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From Engle & Granger model to Johansen model for a more accurate photovoltaic power output forecast
No full textThe French government has recently decided to increase the Photovoltaic (PV) capacities to reach 35GW by 2028 in all french territories, the European territory, and overseas territories such as Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean. However, integrating growing numbers of PV power installations and microgrids onto the grid can result in larger-than-expected fluctuations in grid frequency. This is due to PV power output that is not only a function of the operating temperature and solar irradiation but also of other environmental parameters. In this paper, only two environmental parameters are considered in the European zone and when the Engle & Granger statistical method is used, a relationship between variables such as photovoltaic power output and solar irradiation at a different level is obtained. The final relationship without suspicious heteroscedasticity is determined. The model is formulated on the basis of photovoltaic real conditions statistical approach and is more realistic than steady approach models. The Engle & Granger method does not distinguish several cointegration relationships when more variables are considered. For the overseas zone, we added other measured environmental variables and applied a more robust statistical method known as the Johansen vector error correction model (VECM) cointegration approach. In the VECM model, for N explanatory variables and for N > 2, we established a long-run equilibrium relationship that has been tested and the outcome is more than reliable when comparing the model to measured data.</p
Simple way to calculate neutrino masses
Get PDFThe formula of neutrino masses was received on the basis of simple physical assumptions, and neutrino masses of 3 types were calculated for the moment of their birth</p
A simple algorithm for GCD of polynomials
Get PDFBased on the Bezout approach we propose a simple algorithm to determine the gcd of two polynomials that don't need division, like the Euclidean algorithm, or determinant calculations, like the Sylvester matrix algorithm. The algorithm needs only n steps for polynomials of degree n. Formal manipulations give the discriminant or the resultant for any degree without needing division or determinant calculation. </p
Diencephalic storm in trauma patients: Is it really that rare
Get PDFIntroduction: Diencephalic storm is characterized by extreme episodic catecholamine release in the presence of a stressor and it is usually refractory to standard antihypertensives. The treatment of choice during the crisis is propofol and the best preventative measure is to remove the stressor (i.e. ventilator). Case presentation: A 32-year-old male sustained 2nd and 3rd degree burn to 25 percent of the body surface area that included a severe inhalation component. The patient was admitted to the Burn Intensive Care Unit at the Arnold Luterman Regional Burn Center in Mobile, AL. The patient had frequent episodes (3-5 per day) of severe agitation that were accompanied by extreme tachycardia of > 200 beats per minute and hypertension (280/140). The inciting event was often endotracheal suctioning, but less noxious stimulation also resulted in similar episodes. During these episodes, the patient had significantly elevated catecholamine levels that improved after extubation. The patient’s symptoms were refractor to standard antihypertensives but immediately resolved when given propofol. Further episodes of the diencephalic storm were treated successfully with propofol. Once the patient was removed from mechanical ventilation, there were no further episodes. Conclusion: Diencephalic Storm may be difficult to diagnose due to a lack of familiarity with this rare entity. Any patient with severe agitation combined with the effects of episodic large catecholamine surges should be considered to have Diencephalic Storm. The standard immediate treatment is propofol due to the lack of responsiveness of standard antihypertensives and the removal of the stressor. </p
Are Leukocyte Esterase (LE) strip and Alpha-Defensin kit reliable enough to diagnose peri-prosthetic joint infection, intra-operatively?
Get PDFBackground: Despite improvement in sterilization techniques, peri-prosthetic joint infection (PJI) is the most fearsome complication after hip and knee arthroplasties. Various strategies have been devised from time to time to diagnose and treat PJI. Recently, Leukocyte esterase and alpha-defensin are identified as markers of active infection in synovial fluid. Therefore, kits are designed to detect these two markers during surgery. If found reliable, these tests will increase the confidence of surgeons in situations, where the diagnosis of PJI is not established.Material and methods: This study was conducted on 132 patients in Lahore General Hospital; from August 2020 to December 2021. Leukocyte Esterase strip and Alpha-Defensin kit were used to detect infection in synovial samples taken just before performing arthrotomy, intra-operatively. Patients were divided into 2 groups, Group-A had 31 patients with peri-prosthetic joint infection (PJI) diagnosed as per Musculoskeletal Infection Society (MSIS) criteria, whereas in Group B 101 patients were present in whom PJI was not present. Synovial tissue and fluid samples were also sent to a laboratory for culture and histopathology; so that sensitivity and specificity of LE strips and Alpha-Defensin Kits could find out.Results: The mean age of patients in our study was 59.6 SD 11.90 years with a male to female ratio of 85:47. 31 patients were diagnosed as PJI after primary hip or knee arthroplasty based on serological investigations and culture of joint aspiration. The sensitivity and specificity of LE strips were 90.32% and 95.04%, whereas that of Alpha defensin was 93.54% and 100% respectively. The correlation coefficient between the LE strip test and synovial fluid polymorphonuclear neutrophils (PMN) counts was 0.811 and it was even higher when the Alpha-Defensin kit was used (0.845).Conclusion: Both LE and Alpha-Defensin kits are highly specific and sensitive in diagnosing PJI. Though Alpha-defensin is more accurate the cost-effectiveness of the LE strip makes it a more feasible option in diagnosing PJI, intra-operatively. </p
Holistic cancer management as a model for the emergence of a personalized bio-psycho-socio-spiritual model of diseases, development and management
Get PDFPsycho-social support lies at the core of Patient and Family-Centered Care (PFCC) that health care systems aim to transform. The objective is to comprehensively inform patients and families of their health issues, empower them to take charge of their illness, and participate in making choices about managing their health and wellbeing [1].</p
The psychopathological roots of affective dependence: The origin and clinical evolution of the toxic bond
Get PDFBackground and aims: Starting from the concept of “affective addiction”, then reworked and critiqued according to a clinical key, it was hypothesized that it is not a behavioral addiction, as erroneously determined by modern psychiatry, but is a symptom of a well-identified personality disorder. The purpose of this research is to test the correctness of this hypothesis. Materials and methods: Clinical interview, based on narrative-anamnestic and documentary evidence and the basis of the Perrotta Human Emotions Model (PHEM) concerning their emotional and perceptual-reactive experience, and administration of the battery of psychometric tests published in international scientific journals by the author of this work: 1) Perrotta Integrative Clinical Interviews (PICI-2), to investigate functional and dysfunctional personality traits; 2) Perrotta Individual Sexual Matrix Questionnaire (PSM-Q), to investigate the individual sexual matrix; 3) Perrotta Affective Dependence Questionnaire (PAD-Q), to investigate the profiles of affective and relational dependence; 4) Perrotta Human Defense Mechanisms Questionnaire (PDM-Q), to investigate the defense mechanisms of the Ego. Results: In a population sample of 206 subjects (103 m/f couples, in a stable relationship for at least 1 year and heterosexual), it was found that the totality exhibited at least 5 dysfunctional personality traits of the borderline, dependent, and masochistic types, with secondary traits of the neurotic, narcissistic covert, psychotic and histrionic types. Almost the totality of the sample also showed marked dysfunctionality of a sexual nature and activation of defense mechanisms typical of psychopathological processes. Conclusions: The data obtained confirmed the study hypothesis, and it is, therefore, plausible to think that affective addiction is not a behavioral addiction but a manifested symptom of a broader framework of personality disorder and that it is established in subjects with the same dysfunctional personality traits. Such subjects, in close relational contact, hyperactivate themselves, according to a logic of pathological determinism. The maintenance of hyperactivation then facilitates the decompensation of the subject’s psychopathological picture, reinforcing dysfunctionality and feeding the pathological circle that keeps one’s personality structure alive, in a continuous feeding determined by the similar or same-natured traits present in the partner. This also explains why, once affective dependence is established, it is so complicated to succeed in breaking the chain of events that keeps the dysfunctional relationship alive, since overactivation prevents a correct, conscious, and rational assessment of the factors at play in relationships between elements and people. To summarize: the more the hyperactivation persists, the more it reinforces the psychopathological decompensation that keeps alive both the toxic relationship and the bond between the two individuals who, while tending toward destruction or self-destruction, fail to break the affective, sentimental, and sexual bond, maintaining over time an increasingly toxic dysfunctional attachment.</p
Machine learning characterization of a novel panel for metastatic prediction in breast cancer
Get PDFMetastasis is one of the most challenging problems in cancer diagnosis and treatment, as causal factors have yet to be fully disentangled. Prediction of the metastatic status of breast cancer is important for informing treatment protocols and reducing mortality. However, the systems biology behind metastasis is complex and driven by a variety of interacting factors. Furthermore, the prediction of cancer metastasis is a challenging task due to the variation in parameters and conditions specific to individual patients and mutation subtypes.In this paper, we apply tree-based machine learning algorithms for gene expression data analysis in the estimation of metastatic potentials within a group of 490 breast cancer patients. Tree-based machine learning algorithms including decision trees, gradient boosting, and extremely randomized trees are used to assess the variable importance of different genes in breast cancer metastasis.ighly accurate values were obtained from all three algorithms, with the gradient boosting method having the highest accuracy at 0.8901. The most significant ten genetic variables and fifteen gene functions in metastatic progression were identified. Respective importance scores and biological functions were also cataloged. Key genes in metastatic breast cancer progression include but are not limited to CD8, PB1, and THP-1.</p
Renewable energy consumption and Inclusive Growth: Evidence from 20 African countries
Get PDFIn Africa, the need for energy is growing. When it comes to renewable energy resources in Africa zone, it is unequivocally needed. Many African countries are experiencing development therefore they are shifting to the use of renewable energy. In that view, this study aims to discover the potential impact of renewable energy consumption on inclusive growth in 20 African countries for a period covering 1997 To 2015. To tackle this estimation technique namely Pesaran’s (2007) [1] CD test, Pesaran’s (2015) [2] LM test and Breusch and Pagan’s (1980) [3] LM test, slope homogeneity test, Average Mean Group (AMG), Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) and pairwise granger were employed. Concentration on inclusive growth contributes greatly to the economy size and ensures employment opportunity creation for the society in a different segment, the result of the study indicates that renewable energy consumption significantly impacted inclusive growth in n the selected Africa Countries. Consequently, if countries like Africa prosper in switching to renewable energy, unbelievable gains could be captured in terms of inclusive growth.</p
Influence of high temperatures on Post-COVID-19 conditions
Get PDFPatients with chronic diseases are especially vulnerable on hot days because high temperatures lead to exacerbation of a number of cardiovascular, neurological, autoimmune, and other chronic diseases. Acute SARS-CoV-2 infection has left tens of thousands of Bulgarians suffering from a new chronic disease: Post COVID-19 syndrome. The Bulgarian Cardiac Institute, in trend with innovations, has launched the first worldwide study to establish the relationship between high ambient temperatures and Post COVID-19 conditions. It covers 1310 citizens and was held during the hottest month in history - July 2021. Eight districts in Bulgaria are covered, and for each of them, we calculated a number of meteorological parameters and determined their influence on the persistent signs and symptoms. Shumen District is the district with the highest percentage of citizens with peristaltic complaints (86%) and the most pronounced in terms of severity. This is the area with the lowest average daily maximum temperature (28.44º), the highest average night minimum temperature (20.42º), and the lowest average temperature amplitude (8.02º) for July 2021. It is characteristic that the neurological symptoms (dizziness, headache, impaired concentration, and memory) are predominant at a lower temperature amplitude (Shumen district). Symptoms of the cardiovascular system (shortness of breath, fatigue, palpitations, chest pain) are more commonly reported at higher temperature amplitudes (Pleven district).The results of the study show that high values of ambient temperatures affect Post COVID-19 conditions. The most unfavorable effect is exerted by the high average night minimum temperatures and the small temperature amplitude. Cardiovascular symptoms are particularly pronounced at large temperature amplitudes and neurological at small temperature amplitudes. Post-COVID-19 conditions are unpredictable and patient care continues during the hot months.</p