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The Swedish National Marine Monitoring Programme 2020 : Hydrography, Nutrients, Phytoplankton
No full textDespite a year of pandemic, the environmental monitoring in the pelagic could be done largely as planned in 2020. It was the warmest year on land since national statistics started in 1860. This was also shown in the sea where especially the surface temperature in winter was higher than usual. In the Baltic Sea, the lowest winter temperature was two degrees above normal and the maximum distribution of sea ice was the lowest ever measured. The autumn was also warm and in November the surface water in the Baltic Sea was about 1 degree warmer than normal.In the Kattegat, there were signs of the spring bloom in February with high chlorophyll levels and high species diversity. In March, the nutrients were largely depleted in the surface water and the spring bloom of diatoms was over for this time. At one occasion, in April, toxins were reported in mussels along the West Coast that exceeded the warning limit. In the Skagerrak, the spring bloom started a little later than in the Kattegat, and in the Baltic Sea even later. In April, the spring bloom was observed in the Western Gotland Basin with high chlorophyll concentrations and typical dinoflagellates species for the season. In the Gulf of Bothnia, there was an early spring bloom of diatoms in April. This early bloom may have been an effect of the mild winter. The bloom of cyanobacteria in the Baltic Sea started already in May when cyanobacteria were observed at several stations. In August, cyanobacteria were also observed along the West Coast. These had probably been transported out with water from the Baltic Sea. A late bloom of the microzooplankton Noctiluca scintillans was observed at several sites along the West Coast in December. N. scintillans turns the water red during blooms and when it is dark, its fluorescence causes beautiful bioluminescence.Throughout the year high levels of silicate were observed in the Baltic Sea and low levels of DIN in the surface waters of the Gulf of Bothnia. Otherwise, the levels of nutrients did not deviate much from normal.In the bottom water of the Baltic Sea, no direct improvement of the oxygen situation was seen. In December 2019, there was a small inflow to the Baltic Sea that temporarily raised oxygen levels in the southern and south-eastern parts at the beginning of 2020. But this increase in oxygen was consumed quickly. In the East Gotland Basin, there was an acute lack of oxygen from 80 m and hydrogen sulphide was measured from depths exceeding 125 m. In the Western Gotland Basin, acute oxygen deficiency was found from 70 m and completely oxygen-free conditions from 80 m. An effect of stagnation in the deep basin parts is, in addition to increased levels of hydrogen sulphide, also increased levels of ammonium. Ammonium levels in the deep water increase in both the Eastern and Western Gotland Basins. The highest concentration of ammonia was observed in the eastern parts, but in the western parts they were above normal levels and closer to the levels in the eastern parts than they have been before. In the Kattegat, oxygen concentrations just above the limit for acute oxygen deficiency were found at some stations during August-October.Trots ett år med pandemi så kunde miljöövervakningen i pelagialen göras i stort sett som planerat under 2020. Det blev det varmaste året på land sedan nationell statistik startade 1860. Detta visade sig även i havet där i synnerhet yttemperaturen vintertid var högre än normalt. I Östersjön blev den lägsta vintertemperaturen två grader över det normala och den maximala utbredningen av havsis var den lägsta som någonsin uppmätts. Även hösten var varm och i november var ytvattnet i Östersjön ca 1 grad varmare än normalt.I februari observerades de första tecknen på att vårblomningen hade startat i Kattegatt, med höga klorofyllhalter och hög artdiversitet. I mars var näringsämnena i stort sett slut i ytvattnet och vårblomningen av kiselalger var över för denna gång. Vid ett tillfälle, i april, rapporterades gifter i musslor längs Västkusten som översteg varningsgränsen. I Skagerrak startade vårblomningen aningen senare än i Kattegatt och i Östersjön ännu något senare. I april observerades vårblomningen i västra Gotlandsbassängen med hög klorofyllkoncentration och för våren typiska dinoflagellater. I Bottenviken var det en tidig vårblomning av kiselalger i april. Denna tidiga blomning kan ha varit en effekt av den milda vintern. En början på blomningen av cyanobakterier i Östersjön startade redan i maj då cyanobakterier observerades vid flera stationer. I augusti observerades ytansamlingar av cyanobakterier även längs Västkusten, vilka hade transporterats ut med vatten från Östersjön. En sen blomning av microzooplanktonet Noctiluca scintillans observerades vid flera platser längs Västkusten i december. N. scintillans färgar vattnet rött när den massförekommer och när det är mörkt orsakar dess fluorescens vacker mareld.Generellt så var det under året höga halter av kisel i Östersjöns och låga halter av DIN i Bottniska Vikens ytvatten. I övrigt avvek inte halterna av näringsämnen från det normala.I Östersjöns bottenvatten syntes ingen direkt förbättring av syresituationen. I december 2019 skedde ett mindre inflöde till Östersjön som höjde syrenivåerna tillfälligt i de södra och sydöstra delarna i början av året. Men denna syreökning konsumerades snabbt. I Östra Gotlandsbassängen var det akut syrebrist från 80 m och svavelväte uppmättes från 125m. I Västra Gotlandsbassängen var det akut syrebrist från 70 m och helt syrefritt från 80 m. En effekt av stagnation i de djupa bassängdelarna är förutom ökade halter av svavelväte även ökade halter av ammonium. Ammoniumhalterna ökar i både Östra- och Västra Gotlandsbassängerna. Högst koncentration återfanns i de östra delarna men i de västra delarna är de över det normala och närmre de högsta koncentrationerna i de östra delarna än vad de varit tidigare. I Kattegatts bottenvatten var syrenivåerna som lägst under augusti-oktober då det vid några stationer var strax över gränsen för akut syrebrist
Near-Source Risk Functions for Particulate Matter Are Critical When Assessing the Health Benefits of Local Abatement Strategies
No full textWhen mortality or other health outcomes attributable to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are estimated, the same exposure-response function (ERF) is usually assumed regardless of the source and composition of the particles, and independently of the spatial resolution applied in the exposure model. While several recent publications indicate that ERFs based on exposure models resolving within-city gradients are steeper per concentration unit (mu gm(-3)), the ERF for PM2.5 recommended by the World Health Organization does not reflect this observation and is heavily influenced by studies based on between-city exposure estimates. We evaluated the potential health benefits of three air pollution abatement strategies: electrification of light vehicles, reduced use of studded tires, and introduction of congestion charges in Stockholm and Gothenburg, using different ERFs. We demonstrated that using a single ERF for PM2.5 likely results in an underestimation of the effect of local measures and may be misleading when evaluating abatement strategies. We also suggest applying ERFs that distinguish between near-source and regional contributions of exposure to PM2.5. If separate ERFs are applied for near-source and regional PM2.5, congestion charges as well as a reduction of studded tire use are estimated to be associated with a significant reduction in the mortality burden in both Gothenburg and Stockholm. In some scenarios the number of premature deaths is more than 10 times higher using separate ERFs in comparison to using a single ERF irrespective of sources as recommended by the WHO. For electrification, the net change in attributable deaths is small or within the uncertainty range depending on the choice of ERF
Summer afternoon precipitation associated with wind convergence near the Himalayan glacier fronts
No full textLittle is known about the effects of glacier-air interactions on the Himalayan glacier mass balance. Until this knowledge gap is filled, a reliable projection of the future changes in the Himalayan glaciers is hardly possible. Here, we describe the drying effect of the katabatic winds on the up-valley summer monsoon flows by creating favorable conditions for local convergence-induced precipitation to occur near the glacier fronts. We postulate that this retarding effect on the up-valley monsoon flows results in a negative feedback mechanism mediated by glacier-air interactions, in which glacial retreat pushes precipitation upwards as the down-valley katabatic winds weaken, resulting in greater local precipitation and enhanced snow accumulation across the upper parts of the Himalayan glaciers. Our analyses are based on the exclusive data recorded in the Khumbu valley and the Langtang valley in the Nepalese Himalayas. These data revealed higher afternoon precipitation in summer associated with surface wind convergence near the glacier fronts and a sharp decrease in the temperature lapse rate over the glacier surfaces. The principle of the observed phenomena was proven by our high-resolution modeling sensitive experiment, which involved two simulations, one with the present glaciers and the other without. This numerical experiment also supports the proposed negative feedback. Furthermore, we report a low deuterium excess near the glacier fronts, indicating below-cloud re-evaporation facilitated by the local convergence induced by the dry katabatic winds. Our study suggests that current models may overestimate the retreat of Himalayan glaciers because they have completely ignored the glacier-air interactions
Probabilistic Forecasting of Wind Turbine Icing Related Production Losses Using Quantile Regression Forests
No full textPlanning Climate Actions in Vulnerable Countries
No full textThe next generation of climate services needs not only tailoring to specific user needs but to provide, in addition, access to key information in a usable way that satisfies the needs of different users’ profiles; especially web-based services. Here, we present the outcomes from developing such a new interactive prototype. The service provides data for robust climate analysis to underpin decision-making when planning measures to compensate for climate impact. The goal is to facilitate the communication on climate information between climate modelling communities and adaptation or mitigation initiatives from vulnerable countries that are applying for funds from the Green Climate Fund (GCF). A participatory process was ensured during four workshops in four pilot countries, with an audience of national and international experts. During this process it was made clear that in all countries there is a strong need for knowledge in climate science, while in most countries there was also an increasing need of capacity in hydrological modelling and water management. The active interaction during the workshops was found necessary to facilitate the dialogue between service developers and users. Understanding the users, transparency on potentials and limitations of climate services together with capacity development in climate science and methods were required components in the development of the service
Myndigheters arbete med klimatanpassning 2020
No full textAnalys av myndigheternas arbete med klimatanpassning Förordning (2018:1428) om myndigheters klimatanpassningsarbete (Klimatanpassningsförordningen) fastställer att 32 nationella myndigheter och samtliga 21 länsstyrelser, inom sina ansvarsområden och inom ramen för sina uppdrag, ska initiera, stödja och utvärdera arbetet med klimatanpassning. Förordningen ålägger myndigheterna att årligen redovisa sitt arbete med klimatanpassning, på det sätt som Sveriges meteorologiska och hydrologiska institut (SMHI) bestämmer. SMHI ska lämna en sammanfattad analys till regeringen den 15 april varje år. Denna rapport utgör SMHIs sammanfattade analys av klimatanpassningsarbetet under år 2020. Myndigheterna har redovisat i SMHIs webbverktyg Klira, som utvecklats speciellt för ändamålet. I Klira kopplar myndigheterna risker och möjligheter som de identifierat och prioriterat i sina klimat- och sårbarhetsanalyser, sina myndighetsmål och åtgärder till föridentifierade risker och möjligheter. De föridentifierade riskerna och möjligheterna utgår från de sju prioriterade utmaningar som regeringen presenterat i den nationella strategin för klimatanpassning. Syftet med denna analys är att besvara följande frågor: • Hur har myndigheterna arbetat med de uppdrag som anges i Klimatanpassningsförordningen? • Vilka risker och möjligheter har myndigheterna identifierat och prioriterat? • Vilka åtgärder har myndigheterna identifierat och genomfört? • Vilka hinder och behov har myndigheterna identifierat i sitt arbete medklimatanpassning? Slutsatser av analysen Myndigheterna har gjort framsteg i sitt klimatanpassningsarbete. De flesta har klimat- och sårbarhetsanalyser, myndighetsmål och handlingsplaner och antalet myndigheter som utfört förordningsuppdragen har ökat jämfört med 2019. Arbetssätten för genomförande av handlingsplanerna innebär i de flesta fall att klimatanpassningsarbetet är integrerat i ordinarie verksamhet via myndigheternas verksamhetsplanering, budgetprocess och uppföljningssystem. Många myndigheter anser, liksom de gjorde 2019, att risker som rör den prioriterade utmaningen Översvämningar som hotar samhällen infrastruktur och företag är viktiga inom deras ansvarsområden. Flera myndigheter har analysarbete kvar för att bryta ner risker och möjligheter till en nivå som gör det möjligt att identifiera effektiva anpassningsåtgärder och myndighetsåtgärder. Flera myndigheter anger också många risker som viktigast, vilket indikerar att de inte prioriterat mellan riskerna. Myndigheterna ombeds redovisa både åtgärder som de bedömer behövs i samhället eller sektorn för att möta de risker och möjligheter som de anser är särskilt viktiga (anpassningsåtgärder) och de aktiviteter som myndigheten själv har för avsikt att genomföra i närtid och inom sin rådighet (myndighetsåtgärder). Den prioriterade utmaning för vilken flest anpassningsåtgärder och myndighetsåtgärder redovisats är Översvämningar som hotar samhällen, infrastruktur och företag. Enligt myndigheternas redovisningar vidtas myndighetsåtgärder mot alla föridentifierade risker och möjligheter. Detta beror delvis på att många myndighetsåtgärder är breda och anges möta flera olika föridentifierade risker och möjligheter. Vidare är de myndighetsåtgärder som redovisas inte alltid konkreta och avgränsade, vilket innebär att det blir svårare för myndigheterna att identifiera samverkansmöjligheter. Myndigheterna identifierar liknande hinder för sitt arbete med klimatanpassning som de gjorde 2019. Flest upplever hinder i form av bristande ekonomiska och/eller personellaresurser, både för den egna myndigheten och för andra aktörer inom myndighetensansvarsområde. Även bristande kunskapsunderlag lyfts som ett hinder av många myndigheter, bland annat efterfrågas geologisk information och klimatinformation. Vidare anses ansvarsfördelning mellan myndigheter, kommuner och verksamhetsutövare vara otydlig, och flera myndigheter anger att det finns hinder för klimatanpassningsarbetet i befintlig lagstiftning. Vissa myndigheter efterfrågar mer stöd i arbetet med Klimatanpassningsförordningen, bland annat förbättrat metodstöd kring hur en regional klimat- och sårbarhetsanalys kan genomföras. För många myndigheter framgår det inte av redovisningarna att de arbetar strukturerat med klimatanpassning i hela kedjan, från identifiering av risker och möjligheter till genomförande av myndighetsåtgärder. Det är svårt att utifrån myndigheternas redovisningar dra några slutsatser om vilka risker som kan anses vara hanterade genom de myndighetsåtgärder myndigheterna har genomfört eller planerar att genomföra. Vissa myndigheter skriver om värden som kommer att gå förlorade i ett förändrat klimat. En iakttagelse som SMHI gjort är att få myndigheter beskriver transformativa åtgärder, i form av genomgripande förändringar i samhället. Myndigheterna ser risker för negativ påverkan på den egna sektorn som en effekt av klimatanpassningsarbete inom andra sektorer. Samtidigt anser myndigheterna att klimatanpassningsarbetet har potential att bidra till uppfyllelsen av flera andra nationella och internationella mål. Flera myndigheter ser behov av ökad samverkan. SMHIs rekommendationer för det fortsatta arbetet • SMHI bör fortsätta sitt arbete med att underlätta myndigheternas implementering av Klimatanpassningsförordningen samt erbjuda fora för erfarenhetsbyte kring förordningsarbetet. I detta arbete bör särskilt fokus läggas på att: - identifiera bestämmelser i lagar och andra författningar som påverkar myndigheternas arbete med klimatanpassning. - ta hänsyn till klimatanpassning i upphandlingar. - tillsammans med länsstyrelserna identifiera regionala sektorsmyndigheter och vad uppdraget i förordningen gentemot dessa innebär. - tillsammans med länsstyrelserna identifiera hur metoden för klimat- och sårbarhetsanalys kan anpassas för att stödja länsstyrelserna i attgenomföra regionala analyser. • SMHI bör fortsätta utvecklingen av redovisningssystemet Klira, i syfte att underlätta myndigheternas redovisningar och få in den information som behövs för analys och samverkan. • SMHI bör erbjuda fora för samverkan mellan myndigheter som ligger nära varandra ämnesmässigt för att myndigheterna ska få möjlighet att diskutera risker och möjligheter med ett förändrat klimat inom deras ansvarsområden. • SMHI och andra myndigheter bör bidra till ökad samverkan mellan olika aktörer i samhället, till exempel genom arbetsgrupper inom Myndighetsnätverket för klimatanpassning. • SMHI bör erbjuda fora för diskussioner om klimatanpassning i ett långsiktigt helhetsperspektiv utifrån behov av transformation, värden som inte kan räddas samt synergier och intressekonflikter. • Regeringen bör se över möjligheterna att skapa mer långsiktig och öronmärkt finansiering för arbete med klimatanpassning. • Regeringen bör säkerställa att tillräckligt med resurser tilldelas så att ansvariga nationella myndigheter kan ta fram den geologiska information och den klimatinformation som förordningsmyndigheterna behöver för klimatanpassningsarbetet.A Government decree on Swedish authorities’ work on adaptation to climate establishes that 32 national authorities and all 21 County Administrative Boards shall, within their areas of responsibility and within their missions, initiate, support and monitor adaptation to climate change. The decree also establishes that the authorities shall report their work annually to SMHI. The reporting is done by the authorities in a web-based system, developed specifically by SMHI for this purpose. SMHI shall support the authorities in their work, and prepare an analysis of the reporting to the Government by the 15th of April every year. This report constitutes SMHI’s analysis of the work carried out in 2020. The purpose of the analysis is to establish to what degree the authorities covered by the degree have completed the tasks that it entails. We also want to find out what risks, opportunities and measures have been identified, as well as the obstacles and needs for future development. The analysis shows that the authorities have made progress in their adaptation work. Most have climate and vulnerability analyses in place, as well as targets for their work and action plans. Overall, the decree is being implemented to a greater extent compared to 2019. In many cases, adaptation work is integrated into the ordinary business of the authority. As in 2019, many authorities consider risks connected to flooding to be important within their areas of responsibility, and this is also the area where most actions are carried out or planned. Many authorities still need to carry out additional analytical work to specify risks and opportunities further, in order to identify effective adaptation actions. The authorities were also asked to identify obstacles to their adaptation work. These differ little from those reported in 2019 and include lack of resources (economic and personnel), a lack of information on climate change and geology, and unclear division of responsibility between for example authorities and municipalities. The current legislation is also identified as containing obstacles, and some authorities request more support in implementing the decree on adaptation. Many authorities do not provide a clear picture of a structured way of working with adaptation throughout the process, and few describe transformative actions. Adaptation is seen as having the potential to contribute to several other national and international targets, and a need for increased cooperation is identified. It is recommended that SMHI should continue to offer support for the implantation of the decree on adaptation as well as arenas for cooperation and knowledge exchange. SMHI should also continuously develop the reporting system, so that the reporting is facilitated and the information required for knowledge exchange is collected. It is also recommended that the Government should consider more long-term and dedicated funding for adaptation, and that sufficient resources are allocated to develop the climate and geology information required for adaptation work
HydroGFD3.0 (Hydrological Global Forcing Data) : a 25 km global precipitation and temperature data set updated in near-real time
No full textHydroGFD3 (Hydrological Global Forcing Data) is a data set of bias-adjusted reanalysis data for daily precipitation and minimum, mean, and maximum temperature. It is mainly intended for large-scale hydrological modelling but is also suitable for other impact modelling. The data set has an almost global land area coverage, excluding the Antarctic continent and small islands, at a horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees, i.e. about 25 km. It is available for the complete ERA5 reanalysis time period, currently 1979 until 5 d ago. This period will be extended back to 1950 once the back catalogue of ERA5 is available. The historical period is adjusted using global gridded observational data sets, and to acquire real-time data, a collection of several reference data sets is used. Consistency in time is attempted by relying on a background climatology and only making use of anomalies from the different data sets. Precipitation is adjusted for mean bias as well as the number of wet days in a month. The latter is relying on a calibrated statistical method with input only of the monthly precipitation anomaly such that no additional input data about the number of wet days are necessary. The daily mean temperature is adjusted toward the monthly mean of the observations and applied to 1 h time steps of the ERA5 reanalysis. Daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature are then calculated. The performance of the HydroGFD3 data set is on par with other similar products, although there are significant differences in different parts of the globe, especially where observations are uncertain. Further, HydroGFD3 tends to have higher precipitation extremes, partly due to its higher spatial resolution. In this paper, we present the methodology, evaluation results, and how to access the data set at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3871707 (Berg et al., 2020)
Terrestrial dissolved organic matter inflow drives temporal dynamics of the bacterial community of a subarctic estuary (northern Baltic Sea)
No full textClimate change is projected to cause increased inflow of terrestrial dissolved organic matter to coastal areas in northerly regions. Estuarine bacterial community will thereby receive larger loads of organic matter and inorganic nutrients available for microbial metabolism. The composition of the bacterial community and its ecological functions may thus be affected. We studied the responses of bacterial community to inflow of terrestrial dissolved organic matter in a subarctic estuary in the northern Baltic Sea, using a 16S rRNA gene metabarcoding approach. Betaproteobacteria dominated during the spring river flush, constituting similar to 60% of the bacterial community. Bacterial diversity increased as the runoff decreased during summer, when Verrucomicrobia, Betaproteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Gammaproteobacteria and Planctomycetes dominated the community. Network analysis revealed that a larger number of associations between bacterial populations occurred during the summer than in spring. Betaproteobacteria and Bacteroidetes populations appeared to display similar correlations to environmental factors. In spring, freshly discharged organic matter favoured specialists, while in summer a mix of autochthonous and terrestrial organic matter promoted the development of generalists. Our study indicates that increased inflows of terrestrial organic matter-loaded freshwater to coastal areas would promote specialist bacteria, which in turn might enhance the transformation of terrestrial organic matter in estuarine environments
Estimating lockdown-induced European NO2 changes using satellite and surface observations and air quality models
No full textThis study provides a comprehensive assessment of NO2 changes across the main European urban areas induced by COVID-19 lockdowns using satellite retrievals from the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Sentinel-5p satellite, surface site measurements, and simulations from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) regional ensemble of air quality models. Some recent TROPOMI-based estimates of changes in atmospheric NO2 concentrations have neglected the influence of weather variability between the reference and lockdown periods. Here we provide weather-normalized estimates based on a machine learning method (gradient boosting) along with an assessment of the biases that can be expected from methods that omit the influence of weather. We also compare the weather-normalized satellite-estimated NO2 column changes with weather-normalized surface NO2 concentration changes and the CAMS regional ensemble, composed of 11 models, using recently published estimates of emission reductions induced by the lockdown. All estimates show similar NO2 reductions. Locations where the lockdown measures were stricter show stronger reductions, and, conversely, locations where softer measures were implemented show milder reductions in NO2 pollution levels. Average reduction estimates based on either satellite observations (-23 %), surface stations (-43 %), or models (-32 %) are presented, showing the importance of vertical sampling but also the horizontal representativeness. Surface station estimates are significantly changed when sampled to the TROPOMI overpasses (-37 %), pointing out the importance of the variability in time of such estimates. Observation-based machine learning estimates show a stronger temporal variability than model-based estimates