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Agriculture Land Use Change and Demographic Change in Response to Decline Suspended Sediment in Juzna Morava River Basin (Serbia)
Get PDFThis study expounds the dynamic relationships among agricultural land-use change, rural population migration, and sediment transport. The variability of suspended sediment load was detected by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests. From 1961 to 2007, the annual trend in suspended sediment concentration and sediment load demonstrated significant reduction (alpha = 0.001), with decreasing rates of 0.0144 g/L/y and 84.7 t/y, respectively. An abrupt change-point was detected in 1984 for the sediment load (p = 0.0001). The double-mass curve method and regression analysis of sediment load versus precipitation were used to quantify the effects of climate change and human activities on sediment load variations. The changes in sediment load were predominantly impacted by human activities (89%), while precipitation explained 11% of the reduction in suspended sediment. An important land-use change recorded in the Juzna Morava river basin comprised the abandonment of agricultural lands due to depopulation processes, as well as economic and social changes, which was followed by significant impacts on soil erosion and sediment transport. Land abandonment was most pronounced in marginal mountain or semi-mountainous areas, where agriculture was until recent decades traditional or semi-traditional. The results of the correlation matrix were significant at the p lt 0.05 level, demonstrating that the decrease of rural population, agricultural land, and arable land were directly related to the decline of suspended sediment. High correlation coefficients were found between anthropogenic indicators and sediment parameters, ranging from 0.94 to 0.97
Landscape suitability assessment and mapping of potential land use conflicts in the function of sustainable landscape management: a case study of Branicevo district, Serbia
No full textIn this study, the landscape suitability assessment was used to quantify and map the relationships between landscape functions (agriculture production, recreational tourism and mineral resources exploitation). Obtained results can be treated in two ways. The greatest potentials for conflict are observed in the multifunctional landscapes of Branicevo District, where the mapped landscape functions carry high values. In the same way, the values obtained by determining the degree of suitability reflect development opportunities, and indicate terrains most suitable for the development of agriculture production and recreational tourism. The methodological approach is based on the combined application of the Relative Relief Evaluation Method and V-Wert method. GIS data processing produced synthesis maps, which presented spatial units, grouped into categories with values conditioned by the heterogeneous landscape structure. Spatial units indicating high and conditionally high level of potential conflict between agriculture production and recreational tourism occupy an area of 16.01%, while spatial units where high and conditionally high level of potential conflict between all three landscape functions occupy 4.91% of the district. The most suitable terrains for agriculture production development occupy 23.17% of the area, while the spatial units indicating terrains most valuable for recreational tourism development occupy 7.43% of the study area
Mapping of Very Shallow Geothermal Potentials in Rural Areas: Case Study of Bavaria (Germany)
No full textShallow geothermal energy is a renewable source for heating and cooling systems and buildings, by which a significant part of the arising energy demand could be covered if it is in widespread use. Especially in rural areas (very) shallow geothermal systems are well applicable due to the availability of spacious unsealed areas.
The aim of the study was to generate maps describing geothermal potentials for very shallow horizontal applications in the rural areas of Bavaria (Germany). These maps offer planning assistance to engineers and municipalities, but also to private investors, and consequently should increase use of shallow geothermal energy. The relevant soil parameters for calculation of the geothermal potential were implemented as areal data in a geographical information system (GIS). Soil map of Bavaria (scale 1:5000), which includes crucial parameters such as soil texture, provided the base for mapping. Additionally, climate data, based on degree-day numbers for characteristic regions, as implemented. By combining these inputs an algorithm for calculation of very shallow geothermal potentials (vSGP) was developed.
Results are presented in two categories – thermal conductivity on the one hand (Figure 1), and heat extraction on the other (Figure 2). Heat conductivity is the general parameter which describes local geothermal potentials, dependent on soil texture, bulk density and water content, while heat extraction is given as a system-specific characteristic. This research focused on four different shallow geothermal systems – horizonal ground heat collectors, capillary tube mats, geothermal baskets, and trench collectors. Heat conductivity is a factor relevant for planners of heating and cooling systems but cannot directly present the efficiency of a possible geothermal system. However, heat extraction (in W/m²) expresses efficiency more transparently, as it actually defines the theoretical performance of different systems.
The vSGP maps were validated by obtained soil data from selected case study municipalities. Therefore, information from geotechnical surveys, as well as from sampled and analyzed soils were used. Seven rural municipalities from different Bavarian regions (see maps) were involved in the study, hence reaching appropriate geographic distribution and achieving results for different soil configurations.
In general, vSGPs for utilization of horizontal geothermal systems in Bavarian rural areas are favorable. Villages on mountain slopes may have unfavorable conditions due to the steep relief that interfere with the installation of the systems, but these areas can be identified and disqualified by application of the digital elevation model. Afterall, the compilation process is easy to transfer to other regions all over the world, just by using respective soil maps and climatic data
Демографско и економско опадање градова у Србији – типолошка класификација и регионална диференцијација
Get PDFUrban shrinkage is a process that many European countries have been facing in recent decades. It had started in highly developed regions at the time of deindustrialisation, but since the 1990s, this process has also affected Central, Eastern and South-eastern Europe, with different patterns and dynamics of urban shrinkage. The political and economic crisis in Serbia during the 1990s, as well as the transition from a centrally governed and urban-based industrialisation to a neoliberal market economy, has brought significant changes in the development of cities, which faced declining demographic and economic vitality. This paper is focused on the analysis of the intensity and dynamics of demographic and economic aspects of urban shrinkage in Serbia and on classification of cities according to the different phases of urban shrinkage. Typological classification was performed using the K-means clustering algorithm. The cluster analysis is based on the use of relevant demographic and socio-economic indicators, for the period from 2002 to 2011. After identifying cities that recorded an increase in total population and relatively stable economic development, three types of shrinking cities were determined according to the intensity of demographic and economic shrinkage - cities with low, medium and high shrinkage intensity. The analysis of the main patterns and factors that influenced the different levels of urban shrinkage enabled a better understanding of this phenomenon in Serbia. The results indicate the heterogeneity of urban space due to different levels of demographic and economic shrinkage, thus it can serve as a starting point for future research of uneven urban development in Serbia.Опадање градова (енг. urban shrinkage) је процес са којим се последњих
деценија суочавају многе земље у Европи и свету. Започет у високоразвијеним
регионима у време деиндустријализације, овај процес је од 1990-их година
интензивиран у постсоцијалистичким земљама Европе, у којима је испољио
различите просторне обрасце и динамику. Политичка и економска криза у Србији
током 1990-их година, као и прелазак са централизоване економије базиране на
индустријализацији на неолибералну тржишну економију, донели су значајне
промене у развоју градова, а пре свега опадање демографске и економске виталности.
Тежиште рада представља утврђивање степена и динамике демографског и
економског опадања градова у Србије и детерминисање различитих типова градова
сходно интензитету урбаног опадања. Типолошка класификација је извршена
применом "K-means" методе кластер анализе. Методолошки поступак је заснован на
коришћењу релевантних демографских и социоекономских индикатора, за период од
2002. до 2011. године. Након идентификовања градова који су забележили пораст
укупног становништва и релативно стабилан економски развој, детерминисано је три
типа градова сходно динамици и интензитету демографског и економског опадања -
градови са ниским, умереним и високим интензитетом опадања. Анализом
регионалних разлика и фактора који су условили различиту динамику и степен
опадања омогућено је јасније сагледавање овог феномена на простору Србије.
Резултати истраживања указују на хетерогеност урбаног простора сходно различитом
степену демографског и економског опадања градова, те могу послужити као полазна
основа за будућа истраживања неравномерног урбаног развоја Србије
Preliminarna analiza efekata COVID-19 krize na agregat umiranja u Srbiji u 2020. godini
Get PDFProglašenje pandemije COVID-19 od strane SZO početkom 2020. go-dine izazvalo je lavinu događaja koji su bez presedana u istoriji. Osimefekata na međunarodnu i nacionalnu ekonomiju i saobraćaj, sasvim jeočekivano da efekti budu najočigledniji na vitalne demografske stope. Sajedne strane, kako raspolažemo podacima za 2020. godinu (agregatnim),to je potpuno jasno da evidentno smanjenje broja živorođenja u Srbiji uodnosu na 2019. godinu nema nikakve veze sa krizom izazvane virusomkorona. Imajući u vidu da je epidemija u Srbiji proglašena tokom marta,kada je uvedeno vanredno stanje potpunim zatvaranjem (lockdown), i dasu sva živorođenja u 2020. godini rezultat začeća koja su ostvarena preproglašenja epidemije, sasvim je jasno da ne postoji osnov da se eviden-tirani pad nivoa rađanja dovodi u vezu sa krizom izazvane pandemijomCOVID-19. Sa druge strane, kao ukupan broj umrlih od virusa korona kaouzroka smrti tokom 2020. godine evidentirano je 3211 slučajeva, ali jeapsolutna razlika broja umrlih tokom 2020. u odnosu na 2019. godinuiznosila 13496 lica. Zadatak ovog referata biće da pruži odgovore o po-tencijalno minimalnoj i potencijalno maksimalnoj smrtnosti u Srbiji tokom2020. godine u odsustvu krize COVID-19, odnosno u redovnim okolnosti-ma. Podatak o graničnim vrednostima očekivanog agregata mortaliteta,ali i podatak o očekivanoj smrtnosti od COVID-a imajući u vidu nalazedosadašnjih relevantnih studija, potencijalno mogu dati dva odgovora.Prvi je da je moguće dati grubu ocenu toga da li je registrovani broj umr-lih od COVID-a potcenjen ili precenjen i drugi je da se na osnovu te oce-ne i podatka o mogućim graničnim vrednostima agregata umiranja uredovnim okolnostima, prikaže interval u okviru koga se kreće direktnademografska cena krize COVID-19 u Srbiji. Drugim rečima, pokušaćemoda damo odgovor da li se radi o prekomernom odgovoru na pandemijuili se, možda, radi o preblagoj reakciji države u uslovima visokog epidemi-ološkog rizika. Višak smrtnosti od 14785 lica (srednja vrednost) jednim je delomsigurno posledica prekomernog odgovora na pandemiju COVID-19 istavljanja čitavog zdravstvenog sistema u službu borbe protiv COVID-ačime je otežan pa i onemogućen pristup obolelima od drugih bolestii stanja. Sa druge strane, veliki udeo viška smrti može se indirektnopripisati COVID-u. Ove smrti nije direktno izazvao virus korona ali jemoguće da ih je posredno uzrokovao, komplikujući ishod primarnoghroničnog (ili akutnog) stanja ili bolesti, koje usled verovatnog neo-buhvata testiranjem (ili lažno negativnog rezultata testiranja) nisupodvedene pod statistiku umiranja od COVID-a. Iako je broj umrlih odCOVID-a relativno mali i predstavlja nizak udeo u okviru viška morta-liteta, Srbija se nalazi u samom svetskom vrhu prema broju prekobroj-nih smrti na 100 hiljada stanovnika tokom 2020. godine. Naime, ovajpokazatelj iznosi čak 267,5 prekobrojnih smrti na svakih 100 hiljadastanovnika svrstavajući Srbiju, njen zdravstveni sistem i ukupan odgo-vor države među najveće demografske gubitnike krize COVID-19, da-leko iza, često pominjanih, Italije sa 157, Španije sa 160, Belgije sa 177i SAD sa 138 prekobrojnih smrti na 100 hiljada stanovnika
Comparative analysis of the outdoor thermal comfort in urban environments - case study of Bijeljina and Loznica
Get PDFThis paper presents the comparative analysis of the Outdoor Thermal Comfort (OTC) of two urban environments - Bijeljina (Republic of Srpska) and Loznica (Serbia). Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), which represents the heat stress of the human organism caused by meteorological conditions, was used as a measure of thermal comfort in the study. The main goal of the research was to monitor changes in the index values, as well as the frequency of various categories of thermal stress during the hottest summer months (June, July, August), over a ten-year period (2009-2018). For the purpose of determining the UTCI index, mean daily values of meteorological data were used, which were measured at the weather stations Bijeljina (44° 75’ N, 19° 20’ E, 97m) and Loznica (44° 32’ N, 19° 14’ E, 121m). The obtained results show a gradual change in the bioclimatic conditions of these areas, which are generally less favorable during July and August, somewhat more in Bijeljina, then in Loznica
Značaj geoloških resursa i uticaj njihove eksploatacije na životnu sredinu
Get PDFEksploatacija geoloških resursa je oduvek imala značajnu ulogu u razvoju društva.
Širom sveta, pa i na teritoriji Srbije, rudarstvo ima dugu tradiciju i predstavlja važnu privrednu delatnost. Savremenom društvu su neophodni resursi mineralnih sirovina, a samim tim i
rudarska industrija, jer proizvodi dobijeni ovom delatnošću poboljšavaju kvalitet života i omogućavaju društveni rast. Podizanjem ekološke svesti i usvajanjem novih zakonskih regulativa,
gotovo sve rudarske kompanije usvajaju rigoroznu politiku i procedure zbog potrebe održivosti.
U razvijenim zemljama rudarska aktivnost je sada usko regulisana, a uticaji na životnu sredinu
se sve više kontrolišu. Obavezan deo plana zatvaranja rudnika predstavlja svakako rekultivacija
zemljišta, odnosno vraćanje zemljišta na kom se odvijala eksploatacija mineralnih sirovina u
prirodno ili ekonomski upotrebljivo stanje sa ciljem ublažavanja posledica rudarske aktivnosti
na životnu sredinu. Sastavni je deo zakonskih regulativa i procene uticaja na životnu sredinu u
mnogim zemljama.Urednici: Dejan Filipović, Velimir Šećerov, Dejan S. Đorđevi
Detailed Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Variability of Rainfall Erosivity and Erosivity Density in the Central and Southern Pannonian Basin
Get PDFEstimation of rainfall erosivity (RE) and erosivity density (ED) is essential for understanding the complex relationships between hydrological and soil erosion processes. The main objective of this study is to assess the spatial–temporal trends and variability of the RE and ED in the central and southern Pannonian Basin by using station observations and gridded datasets. To assess RE and ED, precipitation data for 14 meteorological stations, 225 grid points. and an erosion model consisting of daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall for the period of 1961–2014 were used. Annual RE and ED based on station data match spatially variable patterns of precipitation, with higher values in the southwest (2100 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1) and southeast (1650 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1) of the study area, but minimal values in the northern part (700 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1). On the other hand, gridded datasets display more detailed RE and ED spatial–temporal variability, with the values ranging from 250 to 2800 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1. The identified trends are showing increasing values of RE (ranging between 0.20 and 21.17 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1) and ED (ranging between 0.01 and 0.03 MJ·ha−1·h−1) at the annual level. This tendency is also observed for autumn RE (from 5.55 to 0.37 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1) and ED (from 0.05 to 0.01 MJ·ha−1·h−1), as for spring RE (from 1.00 to 0.01 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1) and ED (from 0.04 to 0.01 MJ·ha−1·h−1), due to the influence of the large-scale processes of climate variability, with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) being the most prominent. These increases may cause a transition to a higher erosive class in the future, thus raising concerns about this type of hydro-meteorological hazard in this part of the Pannonian Basin. The present analysis identifies seasons and places of greatest erosion risk, which is the starting point for implementing suitable mitigation measures at local to regional scales
Quantitative Geodiversity Assessment of the Fruška Gora Mt. (North Serbia) by Using the Geodiversity Index
Get PDFThe Fruška Gora Mt., as a dominant orographic complex in the Pannonian plain, was selected for a pioneer geodiversity quantification study area due to its unique geology and soil properties. The methodology is based on the geodiversity quantification assessment approach of Serrano and Ruiz-Flaño (Geogr Helv 62:140–147, 2007). It employed a 500 × 500 m grid approach on several maps (lithological, geomorphological, topographical, and pedological) at scales of 1:50.000 to 1:300.000, together with a 30-m resolution digital elevation model for deriving sub-indices and a topographic roughness. The geodiversity index values (Gd) indicate that the highest geodiversity sites are found on the north, north-east and south-western part of the investigated mountain: in steep-sided valleys, along the horst and loess cliffs facing the Danube River. The obtained results are compared with the already recognized in situ geosite location network. This approach can be applied in the given area for geoheritage protection, conservation, and promotion at different levels (from local to national level). Following the results of this study, the criteria for the definition of conservation areas with abiotic significance should be considered, as there is no legal protection of any kind for the areas with the highest geodiversity index values outside the National Park area. Also, it is a potentially effective tool for supporting decision-making processes regarding the management and conservation of natural areas or regions at different scales with further possible applications in Serbia and elsewhere in Europe
Sustainability of Underground Heritage; The Example of the Military Galleries of the Petrovaradin Fortress in Novi Sad, Serbia
Get PDFThis paper focuses on the underground military galleries and countermine system of the Petrovaradin Fortress near Novi Sad (Serbia). The Petrovaradin Fortress was presented within the working group Underground Built Heritage Reuse and Valorisation Strategies on the COST action Underground4value as a good example of tourist valorised underground cultural heritage in Serbia. The goal of the paper is to consider as widely as possible the options that could contribute to the sustainability of these galleries. Numerous field observations, complex research of the literature as well as other available sources, and interviews with visitors to the fortress were necessary for this goal to be achieved. The paper has special historical and practical significance. On the one hand, it represents a record in time concerning the condition of the Petrovaradin Fortress. The practical significance is reflected in the scientific contribution based on the critical analysis of the results obtained from authorities on the Fortress and visitors, as well as the ideas that the authors conceived or adapted from similar sites in the world, assessing that these ideas can be applied to the Petrovaradin Fortress. The results of the paper explain the aspects of ecological, economic, and social sustainability of the Petrovaradin Fortress, and indicate the need for it to be supported by various institution