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Estimation of Firms’ Inflation Expectations Using the Tankan DI
No full text特集：金融政策に関する実証研究の展開【論文】本稿では，わが国の企業のインフレ予想について，日本銀行の「短観」（全国企業短期経済観測調査）の結果を用いて，1990年以降の長期時系列を推計する．短観では，「消費者物価のインフレ予想」と「自社の販売価格のインフレ予想」の系列は2014年までしか遡れない一方，「自社の販売価格判断DI」は長期の時系列が蓄積されている．これらの系列の2014年から2022年までの関係を用いて，1990年から2013年までの自社の販売価格判断DIから，同時期の消費者物価のインフレ予想（1年先）を推計する．こうして得られた企業のインフレ予想は，消費者物価インフレ率の予測において，インフレ率のラグや需給ギャップには含まれない，予測精度を向上させる情報を持ち合わせているほか，エコノミストのインフレ予想よりも予測精度を向上させることが分かった．This study uses the Bank of Japan’s Tankan (Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprisesin Japan) data to estimate the long-run time series of Japanese firms’ inflationexpectations since 1990. In Tankan, the series on “consumer price inflation expectations”and “output price inflation expectations” are available only from 2014 onward,while the “output price DI (diffusion index)” is available for a longer period. Using therelationships among these series in the 2014–2022 period, we estimate one-year-aheadconsumer price inflation expectations for the 1990–2013 period based on the output priceDI. The results indicate that firms’ inflation expectations contain information that enhancesthe forecast accuracy of consumer price inflation beyond what is captured bythe lagged inflation or the output gap, and that these expectations improve forecastaccuracy more than economists’ inflation expectations
Transformations in the Advancement and Autonomy of Inquiry Among High School Students Participating in a Regional Exploration Program: Developing a Community-Based Inquiry Program in Sakata City for Regional Revitalization
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Significance of Mergers and Acquisitions from the Perspective of Incentive Bargaining
No full text論説Mergers and acquisitions（M&A）change the combination of human capital providers and monetary capital providers. This article examines the incentive bargaining between human capital providers and monetary capital providers of both the acquiring company and the acquired company, which takes place when a change in combination occurs, and how the legal system influences this process. Not only corporate law but also securities regulation, tax law, and employment law significantly affect the decision on whether an M&A should proceed, as well as the choice of legal form for the M&A. In the bargaining over terms, on the premise that an M&A will happen, management conflicts of interest, which are raised by the management of each company bargaining over the division of the pie as the agent of the monetary capital providers of each company, vary depending on the legal form of the M&A and whether the transaction is taking place in a friendly or hostile manner. To address the diverse management conflicts of interest, various corporate statutory laws and case laws have been developed in the US, the UK, and Japan. 134
