Scientific Annals of Economics and Business
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Evaluating the Effectiveness of Early Warning Indicators: An Application of Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Approach to Panel Data
Get PDFEarly warning indicators (EWIs) of banking crises should ideally be judged on how well they function in relation to the choice issue faced by macroprudential policymakers. However, the effectiveness of EWIs depends upon the strength of the predicting power, stability, and timeliness of the signal. Using a balanced panel of 6 countries’ experience with banking and currency crises in recent times, this paper evaluates the effectiveness of EWIs using Receiver Operating Characteristics. Following the drivers of the banking crisis and currency crisis, the paper evaluates the effectiveness of aggregate credit growth, sectoral deployment of credit along and other macroeconomic indicators generally used as EWI. The paper observes that credit disbursements to non-financial sectors and the central government provides stable signals about systemic risks. Further debt service ratio, interbank rates and total reserves are also found to be useful in predicting these crises. Lastly, the effective EWIs are combined using shrinkage regression methods to evaluate the improvement of signal strength of the combination of EWIs. The predictive power of the combination of EWIs provides better signal strength in predicting the macroprudential crisis
Time-Varying Structure of the Optimal Hedge Ratio for Emerging Markets
Get PDFEmerging markets are more exposed to risk than developed markets. Therefore, they require risk management using futures market instruments. This study aims to determine the hedging effectiveness of the spot index market risks in the stock index futures market in Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa, and Turkey. Measuring the hedging effectiveness level of futures markets is vital for these countries because investors must remain in the stock markets for the sustainability of the financial markets and economies. Weekly closing data for the period from January 2009 to October 2021 were analyzed via a dynamic method referred to as flexible least squares (FLS). Although the FLS results show that futures transactions provide high hedging effectiveness for all countries within the scope of this study, country-specific conditions may reduce the hedging effectiveness
Current Trends in the Application of EEG in Neuromarketing: A Bibliometric Analysis
Get PDFDespite several neuroscience tools existing, electroencephalography (EEG) is the most used and favoured tool among researchers because of its relatively low cost and high temporal resolution. Our study aimed to identify the global academic research trends of the empirical EEG studies in neuromarketing. This paper adopted the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) protocol to identify relevant articles. A bibliometric analysis software (VOSviewer) was used to evaluate thirty open-access articles found in the Scopus database between 2016 and 2020. We found that the USA is the most productive country with five research articles that used the EEG tool in marketing studies, followed by Australia, Italy, and Malaysia with three articles each. According to the most prolific journals in neuromarketing, it has been found that Frontiers in Neuroscience journal (CiteScore 5.4) is the most prolific journal with two articles and 25 total citations, followed by Scientific reports (CiteScore 7.1) with two articles and eighteen total citations, which lead us to infer that the publications’ number does not necessarily reflect the citations’ number. The study provides a profound and comprehensive overview of academic research that used EEG in marketing research
Inflation – Unemployment Dilemma. A Cross-Country Analysis
Get PDFAccording to Phillips’ study, there is an inverse link between inflation and unemployment. The major consequence of these imbalances lies in authorities’ ability to correct one of them, usually the unemployment, by influencing the components of the aggregate demand. Phillips' opinion is later countered by Friedman’s principle of currency neutrality. Together with Phelps, Friedman argues that, in the long run, the Phillips curve is vertical and any attempt to lower the unemployment below the natural rate leads to a simultaneous rise in unemployment and inflation. This paper aims to analyze the impact of the economic policy measures on the evolution of inflation and unemployment in the G7 countries, starting from the monetary criticism regarding the inefficiency of monetary impulses. In order to achieve this purpose, the developed econometric analysis tries to identify the existence and the direction of the nexus between variables, both in the short and long term, by using causality and cointegration methods, such as Granger, Granger-Wald and Johansen tests. Our findings support Phillips model on the short run, indicating that there is an inverse link between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate in the G7 states, during the analyzed period. However, on the long run, our results indicate that inflation and unemployment can coexist, fact that allows us to agree with the monetarist theories
Contagion risk in Equity Markets during Financial Crises and COVID-19: A comparison of developed and emerging markets
Get PDFThis study compared the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic on financial market contagion between developed and emerging markets. A DCC-GARCH model was employed to test the contagion effects of developed and emerging markets using weekly returns for the S&P 500 (US), FTSE-100 (UK), ASX 200 (AUS), IBOVESPA (BRA), BSE SENSEX (IND) and BVM IPC (MEX). The results showed that there was a persuasive case made for the integration of markets for efficient financial systems. However, a crisis occurring in one market holds significant repercussions for any of the connected markets. The findings show that the COVID-19 pandemic affected all the markets more severely than the GFC and contagion effects were more pronounced in emerging markets than in developed markets during the GFC and the pandemic. Consequently, policy makers in emerging markets should implement policies that reduce external vulnerabilities and improve their markets’ stability to reduce the impact of contagion
Impact of the Covid-19 Crisis on Service Enterprises and their Attitudes Towards Marketing Investments
Get PDFThe service sector has become the dominant sphere of market economies over the last forty years. The maturity of a country’s economy is directly related to the maturity of services as an economic sector. The immense growth across the service sector has also put mounting pressure on the competitiveness of service enterprises and their marketing activities. The turn of the millennium has already seen the competitive struggle affected by two crises – first, an economic one and now, one caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, which has had a great impact (not only) on the service sector. The article deals with the question of how Czech service enterprises reflect on the impact of the pandemic. The article’s aim is to find out how service enterprises perceive the impact of the Covid-19 crisis depending on their size and classification within the service sector and how they approach marketing investments during a pandemic crisis. The research is focused on service enterprises (n=90) in terms of their application of marketing processes in the conditions of the Czech Republic in the period 2020-2021. The results, based on descriptive and inferential statistics (ANOVA test in conjunction with Hochberg and Games-Howell tests, Pearson’s correlation coefficient and chi-squared test), show that smaller enterprises tend to be more affected by the effects of government measures in the context of the Covid-19 crisis than medium and large enterprises
Effects of Capital Control Actions on Cross-Border Trade
Get PDFThe evidence that capital controls adversely affect cross-border trade is debatable. This study proves that capital controls may support international trade by mitigating the negative effect of macroeconomic volatility. We use quarterly data from a sample of 25 emerging countries over the period 2011-2019. Using long- and short-standing capital controls dynamic panel models, and diversifying robust estimations techniques, our results show that capital controls alleviate the adverse effect of the exchange rate, interest rate differential, and inflation volatilities. The long-lasting capital controls «walls» are more effective than short-lasting capital control «gates». Besides, the effects of these controls are asymmetric regarding the financial development level and category of flows for which are applied, inflows or outflows. The study highlights the beneficial role of the macroprudential policy in supporting capital control actions. The results of this study have two main policy implications, the effectiveness of ‘walls’ controls and the importance of macroeconomic policy coordination
Determinants of Advancement in Information Communication Technologies and its Prospect under the role of Aggregate and Disaggregate Globalization
Get PDFGlobalization has been witnessed to bring numerous benefits to the advancement in information communication technologies. However, to analyze this relationship mostly aggregate globalization and country-specific studies have been conducted, without considering the importance of disaggregate globalization for advancement in information communication technologies. Therefore, this article aims to examine the impact of aggregate and disaggregate globalization on the advancement of information and communication technologies (ICT) in the case of 87 developed and developing countries for 2000-2019. Panel least square and pairwise Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality tests have been used for empirical analysis. We have divided our empirical analysis into six models, i.e. aggregate globalization model for whole sample countries, disaggregate globalization model for whole sample countries, aggregate globalization model for developed countries, disaggregate globalization model for developed countries, aggregate globalization model for developing countries, and disaggregate globalization model for developing countries. Our estimated outcomes of the aggregate globalization model for the whole sample countries and developing countries show that globalization has a positive and significant impact on the advancement of information and communication technology. Our outcomes show that economic globalization, social globalization, political globalization, and availability of physical capital have a positive and significant impact on the advancement of ICT in developing countries. In the case of developed countries, aggregate globalization, political globalization, and social globalization reduce the advancement of ICT, whereas the availability of physical capital and economic globalization are raising the advancement of ICT. The results of the causality test show that all the variables have a causal relationship with each other except some variables of developed countries in the disaggregate globalization model. Our outcomes recommend that developing countries should promote aggregate and disaggregate globalization to achieve the desired level of ICT
Revisiting Interest Rate – Exchange Rate Dynamics in South Africa: How Relevant is Pandemic Uncertainties?
Get PDFThis paper revisits the link between exchange rate and interest rate considering the role of uncertainty due to infectious diseases in the South African economy using monthly data from January 1985 to August 2020 within a nonparametric framework. First, we examine the relationship between the exchange-interest rates hypothesis and observe a significant positive link, especially during the pandemic. Second, we analyze the volatility spillover among exchange rates, interest rates and other macroeconomic fundamentals and find a strong connection with the interest rate being net receivers of shocks. Third, with evidence of nonlinearity in the variables, the nonparametric quantiles-based causality test shows that the spillover for each asset is driven by pandemic uncertainty around the median quantiles. Conclusively, this suggests that the role of global health news in influencing the South African financial cycle which consequently leads to capital flows and movements in the prices of assets across financial markets cannot be downplayed. Relevant policy implications can be drawn from these findings
Green Entrepreneurship and Digital Transformation of SMEs in Food Industry: Α Bibliometric Analysis
Get PDFThe emerging of green entrepreneurship and digital transformation improve businesses’ efficiency and meet consumers’ demand for environmentally sustainable products, reducing the environmental footprint and strengthening corporate responsibility to society. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has become a key event changing our lives while businesses have to change their daily operations and working from home has become the norm. So, it is possible to say that business activities and business models have undergone some form of digital transformation due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In Greece, the Food Industry can be characterized as one of the most dynamic and competitive economic sectors which is distinguished for its growth prospects. The aim of this study is twofold: (i) to investigate the impact of green entrepreneurship and digital transformation into the performance of Greek SMEs in the food sector and (ii) to highlight the new trends integrated in new business models in the sector. To meet the research purpose, a bibliometric and co-citation analysis was used based on the R package and graphene as a subject of research for bibliometric analysis. The knowledge gained in this article shows how the digital transformation changed the functioning of the companies in the food industry. The conclusions of this article are mainly for the enterprises that are considering their own digitalization, which contributes to the long-term sustainability of them