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Quantifying the Mortality Consequences of Climate Change : Evidence from Japan
No full textClimate change is projected to increase global temperature and bring about more frequent and intense extreme events including compound extreme events with especially large damage to communities. This paper examines the mortality consequences of climate change across 22 climate change indicators that capture not only shifts in the mean and extremes of weather conditions, but also the amplification of weather extremes when they co-occur and interact in compound extreme events. Using data from 1718 Japan municipalities in 1980-2019, I identify the leading climate drivers of mortality in Japan and quantify the climate-mortality relationship drawing on model specifications selected by LASSO. In addition to temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and humidity amplification in heat-and-humidity extremes all have significant impacts on mortality, with larger, non-linear effects at the heat extremes of the temperature distribution and both high and low extremes of relative humidity. The mortality responses to heat are concentrated in urban municipalities with no evidence of adaptation between early and late periods of climate change, whereas the mortality responses to humidity amplification are stronger in rural municipalities and fully concentrated in the early period of climate change. Over the study period in 1980-2019, the average municipality in Japan experienced a cumulative mortality of 120 deaths per 10,000 individuals from climate change, of which increases in temperatures contributed 129 deaths, increases in humidity amplification contributed 26 deaths, reductions in precipitation contributed 7 deaths, and reductions in relative humidity lowered mortality by 43 deaths.Japan Society for the Promotion of Science23K12463Quantifying the Mortality Consequences of Climate Change: A Machine Learning Analysis of Japan in 1972-2019The author acknowledges financial support from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (KAKENHI #23K12463)
Das Referendum in Frankreich aus der Sicht von Kooperation und Konflikt mit dem Parlament
No full textDieser Beitrag analysiert zunächst das derzeitige System der Gesetzgebung durch ein Referendum, das in Artikel 11 der französischen Verfassung von 1958 festgelegt ist. Dabei eröffnen sich neue Perspektiven für die aktuellen Debatten über das Referendum in Frankreich. In einem zweiten Schritt setzt sich die Untersuchung kritisch mit dem Entwurf der Verfassungsänderung von 2019 auseinander. Da es in Frankreich zwei Gesetzgeber gibt, das Parlament und die Bürger, analysiert dieser Beitrag die Gesetzgebung durch Referenden unter dem Gesichtspunkt der Zusammenarbeit und des Konflikts zwischen den beiden Seiten. Diese Beziehung hat sich mit der Verfassungsreform von 2008 grundlegend geändert. Die Analyse zeigt auf, in welcher Form das System insgesamt zu einer besseren Ausübung der Volkssouveränität beiträgt
How Did People Tweet against Inflation in Japan?
No full textDuring the chronic deflation era starting in the 1990s, Japanese inflation expectations were said to be firmly anchored at a very low level, say, around zero. These expectations seemed to have become something like the social norm. Households were quite against any price hikes, and as a consequence, firms hesitated to raise their prices — when they raised prices, they apologized for their misbehavior. People not only expected that prices would not increase, but also believed that prices should not increase. That social norm may have changed in response to inflationary shocks after COVID-19 and the Ukraine war. We applied a natural language processing technique to tweets that commented on price hikes and found an increase in posts after 2021 that accepted price hikes for various goods. Some of these posts indicated even positive feelings and mentioned salary hikes.Japan Society for the Promotion of Science24K04882低金利と財政維持可能性JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 23H00050 and 24K04882 supported this work
Unions in Developing Countries
No full textThe effects of trade unions on firm performance are theoretically ambiguous. The sizable empirical literature on their effects is almost exclusively confined to developed countries, particularly those in North America and Europe. We contribute to the literature by estimating union effects on firm performance in about 40,000 firms in 77 developing countries between 2002 and 2011. In doing so, we exploit standardized firm level data collected by the World Bank. We find positive partial correlations between unionization and firm labor productivity and wages, especially in lower-income countries. These positive effects persist when we instrument for union presence, consistent with recent evidence of union positive effects on productivity and wages in western industrialized countries.Japan Society for the Promotion of Science25H00541生産性と労働環境改善のための先端的政策評価分析This research was supported by the Joint Usage/Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University (#IERPK2519) and JSPS Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (#25H00541)
How to Increase Women’s Representation in Surgery? : The Effects of Mandatory Residencies on Female Physicians’ Specialty Choices
No full text【コラム】本コラムでは、著者らが2024年に発表した学術論文 Tsunao Okumura, Yuko Ueno, and Emiko Usui. "Effects of Mandatory Residencies on Female Physicians’ Specialty Choices: Evidence from Japan’s New Medical Residency Program," Labour Economics , （2024 年 5月）の内容を一般向けにわかりやすく解説する。This essay provides a brief introduction to the article, “Effects of Mandatory Residencies on Female Physicians’ Specialty Choices: Evidence from Japan’s New Medical Residency Program,” by Tsunao Okumura, Yuko Ueno, and Emiko Usui, published in the Labour Economics in May 2024
Does algorithmic recommendation complement or substitute advertising and influencers? Consumer attitudes toward recommendation information and the formation of purchase intentions
No full text株式掲示板テキストを活用したリターン予測における独立成分分析を利用した解釈性の向上
No full text日本学術振興会24K15066述語論理に基づくデータベース照合による厳密かつ高精度・高速な事実検証システム日本学術振興会22K21303情報検索タスクのための大規模汎用クエリ-文書言語モデルの実現本研究の一部は，JSPS 科研費（基盤研究 (B) (課題番号: 23H03686)，基盤研究 (C) (課題番号: 24K15066)，研究活動スタート支援 (課題番号: 22K21303))の支援による
