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Monetary Policy Surprises, Investment Opportunities, and Asset Prices
No full textThesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2015I use changes in Federal funds futures rates on days of FOMC announcements to isolate monetary policy shocks. Recent evidence suggests that contractionary (positive) monetary policy shocks increase expected excess market returns. All else equal, standard intertemporal asset pricing theory predicts that these shocks should therefore earn a positive risk premium as long-lived investors will pay to hedge against decreases in expected returns. Consistent with this prediction, I find that a mimicking portfolio for these shocks earns positive average excess returns, and along with the market factor prices portfolios formed on size, book-to- market, and momentum with an R2 of 86%. The policy shock portfolio also eliminates the alphas of value and momentum factors
Variability and Asynchrony in Salmon Returns: Implications for Monitoring and Ecosystem Services
No full textThesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2015Pacific salmon are well-known for their unique life-history characteristics, complex population structures, and the wide range of ecosystem services they provide. Variability in life-history characteristics across and within species, along with their tendency to return to their natal sites, leads to phenotypically distinct populations that create portfolios of populations within watersheds. Pacific salmon are important for supporting valuable fisheries and for supporting key ecosystem processes in the marine and freshwater environment. Alaskan sockeye salmon populations display overall population stability despite large commercial harvests, a characteristic that has been attributed to their intact population complexity. Those fish that are not captured by the commercial fishery support key ecosystem processes in freshwater environments. This yearly, pulsed, resource subsidy provides a reliable source of food and nutrients to the watersheds where sockeye salmon spawn and die. These complex populations may pose challenges for management due to difficulties separating the contributions of individual populations or habitats to the overall population complex (or portfolio). In Chapter 1 we used abundance data for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) spawning in a set of eight streams in the Wood River watershed, southwest Alaska, to demonstrate how natural patterns of variability affect the ability of fixed assessment windows to characterize the contribution of an individual spawning population to the entire portfolio. Additionally, simulated data are used to explore how different levels of synchrony and autocorrelation affect the ability of monitoring schemes to estimate the contributions of individual populations to a portfolio. We find that the ability of fixed assessment windows to characterize a population’s contribution to a portfolio is distinctly limited; asynchronous or independent dynamics among populations in a portfolio, and the presence of autocorrelation that creates slow changes in productivity, weaken the ability to characterize a stream's potential contribution to a portfolio. These results suggest that the structure of complex portfolios, and the presence of directional changes in productivity within individual populations, need to be taken into account when carrying out environmental risk assessments that aim to measure the contribution of an individual population or piece of habitat to dynamics observed at broader spatial and temporal scales. The reliable yearly pulse of marine-derived nutrients, in the form of spawning salmon, provides inland freshwater habitats with food and nutrients in the form of live fish, their gametes, and their carcasses. The highest quality food is provided by live fish and their eggs, which are important food sources for resident fish, bears, and birds, are only available for a short period. While the effects of this specific resource pulse are widely appreciated, little attention has been paid to the role that timing plays in conferring benefits to consumers, and previous research has mainly focused on biomass as the main control on the magnitude of effects. In Chapter 2 we used multiple in-stream counts of adult sockeye salmon abundance within the spawning season, and tagging data to estimate in-stream life span, to estimate how the amount of time that consumers have access to live salmon as a food resource is related to the adult spawner density in an individual stream. Our results demonstrate that duration of salmon availability as a food source is non-linearly related to escapement; across 3 orders of magnitude of spawner abundance, salmon were available to predators from about 2 weeks to about 5 weeks. This saturating relationship indicates that higher escapement values may not translate to proportionally higher benefits for consumers when these benefits are available during a fleeting window of opportunity. This result demonstrates that ecosystem based fisheries management (EBFM) of anadromous salmon should assume that benefits inferred to consumers are inherently time-mediated, and the numerical benefits of increased salmon density will not be straight-forward to estimate. Conservation strategies to maintain a range of spawn timing across watersheds may be the most successful for maintaining the importance of salmon subsidies in watersheds
Eddy Circulation, Heat and Salt Balances, and Ocean Metabolism: Observations from a Seaglider-Mooring Array at Ocean Station Papa
No full textThesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2015Seagliders were deployed at Ocean Station Papa (OSP; 50N, 145W) in the southern Gulf of Alaska, augmenting a NOAA Ocean Climate Stations surface fluxes mooring and subsurface ADCP, from 8 June 2008 to 21 January 2010. Seagliders provided increased resolution of the three-dimensional temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen field surrounding the mooring, resolving horizontal gradients at scales relevant to local advection. This thesis concerns the analysis and interpretation of results from this time series, with application to 1) observations of eddy circulation unusual in comparison to typical conditions at OSP, 2) quantitative analysis of the temperature and salinity balances in the upper 200 m using least-squares methods, and 3) diagnosis of the balance of kinematics and net metabolism in the balance of dissolved oxygen. Geostrophic velocities estimated using Seaglider were moderate and poleward during 2008 before rotating counterclockwise and weakening in early 2009. Coinciding with the chance in horizontal circulation were observations of strong horizontal water mass gradients, downward isopycnal displacements, and vertical finestructure circumstantially consistent with subsurface thermohaline fronts. A likely explanation is the presence of a mesoscale anticylonic eddy; oxygen characteristics in the permanent pycnocline suggest that this feature originated to the south or west of OSP. A least-squares method was used to determine the velocity and diffusivity that best explained the integrated temperature and salinity balances. The least-squares solution velocity and diffusivity elements were in good agreement with a priori estimates or, in the case of diffusivity, with general expectations about the vertical structure and magnitude of turbulent mixing coecients in the upper ocean. Using the solution elements, the vertically- and temporally-integrated heat and salt balances were closed with mean square error that was a small fraction of the total variance. In the top 120 m, the surface heat input was balanced by cooling due to vertical advection; the resulting excess of salt was removed by horizontal advection. This combination of terms is contrary to the climatological concept of flow at OSP. The oxygen budget had similar character to the temperature budget shallower than 100 m and the salinity budget at greater depths. Horizontal advection was unimportant in the oxygen budget in the surface layer, but was a leading term deeper. Robust estimates of respiration were formed in the region deeper than the surface layer and shallower than the permanent pycnocline, giving a net apparent oxygen utilization of 1.2 mol O2 m-2 yr-1 (0.8 mol C m-2 yr-1). Given previously estimated rates of net community productivity of C in the surface layer in summer, this rate indicates that 30-50% of the organic carbon produced there during each growing season is respired before it can reach the deep ocean
Pastries, Pyramids, Promenading & Percussion: a journey toward alchemistical experiences as creative spirit a.k.a.: SYNKHRA, goddess of music & pie a.k.a.: some sort of hyper-detailed space-age mythology, full of fiber-swallowing girls and sun-kissed divorcees reminding everyone of their mortality
No full textThesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2015A thesis project employing digital video and sound to expose the ongoing intensities and ruptures experienced in Coley Mixan’s voice and body as a means to dispute (and parody) HER/their culture’s dominant norms and power structures. Mixan believes the acts of gender and sexually ‘coded’ norms run parallel to the phenomenon of signal disruption in digital media so the artist exaggerates glitches, errors and dramatics HER/their artwork as a metaphor for difference and anxiety felt continuously within HER/their body and mind [[(as a queer person)]]--exposing the flaws of identity compression that occur within American culture. A spiritual twist of sacred sound is added. And, of course, the journey toward completing the infinity of pie (homemade with Love and veganism). SUPPLEMENTARY FILES: a mixtape of music that inspires Mixan’s scores and an album composed, performed and lyric-written by Coley Mixan
Integrated circuit design to enable quartz free miniature wireless sensing systems
No full textThesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2015Emerging technologies such as Internet of Things (IOT) and Wireless Body Area Network (WBAN) demand wireless sensors with ultra low power consumption, low cost and previously impossible form factors. Moore's law is exponentially scaling down the size of CMOS circuits making them faster and cheaper. However, frequency references, antennas and power sources which are essential for wireless sensors do not benefit from such scaling. These components are increasingly becoming a bottleneck in achieving size/cost/power reduction in wireless sensors. Quartz crystal is the most commonly used frequency reference in radios. Quartz crystal is bulky, needs a complicated manufacturing process increasing cost and does not yield itself to integration with CMOS circuits. This has prompted circuit designers to look for MEMS based alternatives to Quartz crystals. While MEMS resonators are successfully replacing quartz in timing applications, a quartz alternative with stability / power consumption suitable for radio applications has not been reported so far. The first part of this thesis addresses this problem and develops circuits and systems to demonstrate an FBAR (thin-Film Bulk-Acoustic-Resonator) based quartz replacement. Circuit solutions to improve phase noise and temperature stability of FBAR oscillators are discussed. These efforts culminate in a 750 MHz FBAR frequency reference with a ± 3 ppm stability and 1.1 mW power consumption. The second part of the thesis addresses the challenge of power delivery to miniature subcutaneous sensors. At mm scale inductive power transfer efficiencies drop below 0.1 %. In applications where the implant is just below the skin optical powering becomes a viable option due to high transmission of skin at infrared wavelengths. We demonstrate an operational mm scale tag with optical power and data links across a pig skin barrier
Ottoman Reflections on Gender, Class and Race in Victorian England: Abdülhak Hamid Tarhan’s Finten
No full textThesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2015Abdülhak Hamid Tarhan (1852–1937), who spent more than twenty years of his life in London and India, was the first Ottoman author who made India and the British Empire a frequently visited topic in his literary works. This dissertation explores Hamid’s Finten (1886), his famous drama on London, along with his memoirs and letters that reveal his life in British India (1883–85) and London (1885–94 and 1897–1912). While Hamid’s observations on London and its social structure form the central stage of Finten, the British Empire with its imperial and colonial history provides its backdrop. Based on a close reading of Finten and Hamid’s writings on the British Empire, the dissertation analyzes and discusses class- and race-oriented distinctions that inform metropolitan social relations in Victorian England
Data-adaptive Estimation in Longitudinal Data Structures with Applications in Vaccine Efficacy Trials
No full textThesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2015-12This dissertation develops methodology for data-adaptive estimation of parameters defined on longitudinal data structures, while this abstract serves as an introduction to the material covered herein. The dissertation is organized into three related, but distinct chapters. Each chapter considers a similar data structure, wherein subjects are enrolled and followed over a period of time to obtain additional measurements, for example their failure status. During this followup period, subjects may drop out and therefore researchers are unable to observe the entire study population at all time points. Using the observed data, this dissertation develops asymptotically efficient estimators that may draw valid inferences on the original study population. Data from preventive vaccine trials serve as the motivation for much of the work in this dissertation. In such trials, subjects are randomized to receive an active vaccine or placebo vaccine and are subsequently followed over some period of time to ascertain infection status. This infection data may be augmented with pathogen genetic data. Scientific interest may lie in assessing the vaccine's efficacy to prevent infections of a certain genotype; this problem is considered in Chapter 1. Researchers may possess additional information on the expected incidence of an infection in the population under study. For example, such information may be ascertained from previous studies in the same population. In Chapter 2, we show how this information may be included in the estimation procedure to improve performance. The third and final chapter explores the construction of estimators that enjoy the unique property of being robust to model misspecification in terms of both estimation and inference drawn from the estimator
Chamber Music of Carl Nielsen (1865-1931) Honoring the 150th anniversary of his birth November 10, 2015
No full textConcert ProgramChamber Music of Carl Nielsen (1865-1931) Honoring the 150th anniversary of his birth
November 10, 201
The HEAR.US Project - Reducing Anti-Immigrant Sentiment and Myth Through an Online Awareness Intervention
No full textMaster of Social Work (MSW)The following is an online awareness intervention designed to reduce anti-immigrant sentiment and myth throughout the greater community by means of an educational toolkit. The foundation of this toolkit was designed using macro level theoretical intervention frameworks. The content is grounded in empirically based interpersonal communication strategies specialized in addressing anti-immigrant sentiment. The goal of this toolkit is to provide a source for humanizing and factual education especially for those who are unfamiliar with immigrant community members. The intervention achieves this goal by means of three specific elements: 1) Humanizing and inspiring personal stories from immigrants in the local community who have overcome structural and cultural barriers to reach high levels of success; 2) infographics designed to educate community members by presenting factual data which refutes common anti-immigrant myths; and 3) avenues for inspired members to become active in immigration related social change and learn more about the benefits of immigrants to any community. Additional documents include the "Supporting Rationale and Introduction to The HEAR.US Project." The HEAR.US Project toolkit may also be found by visiting the Tacoma Community House homepage and selecting the "Resources" tab: tacomacommunityhouse.or
Floating Metropolis: Resilient Infrastructure to Preempt Tsunami Inundation
No full textThesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2015-12Tsunamis and storm surges are some of the most destructive forces facing coastal cities. With the current rise in sea level, combined with the potential catastrophic impact of natural disasters, coastal regions of these urban centers will need to be redefined with the global environment in mind. Tokyo Japan is the largest urban zone in the world at a high risk for natural disasters. The 36 million individuals living there cope with minimal defense in the face of a worst case scenario. This thesis focuses on leveraging the 2020 Summer Olympics as a catalyst for a new development in floating infrastructure to protect the athletes during the Games and after the event, the residents of Tokyo. A large-scale modular system of floating platforms that address all needs of the city will be prototyped for the Olympics, then implemented on a larger scale post games as needed in a phased scheme that looks at potential risk and urban development impacting the region. The design will address structures long-term resiliency, and legacy from the Games, while preparing for what many scientists believe is the eventual transformation of urban coastal regions around the globe