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An interpretable neural network approach to cause-of-death mortality forecasting
Get PDFCause-of-death mortality forecasting, a key topic in public health and actuarial science, is a challenging task due to the difficulty of modeling that accounts for dependencies among causes of death. While several cause-of-death mortality models have been proposed to address this difficulty, little attention has been paid to improving their predictive performance. Recently, purely data-driven approaches using tensor decomposition methods have been introduced to cause-of-death mortality modeling, demonstrating strong out-of-sample predictive performance compared to existing models. However, these methods have difficulties in the interpretability of multi-rank tensor components to achieve strong predictive performance.In response, we propose a novel tensor-based cause-of-death mortality model by replacing the tensor decomposition with a convolutional autoencoder with a one-dimensional latent layer that provides a Lee-Carter-like time-series factor; the model also provides the age sensitivity of cause-specific log mortality to the time-series factor. Due to the representational capability of the neural network, our model achieves better predictive performance compared to the existing tensor decomposition-based models, despite the simplified latent layer for model interpretability.journal articl
Lay Participation in Civil Litigation -Public Attitudes Toward Civil Lay Judges, Civil Juries, and Compensation for Pain and Suffering-
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Pierre Hadot’s Philosophy as a Way of Life in his Wittgenstein and the Limits of Language -A Talk-
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Die „ Falschheit “ beim Meineid und der „ Wahrheitsbegriff im Prozess “
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Der normentheoretische Aufbau der tatbestandlichen Gleichwertigkeitstheorie（1）
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A Study on the Emergence of Criticism against “Soviet-Japanese Collusion” in China -Focusing on the Tyumen Project Based on Soviet-Japanese Economic Cooperation-
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An upper bound for the Frobenius number and stretched numerical semigroups
No full textLet H =（n₁, n₂, . . . , ne）be a numerical semigroup minimally generated by e elements. We give a new upper bound for the Frobenius number F(H) of H with respect to a pair of relatively prime generators (ni, nj) of H. Then we will determine the range of F(H) when H is stretched.journal articl