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Демографске пројекције депопулационих зона у Србији: пример општине Неготин
Get PDFDemographic projections represent a multi-purpose instrument in predicting the population development for the purpose of spatial planning and organizing as well as local economic development. In Serbia, demographic projections are very rarely produced on territorial levels lower than regional, therefore, the projections that are depicted in this work will be focused on the municipality of Negotin with the goal of observing an exceptionally depopulated area located in Eastern Serbia. The projections have been created with a time horizon of the year 2040 by using the cohort-component method which is wellestablished in literature as a prevailing method of producing population projections. Population projections for the municipality of Negotin have been constructed in three variants all relying on the initial hypotheses of fertility, mortality, and migrations. This is also the first time that such projections have been made separately for a rural and urban area of the municipality of Negotin. Results have shown that by the year 2040, the population will range between 17 and 18 thousand citizens, with the depopulation rate in rural areas being twice as high as that of urban ones. With the current demographic state in mind, it is evident that only direct interventions in the domain of migrational policies could slow down the pace of depopulation. This is due to the fact that the current fertility potential is undoubtedly insufficient to slow down depopulation even in the occurrence of a complete response to pronatalist policies.Демографске пројекције представљају вишеструко користан инструмент предикције развоја становништва у сврху планирања и организације простора и локалног економског развоја. У Србији су пројекције становништва врло ретке за територијални ниво нижи од регионалног, па су стога у овом раду пројекције изражене за општину Неготин, са циљем да се сагледају демографске развојне перспективе једне изразито депопулационе зоне у Источној Србији. Пројекције су израђене за временски хоризонт до 2040. године, а употребљен је кохортно компонентни метод који је као доминантан приступ за израду популационих пројекција добро утемељен у литератури. Пројекције становништва за општину Неготин израђене су у три варијанте у зависности од улазних хипотеза о фертилитету, морталитету и миграцијама и први пут да су изражене понаособ за сеоска и градско насеље. Резултати су показали да ће до 2040. године на простору општине живети између 17 и 18 хиљада становника, са двоструко вишим интензитетом депопулације у сеоском подручју. Но основу тренутног стања становништва евидентно је да би једино директне интервенције у домену миграционе политике могле успорити депопулацију, јер је фертилни потенцијал у овом тренутку недовољан да успори депопулацију чак и у случају потпуног одзива на мере пронаталитетне политике
D4.1 - Report on Western Balkans Just Green Transition Conceptualisation
Get PDFThe Western Balkans region is significantly impacted by climate change and pollution. Over the past decades, warming has accelerated, and throughout the 21st century, it is projected to be higher than the world average (Alfthan, B et.al, 2015). The observed changes in precipitation over the last few decades are less clear, but almost all climate models agree that the region's countries will experience a significant decrease in precipitation by the twenty-first century, accompanied by an increase in drought conditions and, thus, water availability.
In the absence of adequate adaptation measures, key risks for the region arising from these hazards are manifested to a vast extent and include economic and livelihood losses, increased mortality and morbidity, decreased public safety, impaired ecosystem functioning and the loss of species, and decreased energy security due to water scarcity. Many of these impacts are not only future issues but also present-day concerns.
While the Just Green Transition concept and approaches are embraced at a global level, the process towards this transition in the WBs is progressing at a very slow pace and little is done in regard to societal preparedness for JGT. The “transition” itself signals epochal change, and at the same time unfolds uncertain futures for the affected economies. In this context, the WB countries have long been in the loop of the post-socialism transition, what Smith et al. (2005) call a ‘purposive transition’, characterised by a deliberate goal pursued as of the outset of transformation, with an explicit set of societal expectations and drawing heavily on external resources, aid and political orientation.
Confronting this, the green transition is equally purposive (Geels, 2011) for the Western Balkans, considering its embeddedness within the EU green agenda, the EU integration process, and the structural and technical weaknesses in the region which inhibit it from producing bottom-up niches of change. Petrov (2014) characterises the post-socialist purposive transition as ‘teleological’ for the CEE, with the regime change appearing as “purposeful, preordained, and therefore predictable, virtually unstoppable, and impelled by a future goal”, which serves as the “defined end of the transition process” (p.30).
The contextual territorial factors, should be accounted for in the respective local and regional strategies. Carothers (2002, p.8) would call the latter “the underlying conditions … the economic level, political history, institutional legacies, ethnic make-up, sociocultural traditions, or other ‘structural’ features”, all of which are equally relevant and important in defining how this new transition would evolve within the Western Balkans region. These underlying factors correspond with the sociotechnical landscape in which regimes are set and change (transition), and count for the spatial structure of cities, economic growth and social factors, normative values and environmental problems, as well as potential disasters and political dynamics. In the Western Balkans, the underlying conditions, coupled with the fatigue from a stagnating process of EU integration, conflicting narratives, dominant-power politics, corrupted institutions, and huge territorial disparities, have produced an agony of ‘never-ending transition’, which suggests that resistance to change may be notably present for the green transitions as well.
On a policy level, to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 the EU adopted a new growth strategy, called The European Green Deal, (COM (2019) 640 final), which among others requires amending and creating transformative regulations, directives and decisions focused on eight main elements. The EGD has laid forward a Green Agenda for the Western Balkans (GAWB), not only in terms of fulfilling the acquis conditions but also as an emergent need for societies to interact and cooperate in view of climate changes. Yet, Western Balkan countries still fall behind the EU in fighting, mitigating and adapting to climate change, lacking at the same time a holistic approach for transforming all relevant policies (national and regional) into climate-sensitive. A lack of general knowledge and awareness persists in the region, there are no studies on the impact of the limited JGT practices so far as well; and to date, no ex-ante assessment on the effects of future interventions is undertaken.
On a methodological note, this document makes its first attempt in unravelling key theoretical concepts related to Just Green Transition, while provides at a same time a summary of Green Transition efforts in the WB to date, in the frame of the EU Green Deal and defines common key elements for the just and inclusive Green Transition of the WB. Additionally, it builds on two methodological processes undertaken in the frame of GreenFORCE: i) the mapping of policies and current initiatives in the WBs and ii) The co-design processes bringing together the discussion of various stakeholders on JGT in the region.
To deepen the discussion and further the efforts towards the conceptualisation of JGT in WBs, a research case study approach is presented and introduced in the document. The need for these (5) JGT research cases, as proposed in the specific chapter fie below, stems directly from one of the specific objectives of GreenFORCE, which focuses on generating knowledge through carrying out exploratory and comparative research on JGT processes, policies, costs and impacts, and their relation to the spatial and regional setting in the WB.
The research is an empirical effort in terms of observing the interrelation between just green transition and place specificity, with a particular focus in the Western Balkans as countries and as a region. The selection of cases (presented in detail below) does not intend to achieve full comparison between each other, rather aims to identify common elements at the regional level and list key aspects that could be used to formulate policy recommendations for each of the sectors addressed by the cases. Therefore, while no one unique research question could be formulated for all of the cases, all of them would seek to respond in varying degrees and through different sectorial and country perspectives to a set of questions which we identified based on the theoretical conceptualization.
In this way, we hope not only to bring salient answers on the potential future impacts of green transitions in the Western Balkans societies but also shed light on the regime-landscape interaction and how such an interaction can vary depending on its spatiality.
Finally, the research efforts aimed at identifying the endogenous potential for just green transition in the Western Balkan and contextual factors that define the related prospects and trajectories of innovation (Maassen, 2017), ensuring social justice
Application of Solar Activity Time Series in Machine Learning Predictive Modeling of Precipitation-Induced Floods
Get PDFThis research is devoted to the determination of hidden dependencies between the flow of particles that come from the Sun and precipitation-induced floods in the United Kingdom (UK). The analysis covers 20 flood events during the period from October 2001 to December 2019. The parameters of solar activity were used as model input data, while precipitations data in the period 10 days before and during each flood event were used as model output. The time lag of 0–9 days was taken into account in the research. Correlation analysis was conducted to determine the degree of randomness for the time series of input and output parameters. For establishing a potential causative link, machine learning classification predictive modeling was applied. Two approaches, the decision tree, and the random forest were used. We analyzed the accuracy of classification models forecast from 0 to 9 days in advance. It was found that the most important factors for flood forecasting are proton density with a time lag of 9, differential proton flux in the range of 310–580 keV, and ion temperature. Research in this paper has shown that the decision tree model is more accurate and adequate in predicting the appearance of precipitation-induced floods up to 9 days ahead with an accuracy of 91%. The results of this study confirmed that by increasing technical capabilities, using improved machine learning techniques and large data sets, it is possible to improve the understanding of the physical link between the solar wind and tropospheric weather and help improve severe weather forecasting
Recent Changes in the Structural and Regional Disparities of the Labour Market in Serbia-A Shift-Share Analysis
Get PDFThis paper provides a comparative analysis of the regional competitiveness of the labour market and the regional concentration of employment in Serbia for the period 2015–2020. A shift-share analysis was used to measure the spatial competitiveness. Based on the results, we have drawn up a typology of 25 regions (NUTS 3 level) in Serbia, and the main processes regarding structural changes and regional employment differentiation were identified as indicators of regional economic development. On this basis, conclusions about the state’s location policy in the given period can be drawn, in the context of both its institutional conditions and the accepted model of economic growth. The article provides a brief insight into the main methodological issues of the shiftshare analysis and proposes a new typogram for the classification of territorial units, which is applied in the interpretation of the results and the discussion. The aim of this study is to analyse the structural changes and regional differentiation of the labour market. The results are important for determining dynamics in the spatial distribution of employment and the regional competitiveness of the labour market and for improving regional and sectoral policies, regional planning, and labour market management at the regional and national levels
Tourism in the Context of Contemporary Theories of Regional Development
Get PDFTourism is a significant segment of development policy at the national level, and it is important in terms of contributing to the Gross domestic product (GDP) diversifying of economy, reducing disparities between regions, fostering development capital, and promoting regional development. Tourism greatly contributes to the sustainable development of a region and a unit of local self-government, in an environment where sometimes there are no other alternatives for achieving that goal. Theories of regional development and tourism have evolved over a similar period after the Second World War. The concept of regional development has undergone a significant transformation through various theories. The paper analyzes the main principles of the theory of endogenous regional development and the possibility of its application for tourism research as a development factor. Tourism development policy is often created by the views of these theories. The purpose of this paper is to indicate, based on the analysis of modern ideas and approaches to regional development, whether they are suitable for the study of tourism and which factors are decisive in achieving its development function. The paper points out certain elements of theories that can individually or together represent the theoretical basis for tourism development planning in regions and local government units
Specialization in tourism – a tourist-geographical research of foreign demand in Belgrade and Serbia
Get PDFСпецијализација у туризму се остварује у оквиру понуде и као део савремене потражње туриста. Јавља се и развија паралелно са туризмом, због промена у друштву и економији, што је концептуално чини комплексном. Специјализација се, осим у туризму, може изучавати и са
других аспеката, као што су друштвене науке или економска сфера. Да би се истражиле просторне карактеристике туристичког промета, израчунати су индекс специјализације и регионални фактор. Помоћу регионалног фактора (Рфа) утврђена је промена географског размештаја туристичких
долазака страних туриста у одређеном временском периоду, стављањем у однос мању и већу просторну целину (Београд и Србија). Временска компонента истраживања дефинисана је десетогодишњим периодом (2011‒2020. година) и доступним статистичким подацима. Индекс
специјализације показује диверзификацију у контексту земаља из којих туристи долазе, да би се истражила усмереност на поједине земље, тј. промене на страни туристичке потражње. Високе вредности индекса специјализације се не сматрају пожељним, јер је у том случају дестинација осетљива на једну или мањи број емитивних земаља. Самим тим се негативни трендови неодговарајуће одражавају на туризам у дестинацији. Циљ истраживања је да утврди да ли је евидентнa туристичка поларизација Београда у односу на остале дестинације у Србији. Од резултата истраживања очекује се да покажу у којој мери и због чега долази до флуктуације страних туристичких боравака у Београду и Србији.Specialization in tourism is realized within the offer and as a part of the modern tourist demand. It appears and develops in parallel with tourism, due to changes in society and the economy, which makes it conceptually complex. Apart from tourism, specialization can be studied from other aspects, such as social sciences or economics. In order to investigate the spatial characteristics of tourist traffic, the specialization index and the regional factor were calculated. With the help of the regional factor (Rfa), a change in the geographical distribution of tourist arrivals of foreign tourists in a certain period of time was determined, putting a smaller and larger spatial unit (Belgrade and Serbia) in a relationship. The time component of the research is defined by a ten-year period (2011–2020) and available statistical data. The specialization index shows diversification in the context of the countries from which tourists come, in order to investigate the focus on individual countries, ie. changes in tourism demand. High values of the specialization index are not considered desirable, because in that case the destination is sensitive to one or a smaller number of emitting countries. Therefore, the negative trends are in appropriately reflected on the tourism in the destination. The aim of the research is to determine whether the tourist polarization of Belgrade in relation to other destinations in Serbia is evident. The results of the research are expected to show to what extent and why there is a fluctuation of foreign
tourist stays in Belgrade and Serbia.Уредници: Марија Белиј Радин, Марина Весић, Сања Павлови
The reconstruction of the great 2020 torrential flood in Western Serbia
No full textThe Ljuboviđa watershed in Western Serbia with an area of 158 km2 is frequently affected by torrential floods, which have devastating effects. The soil characteristics, land use patterns and rugged topography ensure the rapid generation of surface runoff during extreme rainfall events. The main focus of this work is to reconstruct the extreme torrential flood event of Ljuboviđa on 22 June 2020, by applying three flood estimation methods suitable for ungauged watersheds—the hydraulic method of flood traces, the rational method and the combined method of Soil Conservation Service and synthetic unit hydrograph theory (SCS-SUH). In all three methods, there are the most sensitive and critical parameters, so the derivation of their values was carefully carried out. These parameters are the Manning roughness coefficient, n in the method of flood traces, the runoff coefficient, C in the rational method and the curve number, CN in the SCS-SUH method. Therefore, in the case of a watershed with no hydrological record, we propose the employment of multiple methods to minimize the uncertainties in the analysis of torrential floods. The approach with three implemented methods in this work allowed to compare the obtained results, i.e. estimated peak discharges: (a) QmaxFT = 176.8 m3 s−1 by applying the hydraulic method of flood traces; (b) QmaxRM = 152.7 m3 s−1 by applying the rational method; and (c) QmaxSCS = 186.7 m3 s−1 by applying the SCS-SUH method. Taking into account the variability of the results, the mean peak discharge of the June 2020 Ljuboviđa flood of 172.07 m3 s−1 is adopted, so the specific maximal discharge is 1.09 m3 s−1 km−2. According to the SCS-SUH method, we concluded that the flood event of Ljuboviđa on 22 June 2020, was a flood with a 100-year return period. The main results and findings could serve as a solid basis for designing future studies on flood risk management in response to the growing hazards of torrential floods
Geographic Medical Overview of Noncommunicable Diseases (Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes) in the Territory of the AP Vojvodina (Northern Serbia)
Get PDFThe objective of this study was a geographic medical analysis of noncommunicable diseases (cardiovascular diseases from 2010 to 2020 and diabetes from 2010 to 2019) in the AP Vojvodina (northern Serbia) in order to identify the most and least burdened counties as well as to present trends in the mentioned diseases. The Mann-Kendall trend test, a cluster analysis, and Getis–Ord Gi* method for hot spot analysis were applied in this analysis. Regarding acute coronary syndrome and myocardial infarction, the North Backa County had a lower mortality rate although the number of newly reported cases was above average. The largest number of new cases of unstable angina pectoris was in the North Backa, North Banat, and Middle Banat Counties, while the West Backa County was identified as a county with a higher mortality rate. The cluster analysis showed that the number of death cases from diabetes in the Srem County is significantly higher than that in the other counties. Likewise, the West Backa County had a high number of new diabetes patients, but also a much lower mortality rate. Chronic noncommunicable diseases are predominant in newly diagnosed incidences and death cases in the AP Vojvodina. Studies of this kind promote public health and healthcare systems in the researched area and in the Republic of Serbia, as well as in other countries
Evaluation of Rainfall Erosivity in the Western Balkans by Mapping and Clustering ERA5 Reanalysis Data
Get PDFThe Western Balkans (WB) region is highly prone to water erosion processes, and therefore, the estimation of rainfall erosivity (R-factor) is essential for understanding the complex relationships between hydro-meteorological factors and soil erosion processes. The main objectives of this study are to (1) estimate the spatial-temporal distribution R-factor across the WB region by applying the RUSLE and RUSLE2 methodology with data for the period between 1991 and 2020 and (2) apply cluster analysis to identify places of high erosion risk, and thereby offer a means of targeting suitable mitigation measures. To assess R-factor variability, the ERA5 reanalysis hourly data (0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution) comprised 390 grid points were used. The calculations were made on a decadal resolution (i.e., for the 1990s, the 2000s, and the 2010s), as well as for the whole study period (1991–2020). In order to reveal spatial patterns of rainfall erosivity, a k-means clustering algorithm was applied. Visualization and mapping were performed in python using the Matplotlib, Seaborn, and Cartopy libraries. Hourly precipitation intensity and monthly precipitation totals exhibited pronounced variability over the study area. High precipitation values were observed in the SW with a >0.3 mm h−1 average, while the least precipitation was seen in the Pannonian Basin and far south (Albanian coast), where the mean intensity was less than an average of 0.1 mm h−1. R-factor variability was very high for both the RUSLE and RUSLE2 methods. The mean R-factor calculated by RUSLE2 was 790 MJ mm ha−1·h−1·yr−1, which is 58% higher than the mean R-factor obtained from RUSLE (330 MJ mm ha−1·h−1·yr−1). The analysis of the R-factor at decadal timescales suggested a rise of 14% in the 2010s. The k-means algorithm for both the RUSLE and RUSLE2 methods implies better spatial distribution in the case of five clusters (K = 5) regarding the R-factor values. The rainfall erosivity maps presented in this research can be seen as useful tools for the assessment of soil erosion intensity and erosion control works, especially for agriculture and land use planning. Since the R-factor is an important part of soil erosion models (RUSLE and RUSLE2), the results of this study can be used as a guide for soil control works, landscape modeling, and suitable mitigation measures on a regional scale
GIS-based Landslide Susceptibility Mapping and Assessment using MCDM-BWM: A Case Study - City od Smederevo (Serbia)
No full textLandslides and slope processes constitute one of the most frequent natural hazards in valleys near major rivers and mountainous regions. The surface layer, characterized by its relatively loose composition, is prone to sliding due to a combination of distinct natural and human-related factors (i.e. landslide causal factors (CF)). Along the right bank of the Danube River, specific sections of Smederevo city face considerable susceptibility to landslide activation, frequently resulting in substantial material losses and posing a risk to the local populace. This study entails on-site investigation, involving the mapping of recent landslides, coupled with database analysis through Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and advanced remote sensing techniques. The initial analysis encompasses geological characteristics, morphometric conditions, hydrological and climatic factors, as well as anthropogenic influences such as land use, all contributing to soil instability. Employing GIS alongside the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) technique, specifically the Best-Worst Method (BWM), yielded insights into landslide susceptibility within the territory of Smederevo city respectively. By visualizing areas highly prone to such disastrous occurrences, policymakers are empowered to enact more suitable environmental protection measures and institute sustainable management practices for agricultural parcels in this region.Urednici: Slobodan B. Marković, Milica Pavkov Hrvojević, Lazar Lazi