Universidade Nova de Lisboa

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    Commodity-price shocks and macroeconomic dynamics: evidence from selected countries

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    This work project aims to examines how price shocks to commodities’ prices propagate to selected macroeconomic variables in Italy, South Africa, and the United States. We do so by firstly computing a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on commodities divided by sector. Afterwards we deploy a factor-augmented SVAR framework which captures country-specific dynamics. Impulse–response analysis shows that energy shocks dominate real-sector effects, especially in the net-importing economies, whereas food shocks chiefly influence inflation. Exchange-rate regimes modulate the transmission: dollar strength insulates the United States; South Africa’s depreciation amplifies pass-through while Italy's lack of autonomous monetary policy exacerbates the impact of the shocks

    The impact of government-led monetary incentives on share buybacks: evidence from China’s 2024 reform

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    Share buyback is the behavior of publicly traded companies that use their own or self-financed funds to purchase company shares on the stock market. Listed companies tend to adopt this strategy when they are undervalued and is usually used to enhance investor confidence. This study analyzes the impact that the Chinese government-led reform has on share buybacks of companies listed on the Shanghai (SSE) and Shenzhen (SZE) Stock Exchanges. It assesses how the market responded to the policy and whether it perceived the buybacks as value-driven or as a response to favorable policy conditions, introduced to support the buyback mechanism

    Crisis-proofing real estate: ESG and downside risk resilience in European market shocks. Measuring impact for 'BPI impacto clima' funds

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    This thesis examines whether stronger ESG performance strengthened downside resilience in European listed real‐estate firms during two severe shocks, namely the Q1 2020’s COVID‐19 sell‐off and Q3 2022’s energy crisis. Leveraging Refinitiv ESG scores, daily price and volume data, and quarterly financials for 16 firms across varied regulatory stringency, we calculate maximum drawdown, realized volatility, and Sharpe ratios. Cross‐sectional and fixed‐effects regressions reveal no significant ESG impact on drawdown or volatility and a marginal negative crisis‐period Sharpe effect. These findings imply that ESG alone does not ensure crisis resilience, highlighting the need to integrate sustainability metrics with traditional risk‐ management tools

    Case study of behavioural governance wells fargo bank scandle

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    This study explores the behavioral governance failures at Wells Fargo that led to widespread unethical practices and subsequent penalties. By analyzing financial data and public records, this directed research investigates the mechanisms by which corporate governance failed to prevent misconduct. Through a detailed examination of Wells Fargo's policies, employee incentives, and regulatory responses, this study aims to highlight systemic risks in banking risk management practices and propose strategies to prevent similar occurrences in the future

    Gen ai in banking: potential impact and customer acceptance

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    This paper investigates the use of GenAI in retail banking, focusing on its potential impact on customer intimacy. By incorporating an extensive literature review, this study offers an in-depth assessment of GenAI's capabilities and its anticipated influence on banking relationships. Additionally, it addresses significant challenges such as data security, inherent biases, and transparency. Survey results reveal a polarized opinion regarding GenAI in banking; however, the majority suggests that improved data security could enhance trust. The analysis concludes with recommendations for banks to foster a secure and client focused integration of GenAI. Therefore, the paper contributes valuable insights into the transformative potential of GenAI in banking, serving as a critical resource for both scholars and practitioners

    From views to likes: analyzing engagement drivers on tik tok for skincare brand accounts

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    The growing relevance of younger consumers for the skincare market has led to an increased importance of brand social media presence on platforms such as TikTok. However, the factors that drive engagement on TikTok for skincare brand accounts are not widely researched. This study tests the effects of different types of post characteristics and content characteristics on engagement rates through linear regressions. The results indicate that video length and influencer inclusion have a negative effect on engagement rates. These findings can guide skincare brands to optimize their content strategies to improve engagement rates

    Civic engagement in international public policy-making

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    This study examines the challenges faced by non-governmental organisations (NGO) in engagement processes provided by international organisations for participation in their public policy-making, using the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a case study. Through qualitative research, specifically semi-structured interviews with experts from environmental NGOs the research identifies key issues violating the principles inclusiveness, transparency, deliberativeness, and empowerment. Findings reveal challenges in each part of the engagement process, often practical but with a huge overall impact. Recommendations proposed include comprehensive NGO support systems, facilitating meaningful engagement in events, enhanced coordination and digitalisation, and capacity building and financial support

    Harnessing ai for impact: identifying primary ai application domains and overcoming challenges to enhance data-driven decision-making in ngoss

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    This research investigates the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) within non governmental organizations (NGOs) to enhance data-driven decision-making. It identifies key operational domains within NGOs—fundraising, project implementation, and impact tracking—where AI can be leveraged, and explores the barriers preventing widespread adoption. Despite AI's potential to improve efficiency and accountability, NGOs face challenges such as resource constraints, data limitations, organizational receptiveness, and context-sensitive risks. Through an interpretivist methodology, this study derives insights from AI experts, NGO representatives and stakeholders, providing high-level recommendations for AI adoption, emphasizing the need for a holistic implementation approach to achieve greater impact

    How can business intelligence help a company make decisions more efficiently

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    Business Intelligence is crucial for a company to achieve a more efficient decision-making process. However, since its operations started, HumanIT has had no visual access to its information or established KPIs from where the employees should focus their work. The project developed to counteract this phenomenon was a Power BI dashboard built jointly with end-user feedback during a pilot project. It allows the team to understand better the company’s trend over time, their gain and pain points, and how to move forward with their decisions

    Forecasting cost-per-click of keywords in Google’s competitive paid search advertising market: a time-series clustering approach

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    Accurately forecasting Cost-per-Click of paid search advertising is essential for performance marketers to allocate budgets that optimize marketing campaign returns. In this study, we perform a comprehensive analysis using various time-series forecasting methods to predict daily average CPC of keywords in the car rental sector. Our results show the power of statistical models on noisy keyword-level CPC time-series on short to medium horizons, only being outperformed by more complex neural networks on longer horizons. Advanced forecasting approaches leveraging competition did not yield significant accuracy improvements. Additional experiments with fine tuned foundational models for time-series showed promising results, optimizing practicality and accuracy

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