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The EU Danube Strategy as an Element of Geopolitical Enclosure from Russia
No full textIn the current geopolitical competition between the EU and the Russian Federation subregional cases are not always visible. At the same time, they play an important role both in shaping the future architecture of international relations in Europe and in understanding the common logic of the EU’s actions. One of such cases is the intention clearly articulated by Brussels of turning the Danube into an “internal river” of the EU. The article examines the Danube Strategy of the EU through the prism of the classical theory of realism based on a historical and comparative approach from a geopolitical perspective. The article substantiates the continuity and place of management of the Danube in the general logic of the development of relations between Russia and its European partners/competitors. It is examined in detail how the Danube management system is shifted from the organization of multilateral cooperation – the Danube Commission – to the internal management mechanisms of the EU. It is concluded that the EU Danube Strategy is not only complementary to the Green Deal and the strategy for the development of pan-European transport corridors, but also to the EU’s militarization policy as a whole. However, looking back, it can be stated that the periods of Russia’s absence from the Danube were never long, but have always been associated with increasing tension and the emergence of new lines of sub-regional confrontation, while the transformation of the Danube into a kind of a “bridge” of Europe has always brought obvious benefits to both the coastal states and the stability of the European architecture of international relations as a whole
China’s Global Efforts to Achieve Un Sustainable Development Goals: The Case of Juncao Technology
No full textThe United Nations (UN) adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
Development in 2015 as the most significant agreement reached by the
international community on green energy, healthcare improvement, eradicating
poverty, gender equality, and other development goals. On the internal level,
China has achieved considerable results in the realisation of some sustainable
development goals (SDGs). This paper is focused on China’s global efforts to
achieve the SDGs. It highlights China’s Global Development Initiative, which aims
to support the timely achievement of all 17 SDGs of the 2030 Agenda by
revitalising global development partnerships and promoting stronger, greener,
and healthier global development. The paper also points out significant steps
in greening the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and taking measures like reducing
climate emissions, reducing pollution, and protecting biodiversity. The central
part of the paper is dedicated to Juncao, a technology developed in China and
transferred to developing countries in the South Pacific, Africa, and Latin
America. Juncao is a hybrid grass that allows farmers to grow various edible and
medicinal mushrooms from dried, chopped grasses without cutting down trees
and damaging the environment. It helps combat land degradation by providing
fodder for livestock and minimising soil erosion. As such, Juncao technology has
the potential to achieve 13 of the 17 SDGs: eliminating poverty and hunger,
promoting food security, ensuring and increasing employment, tackling climate
change, protecting the ecological environment, child malnutrition, youth
unemployment, empowering women, etc. Juncao technology has become an important part of the agendas of the United Nations Department of Economic
and Social Affairs (UN DESA), the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), and
the World Food Programme (WFP).
The paper concludes that China has corrected some previous SDGs-related
mistakes and made serious efforts to help the UN realise the SDGs. Juncao
technology, developed in the 1980s, fits China’s efforts to achieve the SDGs,
especially in the global South
Serbia’s multi-vector foreign policy: the effects on trade with the European Union and Russia
No full textThe article delves into an analysis of the opportunities and risks inherent in Serbian foreign trade, emanating from the country’s multi-vector foreign policy. This study quantitatively evaluates the influence of the political rapprochement with Russia on Serbian exports to both Russia and EU, as its principal export market. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research reveals that the rapprochement with Russia, even in the long term, exerts a positive and significant impact on Serbian exports to Russia, while simultaneously avoiding adverse effects on trade with the EU. Given the integral role in the value chains of EU companies, this export orientation remains insensitive to Serbia’s foreign-political relations, as well as to various customary economic variables. The resulting recommendations for the Serbian government emphasise the imperative to prioritise essential state interests over an ostensibly ‘existential’ threat to the Serbian economy when making decisions about the direction of foreign policy
The limits of EU conditionality in the context of Serbia’s political cooperation with Croatia
Full text linkThis paper aims to examine the scope and results of the political cooperation between Belgrade
and Zagreb in the context of the European Union’s enlargement policy. The author argues that
the conditionality instrument in this regard has shown its limitations over the past decade. Apart
from being a consequence of external developments (such as the crisis mode of the European
Union), this is a result of the profound political changes between the two observed actors. On
the one hand, the asymmetry between Croatia and Serbia has increased as a consequence of
Zagreb’s EU accession and subsequent progress towards the inner circles of integration. On the
other hand, conservative and occasionally anti-European ideologies, sentiments, and actions in
Serbia have distanced it from what used to be its main strategic goal. This reveals the preference
of political elites for short-term political maneuvers, which produce immediate or quicker results,
over the longer-term planning required for Serbia’s EU accession. The authors consider that the
democratic underperformance in Serbia correlates with the lack of intention to accede to the
European Union (and, by default, cooperate more closely with member states like Croatia). The
authors use the comparative method and Europeanization approach to illustrate how the EU’s
actorness did not accomplish a convincing and comprehensive reconciliation between the two
largest former Yugoslav countries, as a result of aforementioned aspects
Globalno upravljanje u doba digitalnih rizika: kineska inicijativa za veštačku inteligenciju
No full textU ovom radu se analiziraju novopredložene inicijative Kine u
oblasti upravljanja veštačkom inteligencijom (VI) i razvoja digitalne infrastrukture, s fokusom na Globalnu inicijativu za upravljanje VI i Digitalni put svile. Kroz analizu političkih dokumenata, izjava vlade i postojeće literature, u radu se ispituju načini na koje se Kina pozicionira kao lider u upravljanju VI, istovremeno šireći svoj digitalni uticaj na globalnom nivou. Tvrdi se da dualni pristup Kine-promovisanje okvira za upravljanje VI i izgradnja digitalne infrastrukture u inostranstvu – omogućava Kini da oblikuje međunarodne norme i standarde u vezi sa novim tehnologijama. Ova strategija, međutim, pokreće zabrinutosti vezane za digitalni autoritarizam, tehnološku zavisnost i pitanja privatnosti.
Ispitivanjem interakcije između kineskih domaćih i međunarodnih digitalnih politika, istraživanje doprinosi razumevanju geopolitičkih implikacija VI i digitalnih tehnologija
Economic diplomacy in the function of export promotion: The effects in EU versus non-EU partner countries
Full text linkEconomic diplomacy can be considered a strong driver for
increasing the intensity and volume of international trade at
the bilateral level. The paper aims to examine the contribution
of economic diplomacy to international trade promotion by
applying the gravity model. The current literature indicates
an overall lack of empirical research regarding the effects of
Serbian economic diplomacy. Moreover, a new approach is
being introduced in the evaluation of economic diplomacy,
using the sScore index as a comprehensive measure of the
quality of bilateral diplomatic relations. The sample includes
all countries with which Serbia actively trades, and results
indicate that the quality of diplomatic relations contributes
to the promotion of Serbian exports. An additional analysis
was conducted on the individual effects of bilateral trade
with EU and non-EU countries. General conclusions were drawn in accordance with the political and economic
position of Serbia in the international framework, along
with recommendations for further export promotion
Europe’s Energy Security and the Conclusions of the Un Climate Change Conferences: Between Desire and Possibilities
Full text linkThe energy transition is one of the most important strategic objectives of
the European Union. Its implementation, primarily through the European
Green Deal, not only strengthens energy security but also leads to the
transformation of the entire economic system of the European Union.
Focused on 2050, by which time it aims at completing this process
and achieving climate neutrality, the EU seems to be paying less and
less attention to the real problems and shortcomings that make the
aforementioned strategy increasingly questionable. This paper draws
attention to the real problems that exist in the implementation of the
energy transition, as well as to the shortcomings that could cause European
countries to face major consequences in the coming period. The first
part of the paper is dedicated to explaining the European Green Deal
and the intentions of the EU, as well as the doubts that exist regarding
its implementation on the domestic level. The second part describes the EU’s initiatives within the framework of the Paris Agreement and
the US’s withdrawal from this international platform, while the third
provides an overview of the work of the UN Climate Conferences and
the competing strategies of different actors. The fourth chapter contains
concluding remarks
Creative Interpretation of International Law and the Status of Kosovo in International Relations
Full text linkThe case of Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence in 2008 is specific in many ways. Although some Western politicians and theorists claim that it is sui generis, the only thing that appears unique in this process is the creative interpretations of international law emanating from the U.S. and the EU. These interpretations created a new political reality, and thanks to this, the case of Kosovo
has become more complex than before
Evolucija strateške komunikacione kampanje NATO tokom agresije 1999. godine
No full textSuočena sa nepredviđenim intenzitetom otpora SR Jugoslavije i
internim poteškoćama, strateška komunikaciona kampanja NATO tokom
agresije 1999. godine bila je prinuđena na stalnu adaptaciju. Pripremna
faza agresije odvijala se u skladu sa selektivnom „politikom sećanja” na
Drugi svetski rat i sukob u Bosni i Hercegovini, kojom se pravdala
motivacija za agresiju usled evidentnog kršenja međunarodnog prava i
Povelje OUN od strane članica NATO. Takav pristup bio je na snazi do
početka ozbiljnijeg suočavanja sa „lažnim vestima” i „kolateralnim
greškama”, pre svega nakon bombardovanja kolone raseljenih Albanaca
14. aprila u okolini Đakovice. Suočeni sa pritiskom javnosti, najviši
rukovodioci NATO zemalja tada predaju rukovođenje strateškom
komunikacionom kampanjom Alisteru Kempbelu, „spin majstoru”
britanskog premijera Tonija Blera, sa ciljem slamanja otpora kritičkog
javnog mnjenja, pre svega u zemljama članicama. Sa intenziviranjem
pritisaka na Beograd da prihvati uslove za okončanje bombardovanja,
strateška komunikaciona kampanja NATO u poslednjim sedmicama
agresije prelazi u fazu fokusa na slanje poruka „terora” građanima SR
Jugoslavije, vojske i policije. Iz ugla postizanja cilja, strateška
komunikaciona kampanja NATO uspela je da nadvlada suparnika.
Međutim, gledano iz perspektive četvrt veka kasnije, ona je istovremeno bila vrhunac „unipolarne” nadmoći SAD i NATO, i okidač tranzicije
ka multipolarnom informaciono-komunikacionom poretku usled
lekcija koje su iz strateške komunikacione kampanje izvukle Ruska
Federacija i Narodna Republika Kina
Legitimitet međunarodnog poretka
Full text linkNaslov knjige „Legitimitet međunarodnog poretka” verovatno je kod čitaoca već izazvao barem malu dozu čuđenja. Postavlja se pitanje o kakvom to
legitimitetu, pa još i nečega nazvanog „međunarodnim poretkom” može
biti reči u savremenom dobu obeleženom velikim nesigurnostima i prilično
haotičnim, ratnim situacijama u više delova sveta, a već treću godinu se
s vremena na vreme razmatra čak i mogućnost nuklearnog Armagedona.
Ipak, poznato je da nesolidna vremena, kao što je naše, intenzivno podstiču
spekulacije, a uvid u postojeća teorijska razmatranja o fenomenu legitimiteta
u međunarodnim odnosima pokazuje da su i ova razmatranja bujala upravo
u ovakvim, prelaznim, transformativnim i tranzicionim vremenima.
Sa druge strane, konkretan povod za knjigu koja je pred čitaocima bila
je i jedna nesrećna godišnjica. Naime, protekla godina bila je 25. po redu od
rata NATO protiv tada SR Jugoslavije (1999). Tim ratom je tradicionalna
agresija posredstvom bombi inaugurisana kao humanitarna intervencija,
što je tadašnji Generalni sekretar Ujedinjenih nacija, Kofi Anan, propratio
kratkim opisom: „Ljudska prava su trijumfovala nad suverenitetom”. Nadalje
se projekat legitimizacije upotrebe sile u proklamovane humanitarne svrhe
vrteo oko fraze „ilegalno, ali legitimno”, mnoštvo tekstova je napisano na
tu temu, ali i 25 godina kasnije legitimitet i legalitet ovog koncepta ostaju
osporavani i u konkretnom slučaju i na širem planu međunarodnog poretka.
Povratak na širi plan međunarodnih odnosa i aktuelni kontekst poka-
zuju da se situacija potpuno preokrenula od 1999. godine do danas. Svet koji
je slavio humanitarne intervencije, tzv. zapadna međunarodna zajednica,
danas ne samo da toleriše genocidno delovanje Izraela prema Palestincima u
Gazi, nego čak dostavljanjem oružja postaje i saučesnik u njemu. Reklo bi se
da to pokazuje totalni moralni bankrot tog dela sveta koji se u prethodnom
periodu svima ostalima nametao grandioznim moralisanjem, dok Izrael još
jednom pokazuje svima zajedno koja valuta ima najveću težinu u međunarodnim odnosima. Pored toga, nekad proskribovani koncept suvereniteta
nad kojim su, prema Ananovim rečima, trijumfovala ljudska prava, danas se
ponovo pontifikuje ‒ u slučaju Ukrajine ‒ od strane istog tog zapadnog sveta.
Sa druge strane, Rusija, uglavnom konzistentni zaštitnik suvereniteta tokom prethodnih decenija, sada s ironijom koristi, između ostalih, ista zapadna
humanitarna opravdanja naspram ukrajinskog suvereniteta. I kao da već nije
dovoljno obrta, sa dolaskom za kormilo SAD Donalda Trampa, pokazuje
se da čak ni suverenitet američkih saveznika iz NATO ne mora da bude u
kamen uklesana stvar. Deluje da se ceo svet preokrenuo u odnosu na onaj od
pre tri decenije, ako slušamo šta se govori. Jedno je ipak sigurno: diskurzivni
arsenali, za koje mnogi veruju da su primarni pokretač društvenog i političkog života, nikad ne mogu da nestanu, za razliku od materijalnih arsenala.
U kontekstu opisanog anarhičnog stanja savremenog sveta, raspravljati
o ideji legitimiteta međunarodnog poretka nužno podrazumeva hodanje po
konceptualnoj močvari. Ipak, kao i drugi sporni misaoni koncepti, legitimitet uvodi pravo u najdublje jezgro međunarodnih odnosa. Tu se ovaj koncept
određuje u relaciji prema drugim spornim konceptima: moć, sila, suverenitet, pravda. Pred čitaocem je zato jedna interdisciplinarna, a u osnovi politikološka studija. Ne nastojim da pružim sveobuhvatnu intelektualnu istoriju
ideje legitimiteta u međunarodnim odnosima, koja je, ionako, u procesu
artikulacije. Namera mi je da raspravom koja sledi obeležim jedan period
velikog preuređivanja međunarodnog poretka, kada se čini da pitanje šta je
legitimno u međunarodnim odnosima postaje sve važnije kako se smanjuje
izvesnost