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Back to Basics: Earnings Growth and the Relative Performance of Emerging Markets (Special Report)
Get PDFA long-term study of the prospects of emerging markets based on differential earning growth
The Day After: What if Latin America Devalues?
Get PDFThe prospect and implications of Latin American devaluation in the wake of the Asian crisi
Emerging Markets Earnings: The "Good," the "Bad" and the "Ugly"
No full textA long-term study of the prospects of emerging markets based on differential earning growth
Will Re-armament Wreck the 'Asian Miracle'?
No full textThe Asian miracle faces two external threats, both related to re-armament. One is that the regional arms race will trigger open hostilities. The other is that renewed conflict in the Persian Gulf will trigger an oil crisis, choking Asia’s energy-hungry economies. The immediate danger on both fronts is limited. In the Asia, tangible ‘peace dividends’ from growth still far outweigh potential ‘redistributional gains’ from war, whereas in the Middle East the Arab-Israeli peace process remains on course. The long-run risks, however, are significantly greater. Asian growth will eventually decelerate, which implies a far thinner cushion to soften political disputes
The Overshadow of Demography, the Prospect of Peace (צילה המאיים של הדמוגרפיה וההבטחה הטמונה בשלום)
Get PDFהמאמר נכתב ב- 1997 בעיצומו של הויכוח הממוחזר בין האוצר ובנק ישראל על שער הריבית. המאמר נשלח להארץ שנחשב באותה תקופה ל'מתקדם' ביותר בתמיכת עסקי השלום, ההייטק והגלובליזציה. למרות אופיו הנבואי, או דווקא משום כך, המאמר נדחה על ידי שטרסלר, העורך הכלכלי דאז. רק ב1999- הסכים הירחון מצד שני לפרסם את המאמר
Putting the State In Its Place: US Foreign Policy and Differential Accumulation in Middle-East “Energy Conflicts”
No full textThis is the second in a series of two articles looking into the interaction between differential capital accumulation and Middle East “energy conflicts.” Examining the historical record since the late 1960s, we find US policies to have been increasingly consistent with the coinciding differential interests of a Weapondollar-Petrodollar coalition of large defence contractors and oil companies. Contrary to aggregate views which emphasize the “national interest” or the broad imperatives of capital accumulation – but in line with the differential interests of these companies – US policies in the region seem to have contributed toward greater instability, imposed limits on the free flow of oil and led to higher unstable prices. Most significantly, every “energy conflict” since the late 1960s was preceded by adverse drops in the differential rate of the large oil companies, which then promptly removed in the wake of the ensuing crisis. While the US government was officially seeking regional conciliation, it passively or actively endorsed each one of these conflicts. The current peace drive between Israel and its Arab neighbours is overshadowed by negative differential profits for the oil companies and depressed weapon sales for the arms contractors. Left unresolved, these predicaments could eventually culminate in a new “energy conflict.
Israel and South Africa: Prospects for Their Transitions
Get PDFThe current transformations in both Israel and South Africa are driven more by global economics than domestic politics. This implies that the peace process in the case of Israel, and the transition toward a non-racial democracy and open economy in South Africa are much more resilient to political setbacks than is commonly assumed. By the same token, however, both processes are vulnerable to commodity price instability. Over the next few years, the prospects for both transitions are good. The longer-term outlook, however, will depend on whether standards of living rise in the Middle-East and employment growth accelerates in South Africa
From War Profits to Peace Dividends: The New Political Economy of Israel
No full textSince the late 1980s, Israel has been undergoing a profound transformation, characterized by reconciliation with its Arab neighbours and attempts to reintegrate into the regional economy, a transition from a militarized economy to open markets, and a decline of the collectivist ethos in favour of liberalism and free enterprise. This transition, we argue, is part of a world-wide shift from the 'depth' to 'breadth' of accumulation and the parallel globalization of ownership. In order to survive, the large Israeli corporations must substitute outward expansion for the old protectionism of a militarized economy, and give up domestic control in return for global alliances
The EMA Phoenix: Shorting on Market "Hype"
No full textA shorting model for emerging markets equities based on cycles of investors’ hype
From War Profits to Peace Dividends - The New Political Economy of Israel
No full textSince the late 1980s, Israel has been undergoing a profound transformation, characterized by reconciliation with its Arab neighbours and attempts to reintegrate into the regional economy, a transition from a militarized economy to open markets, and a decline of the collectivist ethos in favour of liberalism and free enterprise. This transition, we argue, is part of a world-wide shift from the 'depth' to 'breadth' of accumulation and the parallel globalization of ownership. In order to survive, the large Israeli corporations must substitute outward expansion for the old protectionism of a militarized economy, and give up domestic control in return for global alliances