921 research outputs found
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Military expenditure, economic growth and structural instability: A case study of South Africa
No full textThis paper contributes to the growing literature on the milex-growth nexus, by providing a case study of South Africa and considering the possibility of structural breaks by applying newly developed econometric methods. Using full sample bootstrap Granger non-causality tests, no Granger causal link is found between military expenditure and GDP for 1951–2010, but parameter instability tests show the estimated VARs to be unstable. Using a bootstrap rolling window estimation procedure, however, finds evidence of bidirectional Granger causality in various subsamples. This implies standard Granger non-causality tests, which neither account for structural breaks nor time variation may be invalid
Are the tobacco industry’s claims about illicit trade credible?
No full textBackground The tobacco industry claims that illicit cigarette trade in South Africa is high and rising. This is often used as an argument not to increase the tobacco excise tax.
Objectives To determine how the industry’s estimates of the size of the illicit market have changed over time.
Methods Published media articles on illicit trade were obtained from South African Press Cuttings, and published and unpublished articles and statements were sourced from the internet.
Results 419 relevant articles and media statements were found. Of these, 80 emphasised the industry’s perspective, 40 emanated primarily from the tobacco control community, and 299 reported on action taken against illicit activity.
For each for the years between 2006 and early 2011, the Tobacco Institute of Southern Africa reported that South Africa’s illicit market share was 20%, increasing to 25% in late 2011 and to 30% in 2012. In a 2012 presentation to Treasury the illicit market share in 2008 was shown as 7.9%, compared to claims in 2008 that the illicit market share was 20%. There was a large spike in reported seizures of illicit cigarettes in 2010 and 2011, but a 60% decrease in 2012.
Conclusions The tobacco industry has adjusted previous estimates of the illicit trade share downwards in order to create the impression that illicit trade is high and rising. If previous estimates by the tobacco industry were incorrect by their own admission, the credibility of current estimates should be questioned, especially by government officials.We would like to acknowledge the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, through the American Cancer
Society, for funding this research.
Economics of Tobacco Control Project, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, School of
Economics, University of Cape Town, South Afric
Enforcement and compliance: The case of minimum wages and mandatory contracts for domestic workers in South Africa
No full textWhat happens when a previously unregulated labour market is regulated? After the introduction of minimum wages and mandatory employment contracts for domestic workers, wages increased markedly while neither employment nor hours worked declined; some formalisation of working conditions also occurred. All these occurred despite a lack of monitoring and enforcement, suggesting that such actions (often costly) are not essential for regulation to have a significant impact on informal employment conditions, at least in the short run.This was released as an Econ3x3 Brief in April 2014. It is available here: http://www.econ3x3.org/article/enforcement-and-compliance-case-minimum-wages-and-mandatory-contracts-domestic-workers
Mortality in South Africa: Socio-economic profile and association with self-reported health
No full textThis paper exploits the first two waves of the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) to describe the socio-economic profile of mortality and to assess whether self-rated health status is predictive of mortality between waves. Mortality rates in NIDS are in line with estimates from official death notification data and display the expected hump of excess mortality in early and middle adulthood due to AIDS, with the excess peaking earlier for women than for men. We find evidence of a socio-economic gradient in mortality, with higher rates of mortality for individuals from asset-poor households and with lower levels of education. Consistent with evidence from many industrialised countries and a few developing countries, we find self-rated health to be a significant predictor of two-year mortality, an association that remains after controlling for socio-economic status and several other subjective and objective measures of health
Intergenerational earnings mobility and equality of opportunity in South Africa
No full textThe paper estimates the degree of intergenerational earnings persistence in South Africa. It explores the link between this measure of social mobility and an index of inequality of opportunity. Using microdata from the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS), the paper finds that intergenerational earnings mobility in South Africa is low. In addition, a limited set of inherited circumstances explains a significant fraction of earnings inequality among male adults. Adding South Africa to the existing international literature supports the hypothesis that low levels of intergenerational mobility and equality of opportunity are emblematic of high-inequality emerging economies
Reweighting South African national household survey data to create a consistent series over time: A cross-entropy approach
No full textIn the absence of established longitudinal panel surveys in South Africa, national cross-sectional household survey data are frequently used to analyse change. When these data are stacked side by side, however, inconsistencies both in time trends and between household- and person-level data are found. This study uses a new set of weights calibrated to the Actuarial Society of South Africa 2003 model projected totals using a cross-entropy estimation approach. These weights are favoured because they produce consistent demographic and geographic trends. The calculated weights are similar to the initial sample weights (and hence retain the survey design benefits) but match to a series of age-sex-race and province marginal totals that are consistent over time. The weights are publicly available for the 14-year period between 1994 and 2007
More financial aid is not the best way to close the racial gap in tertiary education
No full textSouth Africa’s large racial gap in enrolment in tertiary education can be attributed to the
widely varying quality of primary and secondary education rather than to the low incomes of
most black and coloured households. Thus, easing credit constraints for prospective tertiary
students via increased financial aid is expected to have a limited impact on African and
coloured enrolment. Instead, policymakers should focus on improving educational quality at
schools attended by children from low-income households
Are the tobacco industry’s claims about the size of the illicit cigarette market credible? The case of South Africa
No full textBackground
The tobacco industry claims that illicit cigarette trade in South Africa is high and rising. This is often used as an argument not to increase the tobacco excise tax or to regulate tobacco products.
Objectives
To determine how the tobacco industry's estimates of the size of the illicit cigarette market have changed over time.
Methods
Published media articles were obtained from South African Press Cuttings; published articles and press releases were sourced from the internet. The period of interest is 1990–2012.
Results
Between 1990 and 2012 we found 90 newspaper articles and press statements that emphasised the tobacco industry's view on illicit trade. Articles that reported on action taken against illicit trade were excluded.
Between 2006 and early 2011 the Tobacco Institute of Southern Africa, a body representing the interests of large cigarette companies, reported that South Africa's illicit cigarette market share was 20%. This share increased to 25% in late 2011 and 30% in 2012. In a 2012 presentation by Tobacco Institute of Southern Africa to National Treasury the illicit market share in 2008 was indicated as 7.9%, compared with claims in that year that the illicit market share was 20%. Industry findings that the illicit market decreased in 2007 and 2008 were not reported in the press.
Conclusions
The tobacco industry has adjusted previous estimates of the illicit trade share downwards to create the impression that illicit trade is high and rising. If previous estimates by the tobacco industry were incorrect the credibility of current estimates should be questioned
gpsbound: Routine for importing and verifying geographical information from a user provided shapefile
No full textGeographical coordinates such as Global Positioning System (GPS) latitude and longitude estimates form the foundation of many spatial statistical methods. gpsbound allows users to (1) import geographical information from the attribute table of a polygon shapefile based on the identified location of GPS coordinates in a Stata dataset, and (2) check that the GPS coordinates lie within the bounds of a polygon demarcated in the shapefile (e.g. enumerator areas, primary sampling units, suburb, city, country). One of the contributions of gpsbound is to allow users to work with spatial data in Stata without ever needing Geographical Information System (GIS) software
The demand side of clientelism: The role of client’s perceptions and values
No full textPolitical science literature on clientelism has tended to focus primarily on the role of parties and brokers, leaving the demand side of clientelism - the choices of potential clients - relatively unexplored. This paper proposes a formal framework shedding light on the demand side of clientelism. We conceptualize clientelistic choice as one between engaging in clientelism, on the one hand, and supporting a redistributive platform, on the other. This approach allows us to draw insights from the social psychology literature on mobilization and the economics literature on redistribution preferences. Our framework nests the standard model of clientelistic choice, with factors such as poverty and ideological stance, but also includes other factors such as perceptions of political efficacy and values regarding the legitimacy of existing inequalities. We start with a simple static model that allows us to study the role of these factors in a simple, unified way. Our framework is well suited to address issues relatively unexplored in the literature, including the role of clients in the persistence of clientelism and the reasons clientelism persists or is eliminated. Most importantly, we address how clientelism gets transformed from a “traditional” type of clientelism, embedded in legitimized social relations, to a “modern” type, such as vote buying. To address these issues, we study a dynamic extension of the model where efficacy and legitimacy perceptions are endogenized and the degree of informational connectivity in the community is incorporated. In our model, efficacy and legitimation perceptions reinforce each other because efficacy perceptions lead people to expect high and sustained inequality which is then legitimized in order to protect self-esteem. This generates multiple steady states, one of which resembles a “traditional” form of clientelism that features widespread clientelism and disempowered clients that legitimize social inequalities. Informational connectivity breaks this reinforcement mechanism and thus leads to a unique steady state where clientelism and programmatic redistribution co-exist, and that resembles a “modern” type of clientelism