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Urbanization without Industrialization : Evidence from US Bases in Okinawa
No full textWe examine how the inflow of external income shapes the pattern of urbanization and the economic structure. We focus on the unique case of Okinawa in Japan, where many US military bases were constructed for strategic reasons and the income inflow from them accounted for up to 40% of the aggregate income. Using newly digitized data, we first document rapid urbanization near the bases, driven by service sector expansion rather than manufacturing. We then develop a new quantitative spatial model and calibrate it to the Okinawan economy in 1970. Our counterfactual analysis highlights that the US-base related income was crucial to urbanization without industrialization. Contrary to Dutch disease concerns, we find that such urbanization without industrialization significantly increased aggregate income and welfare.日本学術振興会25K00629現代日本経済の諸問題とその規定要因：戦争の歴史的影響に着目してYamagishi appreciates the financial support from Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, the Funai Foundation for Information Technology, and JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP25K00629
Biodiversity Risk Disclosures and Stock Price Crash Risk
No full textThis study investigates whether biodiversity risk disclosures reduce stock price crash risk, exploiting the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures’ (TNFD) early adopter announcement as a quasi-natural experiment. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we find that TNFD adoption significantly reduces crash risk among Japanese firms. Our findings highlight biodiversity risk disclosures’ unique and complementary role, underscoring their importance in enhancing market transparency and mitigating downside risk.Japan Society for the Promotion of Science21H04394日本企業の財務特性に関する実証研究：「ガバナンス改革」と既得権益の相克の観点からThis study is financially supported by the JSPS KAKENHI: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research A (Grant numbers: 21H04394)
The Impact of Academic and Vocational Tracks on Wage Levels
No full text日本学術振興会23KJ0971職業学科を媒介とした職業再生産の社会的メカニズム本研究は JSPS 科研費 JP23H05402の助成を受けた。また、本研究は JSPS 科研費特別推進研究事業（課題番号 JP23KJ0971）の助成による成果の一部 です
Die Strafbarkeit der Beihilfe zur Einfuhr von Drogen : Zum Urteil des Obergerichtes Tokio vom 30. 03. 2020
No full text葛野尋之先生 名誉教授称号授与記念In Bezug auf den Empfänger des gescheiterten Drogenimports verneinte dieses Urteil einen psychologischen Kausalzusammenhang hinsichtlich des Versandaktes nach Japan, bejahte jedoch einen physischen Kausalzusammenhang, der auf der objektiven Existenz des Empfängers zum Zeitpunkt des Versandaktes beruht. Das Urteil erkennt die sogenannte heimliche Beihilfe an und stimmt in dieser Hinsicht mit der herrschenden Meinung überein. Das Urteil ist jedoch in dreierlei Hinsicht problematisch : Erstens hätte unter den hier gegebenen Umständen keine physische Kausalität anerkannt werden dürfen. Zweitens ist die Schlussfolgerung, die zur Leugnung der psychischen Kausalität führt, zwar an sich gültig, die ihr zugrunde liegende Argumentation ist jedoch nicht stichhaltig. Drittens ist es im Ergebnis unverhältnismäßig, dass der angeklagte Empfänger verurteilt wird, während gegen die Person, die ihn zu dem Empfang der Drogen lieferung aufgefordert hatte, keine Anklage erhoben wurde
Good Luck or Not : Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy
No full textThis paper evaluates whether the Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s “Inflation-Overshooting Commitment” can work to raise inflation rates by over 2 percent to end the zero interest rate policy or whether cost-push shocks luckily give a chance of high inflation rates for the BOJ to escape a liquidity trap. We show that the Taylor-type rule can not replicate inflation overshooting, even though the zero interest rate policy continues as the BOJ’s monetary policy. However, the Taylor-type rule achieves about a 2 percent target in the end, and the cost-push shocks work as good luck to induce high inflation data and justify the escape from a liquidity trap. In the case of the price-level targeting policy, inflation rates increase by more than 2 percent, and the zero interest rate policy continues even after inflation rates sufficiently exceed 2 percent. Under the price-level targeting policy, the cost-push shocks give little good luck in terminating the zero interest rate policy earlier. Our simulation results imply that the BOJ successfully excludes the effect of positive cost-push shocks to implement the exit policy and conducts the history-dependent policy under inflation-overshooting commitment. Our results do not change for a variety of Japanese parameters for the anchored level of inflation rate, elasticity of demand to real interest rate, and inflation persistence. Moreover, the augmented Taylor-type rule with a strong history dependence can work as a price-level targeting policy
Asset Pricing Interpretations of the Primary Fiscal Balance : The Case of Japan
No full textChien et al. (2025) state controversially that the Japanese government has exploited available arbitrage opportunities, and that it has backed its huge liabilities by high financial assets and fiscal claims. A major empirical ground for their statement is that the government reduced its net liabilities substantially by earning enormous capital gains from domestic and foreign risky assets from the mid-2010s through to the mid-2020s. Employing a net liability version of the primary fiscal balance (PFB), we prove theoretically that only if arbitrage opportunities are available to the government, high assets and claims the government is currently holding may improve the discounted PFB. However, we empirically demonstrate that there is no strong evidence for the presence of arbitrage opportunities for the government, and that its net positions bear at most moderate . These theoretical and empirical findings contradict Chien et al.’s statement
Building Japan’s Monetary Policy Database
No full text特集：金融政策に関する実証研究の展開【コラム】本コラムでは、著者が2024 年から立ち上げ、定期的にアップデートを行っている「日本の金融政策関連データサイト」の内容について、一般向けに分かりやすく解説する。This essay briefly introduces “Japan’s Monetary Policy Database,” which the author built in 2024 and updates regularly