between banks and FinTech companies. In conclusion, dialogue between banking sector institutions, regulators, central banks and banks leads to the creation of an environment that allows the introduction of innovative solutions while maintaining customer protection and banking sector stability
Stock market return and merger and acquisition activity in Poland
Full text linkThis article explores mergers and acquisitions trends in the Polish market in a period between 2019 and 2022, focusing on transactions exceeding one million dollars and their correlation with sector-specific stock market returns. The research reveals that the real estate sector, encompassing both development and property management, dominated M&A activity, comprising 25% of transactions in 2022. Significant positive correlations were observed between transaction volumes and average stock market returns, notably in sectors like real estate (R-Pearson = 0.75) and TMT (R-Pearson = 0.87). These findings indicate that sectors with higher returns attracted more M&A activity, reflecting investor confidence and strategic growth opportunities. Despite fluctuations in company valuations post-pandemic, the overall volume of M&A transactions continued to rise, driven by firms with strong cash reserves leveraging lower valuations for strategic expansions. The study anticipates sustained momentum in technology and real estate sectors, alongside emerging opportunities in energy and biotechnology, influenced by global trends and technological advancements. This research contributes valuable insights into the evolving landscape of M&A in Poland, highlighting sectoral attractiveness and strategic implications for investors and businesses
Underdetermination problem in methodology of economics
Full text linkThis paper explores the Duhem-Quine (DQ) problem and its impact on economic methodology, focusing on how the reliance on auxiliary assumptions complicates the testing and validation of theories. The DQ problem shows that no hypothesis is tested in isolation, as it depends on additional assumptions and background knowledge, making it challenging to pinpoint where errors lie. This issue is particularly relevant in economics, where complex models and assumptions about human behavior play a significant role, and in finance, where the robustness of models is critical for decision-making under uncertainty.
The paper highlights two key gaps: (i) the limited discussion of the DQ problem in economic methodology, and (ii) the lack of alternative approaches to ensure rational methods in light of DQ. To address these issues, it proposes a multi-criterial framework for evaluating theories, emphasizing consistency, diverse data, localized testing, comparing models, and varying assumptions systematically.
Using examples like housing market models and the Ultimatum Game, the paper illustrates how addressing the DQ problem involves avoiding arbitrary changes to assumptions while adopting clear, rational strategies. By providing a stronger methodological foundation, this approach enhances the reliability of economic and financial theories, improving their influence on policy-making and practical applications
Corruption, droits de propriété et croissance économique en Afrique subsaharienne
No full textPurpose: The objective of this article is to analyze the relationship between corruption, property rights and economic growth in sub-Saharan African countries.
Design/methodology/approach: The model used in this work is inspired by Aziz and Asadullah (2016) and Walid and Kais (2019), whose theoretical basis is the Cobb-Douglas production function, which includes two major components, namely labor and capital and other institutional factors. Thus, the analysis of the interaction between property rights, corruption and economic growth is carried out using a panel VAR model.
Findings: The results show that corruption has a positive effect on economic growth while economic growth has no effect on corruption. Property rights promote economic growth while economic growth does not help protect property rights. Corruption has a negative effect on property rights while property rights have no effect on corruption.
Originality/value: The originality lies in the analysis of the ambiguous role of corruption in relation to property rights and economic growth on the scale of many African countries.L’objectif : L\u27objectif de cet article est d\u27analyser la relation entre la corruption, les droits de propriété et la croissance économique dans les pays d’Afrique subsaharienne.
Conception/méthodologie/approche: Le modèle utilisé dans ce travail est inspiré par Aziz et Asadullah (2016) et Walid et Kais (2019), dont la base théorique est la fonction de production Cobb-Douglas, qui comprend deux composantes majeures, à savoir le travail et le capital et d\u27autres facteurs institutionnels. Ainsi, l\u27analyse de l\u27interaction entre les droits de propriété, la corruption et la croissance économique est effectuée à l\u27aide d\u27un modèle VAR en panel.
Résultats: Les résultats montrent que la corruption a un effet positif sur la croissance économique alors que la croissance économique n\u27a aucun effet sur la corruption. Les droits de propriété favorisent la croissance économique tandis que la croissance économique ne contribue pas à protéger les droits de propriété. La corruption a un effet négatif sur les droits de propriété tandis que les droits de propriété n\u27ont pas d\u27effet sur la corruption.
Originalité/valeur : L’originalité réside dans l’analyse du rôle ambigu de la corruption en lien avec les droits de la propriété, et la croissance économique à l’échelle de nombreux pays africains