Scientific Annals of Economics and Business
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The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Cryptocurrency Market
Get PDFThe purpose of our paper is to analyze the main factors which influence fiscal balance’s evolution and thereby identify solutions for configuring a sustainable fiscal policy. We have selected as independent variables some of the main macroeconomic measures, respectively public debt, unemployment rate, economy openness degree, population, consumer goods’ price index, current account balance, direct foreign investments and economic growth rate. Our research method uses two econometric models applied on a sample of 22 countries, respectively 14 developed and 8 emergent. The first model is a multiple regression and studies the connection between the fiscal balance and selected independent variables, whereas the second one uses first order differences and introduces economic freedom as a dummy variable to catch the dynamic influences of selected measures upon fiscal result. The time interval considered was 1999-2013. The results generated using the two models revealed that public debt, current account balance and economic growth significantly influence the fiscal balance. As a consequence, the governments need to plan and implement a fiscal policy which resonates with economy priorities and the phase of the economic cycle, as well as ensure a proper management of the public debt, stimulate sustainable economic growth and employment
The Effect of Government Debt on Private Investment in Advanced Economies: Does Institutional Quality Matter?
Get PDFUnlike developing economies, advanced economies easily borrow debt to finance budget deficits. Government debt is one of the active measures of fiscal policy in these economies to run the economy and overcome its cyclicality. Most related studies note that government debt reduces private investment. Does it hold for advanced economies? Does institutional quality significantly affect the government debt – private investment relationship in these economies? For the answer, the study applies the PMG estimator (PMG) and the two-step difference GMM Arellano & Bond estimator (D-GMM) to investigate the impacts of government debt, institutional quality, and their interaction on private investment in 36 advanced economies from 2002 through 2019. The estimated results report that government debt crowds out private investment, while institutional quality enhances it. However, their interaction crowds out it. It seems counter-intuitive. Besides, economic growth and trade openness increase private investment while inflation decreases it. These results indicate the crucial implications for central governments in advanced countries in using and managing government debt
The Impact of Changes in Basel Capital Requirements on the Resilience of African Commercial Banks
Get PDFFocusing on a panel sample of 41 commercial banks over the period of 2000-2018, this study examined the effect of capital adequacy on the resilience of commercial banks in Africa under changing Basel levels (II, III, and the proposed Basel IV). The study created sample representative banks for the proposed Basel IV and used two measures, namely Z-score and CAMELS, to capture bank resilience. Using the panel logistic regression and fixed effect model, we found that capital adequacy, liquidity, earnings management efficiency, and macroeconomic conditions are key determinants of the resilience of commercial banks in Africa. Additionally, Basel compliant banks tend to be less prone to macroeconomic factors. Based on the positive and significant impact of all Basel capital ratios on Zscore, the results suggest that a high level of capital requirements increases African banks' resilience, and banks with higher capital can absorb risk exposures
Drivers of Sustainable Entrepreneurial Intentions in the Case of Serbian Students
Get PDFThe present research aims to establish the antecedents of sustainable entrepreneurial intention, having as reference theoretical framework the model of entrepreneurial event and the model of planned behavior, integrated and adapted to the context of sustainable entrepreneurship.
At the level of investigated population, consisting of 150 students from two Serbian universities, the empirical results emphasized that: personality traits and environmental values are significant and direct predictors of behavioral characteristics; entrepreneurial education and behavioral characteristics have an indirect influence on sustainable entrepreneurial intention being mediated by the desire and feasibility of sustainable entrepreneurship perceived by respondents.
As theoretical utility of the research, the current study is among the few that tried to integrate and expand two competing models in order to establish the antecedents of sustainable entrepreneurial intent. The research model adopted variables specific for the two models and integrated personality traits, environmental values and entrepreneurial education in order to establish direct and indirect determinants of sustainable entrepreneurial intention.
At practical level, the validation of the research model emphasizes the utility of stimulating youth’ sustainable entrepreneurial intention and applicability for future academic research endeavors. In order to stimulate sustainable entrepreneurial intentions, the validated research model indicates to governmental and university decision makers the need to implement programs promoting environmental values and integrating sustainability into the entrepreneurial education of youth
Do European, Middle-East and Asian Stock Markets Impact on Indian Stock Market? A Case Study Based on NIFTY Stock Index Forecasting
Get PDFThis paper estimates NIFTY index from Indian stock market by considering a cluster of MSCI European, Middle East and Asian stock market indices. In the forecasting process, we obtain group of independent variables to test its relative impact over dependent variable (NIFTY) considering a sample size of daily observations from January 2000 to December 2021 abstracted from Bloomberg. We run OLS regression, Quantile estimations with additional parameter of VIF and BKW. We found significant impact association with China (Asian index) and Saudi Arabia (Middle East index) during the forecasting process compared to rest of sample indices that exceed unexpectedly out of VIF limits. Further, we recorded strong association of independent variables despite of statistical significance (<1%) in OLS regression estimation
Financial Inclusion, Poverty, and Income Inequality: Evidence from High, Middle, and Low-income Countries
Get PDFThe past two decades have witnessed a high national importance to financial inclusion around the world. This paper intends to explore the impact of financial inclusion on poverty reduction and income inequality in the world, high, middle, and low-income countries. For this purpose, a new composite financial inclusion was constructed with three dimensions for finding various macroeconomic variables affecting the level of financial inclusion for 122 economies, including 32 from high-income, 38 from upper middle income, 38 from lower middle income, and 14 from low-income countries. Then the impact of financial inclusion, on poverty and income inequality, for the world and then for high, middle, and low-income countries was investigated. The estimates reveal that rule of law significantly affects financial inclusion for the world, high, middle, and low-income countries. But age dependency ratio influences the financial inclusion only for our full sample. However, population density significantly decreases financial inclusion just in the full sample and Upper middle-income countries. Education completion impacts significantly financial inclusion just in upper middle income. While literacy has a higher impact on financial inclusion in high-income countries. The findings also indicate that financial inclusion is significantly correlated with lower poverty for the full sample. The link between financial inclusion and income inequality has been found for high-income countries and lower-middle-income countries
Is Economic Freedom a Moderator of the Relationship Between Bank Capital and Profitability?
Get PDFThe study uses the GMM and panel OLS framework on the data of the US banks over the period from 2002 to 2019 to reveal the moderating role of economic freedom on the relationship between bank capital and profitability. The overall findings show that economic freedom and bank capital positively influence banks' profitability. The results reveal that economic freedom positively (negatively) moderates the relationship between risk-based (traditional) capital ratio. Furthermore, the results also find heterogeneity in the relationship across different market conditions (before and after crisis) and bank characteristics (well or undercapitalized, high and low liquid banks). The results remain robust for alternative methodology and proxies. The heterogeneity of findings has implications for policymakers in banking for the improvement of the financial system
Exchange Rate Synchronization for a Set of Currencies from Different Monetary Areas
Get PDFThe degree of co-movement between currencies remains an important subject for international trade and monetary integration across countries. However, the economic literature has given limited answers about the directional relationships among currencies, and whether they have a leader or a driver. Using the Hodrick-Prescott filter and the wavelet methodology, this paper analyzes exchange rate synchronization for a set of twelve currencies belonging to different monetary areas covering the period between January 1980 and July 2020. The empirical results reveal that: i) the U.S. dollar still plays an essential role as a foreign exchange anchor; ii) the euro shows an out-of-phase relationship with the vast majority of currencies, including with the other European currencies; iii) the British pound seems to have departed significantly from the European single currency; iv) the Brazilian real leads the Chinese yuan for most of the sample, and both currencies record great dissimilarities with the other currencies; v) in the absence of short-term foreign exchange market frictions, average bilateral distances between currencies are smaller, and vi) during the international financial crisis, exchange rates became more synchronized
Does Voracious Behavior favor Efficient Market Hypothesis? Role of Performance Measures
Get PDFGreed plays an important in the fluctuations of stock prices because investors want profits irrespective of the risk taken by them. This study aims to determine, whether, in times of rising trends in the market, greediness is good for the investor or not. Secondly, investors can get high profits by beating the market or not. The already formed deciles portfolios of listed companies on NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ based on size and book to market value are taken from the Kenneth R. French data library from Dec 1994 to Dec 2021. Sharpe, Treynor, and Sortino ratios are used as the measure of the performance of portfolios. Ordinal logistic regression is used to calculate the probability at different benchmark levels to determine, whether the investor gets the profit by beating the market or not. The results show that the investor who used the Sharpe ratio has an average 85% probability of getting a profit of more than 75% of the benchmark of S&P-500 in all periods. Thus, the investors’ greediness is good in the long run if the investor considers total risk and can beat the market. By using the Sortino and Treynor ratio, there is an average 50% probability of achieving the profit up to the benchmark which is S&P-500. This means that the investors are not able to beat the market thus, support the efficient market hypothesis by considering the downside and market risk
Interrelation of Bitcoin and Some Traditional Assets
Get PDFIn the research, the causal relationships between Bitcoin, gold and oil prices were examined. The data of the research covers the period from 2015 to July 2020 and consists of daily price values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test was used to see whether the stochastic process changes with time. Bitcoin and gold series do not contain a unit root since the oil series is stationary at the level while the difference is stationary. The reason why the series containing unit roots are not stationary is due to structural breaks or not, was investigated by Bai-Perron Unit Root Test with Multiple Structural Breaks. According to the test, it was determined that the Bitcoin series has one break and two regimes, while the gold series has two structural breaks and three different regimes. Whether the research series are cointegrated or not was investigated with the Gregory and Hansen test. The causality between the series was examined with the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, which is based on the VAR (Vector Autoregression) model and examines the causality in the series regardless of the unit root. A two-way causality relationship was determined between the eight lag-long Gold series and the Bitcoin series. In other cases, a causal relationship has not been established. As a result, we give an evidence that Bitcoin and gold prices series followed a parallel pattern while with oil not. Therefore, investors can add Bitcoin into their portfolios to make balance of the risk and return