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Harmful algal blooms and their effects in coastal seas of Northern Europe
No full textHarmful algal blooms (HAB) are recurrent phenomena in northern Europe along the coasts of the Baltic Sea, Kattegat-Skagerrak, eastern North Sea, Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea. These HABs have caused occasional massive losses for the aquaculture industry and have chronically affected socioeconomic interests in several ways. This status review gives an overview of historical HAB events and summarises reports to the Harmful Algae Event Database from 1986 to the end of year 2019 and observations made in long term monitoring programmes of potentially harmful phytoplankton and of phycotoxins in bivalve shellfish. Major HAB taxa causing fish mortalities in the region include blooms of the prymnesiophyte Chrysochromulina leadbeateri in northern Norway in 1991 and 2019, resulting in huge economic losses for fish farmers. A bloom of the prymesiophyte Prymnesium polylepis (syn. Chrysochromulina polylepis) in the Kattegat-Skagerrak in 1988 was ecosystem disruptive. Blooms of the prymnesiophyte Phaeocystis spp. have caused accumulations of foam on beaches in the southwestern North Sea and Wadden Sea coasts and shellfish mortality has been linked to their occurrence. Mortality of shellfish linked to HAB events has been observed in estuarine waters associated with influx of water from the southern North Sea. The first bloom of the dictyochophyte genus Pseudochattonella was observed in 1998, and since then such blooms have been observed in high cell densities in spring causing fish mortalities some years. Dinoflagellates, primarily Dinophysis spp., intermittently yield concentrations of Diarrhetic Shellfish Toxins (DST) in blue mussels, Mytilus edulis, above regulatory limits along the coasts of Norway, Denmark and the Swedish west coast. On average, DST levels in shellfish have decreased along the Swedish and Norwegian Skagerrak coasts since approximately 2006, coinciding with a decrease in the cell abundance of D. acuta. Among dinoflagellates, Alexandrium species are the major source of Paralytic Shellfish Toxins (PST) in the region. PST concentrations above regulatory levels were rare in the Skagerrak-Kattegat during the three decadal review period, but frequent and often abundant findings of Alexandrium resting cysts in surface sediments indicate a high potential risk for blooms. PST levels often above regulatory limits along the west coast of Norway are associated with A. catenella (ribotype Group 1) as the main toxin producer. Other Alexandrium species, such as A. ostenfeldii and A. minutum, are capable of producing PST among some populations but are usually not associated with PSP events in the region. The cell abundance of A. pseudogonyaulax, a producer of the ichthyotoxin goniodomin (GD), has increased in the Skagerrak-Kattegat since 2010, and may constitute an emerging threat. The dinoflagellate Azadinium spp. have been unequivocally linked to the presence of azaspiracid toxins (AZT) responsible for Azaspiracid Shellfish Poisoning (AZP) in northern Europe. These toxins were detected in bivalve shellfish at concentrations above regulatory limits for the first time in Norway in blue mussels in 2005 and in Sweden in blue mussels and oysters (Ostrea edulis and Crassostrea gigas) in 2018. Certain members of the diatom genus Pseudo-nitzschia produce the neurotoxin domoic acid and analogs known as Amnesic Shellfish Toxins (AST). Blooms of Pseudo-nitzschia were common in the North Sea and the Skagerrak-Kattegat, but levels of AST in bivalve shellfish were rarely above regulatory limits during the review period. Summer cyanobacteria blooms in the Baltic Sea are a concern mainly for tourism by causing massive fouling of bathing water and beaches. Some of the cyanobacteria produce toxins, e.g. Nodularia spumigena, producer of nodularin, which may be a human health problem and cause occasional dog mortalities. Coastal and shelf sea regions in northern Europe provide a key supply of seafood, socioeconomic well-being and ecosystem services. Increasing anthropogenic influence and climate change create environmental stressors causing shifts in the biogeography and intensity of HABs. Continued monitoring of HAB and phycotoxins and the operation of historical databases such as HAEDAT provide not only an ongoing status report but also provide a way to interpret causes and mechanisms of HABs
Modeling cyanobacteria life cycle dynamics and historical nitrogen fixation in the Baltic Proper
No full textStreamflow-based evaluation of climate model sub-selection methods (vol 163, pg 1267, 2020)
No full textPerceived global increase in algal blooms is attributable to intensified monitoring and emerging bloom impacts
No full textData-Driven System Dynamics Model for Simulating Water Quantity and Quality in Peri-Urban Streams
No full textThe Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19 : Initial Results From CovidMIP
No full textMany nations responded to the corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020-2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate
Natural variability is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea
No full textCoastal seas worldwide suffer from increasing human impact. One of the most severe environmental threats is excessive nutrient pollution from land, which causes oxygen depletion and harmful algal blooms. In 2018, the semi-enclosed Baltic Sea was determined to contain the largest hypoxic area among the world's coastal seas, with a size equal to the Republic of Ireland. In this study, ensemble modelling was used to investigate whether climate change will intensify hypoxia in the Baltic Sea and whether nutrient load abatement strategies would counteract this scenario. We analysed the largest ensemble of scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea currently available (including different boundary conditions) and estimated the magnitude of various sources of uncertainty. The results showed that natural variability was a larger source of uncertainty than previously considered. The earliest time and appropriate location to detect a trend above the background noise were estimated. A significant decrease in hypoxia can be achieved by further reductions in nutrient loads implemented in combination with existing measures. Natural variability makes future projections of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea uncertain, but nutrient load reductions can reduce its severity, shows a large range of future scenarios downscaled from an ensemble of Earth System models
Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model
No full textThe Arctic is warming 2 to 3 times faster than the global average, partly due to changes in short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) including aerosols. In order to study the effects of atmospheric aerosols in this warming, recent past (1990-2014) and future (2015-2050) simulations have been carried out using the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model to study the aerosol burdens and their radiative and climate impacts over the Arctic (> 60 degrees N), using anthropogenic emissions from the Eclipse V6b and the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) databases, while global annual mean greenhouse gas concentrations were prescribed and kept fixed in all simulations. Results showed that the simulations have underestimated observed surface aerosol levels, in particular black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO42-), by more than 50 %, with the smallest biases calculated for the atmosphere-only simulations, where winds are nudged to reanalysis data. CMIP6 simulations performed slightly better in reproducing the observed surface aerosol concentrations and climate parameters, compared to the Eclipse simulations. In addition, simulations where atmosphere and ocean are fully coupled had slightly smaller biases in aerosol levels compared to atmosphere-only simulations without nudging. Arctic BC, organic aerosol (OA), and SO(4)(2-)burdens decrease significantly in all simulations by 10 %-60% following the reductions of 7 %-78% in emission projections, with the Eclipse ensemble showing larger reductions in Arctic aerosol burdens compared to the CMIP6 ensemble. For the 2030-2050 period, the Eclipse ensemble simulated a radiative forcing due to aerosol-radiation interactions (RFARI) of -0.39 +/- 0.01Wm(-2), which is -0.08Wm(-2) larger than the 1990-2010 mean forcing (-0.32Wm(-2)), of which -0.24 +/- 0.01Wm(-2) was attributed to the anthropogenic aerosols. The CMIP6 ensemble simulated a RFARI of --0.35 to -0.40Wm(-2) for the same period, which is -0.01 to -0.06Wm(-2) larger than the 1990-2010 mean forcing of 0.35Wm(-2). The scenarios with little to no mitigation (worst-case scenarios) led to very small changes in the RFARI, while scenarios with medium to large emission mitigations led to increases in the negative RFARI, mainly due to the decrease in the positive BC forcing and the decrease in the negative SO42- forcing. The anthropogenic aerosols accounted for -0.24 to -0.26Wm(-2) of the net RFARI in 2030-2050 period, in Eclipse and CMIP6 ensembles, respectively. Finally, all simulations showed an increase in the Arctic surface air temperatures throughout the simulation period. By 2050, surface air temperatures are projected to increase by 2.4 to 2.6 degrees C in the Eclipse ensemble and 1.9 to 2.6 degrees C in the CMIP6 ensemble, compared to the 1990-2010 mean. Overall, results show that even the scenarios with largest emission reductions leads to similar impact on the future Arctic surface air temperatures and sea-ice extent compared to scenarios with smaller emission reductions, implying reductions of greenhouse emissions are still necessary to mitigate climate change
Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3
No full textA substantial part of Arctic climate predictability at interannual timescales stems from the knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions. Among all sea ice properties, its volume, which is a product of sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT), is the most responsive parameter to climate change. However, the majority of climate prediction systems are only assimilating the observed SIC due to lack of long-term reliable global observation of SIT. In this study, the EC-Earth3 Climate Prediction System with anomaly initialization to ocean, SIC and SIT states is developed. In order to evaluate the regional benefits of specific initialized variables, three sets of retrospective ensemble prediction experiments are performed with different initialization strategies: ocean only; ocean plus SIC; and ocean plus SIC and SIT initialization. In the Atlantic Arctic, the Greenland-Iceland-Norway (GIN) and Barents seas are the two most skilful regions in SIC prediction for up to 5-6 lead years with ocean initialization; there are re-emerging skills for SIC in the Barents and Kara seas in lead years 7-9 coinciding with improved skills of sea surface temperature (SST), reflecting the impact of SIC initialization on ocean-atmosphere interactions for interannual-to-decadal timescales. For the year 2-9 average, the region with significant skill for SIT is confined to the central Arctic Ocean, covered by multi-year sea ice (CAO-MYI). Winter preconditioning with SIT initialization increases the skill for September SIC in the eastern Arctic (e.g. Kara, Laptev and East Siberian seas) and in turn improve the skill of air surface temperature locally and further expanded over land. SIT initialization outperforms the other initialization methods in improving SIT prediction in the Pacific Arctic (e.g. East Siberian and Beaufort seas) in the first few lead years. Our results suggest that as the climate warming continues and the central Arctic Ocean might become seasonal ice free in the future, the controlling mechanism for decadal predictability may thus shift from sea ice volume to ocean-driven processes