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CHINA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ITS IMPACT ON REGIONALISM
Full text linkThe world and international trade may learn much from China\u27s remarkable economic rise in recent decades. The 21st century is increasingly called the ‘Asian Century’ due to China\u27s substantial impact on regional trade organisations, including the EU, NAFTA, SAARC, and ASEAN. Through investments in infrastructure, economic integration, and technical cooperation, China\u27s trading model, defined by bilateral and multilateral agreements, has changed the nature of regionalism. Initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have improved commerce and connectivity, which has promoted collaboration and economic progress. China\u27s involvement in the region has aided development and sparked worries about intellectual property, trade imbalances, and geopolitical problems. This research looks at the economic advantages and geopolitical difficulties of China\u27s trade policies and how regionalism will develop in the face of China\u27s expanding power.
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Rashied, Haroon Ur and Aziz Ur Rahman. 2024. "China’s Economic Growth and Its Impact on Regionalism." Margalla Papers 28 (2): 50-62
POST 2021 CHANGING STRATEGIC DYNAMICS IN AFGHANISTAN: IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN
Full text linkThe US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 changed Afghanistan\u27s strategic dynamics. The Afghan Taliban now control the whole Afghanistan and have taken some adverse measures that affect not only Pakistan but also regional and global security. After 2021, Transnational terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and East Turkestan Islamic Movement operate in Afghanistan with greater impunity and freedom. The Afghan Taliban also welcomed India to Afghanistan after 2021 to get financial assistance and support in reconstruction and development. But India’s renewed hybrid warfare from Afghanistan has seriously jeopardised the internal security of Pakistan. Pakistan-focused groups like TTP, BLA, and ISKP suddenly got reorganised under the umbrella of India in Afghanistan. They started a vicious cycle of violence against the civil and military installations of Pakistan in Balochistan and the ex-FATA region, besides attacks on the Chinese citizens to disrupt CPEC and slow down FDI to Pakistan. This article analyses the whole debate under the regional security complex theory, which evaluates that simple physical adjacency generates more security interaction among neighbours than among states located in different areas. Adjacency is potent for security because many threats travel more easily over short distances than long ones. The RSCT aptly applies to Afghanistan’s changing strategic dynamics and regional implications, focusing on Pakistan.
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Bukhari, Syed Munib Ali and Masood Ur Rehman Khattak. 2024. " Post 2021 Changing Strategic Dynamics in Afghanistan: Implications for Pakistan." Margalla Papers 28 (1): 198-210
DECODING BOTS OF TERRORISM IN BALOCHISTAN
Full text linkSince the withdrawal of the US / North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces from Afghanistan in August 2021, Balochistan has experienced a renewed wave of terrorism with improved organisational/operational capabilities and better-equipped Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF). The information environment of Balochistan has also undergone a rapid change in the last three years, with the Baloch population, especially the Baloch youth, becoming more accessible to the Baloch Nationalist Militant Organizations through a very efficient militant narrative creation dissemination system. This system of narrative creation based on the manipulation of facts and fabricated stories matched by a dynamic propaganda dissemination system is quickly replacing the facts with an alternative reality. It has also successfully replaced the national mainstream media and is becoming an alternative media choice for the Baloch population. The Baloch Nationalist Militant Organisations’ narrative has quickly gained popularity among domestic audiences and accrues credence from international media. An effective response mechanism is crucial to counter the far-reaching implications through a comprehensive and all-encompassing national effort.
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Iqbal, Jehanzeb. 2024. "Decoding Bots of Terrorism in Balochistan." Margalla Papers 28 (2): 63-77
IRAN’S AERIAL STRIKES: MOTIVATIONS AND PAKISTAN’S MEASURED RESPONSE
Full text linkThe January 16, 2024, missile and drone strike by Iran against alleged sanctuaries of Jaish al-Adl inside Pakistan’s province of Baluchistan provoked a short crisis between Islamabad and Tehran, culminating in retaliation by Pakistan on January 18, 2024. The lack of close coordination on their shared frontier, amidst severe issues of drug trafficking from Afghanistan, terrorism in Baluchistan, and Iranian concerns about infiltration, undermined a mutual understanding between these two countries. Pakistan was entirely surprised, never having been attacked by Iran before. Despite the strike during the election campaign to determine Pakistan’s next governing party and executive, Islamabad resisted retaliation until it failed to elicit a conciliatory explanation from Tehran. Iran’s attack was most likely the result of a hardline foreign policy initiative decided and implemented by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as part of its escalating conflict with Israel and the defence of the Houthis in Yemen. Following Pakistan’s measured and proportionate response, Tehran and Islamabad, encouraged by China, the US, Russia, and Türkiye, diplomatically defused the tension, and bilateral relations normalised.
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Schofield, Julian and Nasir Mehmood and Behrouz Ayaz. 2024. "Iran’s Aerial Strikes: Motivations and Pakistan’s Measured Response." Margalla Papers 28 (1): 45-57
CHINA, GLOBAL GOVERNANCE AND LIBERAL INTERNATIONAL ORDER: A NEO-GRAMSCIAN ANALYSIS
Full text linkChina\u27s ascendant position in International Relations has sparked a debate over the future of the US-led liberal international order. As China\u27s military, economic, ideological, and institutional influence continues to expand, apprehensions about its challenges to the existing global order and the evolution of China\u27s role in international governance have intensified. This research is qualitative and consults both primary and secondary recourses. From the neo-Gramscian school of thought perspective, this research explores the core relationship between China and the global order, delving deep into the historical context. Unlike traditional international relations theories, this research presents a historical and relational interpretation to present an alternative perspective on China\u27s rise. Elucidating this dynamic historical progression, this paper posits that China\u27s relationship with the world order has evolved significantly, moving from animosity and refutation in the post-independence period to compliance with Western ideals and institutions, integration into the international system and, more recently, to the pursuit of independent institution-building, global governance, and promotion of alternative world order. This paper concludes that while China has adopted a predominant role in shaping the rules of the international system, it is far from being a disruptive reformist. Thus, despite its global outreach, China does not seek to build a power centre that counters explicitly the Western liberal order but signals a gradual transition towards a multipolar order.
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Munir, Maheera and Faiza Abid. 2024. "China, Global Governance and Liberal International Order: A Neo-Gramscian Analysis." Margalla Papers 28 (1): 93-108
PAKISTAN-RUSSIA EMERGING COOPERATION: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES
Full text linkBilateral relations between states have always been dynamic and can go in either direction. For much of history, Pakistan and Russia have remained in a contained relationship, particularly during the Cold War. However, post 9/11, due to changes in Pakistan\u27s pro-Taliban policy, gradual ground for re-engagement has risen into prominence between Russia and Pakistan. But, because of the troubling history, both sides remained distant. However, for the past ten years, due to the change in the international order, both countries found each other in the convergence of bilateral relations. The research paper intended to employ the commercial liberalism branch of neoliberal institutionalism to evaluate emerging bilateral ties between Russia and Pakistan. Based on Immanuel Kant’s principle of universal hospitality, commercial liberalism sheds light on the importance of economic interdependence and free trade in sustaining peace. The impending challenges and compelling opportunities were discussed in this paper. The nature of bilateral relations sprouted from opportunities and challenges and was categorised into complementary and non-complementary bifurcation. Based on this division, the research has argued that the trajectory of emergent bilateral relations has ample space to grow and head upward. The study suggests that institutional mechanisms such as JMCC, JMC, and JWGs, with their potential to navigate challenges, offer reassurance in the face of potential obstacles in bilateral relations.
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Ali, Usman and Tauseef Javed. 2024. "Pakistan-Russia Emerging Cooperation: Opportunities and Challenges." Margalla Papers 28 (1): 141-160
ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR IN GAZA: REARRANGEMENT OF REGIONAL POWERS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MIDDLE EAST
Full text linkThe recent Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza and their persistent military campaign against each other, owing to atrocities and mass destruction, have drawn international attention to the regional politics of the Middle East. Recent regional political changes have been disrupted, such as Arab-Israel efforts to normalise relations after the Abraham Accords and the latest Saudi-Israel Peace Deal. The ongoing carnage in Gaza has pivoted Arab states’ interests away from the peace processes, thus shifting the regional as well as major powers’ alliance priorities. Iran, whose rapprochement with Saudia Arabia has begun, also warned of a pre-emptive attack against Israel should the latter invade Gaza. Most Arab states have shown solidarity with the Palestine cause; on the contrary, significant actors such as the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) have shown their support for Israel, as manifested by the veto of UNSC resolutions. From a structural realist view, as propounded by Kenneth Waltz, international politics can be explained through a system-level analysis. It highlights cause-and-effect relations that can be observed between the states, primary units, and the anarchical international structure. Keeping this in mind, such rearrangement of alliances in the Middle East indicates the prolongation and intensification of war amid anarchy in an emerging multipolar world. Moreover, the war in Gaza holds a high chance of regional spillover. In any case, the war that ignited Israel-Hamas tensions is likely to continue unless prominent actors’ mediation brings to light the root cause of the problem, which lies in the illegal occupation of Palestine.
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Safdar, Maira. 2024. "Israel-Hamas War in Gaza: Rearrangement of Regional Powers and Implications for the Middle East." Margalla Papers 28 (1): 161-179
CHINA\u27S MARITIME PIVOT: CPEC AND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA CONNECTION
No full textThe China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a critical component of China\u27s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with far-reaching implications for regional and global geopolitics. This study investigates the strategic significance of CPEC in China\u27s broader geopolitical strategy, particularly its South China Sea ambitions. The research question guiding this inquiry is: How does CPEC mitigate China\u27s trade security vulnerabilities in the South China Sea region, and what are the implications for regional dynamics and global trade routes? By analysing the impact of CPEC on maritime security, energy trade, and regional power dynamics, this research reveals the corridor\u27s pivotal role in enhancing China\u27s energy security, countering US influence and Indian concerns, and solidifying China\u27s position as a global economic powerhouse. The study also examines the challenges and opportunities arising from CPEC implementation, including its potential to reshape regional alliances and challenge existing global trade patterns. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of China\u27s geopolitical ambitions and the significance of CPEC in advancing its strategic interests.
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Alla Ud Din, Shi Xiaolian and Uzma Siraj. 2024. "China\u27s Maritime Pivot: CPEC and the South China Sea Connection." Margalla Papers 28 (2): 1-13
ASSESSING MILITARY NECESSITY OF AUTONOMOUS WEAPONS SYSTEMS (AWS) IN ARMED CONFLICTS: A CASE STUDY OF IRAN-ISRAEL
Full text linkRapid technological advancement has revolutionised the concept of modern warfare. The deployment of AWS has become a new high for military forces around the globe to get a comparative advantage over an adversary in any combat mission. This research aims to explain the military necessity of the Autonomous Weapons Systems (AWS) in an armed conflict. This study adopted the qualitative explanatory approach, whereas the data was collected from structured interviews, official reports, and journals. On the other hand, the case study Iran-Israel Missile Exchange has been considered to support the thematic analysis. Moreover, the study utilised the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) theory, which explains the dual impacts of using AWS in combat missions. However, the study’s findings reveal that the deployment of the AWS ensures military necessity for the forces in an armed conflict based on the tactical and strategic advantages. The deployment of the AWS enhances the overall operational effectiveness and gives forces leverage over their foes.
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Shahid, Dua and Ansar Jamil. 2024. "Assessing Military Necessity of Autonomous Weapons Systems (AWS) in Armed Conflicts: A Case Study of Iran-Israel." Margalla Papers 28 (2): 95-118
REVISITING THAILAND\u27S PARANOIA: SEATO AS A SAFEGUARD AGAINST VIETNAM SYNDROME
Full text linkDuring the Cold War, the opposing stances of the US and USSR caused a bipolar global system that lacked a unipolar centre of power, leading to a stronger centrifugal pull. The Vietnam War made Southeast Asia a hotbed for these tensions. Following the fall of French troops in Dien Bien Phu in 1954, the US aimed to solidify its position and successfully created the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) through the efforts of Secretary of State Dulles and like-minded nations. To explain the political implications, the Michael Brecher geographical framework has been chosen. This framework highlights the dominant and subordinate systems of international relations during the Cold War period and describes the operation and evolution of SEATO. By incorporating guidelines into the charter, the treaty zone became a space where signatories could resolve their issues. This reference framework helps to identify the causal determinant in the stimuli of an individual signatory. Despite being a group of countries with varied interests, the interaction between the US and Thailand during the Vietnam War showed that Thailand\u27s skilful aggregation of marginal gains resulted from its inherent paranoia against the Vietnam syndrome. Furthermore, the study reveals that Thailand had a significant influence in shaping Washington\u27s policy for Southeast Asia and used its gains as a launching pad to control the spread of Communism.
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Javed, Tauseef, Sun Jiandang and Ayisha Khurshid. 2023. "Revisiting Thailand\u27s Paranoia: SEATO As a Safeguard Against Vietnam Syndrome." Margalla Papers 27 (1): 138-154