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Sustainable Development and Evaluation of Natural Heritage in Protected Areas: The Case of Golija Nature Park, Serbia
No full textThis study applies a quantitative model to assess natural resources and degradation risks in mountain ecosystems, focusing on ecotourism’s role in balancing economic growth and environmental preservation in Golija Nature Park. Results show moderate tourism potential and low degradation risk, affirming ecotourism’s feasibility under sustainable management. The integration of natural assets, cultural heritage, and rural communities highlights ecotourism’s capacity to strengthen local economies, support demographic revitalization, and enhance biodiversity conservation in mountainous regions. The proposed approach offers a practical model for sustainable planning and management of natural areas in a broader international context
Population dynamics and rising temperatures in Serbia regional aspect
No full textSerbia is experiencing severe demographic challenges alongside significant environmental pressures. Both components of population dynamics—natural increase and migration balance—have contributed to a declining population trend. Simultaneously, Serbiais expected to be heavily impacted by climate change, particularly in terms of rising average temperatures. Using cluster analysis, this study identifies homogeneous areas within Serbia based on population dynamics and climate parameters. Employing 10 key variables, Serbian municipalities were classified into four distinct clusters. The capital, Belgrade, standsout as a ‘heat island’ with the highest immigration rates, while municipalities in Eastern, Southeastern, and partially Western Serbia—predominantly hilly and mountainous regions—exhibit more favorable climatic conditions but suffer from severe demographic decline (depopulation, negative migration balance, and negative natural increase). This analysis raises an essential question for future research: Will the intensification of climate change and the worsening environmental conditions in the capital alter migration patterns, directing populations toward regions characterized by lower environmental stress and reduced exposure to climate extremes in Serbia? This study establishes a strong foundation for further research within the POPENVIROS project, which aims to explore the relationship between population dynamics and climate change in Serbia. Identifying homogeneous regions—one of the primary objectives of this paper—will facilitate the mapping of specificareas that require deeper investigation into the complex interactions between demographic trends and climate change
Mogućnost dostizanja ciljeva održivog razvoja u regionalnom razvoju pograničnih oblasti Srbije
No full textPogranične oblasti Srbije su oblasti istaknute prirodne lepote i zaštićenih zona, ali i demografski i privredno uglavnom slabije razvijeni delovi države. Problem ovog istraživanja se zasniva na polaznoj pretpostavci da je pogranična oblast Srbije slabije razvijena u odnosu na državni prosek. Pogranične oblasti Srbije se suočavaju sa različitim ograničenjima regionalnog razvoja, kao što su zagađena životna sredina, depopulacioni procesi, privredno zaostajanje u odnosu na republički prosek i uglavnom marginalna uloga kada su u pitanju investicije i razvoj preduzetništva. Iz tog razloga, predmet analize ovoga rada će biti izdvajanje preduslova koje je neophodno ispuniti, kako bi dostizanje svih ciljeva održivog razvoja bilo olakšano. U savremeno doba, planiranje razvoja regija vrši se primenom koncepta održivog razvoja čije su tri ključne komponente: ekološka, ekonomska i socijalna. Cilj ovog rada je predočavanje značaja i mogućnosti primene koncepta održivog razvoja u planiranju budućeg razvoja pograničnih oblasti Srbije. Zadatak rada je ukazivanje na značaj ovog koncepta u planiranju razvoja i revitalizacije slabije razvijenih pograničnih oblasti Srbije, kao i ocena mogućnosti i opravdanosti primene ciljeva održivog razvoja. Praktičan značaj ovog rada ogleda se u mogućnosti dostizanja ciljeva održivog razvoja u funkciji kreiranja strategija regionalnog razvoja. Rezultati ove studije će poslužiti kao baza za podsticanje regionalnog razvoja i smanjivanje regionalnih dispariteta na nacionalnom nivou
Методологија за мерење регионалне родне равноправности у Републици Србији
No full textБазични циљ политике родне равноправности Републике Србије је стварање услова за смањење родног јаза на свим подручјима у Републици, односно да родни диспаритети на регионалном и локалном нивоу буду што нижи и да се временом смањују. Мерење регионалног родног јаза је неопходно из више разлога: регионални диспаритети родног јаза се чине видљивијим, креатори политика могу идентификовати приоритетне области за интервенције и омогућено је праћење ефекта подстицајних средстава, пројеката и програма усмерених на смањење регионалног родног јаза. Јер, `ако нешто не можете измерити, не можете управљати` (Peter Drucker).
На глобалној ранг листи WEF-a у 2024. Србија је позиционирана у групу држава са ниском родним јазом, налази се на 26 месту, испред свих транзиционих држава. Такође, Индекс родног развоја (UN) Србије у периоду 2015-2023. има тренд раста, Србија се, на тој глобалној листи, налази у првој групи држава које имају највиши ниво родне једнакости. Смањењу родног јаза највише је допринело смањење родног јаза економских показатеља (раст запослености, смањење незапослености и раст зарада). Међутим, студија је указала да су на регионалном и локалном нивоу присутни значајни диспаритети. У циљу побољшања родне једнакости Кабинет за координацију активности у области родне равноправности је у 2024. години и у 2025. години више од по 100 милиона динара усмерио на пројекте.
Регионалну родну равноправност у Републици Србији није могуће спровести без изградње ефикасног институционалног оквира политике родне равноправности, чији је један од кључних стубова креирање методологије за мерења родног јаза на регионалном и локалном нивоу. Овај документ има за циљ да постави по први пут темељ мерења регионалног и локалног родног јаза у Републици Србији у наредном периоду, који се базира на савременом аналитичком инструментаријуму. Мерење регионалних и локалних родних диспаритета мора континуирано да се усклађује са регионалном и локалном стварношћу, како би циљане мере политике родне равноправности биле усмерене ка оптималнијој ефикасности. Методологија мерења регионалног и локалног родног јаза у Републици Србији је значајан институционални корак у редизајнирању регионалне родне институционалне инфраструктуре у циљу смањења родних диспаритета.Наручилац: Кабинет министарке без портфеља задужене за координацију активности у области родне равноправности, спречавање насиља над женама и економског и политичког оснаживања женаИстраживачки тим:
Проф. др Велимир Шећеров, дипл. пр. планер
Проф. др Дејан Филиповић, дипл. пр. планер
Наташа Чокорило, дипл. математичар
Др. Валентина Иванић, научни сарадник, дипл. економистаКартографска подршка: МА Милутин Раденковић, инж. геодезиј
Uloga saobraćajne infrastrukture u održivom razvoju planinskih područja Srbije– na primeru Parka prirode Golija
No full textProstorno-funkcionalne promene u velikoj meri su uslovljene stanjem i dostupnošću saobraćajne infrastrukture, kao faktorom integracije planinskih područja u savremene tokove razvoja i održivosti.Prikazana je analiza uticaja putne mreže na transformaciju ovih pretežno ruralnih prostora, sa osvrtom na povezanost sa urbanim i turističkim centrima, kao i na ulogu u prilagođavanju društvenim i ekološkim izazovima(primer Park prirode Golija). Posebno su razmatrani aspekti održavanja saobraćajnica u uslovima ekstremnih klimatskih prilika (snežne padavine, kiša, niske temperature vazduha, poledica, magla...), pojave odrona, klizišta i dr. Korišćenjem GIS analiza i prostornih podataka, višekriterijumske analize ukazuje sena potencijalne pristupe koji mogu doprineti većoj otpornosti infrastrukture i njenoj funkcionalnosti u okviru ciljeva održivog razvojakao i direktnu povezanost razvoja saobraćajne mreže sa promenama u mobilnosti stanovništva, pristupu javnim uslugama iekonomskim. Preporuke uključuju strategije za dugoročno upravljanje infrastrukturom, uz integraciju savremenih tehnologija, digitalizacijui uvažavanje prirodno-geografskih i demografskih specifičnosti planinskih prostora
Environment and Demographic Trends – The Mountainous Area of Western Serbia
No full textChanges in the environment and the socio-economic structure of the mountainous areas of Western Serbia reflect the complex dynamics of geospatial transformation. Rural regions are simultaneously influenced by ecological changes, depopulation, and a shift toward non-agricultural economic activities. Traditional land use patterns are changing, with a reduction in agricultural and pasture areas, while the expansion of urban, tourism, and recreational zones indicates emerging development trends. The process of rural transformation is unfolding as a result of both global and local factors that impact the economic structure, lifestyles, and the use of natural resources. Due to population decline and migration flows, the spatial distribution of settlements exhibits marked heterogeneity, reflecting diverse demographic and functional dynamics – ranging from settlements with relative demographic stability and sustainable economic activities to those affected by depopulation, infrastructure degradation, and marginalization within the regional settlement network. Land use change was analyzed using the CORINE Land Cover database, revealing
that in recent decades opposing trends have been present – while some areas are undergoing intensive urbanization and infrastructure expansion, others are experiencing natural forest regeneration and restoration of natural ecosystems. The analysis of these processes enables a deeper understanding of the interconnections within the environment–population system. The future development of the mountainous areas of Western Serbia requires a holistic approach that integrates demographic, economic, and ecological factors for sustainable spatial planning.Editor: Natalija Miri
The Drought Hazard Index (DHI) vs. the Extended Satellite-based Drought Condition Index (SDCI): A Case Study of the Zaječar District
No full textThis paper examines the application of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in the identification of drought-prone areas in the Zaječar district. Drought is one of the most severe natural hazards, leading to the depletion of essential resources such as water and food. Its increasing frequency causes significant damage to socio-economic systems, the environment, and human well-being, posing a major challenge for affected communities. As climate variability intensifies, the need for accurate, spatially explicit drought assessment becomes more urgent, especially in vulnerable regions. The aim of the study is to identify the most drought susceptible areas of the Zaječar district by processing satellite imagery. The study applies the Drought Hazard Index (DHI), Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Extended Satellite-based Drought Condition Index (SDCI), combining remote sensing data with decision-support methodologies. The Drought Hazard Index (DHI) is derived from four parameters: Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI) and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI). Each of these components is assigned a weighting coefficient using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), which enables the prioritization of variables based on expert judgment and pairwise comparison. The Extended Satellite-based Drought Condition Index (SDCI) is calculated by incorporating LST, NDVI, NDMI, TWI, Albedo and Soil Moisture. These variables are normalized and combined to reflect drought severity, with higher values indicating more extreme drought conditions. The integration of additional parameters such as Albedo and Soil Moisture enhances the sensitivity of the index to surface and subsurface dryness. These methods aim to assess the spatial distribution of drought susceptibility, emphasizing potential risks and identifying critical zones for intervention. The results contribute to proactive planning, sustainable resource management, and informed decision-making in crisis situations. This research also highlights the importance of integrating geospatial technologies with environmental indicators to improve early warning systems and long-term drought mitigation strategies. Ultimately, this GIS-based approach supports resilience-building and adaptive strategies in the face of increasing environmental stressors.Editors: Slobodan B. Marković, Srđan Rončević, Lazar Lazi
Mapping Soil Erosion Intensity Using Erosion Potential Method (EPM): Case Study - Bosnia and Herzegovina
No full textThe territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina is threatened by the soil erosion process of varying intensity. This paper aims to apply the Erosion Potential Method (EPM) to determine the current state of erosion intensity in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and to identify and analyze the most significant factors contributing to erosion potential. It has been determined that categories I, II, and III, representing higher levels of erosion intensity, occupy 15.69 % of the total area. Areas under categories IV and V cover 84.31 % of the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina. This is primarily due to the presence of extensive forested areas, karst surfaces and karst fields, as well as extensive lowlands along major rivers. Creating an erosion map for the entire territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina has been a key priority of scientific research, especially considering that the results of this research (such as the erosion map) form the basis for integrated water management projects, soil conservation, forest ecosystem protection, environmental conservation, spatial planning, agriculture, and other human activities
Potential Impacts of Future Climate Conditions on Protected Areas in the Danube Region of the Republic of Serbia
No full textThis study investigates projected future climate conditions in five protected areas located within the Danube Region of the Republic of Serbia: Fruška Gora National Park, Đerdap National Park, Gornje Podunavlje Special Nature Reserve, Deliblatska Peščara Special Nature Reserve, and Koviljsko-Petrovaradinski Rit Special Nature Reserve. Based on climate model projections, the primary concern centers on altered precipitation patterns combined with rising temperatures. These changes are expected to subject natural vegetation and entire ecosystems to prolonged dry periods interspersed with more frequent extreme precipitation events. To evaluate these climatic changes, three climate indices are employed: the Forestry Aridity Index, the Hydro-Thermal Coefficient, and Ellenberg’s Climate Quotient. These indices are analyzed under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios—RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5—to estimate conditions through the end of the 21st century. Climate data were obtained from the Digital Climate Atlas of the Republic of Serbia and processed using QGIS 3.36.3 software. The average values were calculated for the following time periods: 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100. Historical (1961–1990) and contemporary climate observations (1991–2020) are also incorporated to establish a baseline for assessing future climate extremes. Anticipated negative impacts are contextualized using documented consequences of past extreme climate events. Notably,
the years 2000, 2003, 2007, 2012, 2017, 2022, and 2024 have been identified as particularly dry since the beginning of the century, during which protected areas experienced vegetation stress, elevated wildfire risk, and adverse effects on wildlife. This research aims to determine whether the climatic conditions observed during these years could become a new norm by the end of the century and to assess the implications for the long-term resilience of protected ecosystems in the region. The results are crucial for informing adaptive management strategies and enhancing the capacity of conservation efforts to respond to climate-induced stressors. By providing spatially and temporally explicit projections, this study supports evidence-based decision-making in nature protection and sustainable management planning.Editor: Natalija Miri
GIS and remote sensing methods in predicting the dissipation time of rural settlements under the influence of climate change in the Republic of Serbia
No full textIn this research the specific methodology used to better analyzed rural settlements and they properties. The Geographical Information Systems and Remote Sensing approaches taken to connect rural settlements with the climate change effects in Serbia. For the first time the classification of settlements after approved methodology divided in accordance of new spatial relations within the situation in Serbia. Ten morphometric types of rural settlements were analyzed in terms of social, economic, transport, demographic and climatic factors. The effects of climate change, estimated in this study, will become even more noticeable by 2050. The results showed that the rural settlements (villages) in southern and eastern Serbia are very similar to the villages in central Banat in terms of resolution and low value of mitigation of the effects of climate change. In 2050, 35% of the villages in the south, 30% in the east, and 23% in other regions will be dissipated. The total number of dissipated rural settlements in the period from 2011 to 2050 is 680 or 15% in total. By means of GIS and remote sensing methods, all rural settlements were mapped and presented statistically, along with their characteristics. This method is useful for the analysis of rural settlements with 0–15,000 inhabitants. The shape of the settlements was also analyzed and the zones with the strongest impacts of climate change were marked. The hazardous events are divided into extreme rainfall, wind, drought and maximum temperatures and compared with the types of rural settlements. The climate factors included, together with other parameters such as socio-economic, demographic and urban planning factors, provide a complete overview and a better understanding of the survival of rural settlements in the future. The main contribution of this research is the creation of a new classification of rural settlements, taking into account the effects of climate change and new socio-economic theories. In this way, the old classifications and theories that were established fifty years ago will be improved