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The impact of climate change on grapevines in Bosnia and Herzegovina
No full textClimate change is having a strong impact in the Western Balkans; it is decreasing water reserves and increasing the intensity and frequency of droughts and floods. Such changes have a predominantly negative impact on agricultural production. However, positive effects on grape growth are also expected. Here, the expected changes in the vineyard index in Bosnia and Herzegovina were analyzed using a multicriteria climate classification system. Three climate indices—the heliothermal index, the drought index, and the cool night index—were calculated based on datasets of mean daily temperature, maximum and minimum daily temperature, and daily rainfall accumulation for three locations in Bosnia and Herzegovina. These three locations represented different climatic zones. The trends in these climate indices are expected to significantly influence the viticulture sector. The most significant changes in these indices are predicted to occur in the second half of the twenty-first century. Rising temperatures are expected to extend the growing season, and increasing heat accumulation is expected to influence the grape yield and ripening potential in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The changing climatic conditions are likely to result in the introduction of new vine varieties to Bosnia and Herzegovina that are typical of regions with a drier and warmer climate. This study highlights that grape and wine production is on the rise in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and that climate change will provide the opportunity to develop this sector
Између жеља и реалности - истраживање намерa о повратку међу припадницима друге генерације миграната из Србије у Швајцарској
No full textПовратне миграције представљају недовољно истражену област у оквиру студија о мобилности становништва. Иако намера о повратку не представља и гаранцију за његову реализацију, мигранти који исказују намеру да се врате имају веће шансе да то и остваре у односу на оне који о томе и не размишљају. Посматрано са аспекта државе порекла, повратне миграције могу имати велики значај за укупни развој државе, нарочито уколико је реч о повратку младих људи који су репродуктивно и радно способни. У раду су представљени резултати истраживања спроведеног међу припадницима друге генерације миграната из Србије у кантону Луцерн (Швајцарска) с циљем утврђивања њихових намера о повратку. За потребе рада спроведена је on-line анкета затвореног типа, док је испити вање утемељено интервјуима. Резултати су указали на сложеност и нераскидивост везе миграната са Републиком Србијом на различитим нивои ма. Међутим, показало се да на намеру о повратку утичу бројни фактори који су прева ходно повезани са задовољством живота у држави пријема. У том контексту не изненађује податак да највећи број испитаника не планира да се врати у Србију
Gis application in analysis of natural conditions for the genesis of torrents in territory of LOEQ ''Vlasina"
Get PDFIn this paper predisposition of the terrain for the emergence of torrents by application of Geographic Informational Systems (GIS) was made. Due to great ecological importance of this area, it is necessary to continuously monitor the state of the environment. High rainfall over a short period of time is the main cause of torrential floods, and because of the high elevation of Vlasina, the average annual rainfall exceeds 800 mm. The method used to determine the predisposition of a landscape of exceptional qualities (LOEQ) "Vlasina" on occurrence of torrential flood is the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI). To identify the possibility of torrential floods occurence, natural conditions were analyzed: slope of the terrain, types of geological substrate, vegetation density and the way the land use. Using the GIS tool, a map of the susceptibility of terrain to the occurrence of torrents in the territory of LOEQ "Vlasina" was obtained, and the classification of rivers was made based on the probability of occurrence of torrential floods on them
Assessment of Outdoor Thermal Comfort in Serbia’s Urban Environments during Different Seasons
Get PDFThe urban microclimate is gradually changing due to climate change, extreme weather
conditions, urbanization, and the heat island effect. In such an altered environment, outdoor thermal comfort can have a strong impact on public health and quality of life in urban areas. In this study, three main urban areas in Serbia were selected: Belgrade (Central Serbia), Novi Sad (Northern Serbia), and Niš (Southern Serbia). The focus was on the temporal assessment of OTC, using the UTCI over a period of 20 years (1999–2018) during different seasons. The main aim is the general estimation of the OTC of Belgrade, Novi Sad, and Niš, in order to gain better insight into the bioclimatic condition, current trends and anomalies that have occurred. The analysis was conducted based on an hourly (7 h, 14 h, and 21 h CET) and “day by day” meteorological data set. Findings show the presence of a growing trend in seasonal UTCI anomalies, especially during summer and spring. In addition, there is a notable increase in the number of days above the defined UTCI thresholds for each season. Average annual UTCIs values also show a positive, rising trend, ranging from 0.50 ◦C to 1.33 ◦C. The most significant deviations from the average UTCI values, both seasonal and annual, were recorded
in 2000, 2007, 2012, 2015, 2017, and 2018
Locating and categorizing causes of discomfort during transport of patients to medical facilities
Get PDFThis article presents geographic information system usage in transportation management for comfort calculations, analysing vehicle vibration data measured during patient transportation. The main goal of this article is to develop a methodology for automatic discomfort cause recognition (DCR) that may be tested under real life conditions. We analysed differences between uncomfortable locations detected by passengers during patient transportation (according to their subjective opinions) and uncomfortable locations detected by the measurement system. The measuring system is based on the three-axis accelerometer which is used to determine road comfort values for specific locations gathered by a GPS module. The results obtained were compared with data collected by passengers. During driving, when they experienced discomfort, passengers marked locations in near real time using the GIS. The data thus obtained were analysed with the data obtained by DCR. For the first time, the application of GIS provides analytical tools to create spatial data and define spatial data relations that determine comfort. Testing under real conditions, involving three separate cases, shows a high degree of correlation between the results. The proposed system allows dynamic comfort threshold criteria management and provides a visual representation of summarized tabular data
Savremeni pristup planiranja turističke regije
Get PDFSavremenim domaćim i međunarodnim turističkim kretanjima zahvaćeni su prostrani planinski, primorski, ostrvski, urbani i ruralni prostori naše planete. Turizam sa nizom pozitivnih, ali i izvesnim negativnim posledicama u odnosu na živu i nežvu prirodu, tj. geografsku sredinu i ljudskom rukom i duhom stvarenim objektima, od značaja je za one koji putiju (turistička inicijativa) i one koji turiste prihvataju (turistička receptiva), kao i za brojne posrednike između ova dva pola turizma. Tamo gde se razvija organizovano, planski i u saglasnosti sa postojećim prirodnim i antropogenim vrednostima i odgovarajućim manifestacijama, izvor je značajnih matarijalnih prihoda, te se uvažava kao jedna od vodećih privrednih delatnosti, često višestruko značajna od klasičnih privrednih aktivnosti. Za pravilan razvoj turizma, koji mora biti na dobrobit svih učesnika u njegovoj realizaciji, tokom dužeg vremena, potrebno je svrsishodno, naučno osnovano, u praksi provereno planiranje, saglasno realnim kapacitetima prostora, koji je, bez obzira na sve veću moć čoveka i društva, ipak ograničen, a brojni njegovi elementi potrošni ili slabo obnovljivi. Prostorni planeri su pri ovome, prvi pozvani i kompetentni da na pravi način i na duži rok, osmišljavaju metode, akcije, naučne i aplikativne osnove planiranja turizma u regijama različitih vrsta (planinske, primorske, banjske, gradske, spomeničke, savremene, potencijalne). Iz prirode ka spomenicima, istorijski značajnim objektima i kompleksima, put do turizma po meri čoveka, koji poistovećujemo sa održivim turizmom, davaće najbolje ekonomske i društvene koristi samo ako se razvija planski u određenom prostoru, u našem slučaju u postojećoj ili potencijalnoj turističkoj regiji.Urednici: Dejan Filipović, Velimir Šećerov, Dejan S. Đorđevi
Процена подложности терена за настанак бујичних поплава и клизишта: студија случаја - слив реке Млаве (Србија)
No full textTorrential floods and landslides are frequent natural disasters in Serbia, but also in the Mlava River Basin. Due to the large number of settlements, the main goal of this research is to determine the locations that are most susceptible to torrential floods and landslides in the Mlava River Basin. Using geographic information systems (GIS), the first step is the analysis the susceptibility of the terrain to torrential floods using the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI) method. According to the obtained data, it was determined that 31.53% of the Mlava River Basin is susceptible, and 10.46% is very susceptible to torrential floods. The second step is the analysis of the susceptibility of the terrain to landslides, for which the statistical Probability method (PM) and the Landslide Susceptibility Index (LSI) were used. According to the results of the LSI index and PM method, 8.09% and 14.04% of the basin area is in the category of high and very high susceptibility to landslides. This paper represents a significant step towards a better understanding of unfavorable natural conditions in the Mlava River Basin, and the obtained results are applicable to numerous human activities in the research area (environmental protection, sustainable management of agricultural plots, protection of water and forest resources and ecosystems, etc.).Бујичне поплаве и клизишта представљају честе природне непогоде у Србији, али и у сливу реке Млаве. Због великог броја насеља, основни циљ овог истраживања је утврђивање локација које су најподложније настанку бујичних поплава и клизишта у сливу Млаве. Употребом географских информационих система (ГИС), први корак представља анализа подложности терена за настанак бујичних поплава применом методе Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI). Према добијеним подацима, утврђено је да је 31,53% слива Млаве подложно, а 10,46% веома подложно бујичним поплавама. Други корак представља анализа подложности терена за настанак клизишта, за шта су коришћени статистички Probability метод (PM) и Landslide Susceptibility Index (LSI). Према резултатима LSI индекса и PM методе, 8,09% и 14,04% површине слива налази се у категорији високе и врло високе подложности клизиштима. Овај рад представља значајан корак ка бољем разумевању неповољних природних услова у сливу реке Млаве, а добијени резултати су апликативни за бројне људске активности у истражном простору (заштита животне средине, одрживо управљање пољопривредним парцелама, заштита водних и шумских ресурса и екосистема, и др.)
Multihazard susceptibility assessment: A case study – Municipality of Štrpce (Southern Serbia)
Get PDFThe municipality of Štrpce (Southern Serbia) is
an area located within Šar Mountain National Park, which
is of great ecological importance. Due to the vicinity of
settlements, it is necessary to analyze the terrain's susceptibility
to natural hazards. The main goal of this research
was to determine locations that are highly vulnerable at
times of natural hazards (such as earthquakes, erosion,
torrential flooding, snow avalanches, and forest fires).
The first step in this research was to analyze seismic
hazards for a 475 years return period (VII–VIII MCS for
the observed area), which was possible by means of
Geographic Information Systems. The second step was to
determine the intensity of erosion and total sediment production
using the Erosion Potential Model. The third step
was related to the analysis of the potential of torrential
floods using the Flash Flood Potential Index. The Avalanches
Potential Index method was used as the fourth step. The fifth
step included the analysis of a terrain susceptibility to the
occurrence of forest fires. Following the five criteria analysis,
weight coefficients were assigned to each of the analyzed parameters
by using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), which
provided results of the total susceptibility to natural hazards of
the territory of Štrpce. Results indicated that over 45% of the
municipality is highly or very highly susceptible to various
natural hazards. This article represents a significant step
toward a better understanding of natural hazards and it
provides a unique knowledge basis for establishing the
management and mitigation guidelines and measures,
not only within the researched area but at regional and
national levels as well
Spatio-temporal variability of air temperatures in Central Serbia from 1949 to 2018
No full textThe paper presents trends for three categories of variables: average annual, average maximum and average minimum air temperatures. Data was provided by the meteorological yearbooks of the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia. The main goal of this paper is to detect possible temperature trends in Central Serbia. The trend equation, trend magnitude, and Mann-Kendall non-parametric test were used in the analysis of climate parameters. The used statistical methods were supplemented by GIS numerical analysis, which aimed to analyze the spatial distribution of isotherms from 1949 to 2018. The obtained results indicate that out of the 72 analyzed time series, an increase in air temperature is dominant in 61 time series, while 11 time series show no changes. The highest increase was recorded in the average maximum time series (4.2 °C), followed by an increase of 3.5°C in average maximum air temperatures. The highest increase in the average annual time-series was 3.0 °C. The lowest increases in air temperature were recorded in the average minimum time series (0.1 and 0.2 °C). In two average minimum time series a decrease in average air temperatures was identified (-0.6 and -0.4 °C. The application of GIS tools indicates the existence of interregional differences in the arrangement of isotherms, leaded by the orography of the terrain. In the spatial distribution of the analyzed variables, "poles of heat" and "poles of cold" stand out, and the influence of the urban heat island is evident (especially in the case of the urban agglomeration of Belgrade). The manifested spatial patterns of air temperature need to be further examined and the correlation with possible causes need to be determined. For these reasons, the paper provides a solid basis for studying the climate of this area in the future, as it provides insight into climate dynamics over the past decades
Concept of polycentricity—the differences between development policies and spatial reality
Get PDFContemporary scientific literature and strategic documents suggest the concept of polycentricity as a key factor and the aim of regional development policies. One of the aims of this study is to analyze spatial relations between the nodal regions and to determine (calculate) the level of polycentricity in the region of Vojvodina (Northern Serbia). By quantifying spatial relations in the region (using selected methods), we pointed out the relevance of regional development policies, i.e., the extent to which the proposed measures for reducing regional inequalities are in line with the direction of contemporary spatial relations in the region of Vojvodina. We have used four different methodological tools: rank-size rule, urban primacy index, index of functional centrality, and commuting patterns (levels of functional dependence). The obtained results identified the existence of morphological polycentricity, but also the growing domination of the cities of Novi Sad and Belgrade in regulating and managing spatial and functional relations in the region of Vojvodina. These results are not completely in line with the development directions declared in the strategic documents. Our approach focuses on assessing the influence of the main nodal (sub)centers in managing further spatial and functional relations in the region of Vojvodina