921 research outputs found
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How the old age pension is helping young people from rural areas find jobs
No full textIt is important to know whether a social grant such as the old age pension eases financial constraints in rural areas, thereby allowing young men to migrate to urban areas for work – or whether these grants encourage idleness and dependency. This study finds no evidence of the latter. Instead, for young rural males there is an increase in their chances of migrating and finding work when a member of the household starts receiving the pension. Notably, these effects are only present for young men with at least a matric
An evaluation of the determinants and implications of panel attrition in the National Income Dynamics Survey (2008-2010)
No full textIn the absence of established longitudinal panel surveys in South Africa, national cross-sectional household survey data are frequently used to analyse change. When these data are stacked side by side, however, inconsistencies both in time trends and between household- and person-level data are found. This study uses a new set of weights calibrated to the Actuarial Society of South Africa 2003 model projected totals using a cross-entropy estimation approach. These weights are favoured because they produce consistent demographic and geographic trends. The calculated weights are similar to the initial sample weights (and hence retain the survey design benefits) but match to a series of age-sex-race and province marginal totals that are consistent over time. The weights are publicly available for the 14-year period between 1994 and 2007
Measuring changes in the illicit cigarette market using government revenue data: the example of South Africa
No full textThe tobacco industry claims that illicit trade in cigarettes has increased sharply since the 1990s and that government has lost substantial tax revenue. Our studies objectives were: (1) To determine whether cigarette excise tax revenue has been below budget in recent years, compared with previous decades. (2) To determine trends in the size of the illicit market since 1995.
Methods
For (1), mean percentage errors and root mean square percentage errors were calculated for budget revenue deviation for three products (cigarettes, beer and spirits), for various subperiods. For (2), predicted changes in total consumption, using actual cigarette price and GDP changes and previously published price and income elasticity estimates, were calculated and compared with changes in tax-paid consumption.
Results
Cigarette excise revenues were 0.7% below budget for 2000–2012 on average, compared with 3.0% below budget for beer and 4.7% below budget for spirits. There is no evidence that illicit trade in cigarettes in South Africa increased between 2002 and 2009. There is a substantial increase in illicit trade in 2010, probably peaking in 2011. In 2012 tax-paid consumption of cigarettes increased 2.6%, implying that the illicit market share decreased an estimated 0.6 percentage points.
Conclusions
Other than in 2010, there is no evidence that illicit trade is significantly undermining government revenue. Claims that illicit trade has consistently increased over the past 15 years, and has continued its sharp increase since 2010, are not supported
Country of origin and employment prospects among immigrants: An analysis of south-south and north-south migrants to South Africa
No full textWe study the relationship between country of origin and employment prospects for immigrants to South Africa, an emerging host country characterized by high levels of unemployment, labour market imperfections and a scarcity of skills. Using the 2001 South African census, we estimate the probability of being employed for working-age immigrant men and South African internal migrants. We find that, conditional on individual characteristics and education levels, the probability of being employed varies by country of origin, and that it is different for immigrants relative to native internal migrants. Immigrants from advanced sending countries outperform natives, while those from certain central, west-African and Asian countries underperform them. Additionally, results indicate that education increases the probability of employment for immigrants from all countries. These probabilities converge at high levels of education, resulting in greater dispersion of employment probabilities across countries at lower levels of education
Moving out and moving in: Evidence of short-term household change in South Africa from the National Income Dynamics Study
No full textThis analysis offers insight into short-term household change in South Africa by examining the extent and correlates of residential and compositional change. Data from Waves 1 and 2 of the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) are used to measure the change in physical residence between the waves, categorising individuals as either ‘movers’ or ‘non-movers’. Compositional change is also measured, by sorting individuals into ‘changers’ or ‘non-changers,’ based on whether their household membership was the same in Waves 1 and 2
Winners and losers: South African labour market dynamics between 2008 and 2010
No full textThere is little empirical work in South Africa using panel data to describe employment and earnings dynamics. This paper contributes by describing labour-market transitions in South Africa between 2008 and 2010 for individuals aged 20 to 55 across two waves of nationally representative panel data. We find that women had more mobility than men into and out of the labour market and employment. However, women were less mobile between kinds of employment and across occupations. Casual employment was very unstable, with very few individuals remaining in this state. In contrast, there was little mobility out of regular employment into other kinds of employment. Average real earnings changes were positive for movements into regular employment and negative for movements into self-employment or casual employment. Strong movement out of semi-skilled occupations was striking, especially for males. In multivariate models, being the mother of young children was important in leaving regular employment
Income mobility in a high-inequality society: Evidence from the first two waves of NIDS
No full textThe study of income inequality and income mobility has been central to understanding post-apartheid South Africa's development. This paper uses the first two waves of the National Income Dynamics Study to analyse income mobility using longitudinal data, and is the first to do so at a nationally representative level. We investigate both the correlates and root causes of moving up and down the income distribution over time. Using both absolute and relative changes as reference points, we highlight some of the factors associated with South Africans moving into and out of poverty
Job creation and destruction in South Africa
No full textAnalysts of the South African labour market have mainly used household surveys to analyse the labour market. It has been more difficult to explore the labour demand of firms, as a result of limited data availability. We use the Quarterly Employment Statistics survey, an enterprise survey conducted by Statistics South Africa, to explore how South African firms create and destroy jobs, thereby shedding light on many of the policy questions that are relevant in a high unemployment society like South Africa. We find that job creation and destruction rates are similar to those found in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. There is little evidence that labour legislation creates rigidities that prevent firms from hiring or firing workers. We also find that larger firms are better net creators of jobs than small firms and that net job creation rates are negative in manufacturing. Our research has important policy implications – particularly for the South African National Planning Commission's 2030 plan, in which new jobs are envisaged to come mainly from small- and medium-sized firms. Our research suggests that this scenario is not likely without changes to policy or legislation
Evidence of short-term household change in South Africa from the National Income Dynamics Study
No full textWe use longitudinal data from the National Income Dynamics Study to document the extent of recent short-term residential and household compositional change in South Africa. We analyse the demographic correlates of these transitions, including population group, age, urban/rural status, and income. We examine educational and labour-market transitions among movers and the prevalence of the four major types of compositional change – births, addition of joiners, deaths, and loss of leavers. We find that short-term household change is prevalent in South Africa. During a two-year period from 2008 to 2010, 10.5% of South Africans moved residence and 61.3% experienced change in household composition. We find that moving is more common among blacks and whites, very young children, young adults, urban individuals, and those with higher incomes. Among non-movers, compositional change is more likely for blacks and coloureds, young adults and children, females, urban individuals, and individuals with lower incomes
Abalone conservation in the presence of drug use and corruption: Implications for its management in South Africa
No full textThe illegal exploitation of wild abalone in South Africa has been escalating since 1994, despite increased enforcement, leading to collapse in some sections of its range. South Africa banned all wild abalone fishing in 2008 but controversially reopened the fishery in 2010. This paper formulates a poacher's model, taking into account the realities of the abalone terrain in South Africa - the high-value of abalone, use of recreational drugs, the prevalence of bribery, and corruption - to explore why poaching has not subsided. The paper suggests two additional measures that might help ameliorate the situation: eliminating the demand side through targeted enforcement on organised crime, and ceding the resource to the local coastal communities. However, local communities need to be empowered to deal with organised crime groups. Complementary measures to bring back community patriotism will also be needed given the tattered social fabric of the local coastal communities