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China and deglobalization of the world economy
Get PDFThis paper analyses the causes of the downward trend in three key cohesion aspects of the world economy: international trade, foreign investment and global value chains. The paper shows that the causes of these trends are not cyclical, but structural; that is, it is the process of deglobalization of the international market, and transformation of the very foundation of the international economic system is underway. The specific aim of the study was to investigate the impact of current trends on China’s economy. The question is whether the Chinese economy, which has developed due to globalization processes, will be negatively affected by reverse processes, and to what extent. To capture the short-run effect of globalization-related factors on China’s economy, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was used. For estimation of the long-run linkage, the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration was launched. The results of testing the short-term effects showed that the new Chinese development strategy, aimed at protecting domestic economy from external disturbances, has produced excellent results. Significant changes in the Chinese development paradigm, as based on domestic production to meet domestic demand and financed by internal resources, have led to a decrease in the share of all international indicators in the Chinese economy. This is shown by both the statistical description of changes in the globalization-related variables, and it is confirmed by the results of conducted empirical research. Testing of long-term relationships has given conflicting results, so it is not possible to identify the long-term impact with certainty. Nevertheless, the parts of bounds testing that are statistically indisputable indicate a long-term, strong cumulative impact of these variables on the Chinese economy, while the direction and intensity of the action of individual variables are unpredictable. A new paradigm enables China to take a better international position as a global investor instead of a recipient of investments, to take over growing parts of global product chains instead of being their production link and to initiate a new form of globalization in the Chinese way
Pojam svetskog rata i njegova definicija
No full textPojmovno određenje je jedno od osnovnih pola zišta u
raz matranju fenomena. Imajući u vidu aktuelno pominjanje svetskog rata kako u domaćoj, tako i u međunarodnoj javnosti, autor ovog rada pozabavio se njegovim definisanjem. U pet poglavlja u tekstu predočena je važnost teme dve grupe pristupa u definisanju svetskog rata. S jedne strane su autori koji nastoje da obiljem uzroka objasne pojavu kojom se bave, dok drugu grupu autora čine oni koji nude netipična i u literaturi manje zastupljena rešenja. U četvrtom poglavlju je predočena analiza i sistema tizacija ponuđenih načina određenja svetskog rata, da bi u poslednjem poglavlju autor ponudio dve definicije, minimalističku i maksimalističku. Autor koristi uporednu metodu i analizu sadržaja
Položaj Rimokatoličke crkve u (drugoj) ružičastoj plimi u Latinskoj Americi: uporedna analiza Nikaragve i Brazila
No full textRad predstavlja komparativnu studiju položaja Rimokatoličke crkve u Nikaragvi i Brazilu u uslovima (novog) levičarskog talasa u Latinskoj Americi. Sa namerom razumevanja kompleksnosti stanja u kom se nalazi, i predviđanja budućeg političkog ponašanja, autor postavlja sledeće istraživačko pitanje: Od čega zavisi stav Rimokatoličke crkve prema levičarskim vlastima u Latinskoj Americi? Cilj rada je objašnjenje trenutnog položaja Rimokatoličke crkve u tzv. drugoj ružičastoj plimi, i predviđanje razvoja odnosa crkve i države u ovim državama. Hipoteza je da političko ponašanje Rimokatoličke crkve prema levičarskim vlastima, tj. opredeljenje za konfrontaciju ili saradnju, nije uslovljeno samo trenutnim stanjem njihovih odnosa, već, pre svega, dubljim institucionalnim i ideološkim odnosom crkve i države. Koristeći teorijsku postavku Danijela Filpota (Daniel Philpott), autor vrši komparativnu analizu odnosa Rimokatoličke crkve, tj. nacionalnih biskupskih konferencija, i levičarskih vlasti u Nikaragvi i Brazilu. U tu svrhu koristi metode analize sadržaja (ustava i zakona) i analize diskursa. Zaključuje da odnos crkve i države u Nikaragvi predstavlja konfliktnu diferencijaciju, dok je u Brazilu na delu konsenzualna diferencijacija. Autor predviđa da će u prvom slučaju Rimokatolička crkva, kroz otpor režimu, težiti demokratizaciji, a da će u drugom slučaju balansirati svoju, trenutno prilično dobru poziciju, zarad održanja trenutnog stanja
New challenges in connectivity cooperation between China and Europe (Liu Zuokui and Branislav Đorđević, eds., The Connectivity Cooperation Between China and Europe: A Multi-Dimensional Analysis, Routledge, 2023,pp. 282.)
Get PDFThe Relation Between China, North Macedonia and Serbia in the Changing Geopolitical Context
No full textThe research report in front of you is a thorough analysis that answers
many questions about current international relations. It does so not only
from the perspective of interstate cooperation as a classic model in
international relations but also from the perspective of the relations
between citizens and the state and how citizens perceive this multi-sector
cooperation of states in international relations. This approach is at the core
of critical geopolitics, which is at the centre of the research as a response
to the current changing geopolitical context and security environment.
Taking into consideration the fact that modern humanity is directed
towards democratic models of governance, while at the same time
respecting all the historical peculiarities of the subjects of international law
and thus the different "nuances" in the understanding of democracy, in this
work, based on the research conducted in the social framework of North
Macedonia and Serbia, we have shown and proved how modern tendencies
of interstate cooperation are not directly and always dependent on
geographical criteria but directed towards a new understanding of reality
in a globalised world, in which the quality of interstate cooperation, apart
from economic, is also measured by numerous other parameters that
greatly contribute to the realisation of the national interests of each
individual country.
The current state of international relations, the changes in the existing
geopolitical context, and the increasing challenges, such as hybrid threats,
health crisis, energy crisis and financial and investment crisis faced by
modern humanity, most of which do not recognise the national borders of states, represented the main determinants in this research. On the basis of
the relationship between the People's Republic of China and North
Macedonia, on the one hand, and Serbia, on the other, we have
demonstrated that interstate cooperation in contemporary international
relations is based not only on the willingness to provide mutual support in
emergency situations and understanding of the challenges faced by each
individual subject of international law, but also on multiple loyalties in
uncertain circumstances.
The cooperation between the People’s Republic of China and North
Macedonia and China and Serbia, especially in the context of the continual
geopolitical transition of power from the West to the East, and its
development in various forms in diverse areas, including the fields of
finance and investments, energy, health, and security and defence is a great
case in point.
Through our analysis of these relations, we have shown that interstate
cooperation in modern international relations is not just about being ready
to help each other in emergencies and knowing what problems each actor
in the international system faces. It's also based on having multiple
loyalties in situations that are hard to predict, which is becoming more and
more common in the modern world.
We used a lot of different methods to come up with results that aren't that
unusual from the public's point of view, but they do mark a new stage in
the science of international relations. This is because the intensity of
interstate relations doesn't always lead to the realisation of national
interests. Instead, it leads to friendship and honest cooperation at the
international level, which, according to the theory of international relations,
is more important.
In fact, with this research on the People's Republic of China's relations with
North Macedonia and Serbia in contemporary international relations as a
case study, we opened a new space for academic discussion on the relations
between big and small states in contemporary international relations and
challenged the idea that relations between big and small states are always
founded on an asymmetrical basis. More specifically, our main idea was
to put forward the thesis that it is realistic for these relations to be
established on an equal footing, despite the great economic, political, and
military differences that exist when we look at them through the lens of
power.
In the contemporary geopolitical and security environment, the study's
findings provide a new framework for academic discourse and the study
of international relations. On the other hand, this research study gives
opportunities for decision-makers and creators of foreign policy strategies
of both large and small states to define new directions and guidelines in
the development of interstate affairs. These changes can be the foundation
for a new phase of international relations that could contribute to achieving
the national interests and foreign policy objectives of great powers while
respecting the national interests and foreign policy objectives of smaller
states
Strateška stabilnost u multipolarnom svetu (Marina Kostić Šulejić, Strateška stabilnost u multipolarnom svetu, Institut za međunarodnu politiku i privredu, Beograd, 2022, str. 259.)
Get PDFEkonomija otpora i nastajanje novog svetskog ekonomskog poretka
No full textPredmet istraživanja su sistemske promene svetskog
ekonomskog poretka, kako one koje su dovele do formiranja međunarodnog ekonomskog sistema u sadašnjem obliku, tako i aktuelni procesi koji vode njegovoj dezintegraciji. Najvažniji finansijski, ekonomski i geoekonomski mehanizmi koji su omogućili uspostavljanje ekonomskog poretka zasnovanog na dominaciji razvijenih zemalja Zapada se odnose na: 1) ukidanje
zlatnog standarda 2) uspostavljanje mehanizma petrodolara, i 3) zamena uloge nacionalne privrede dominacijom transnacionalnih kompanija. Ove pojave su identifikovane kao osnove unipolarnog sistema svetske privrede. Kako uspostavljen sistem predstavlja kočnicu daljeg razvoja privreda izvan dominirajuće strukture, nove sile u usponu (BRIKS i druge),
uspostavljaju paralelne ekonomske mehanizme, koji prevazilaze postavljena ograničenja. U članku su ovi procesi na zvani uslovno ekonomijom
otpora. Ovi procesi nisu uzrok dezintegracije postojećeg poretka, već
prepreka za njegovu ponovnu restruktu raciju i osnova multipolarnog
ekonomskog poretka u nastajanj
Dvadeseti vek kao doba ekstrema (Erik Hobsbaum, Doba ekstrema (istorija kratkog dvadesetog veka 1914–1991), Dereta, Beograd, 2002, 472.)
No full textTurska politika prema ukrajinskom sukobu: između balansiranja i posredovanja
No full textU savremenim okolnostima intenziviranih i dalekosežnih
tranzicionih procesa, praćenih erozijom formalnih i neformalnih
pravila, opštom polarizacijom i zabrinjavajućim porastom
militarizacije i nepredvidivosti u ponašanju aktera, značajno je
ograničena sposobnost ne samo predviđanja već i spoznaje aktuelnih
fenomena. U tom smislu i državno-nacionalno usmerenje Turske,
uključujući njen odnos prema Zapadu, Rusiji, islamskom svetu i
nezapadnim akterima predstavlja interesantnu teorijsko-empirijsku
jednačinu. Spoljnu politiku Turske odlikuje visok stepen
kompleksnosti, višeslojnosti i ambivalentnosti koji nadilazi
uobičajeno prisustvo ovih kategorija u sferi međunarodnih odnosa.
Indikativan primer i izvesnu potvrdu ove tvrdnje predstavlja složen
odnos Turske prema ukrajinskom sukobu. Polazeći od šireg istorijskog
i geopolitičkog konteksta, strategijskog usmerenja i regionalne
pozicije Turske, članak prvenstveno teži da prepozna determinante i
karakteristike, a potom i motive i konkretne aktivnosti njene
politike prema relevantnim dimenzijama, činiocima i akterima
ukrajinskog sukoba. Nakon sažetog prikaza višestrukog značaja
Ukrajine, istraživačka namera usmerena je ka pokušaju definisanja
složene pozicije Turske, sa osvrtom na ispitivanje delotvornosti i
ograničenja njene pozicije zasnovane pretežno na principu
balansiranja i pokušajima diplomatskog posredovanja
Klimatske promene i sistem zaštite klime: od globalnog (preko regionalnog) do nacionalnog
No full textCilj rada je sagledavanje ključnih elemenata sistema savremene politike i prava u oblasti klimatskih promena, kao jedinstvenog sistema koji čine subjekti na različitim nivoima (od globalnog, preko regionalnog do nacionalnog). U uvodnom delu rada ukazuje se na globalne karakteristike klimatskih promena i daju metodološke napomene. Prvi deo posvećen je razmatranju osnovnih elemenata globalne politike i prava u oblasti klimatskih promena u svetlu ukazivanja na važnost sistemskog pristupa pravnoj zaštiti klime. Analiziraju se odredbe međunarodnih ugovora: Okvirne konvencije UN o promeni klime (Okvirna konvencija), Kjoto protokola (KP), Pariskog sporazuma o klimi (PS), kao i drugih relevantnih međunarodnih ugovora. U drugom delu rada analizira se pitanje mesta koje regionalni subjekti imaju u globalnoj politici. Daje se osvrt i na način izvršavanja preuzetih međunarodnih obaveza u nacionalnim propisima odabranih država, odnosno Srbije, Crne Gore i Hrvatske. Osnovna polazna pretpostavka u istraživanju jeste ta da, pravni sistem u oblasti klimatskih promena predstavlja jedinstven sistem čije su osnove definisane međunarodnim ugovorima na globalnom nivou, dok sprovođenje, primarno, obezbeđuju države članice. S tim u vezi, zaključuje se da uloga „regiona” i mogućnost regionalnog povezivanja nisu na jasan način naglašeni, osim u delu koji se odnosi na „regionalne organizacije ekonomske integracije”. Osim toga, konstatuje se da bi pitanje uloge „regiona” trebalo detaljnije regulisati u kontekstu osiguranja sistemskog i integrativnog pristupa u međunarodnom pravu