E-Journal Politeknik Negeri Samarinda
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The Case of Maternity Benefits
No full textThis paper studies tax evasion and
the contribution-benefit link in the context of maternity
benefits in Hungary. Earnings and employment patterns
suggest pre-pregnancy underreporting, followed by
formalization of some earnings and employment during
pregnancy to increase benefits. Reported earnings in small,
domestic, and less productive firms bunch at the minimum
wage before pregnancy and the benefit-maximizing threshold
during pregnancy. Using a policy reform, the paper shows
that the size of the reporting response tracks changing
reporting incentives. Increases in pre-childbirth reported
earnings are partially sticky after maternity leave. The
results indicate that linking benefits to contributions can
reduce tax evasion and improve formalization
Rapport national sur le climat et le développement de Madagascar
No full textThe World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are a core diagnostic that integrates climate change and development. They help countries prioritize the most impactful actions that can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation and resilience, while delivering on broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support the low-carbon, resilient transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector and development partners and enable engagements with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements and operations, and help attract funding and direct financing for high-impact climate action.The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are a core diagnostic that integrates climate change and development. They help countries prioritize the most impactful actions that can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation and resilience, while delivering on broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support the low-carbon, resilient transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector and development partners and enable engagements with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements and operations, and help attract funding and direct financing for high-impact climate action.The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are a core diagnostic that integrates climate change and development. They help countries prioritize the most impactful actions that can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation and resilience, while delivering on broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support the low-carbon, resilient transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector and development partners and enable engagements with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements and operations, and help attract funding and direct financing for high-impact climate action.Climate change has made delivering
better development in Madagascar ever more urgent. This
Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) finds that
Madagascar’s aspiration to evolve into an emerging country
by 2040 will be derailed unless it can bolster its
resilience to intensifying climate shocks to safeguard its
modest development gains and boost economic growth. The high
frequency of extreme climate shocks since the 1970s has led
to significant macroeconomic disturbances and weak growth.
This CCDR examines the implications of future climate change
for Madagascar’s growth, and the potential benefits of both
structural reforms and adaptation investments. It outlines
three priority areas for building resilience to climate
change, and calculates the costs needed to achieve this. It
provides detailed recommendations for finding the finance
required, as well as for implementing the policy challenges identified.Face au changement climatique, il est plus urgent que jamais que Madagascar se développe de façon
optimale. Le présent Rapport national sur le climat et le développement (CCDR) constate que l’aspiration
de Madagascar à devenir un pays émergent d’ici à 2040 sera compromise à moins que l’île ne parvienne
à renforcer sa résilience face à des chocs climatiques de plus en plus intenses afin de préserver ses
modestes acquis en matière de développement et de stimuler la croissance économique. La fréquence
élevée des chocs climatiques extrêmes depuis les années 1970 a entraîné d’importantes perturbations
macroéconomiques et une faible croissance. Le Rapport examine les conséquences de l’évolution
future du climat sur la croissance de Madagascar et les avantages potentiels de réformes structurelles
et d’investissements pour l’adaptation. Il définit trois domaines prioritaires pour le renforcement de
la résilience au changement climatique et calcule les coûts pour y parvenir. Il formule en outre des
recommandations détaillées pour trouver les financements nécessaires, ainsi que pour appliquer les
mesures publiques recensées
Demographic Change, Non-communicable Diseases, and Human Capital
No full textThe World Bank has a long history of
engaging in population issues, ranging from childhood
illness, nutrition, fertility, and safe motherhood to the
aging process. It supports countries in addressing the
implications of the demographic process through analytical
work, technical advice, and financing to expand health
coverage, redesign pension systems and social security, and
undertake actions that support their economies. This report
follows that tradition and analyzes the steps to promote
healthy longevity and enhance the quantity and quality of
human capital through attention to the burgeoning problem of
Non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Research began before
COVID and concluded after, drawing upon lessons from the
pandemic. The report is intended to inform policy and action
at the country level. The demographic transformation is a
global phenomenon, and the increasing population of the
middle-aged and elderly brings with it many challenges which
are more acute in low- and middle-income countries where
resources are more limited. The increasing number of adults
calls upon countries to institute the social and economic
measures of ensuring their wellbeing and making them
optimally productive. Health must be at the center of these
concerns, not only its preservation towards the end but its
optimization throughout the life-course. This report builds
on a compendium of analytical papers covering the economics
of avoidable mortality, long-term care, behavior change,
social protection, and whole-of-government solutions to
support healthy longevity. It emphasizes that a great deal
of ill health globally is a result of inequities—especially
poverty and gender inequities that limit or delay access to
and use of health care. High out-of-pocket payments for NCDs
can plunge households further into poverty or extreme
poverty. Women live longer with NCD morbidities
Un cadre Dynamique pour Guider le Développement Durable dans le Secteur Alimentaire à la Croissance la plus Rapide au Monde - Ete 2024
No full textThe global aquaculture industry has
seen considerable expansion in recent years, driven by
rising consumer needs, a lack of growth from capture
fisheries, progress in production technologies, and
augmented investments from both private sector and
governmental bodies. Presently, aquaculture is the world’s
fastest growing food sector and is anticipated to outgrow
capture fisheries by 2027. Sustaining this growth will
require continued industry support. Recognising this, the
World Bank Group (WBG) has established a Global Aquabusiness
Investment Advisory Platform (AquaInvest Platform) that aims
to develop and disseminate best practices in aquabusiness
development, with a view to ensuring economic prosperity,
social well-being, and environmental sustainability. By
nurturing innovation and collaboration, the AquaInvest
Platform seeks to empower aquaculture practitioners,
investors and governments to meet the challenges posed by
stagnating fisheries production and the increasing demand
for food from a rapidly growing human population. The guide
describes the necessary requirements and enabling factors
that need to be in place to stimulate aquaculture investment
and business growth that is socially, environmentally, and
economically sustainable. The guide is global in their
geographic scope, and applies to all major aquaculture
species groups, production systems and production scales.L’industrie mondiale de l’aquaculture a connu une expansion considérable ces dernières années, tirée par les besoins croissants des consommateurs, le manque de croissance de la pêche de capture, les progrès des technologies de production et l’augmentation des investissements du secteur privé et des organismes publics. À l’heure actuelle, l’aquaculture est le secteur alimentaire qui connaît la croissance la plus rapide au monde et devrait dépasser la pêche de capture d’ici 2027. Le maintien de cette croissance nécessitera un soutien continu du secteur. Conscient de cette situation, le Groupe de la Banque mondiale a mis en place une plateforme mondiale de conseil en investissement dans l’aquaculture (AquaInvest Platform) qui vise à élaborer et à diffuser les meilleures pratiques en matière de développement de l’aquaculture, en vue d’assurer la prospérité économique, le bien-être social et la durabilité environnementale. En favorisant l’innovation et la collaboration, la plateforme AquaInvest vise à donner aux professionnels de l’aquaculture, aux investisseurs et aux gouvernements les moyens de relever les défis posés par la stagnation de la production halieutique et la demande croissante de produits alimentaires d’une population humaine en croissance rapide. Le guide décrit les exigences nécessaires et les facteurs favorables qui doivent être en place pour stimuler les investissements dans l’aquaculture et une croissance durable sur le plan social, environnemental et économique. Le guide a une portée géographique mondiale et s’applique à tous les grands groupes d’espèces, systèmes de production et échelles de production aquacoles
Buffer or Bottleneck? Employment Exposure to Generative AI and the Digital Divide in Latin America
No full textEmpirical evidence on the potential
impacts of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) is
mostly focused on high-income countries. In contrast, little
is known about the role of this technology on the future
economic pathways of developing economies. This paper
contributes to fill this gap by estimating the exposure of
the Latin American labor market to GenAI. It provides
detailed statistics of GenAI exposure between and within
countries by leveraging a rich set of harmonized household
and labor force surveys. To account for the slower pace of
technology adoption in developing economies, it adjusts the
measures of exposure to GenAI by using the likelihood of
accessing digital technologies at work. This is then used to
assess the extent to which the digital divide across and
within countries will be a barrier to maximize the
productivity gains among occupations that could otherwise be
augmented by GenAI tools. The findings show that certain
characteristics are consistently correlated with higher
exposure. Specifically, urban-based jobs that require higher
education, are situated in the formal sector, and are held
by individuals with higher incomes are more likely to come
into interaction with this technology. Moreover, there is a
pronounced tilt toward younger workers facing greater
exposure, including the risk of job automation, particularly
in the finance, insurance, and public administration
sectors. When adjusting for access to digital technologies,
the findings show that the digital divide is a major barrier
to realizing the positive effects of GenAI on jobs in the
region. In particular, nearly half of the positions that
could potentially benefit from augmentation are hampered by
lack of use of digital technologies. This negative effect of
the digital divide is more pronounced in poorer countries
Leveraging the Global Green Transition and the Reforms Needed to Become a High-Income Country
No full textThis paper uses the World Bank
Long-Term Growth Model and extensions to study Peru’s
long-term growth prospects and its potential to attain
high-income economy status. Under a business-as-usual
baseline, Peru’s potential GDP growth declines slowly from
2.1 to 1.7 percent over the next two decades, due mostly to
demographic factors. In this baseline, it takes more than
half a century to reach high income status. To accelerate
growth, the paper considers moderate and ambitious reform
scenarios for the non-resource sector through faster total
factor productivity (TFP) growth, human capital growth, and
higher investment rates. The ambitious reform path
accelerates growth to an average of 4.3 percent in the
simulation period (2024–50), allowing Peru to reach
high-income status by 2045. The paper also considers a
Global Green Transition scenario, where Peru takes advantage
of higher global demand for copper from clean technologies.
In that scenario, higher copper prices, greater exploration,
improved mining technology, and reinvested copper windfalls
increase baseline growth to 3.1 percent by 2035. If Peru
were able to harness the global green transition and
implement ambitious reforms in the non-resource sector,
growth could accelerate to an average of 5 percent, and the
country could reach high-income status by 2042
Responses to Signals of Political and Economic Stabilization
No full textIn recent years, Myanmar has
witnessed considerable economic and political instability,
leading many young people, particularly the higher-skilled,
to consider migrating abroad for improved prospects. This
paper employs an innovative method to quantify migration
intentions among high-skilled youth by analyzing the take-up
of migration at different wage premia. A randomized survey
experiment then evaluates how hypothetical political and
economic stabilization scenarios impact these intentions.
The findings show that 35 percent of the respondents would
be willing to take a similar job abroad for pay equal to
their current income. Randomization within the survey
indicates that political stabilization would potentially
reduce high-skilled workers’ desire to migrate by about 15
percent, especially among men, those living in high-conflict
areas, and persons with lower absolute income but higher
perceived relative income. In contrast, prospects of
economic stabilization do not have a significant effect on
migration intentions. In the absence of political stability
and a reduction in conflict, economic stabilization is
unlikely to reduce talent outflows among the young
Fiscal and Welfare Benefits of Economic Participation by Syrian Refugees in Jordan
No full text"A Triple Win: Fiscal and Welfare Benefits of Economic Participation by Syrian Refugees in Jordan" is the result of a joint effort by the World Bank and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to explore the welfare of Syrian refugees in Jordan and to review the aid that refugees receive and their participation in the economy.
The analysis shows how deprivation among Syrian refugees is elevated, more so for refugees living in host communities. This presents a puzzle because most refugees opt to live outside of the camps, even though they have the option to stay in camps. Why do people voluntarily expose themselves to a higher risk of poverty? The volume finds an answer in the desire of refugees for freedom and autonomy.
"A Triple Win" then turns to humanitarian aid that is found important for reducing refugee poverty, but insufficient as poverty levels remain high. After considering the scope for efficiency gains, the conclusion is that at current levels of aid it will not be possible to lift all Syrian refugees out of poverty unless another solution is found.
Increasing the financial autonomy of refugees provides the needed solution. Syrian refugees already access Jordan’s labor market, but their access is constrained. Those who work tend to labor in less remunerative jobs, often in the informal sector. Despite this, the incomes earned by refugees exceed aid by a factor of two.
The analysis goes on to show that refugee economic participation already reduces the need for aid by US$850 million per year. This reduction could increase if labor market restrictions were eased. The savings that would be generated could then be repurposed. This approach defines the triple win: refugees gain financial autonomy, humanitarian aid is reserved for those most in need, and Jordan receives additional resources to invest in its economic development
Does Global Warming Worsen Poverty and Inequality? An Updated Review
No full textThis paper offers an updated and
comprehensive review of recent studies on the impact of
climate change, particularly global warming, on poverty and
inequality, paying special attention to data sources as well
as empirical methods. While studies consistently find
negative impacts of higher temperature on poverty across
different geographical regions, with higher vulnerability
especially in poorer Sub-Saharan Africa, there is
inconclusive evidence on climate change impacts on
inequality. Further analysis of a recently constructed
global database at the subnational unit level derived from
official national household income and consumption surveys
shows that temperature change has larger impacts in the
short term and more impacts on chronic poverty than
transient poverty. The results are robust to different model
specifications and measures of chronic poverty and are more
pronounced for poorer countries. The findings offer relevant
inputs into current efforts to fight climate change
Navigating Competition Policy Challenges
No full textCompetition increases productivity
boosting innovation and economic growth. Competition fosters
cost reductions, innovation and promotes productivity
growth. This paper reviews global and regional trends on
conglomeration in digital markets, especially through
mergers and acquisitions. In recent years, the landscape of
business consolidation has undergone a transformative shift,
driven by the convergence of digital innovation and
traditional commerce. This paper delves into the intriguing
trends surrounding conglomeration in both digital and
brick-and-mortar spheres, exploring their implications on a
regional and global scale. With diverse models intertwining
digital and traditional conglomerates, the strategies
employed for consolidation have showcased remarkable
diversity. However, at the forefront emerges the prominent
strategy of conglomerate mergers, which amalgamate distinct
business dimensions under a single corporate umbrella. Thus,
this study investigates the readiness of competition
authorities and sector-specific regulators to effectively
address the intricate challenges posed by such mergers. In
this context, policy reforms emerge as a focal point, aimed
at bolstering regulatory frameworks to foster fair
competition, innovation, and consumer protection in an era
of rapid conglomerate digitalization