VGTU Journals (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University - Vilnius Tech)
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How macroeconomic factors impact residential real estate prices in Eastern Europe
No full text Purpose – This study examines how GDP growth, interest rates, and unemployment rates influence residential real estate prices in politically and economically stable Eastern Euro- pean countries, aiming to identify key drivers of property value changes in the region.
Research methodology – The study uses multiple linear regression and Pearson correlation (r) to assess the relationship between variables and housing prices, with ARIMA (3,1,0) applied for short-term price forecasts based on cyclical time series trends.
Findings – The findings show a strong correlation between macroeconomic indicators and residential real estate prices, with the key influencing factor varying by country, reflecting diverse market sensitivities and regional economic contexts.
Research limitations – The research is limited to Eastern European countries with stable political and economic conditions, excluding those facing instability. Future studies could expand the analysis to include such regions to provide a more comprehensive view.
Practical implications – The results provide valuable guidance for policymakers and investors in crafting strategies tailored to specific macroeconomic conditions, enhancing market predictions and stability.
Originality/Value – By focusing on the underexplored residential real estate market in Eastern Europe, this study contributes novel insights into regional housing price determinants and offers a foundation for further research on macroeconomic impacts in real estate markets
Forecasting short-term passenger flow on a bus route: a splitting–integrating method based on passenger travel behavior
No full textShort-term passenger flow forecasting is the key to implement real-time dynamic dispatching of buses, which can meet the travel time requirement of passengers with different attributes. In practice, it is difficult to obtain passenger attribute information due to the restriction of bus information systems or other conditions. This article proposes a new perspective on identifying passenger attribute information, that is, the correlation between the bus card number and the travel time is used to analyse passenger travel behaviour. Then using the travel frequency as the splitting boundary, the passenger set is split into different types of subsets, which are predicted by different methods. The total forecast values are obtained by integration, so as to explore the effectiveness of the passenger attribute identification and splitting–integrating method. The result shows that: (1) compared with the forecasting method without considering the passenger travel behaviour, the performance of splitting–integrating method is better, and the passenger attribute identification method is effective; (2) the value of the splitting boundary will affect the size and consistency of the subset, and the optimal value can be sought according to forecast results; (3) different types of subsets should be treated by different forecasting models and combination paths
Is it inverted U? Testing relationships between debt and growth: new evidence from smooth transition kink regression
No full textThis study examines the inverted U-shaped relationship between public debt and economic growth rates in 44 countries, covering developed, developing, and underdeveloped economies, using data from 1970 to 2020. Unlike previous studies, which often use quadratic regression, threshold, and kink regression models that may not accurately capture the true relationship, we employ the smooth transition kink regression model for this analysis. Our results show that an inverted U-shaped relationship exists in 8 out of the 44 countries studied. The turning point of this relationship, where debt levels shift from beneficial to detrimental, ranges from 23.817% to 96.674%, highlighting the variance in optimal debt levels across different countries. These findings confirm the presence of the inverted U-shaped relationship but reject the notion of a universal turning point applicable to all countries.
First published online 17 March 202
The role of ICT in shaping international trade dynamics: a G20 perspective
No full textThis research examines the influence of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on economic expansion and commerce within G20 nations. Findings reveal that the digital revolution and advancements in artificial intelligence have significantly bolstered the global digital economy, fostering enhanced productivity, innovation, and trade. Utilizing panel data analysis, the study demonstrates that progress in ICT technology contributed approximately 0.33% to economic growth. Additionally, it facilitated an expansion of about 0.12% in product trade and 0.14% in service trade. The research also uncovered a “Diminishing Marginal Returns of ICT on Trade” effect, where trade volume increases with ICT development, but at a decelerating rate over time. To maximize trade growth potential, the study proposes increased governmental investment in ICT technology development and innovation, coupled with the establishment of digital trade standards. These measures could position digital trade as a catalyst for future economic expansion. While the research acknowledges limitations such as a restricted sample size and reliance on panel data, its conclusions offer valuable insights for policymakers and enterprises in emerging economies.
First published online 2 July 202
Unlocking the inverted-U: exploring the threshold impact of population aging on income inequality dynamics
No full textAs population aging unfolds at an unprecedented scale worldwide, its impact on income inequality continues to be contentious, with no clear consensus in the literature. Rather than viewing the aging-inequality linkage as solely positive or negative, this paper introduces a modified life cycle with precautionary behavior, indicating that inequality may initially worsen with aging before stabilizing at later stages. The Dynamic Panel Threshold Kink (DPTK) regression method is used to identify the threshold point of aging intensity at which the inequality begins to moderate following a period of intensification. The findings reveal a threshold aging intensity of 1.4%, which supports an inverted-U characterization of the aging-inequality nexus. The results suggest that liberalizing trade and improving government redistribution can assist countries experiencing a rise in inequality. At the same time, the prevalence of precautionary effects due to population aging may offer a natural defense against the detrimental effects of inequality over time.
First published online 05 June 202
Integrated expert model for risk assessment and ensuring the safety of tourist trips: economic and technological aspects
No full textThis study aims to develop an integrated expert model for assessing and ensuring the safety of tourist trips, with a particular emphasis on the economic and technological aspects. The model adopts a multi-level approach, spanning from individual perceptions of safety during travel to national assessments of regional tourism security. The economic factors, such as the financial implications of safety measures and their impact on regional tourism development, play a central role in this approach. The methodological foundation includes the theory of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic, expert evaluations, and knowledge-based intelligent analysis. For the first time, we received: an information model for assessing the safety level of a tourist trip; a fuzzy method for determining the aggregated term risk assessment of one’s safety of a tourist trip; an expert method of assessing the level of the sense of security of the region on the part of the participants of the tourist movement; a hybrid method of determining the degree of risk to the safety of a tourist trip. The model not only provides a quantitative assessment but also highlights the safety risks associated with tourist trips, thereby enabling regional analyses that support decision-making aimed at ensuring tourism safety through both economic and technological means solutions
Art-technologies for creating an artistic image: issues of imitation and the transitivity of the creative process
No full textThe article reveals certain aesthetic patterns in the creation of augmented reality content, namely the importance of modelling the real environment, transitivity, and simulation of traditional practices of creating sculptural forms. These issues are analyzed on the author’s projects examples organized through the augmented reality use (applications REMS Companion App and MININ Art). An aesthetic patterns interdisciplinary research of augmented reality content perception allows us to draw significant conclusions about the artistic uniqueness of virtual images. The article reveals certain regularities in the creation of augmented reality content, including the peculiarities of imitation of traditional sculptural techniques and materials texture. It has been established that in order to create a realistic embodiment of virtual models in a real environment and to make these objects three-dimensional, it is important to take into account the peculiarities of chiaroscuro. Technologically, this can be done by installing a light source in the virtual scene that will illuminate objects at a certain angle. Consideration of the results of technological experience of content generation suggests that augmented reality allows the artist to create a transitional creative environment by imitating real space. When virtual content is detached from its marker (the image of real space), the specific author’s context is lost. As a result, we can safely talk about the content uniqueness created with the help of augmented reality technology. Having all the signs of artistic creativity, these models can be called augmented reality sculptures – a form of synthetic digital and visual art
Creativity between nihilism and the search for meaning: Zeitgeist and creative innovation in body art
No full textA recent tattoo style, the sticker sleeve, brings with it some peculiarities: for example, unlike other styles, the focus seems to be less on originality or artistry. Further, the motifs integrated often imply almost incompatible messages, from spirituality and the search for meaning to the denial of meaning. Based on content analysis and interviews, the article explores what this style reveals about creativity and the Zeitgeist. One can interpret this in the tradition of nihilism as a denial of meaning or as a general instead of concrete concept of meaningfulness. Furthermore, it can be seen as a symbol for a creative way of dealing with cognitive dissonance. A complicated relationship to individuality is articulated, on the one hand the overcoming of the desire for unconditional individuality in favor of the recognition of shared human features, on the other hand the call to look behind the surface and recognize individual meanings behind shared looks
Apartment prices, the business cycle and time on market: Evidence from Bucharest
No full textThe issue of time on market (TOM) correlation with the sale price remains under-explored considering the importance and complexity of the housing market. This paper argues that TOM is influenced by variables other than transaction prices and tests the hypothesis that the business cycle is important in explaining the dynamics of TOM and driving transaction prices in the housing market. In testing this hypothesis, the paper investigates the role of transaction prices and TOM in the housing market in Bucharest, Romania using granular observations of 32,000 price listings over the period 2013–2017, a time-scale that captures the economic recovery phase following the global financial crisis. The analysis shows that spatial correlation is strong for TOM rather than weak and that reinforcing spatial effects evidenced among TOM in transactions of closed units would reflect the strong clustering in prices but are balanced in a type of (contrary sign) distribution effect that diminish the whole spatial impact in TOM in similar size, describing a corrective mechanism leading to a more balanced impact on TOM. Results show that GDP affects transaction prices pro-cyclically (0.062%) and with persistence (0.054%), while only GDP growth (the cycle) influences TOM (0.352%)
Impact of financial market development on housing prices: Evidence from China
No full textHousing prices in cities of China had soared by 70% from 2012 to 2021, attracting increasing public concern. Financial market development may suppress housing prices by allowing speculators to channel capital into financial markets rather than merely into the property sector, whereby it plays a critical role in shaping housing prices theoretically. This study aims to investigate the impact of financial market development on housing prices with a sample of 261 cities in China from 2011 to 2021, concluding that financial market development is negatively related to housing prices based on the GMM model. Correspondingly, a potential policy to decrease housing prices is to promote financial market development