145 research outputs found
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PAKISTAN’S WATER CRISIS AND ITS NATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS
Full text linkThis research examines Pakistan\u27s water crisis and its impact on national security, highlighting key factors such as population growth, climate change, and inadequate water resource management. The article emphasises the urgent need for thorough qualitative changes and improved infrastructure to guarantee sustainable access to clean water. This research employs a qualitative approach to examine the complex relationship between regional relations and water security, with a focus on Pakistan’s transboundary water challenges. Through securitisation theory, the study aims to analyse how water scarcity is framed as a water security issue, exploring the securitisation process and its implications for national security. Utilizing an explanatory research design and document analysis, this study comprehensively assesses both internal and external water security threats to Pakistan’s national security. Additionally, it highlights the importance of regional cooperation and diplomacy in managing shared water resources. Addressing the water crisis is an environmental concern and a vital national security imperative. A comprehensive strategy encompassing legislative changes, technical advancements, and international collaboration is required to mitigate the threat and protect Pakistan\u27s stability.
Bibliography Entry
Amjad, Sawaira. 2025. "Pakistan’s Water Crisis and Its National Security Implications." Margalla Papers 29 (1): 135-151
CHINA’S SLOW CONSUMPTION AND THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE BARRIERS: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EXPORT-LED MODEL OF ECONOMIC GROWTH
No full textChina’s export-led framework is experiencing internal and external challenges. Domestically, consumption has soared since early 2023, while the escalating trade barriers from the West have intensified challenges to export- and production-driven growth. Overreliance on exports and investment highlights the need for sustainable consumption at home and a stable trade regime abroad; however, in recent years, China has countered difficulties in both realms. While the binary of internal and external challenges is affecting the growth strategy, it can be an opportunity to catalyse the change China’s economy needs for sustainable growth. It is to be evaluated whether the intersection of an internal consumption slump and an external trade barrier can induce a change towards a more sustainable model for China’s economy. Therefore, this paper will discuss these two factors and analyse their potential implications for China’s export-led economic growth model.
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Malik, Ayesha A. and Jugnoo Aijaz. 2025. "China’s Slow Consumption and the International Trade Barriers: Implications for the Export-Led Model of Economic Growth." Margalla Papers 29 (2): 93-108
INDO-US STRATEGIC ALIGNMENT IN THE INDO-PACIFIC: CHALLENGES AND CHOICES FOR PAKISTAN
No full textThis article examines the implications of the Indo-US strategic partnership for Pakistan\u27s security and foreign policy choices. Because of their shared security interests, the United States and India have aligned to contain China\u27s rise in the Indo-Pacific Region (IPR). This partnership raises India’s power, status, and overall influence in the region compared to Pakistan. Considering the long rivalry between India and Pakistan—rooted in ideological, historical, and territorial disputes—this partnership raises the prospects of conflict in South Asia. Additionally, Pakistan-China-India and Pakistan-China-US triangulated relationships add layers of complexity, further diminishing the prospects for cooperation and peace, as a bilateral conflict between any two countries tends to involve the third. The complexities of the first triangle create a security dilemma, mutual distrust, and rivalry among the three regional powers, which, in turn, complicate the relationships within the second triangle. It is argued that the Indo-US partnership complicates Pakistan\u27s security dilemma, heightens the arms race, raises the prospects of conflicts, and encourages Pakistan to align with China closely.
Bibliography Entry
Khan, Aamir Hussain and Muhammad Arif Khan 2025. "Indo-US Strategic Alignment in the Indo-Pacific: Challenges and Choices for Pakistan." Margalla Papers 29 (2): 1-16
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AS NEW CAPITAL: GEOECONOMIC COMPETITION AND RESHAPING OF GLOBAL ORDER
No full textArtificial Intelligence (AI) is increasingly transforming core sectors of the global economy, encompassing semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, and digital finance. However, instead of deepening international cooperation, AI has accelerated strategic competition between the two top economies and tech leaders, the United States and China. Drawing on neorealist theory, this study examines how AI, as a capability multiplier and a form of relative power, is utilised by states to enhance their tech advantages in economic and security arenas, thereby creating a techno-geoeconomic security dilemma that enables the US and China to leverage each other. It explores AI’s relative capability concerns, prompting balancing measures, such as trade restrictions, technology blocks, and domestic technological initiatives. The tech oligarchs in Silicon Valley’s American Silicon Valley monopolise AI, data, and related technologies in pursuit of global hegemony. China, amid US export control bans, is developing its indigenous technologies (Chips, LLM models, supercomputing, etc.) through self-help efforts to ensure technological sovereignty. This study employs process tracing for policy analysis, explaining strategic preferences and sector-specific dimensions of competition, providing concrete empirical evidence across defence and geoeconomic domains. Findings reveal that the US uses semiconductor and AI chip export controls, financial chokepoints (such as the SWIFT payment system), and tech alliances to maintain its global pre-eminence. In contrast, China, as part of its balancing act, responds by creating e-CNY and CIPS as means for BRI partners. It concludes that such competition is driven less by economic prosperity or absolute gains than by relative gains and tech sovereignty to secure structural advantage in an anarchic international system.
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Bashir, Sonia and Zahid Mahmood Zahid. 2025. "Artificial Intelligence as New Capital: Geoeconomic Competition and Reshaping of Global Order." Margalla Papers 29 (2): 33-53
SINO-INDIAN MILITARY AND BORDER DISPUTES INCLUDING THE 1962 WAR: IMPLICATIONS AND LESSONS FOR PAKISTAN
No full textThe study aims to explore China-India disputes, their implications and lessons for Pakistan. Since 1960, China and India have border disputes that have led to several clashes. The genesis of border tensions can be attributed to India’s aggressive posture through the Forward Policy. China does not accept the McMahon Line and claims Arunachal Pradesh. India does not accept the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Western Sector and claims the complete Aksai Chin as part of India. Unfavourable settlement of the dispute in the Eastern Sector has grave strategic implications. Aksai Chin in the West is at the crossroads of politically sensitive regions and holds military significance as a launch pad. Despite years of conflict and unsettled border issues, both countries have remained engaged in economic activities, with China being India’s top trading partner since 2008. Border disputes based on competing claims, India’s approach towards neighbours, and the nature of relations are likely to be competitive. Both countries have signed multiple agreements to manage their border disputes; however, implementation remains limited due to mistrust.
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Baig, Sheraz, Syed Umad Ul Hassan and Habib Ullah Khan Afridi. 2025. "Sino-Indian Military and Border Disputes including the 1962 War: Implications and Lessons for Pakistan." Margalla Papers 29 (2): 17-32
PAKISTAN’S NATIONAL SECURITY CHALLENGES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IMPLICATIONS FOR DEFENCE SYSTEM
Full text linkThis paper explores the emerging challenges confronting conventional security paradigms, with a primary focus on the threats posed to the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) through an analytical framework and advancements in military technology. The manuscript examines the intricate relationship between remunerative financial stability and the state’s internal defence. The declining financial conditions pose a significant threat to various facets of societal functioning, and the reliance of national security on a robust economy is observable in the current geopolitical landscape. National security is a fundamental prerequisite for preserving state sovereignty, facilitated by strategically utilising economic resources, diplomatic engagement, military power projection, and political influence. The notion of national security is inherently dynamic, continually evolving in response to a shifting global environment. The fundamental state absorption is impossible to safeguard solely by the defence system\u27s might, particularly when economic development is overlooked. This paper scrutinises Pakistan\u27s deterrence strategy alongside the most significant conventional security threat posed by India, utilising a framework focused on the evolution of armament systems regarding catastrophic capabilities and enhancements in range, unmanned aerial vehicles, satellite surveillance, and other pertinent technologies. This paper examines the relationship between military fiscal allocations and economic development, considering both the presence and absence of armed conflicts (internal and external), with a focus on Pakistan and India. Ultimately, the paper examines potential strategies to address emerging security threats.
Bibliography Entry
Ashraf, Sadia. 2025. "Pakistan’s National Security Challenges and Economic Growth Implications for Defence System." Margalla Papers 29 (1): 1-17
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF COUNTER-VIOLENT EXTREMISM STRATEGIES IN SOUTH ASIA AND AFRICA: LESSONS AND PATHWAYS FOR SUSTAINABLE SECURITY
Full text linkThis article examines the threat of violent extremism and terrorism in South Asia and Africa, comparing counter-violent extremism (CVE) strategies to identify effective measures for sustainable security. It explores the sociopolitical, economic, and cultural factors driving radicalisation and terrorist activities in both regions. South Asian countries like Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India face extremism fuelled by historical grievances, political instability, and religious ideologies. In Africa, nations such as Nigeria, Somalia, and Kenya contend with groups like Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab, exacerbated by poverty, governance issues, and ethnic conflicts. The study aims to highlight successful interventions and the limitations of existing approaches, emphasizing the role of international organizations and regional bodies in shaping CVE efforts. By fostering collaboration between South Asia and Africa, the research seeks to develop comprehensive strategies to address the root causes of violent extremism and promote long-term peace and stability.
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Minko, Abraham Ename. 2025. "Comparative Analysis of Counter-Violent Extremism Strategies in South Asia and Africa: Lessons and Pathways for Sustainable Security." Margalla Papers 29 (1): 55-79
FROM TREATY TO WEAPON: HYBRID COERCION AND THE SUSPENSION OF THE INDUS WATERS TREATY IN 2025
No full textThe suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) by India in April 2025 marked a consequential shift in South Asian water diplomacy. It transformed a longstanding cooperative framework into a tool of hybrid coercion. This research endeavours to reframe the IWT as a strategic arena where legal thresholds, climate vulnerabilities, and hydro-technical design intersect to create leverage over downstream populations. It will analyse official statements, treaty texts, litigation records, and hydrological data to examine how India\u27s unilateral suspension manipulated treaty mechanics, signalled political intent, and withheld critical flow data without formally abrogating the agreement. Along these lines, the research will examine the faultlines in the treaty\u27s legal and technical architecture, the amplifying role of climate-induced water stress, and the suspension\u27s place within broader hybrid conflict dynamics. Furthermore, the subsequent ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration highlights the contested nature of the treaty along with the challenges of enforcing legal norms in the face of strategic manipulation. This research concludes that even though the IWT remains formally intact, it now requires urgent legal, technical, and cooperative innovation to prevent escalation, as it operates under conditions of strategic fragility.
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Niazi, Zubeda Anjum and Houria Sheikh. 2025. "From Treaty to Weapon: Hybrid Coercion and the Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty in 2025." Margalla Papers 29 (2): 109-130
REFRAMING CONTEMPORARY SECURITY: THE CONFLICT SEVERITY MAPPING FRAMEWORK (CSMF) AND THE DYNAMICS OF GLOBAL CONFLICT
No full textContemporary conflicts are hybrid and transnational, shaped by overlapping drivers of insecurity, unlike the conflict landscape of previous centuries, which was characterised by singular causes and isolated theatres. The existing approaches tend to categorise conflicts either as purely qualitative themes or through a quantitative lens, leaving a gap in the comprehensive understanding of the severity and nuances of contemporary conflict. This paper introduces the Conflict Severity Mapping Framework (CSMF), which combines a thematic lens (identity, fragile governance, resource competition, geopolitical rivalry, and hybrid risks) with a spatial lens (conflict clusters, strategic corridors, transnational flows, and emerging frontiers), derived from contemporary conflict arenas. By integrating these dimensions, the CSMF categorises conflicts into low, medium, and high severity levels, each corresponding to tailored responses ranging from preventive diplomacy to robust post-conflict recovery. Through illustrative cases and an inductive, case-based comparative method across six regions, the paper demonstrates how the framework moves beyond descriptive mapping to offer a prescriptive model that links theory to practice. In doing so, it provides policymakers with a systematic tool for navigating the complexity of contemporary security.
Bibliography Entry
Malik, Hiba. 2025. "Reframing Contemporary Security: The Conflict Severity Mapping Framework (CSMF) and the Dynamics of Global Conflict." Margalla Papers 29 (2): 68-92
PRINCIPLES, NORMS AND STRATEGIES OF THE US GLOBAL CYBERSPACE GOVERNANCE
Full text linkThis study examines the United States\u27 (US) approach to global cyber governance, including the principles, strategies, and norms the US intends to promote in cyberspace. This also discusses why the US is unwilling to share cyberspace governance with other great powers. While utilizing the official policies and strategies of the US as primary sources, this study identifies that the core principles of US cyber governance encompass a free and open internet, a multi-stakeholder approach, collaboration with allies, and maintaining a stable and secure digital landscape. However, it is criticised for its approach to data privacy, the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) control, mass surveillance programs against foes and allies, and its disagreement with other states on cyberspace governance.
Bibliography Entry
Ashraf, Nageen and Muhammad Nadeem Mirza. 2025. "Principles, Norms and Strategies of the US Global Cyberspace Governance." Margalla Papers 29 (1): 41-54