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Quantitative Analysis of the North Korea-China Trade on North Korean Economic Welfare and the Denuclearization Strategy of Korean Peninsula
No full text북한의 대외무역은 1990년대 중반 이후 지속증가하여 김정은 정권 시기에는 실질소득 증가와관련된 대외개방척도인 수입진입률이 24%로 영국과 프랑스 수준으로 증가하였으며, 이는 국제무역을 통해 북한의 일인당 실질소득이 2.7~5.3% 증가했음을 의미한다. 중간재 교역과 생산구조 변화까지 고려하면 그 효과는 2배 이상으로 증폭할 것이다. 이는 북한경제가 자급자족 경제로 회귀할 경우 감당해야 할 소득 손실의 기회비용이 매우 큼을 나타낸다. 하지만 2016년 이후 북한 수출입의 중국 비중이 90%를 넘어 북한경제 ‘무역의 이익’의 80% 이상이 중국에 기인한다. 이는 중국의 북한경제에 대한 레버리지가 단순한 원유공급 통제 차원을 넘어선 근본적인 차원임을 보여준다. 본 연구는 이러한 북한 대외개방의 중국 과잉의존 현상이 북한경제의 본질적 특징이 아니었으며, 2006~2009년 1~2차 핵실험에 따른 UN 제재를 계기로 대외무역이 어려워지자 다변화됐던 교역 파트너를 중국으로 대체하기 시작하면서 나타난 이례적인 현상임을 밝혔다. 이는 현재 교착상태에 빠진 한반도 비핵화 협상에 중요한 함의를 가진다. 최근 4~6차 핵실험에 기인한 대북제재는 비핵화 협상에 중요한 역할을 하지만, 이에 대한 경직적인 유지는 중국의 레버리지를 강화할 뿐이며 북한이 ‘무력에 의한 지대추구’ 혹은 ‘대중국 경제협력 과잉의존 강화’ 전략을 선택할 가능성을 높인다. 본 연구는 북한의 무역 다변화를 통한 중국 과잉의존 해소와 국제경제협력 참여역량 및 환경조성으로 북한 스스로 ‘실질적 개방과 평화를 통한 발전추구’ 안을 선택하도록 유도하는 접근이 교착상태에 빠진 비핵화 협상을 활성화할 전략임을 시사한다.
North Korea’s international trade has expanded since mid-1990s and the import penetration ratio, the openness measure in relation to the increase of real income from international trade, reached to 24% during the Kim Jong-un regime, close to the openness levels of U.K. and France. This implies North Korea’s real income per capita increased by 2.7~5.3% from the international trade. Incorporating the trade of intermediate goods and the changes of production structure, North Korean gains from trade would more than double. This also implies that the North Korea’s opportunity cost of real income loss by switching to autarky is enormous. However, the Chinese shares of North Korean trades exceeded 90% for both exports and imports since 2016, and more than 80% of North Korean gains from trade have been due to its trades with China. That is, Chinese leverage on North Korean economy is deeply fundamental beyond the simple control of crude oil supply. Our study reveals that such excessive reliance on China was not a genuine feature of the North Korean economy. Such phenomenon emerged during the 2006~2009 period when North Korea started to substitute the diversified set of trade partners with China to overcome the trading difficulty in response to the UN sanctions due to the North Korea’s first and second nuclear experiments. These empirical findings suggest critical implications on the denuclearization negotiation which has been in a stalemate. The recent series of sanctions against North Korea due to the 4th to 6th nuclear experiments might be an effective tool for denuclearization. However, our findings suggest that the rigid maintenance of those tight sanctions are likely to end up strengthening the Chinese leverage and forcing North Korea to adopt the strategies of “rent-seeking by violence” or “reinforcing the excessive economic cooperation with China” which would lead to undesirable outcomes of security and economic development for both North Korea and international community. Gearing down North Korea’s excessive reliance on China regarding its openness via trade diversification as well as building capacity and environments to participate in international economic cooperation would induce North Korea to adopt the “development by peace and true openness” as the first-best strategy. Our analysis shows that this approach would be an effective anchor to revitalize the deadlock denuclearization negotiation.2
Biofuels and Their Potential in South Korea
Get PDFWe investigated the biofuel potential of South Korea and the implications of the introduction of biofuels for the Korean fuel market. We approximated the upper-bound biomass potential from forestry residues, livestock manure, and staple crops and calculated the amount of fuel that could be produced using these different biomass feedstocks. Our assessment suggests that biomass can be used to produce a significant portion of the fuel consumed annually in South Korea, with the most promising feedstock being forestry residues. Out of all the technologies considered, the production of cellulosic ethanol from forestry residues could potentially impact the fuel market the most. The key novelty of our study lies in that we considered a broad portfolio of biofuel technologies and carefully examined their potential economic and environmental implications for South Korea given its biomass availability (which we estimated).1
are they safe enough?
Get PDFThesis(Master) -- KDI School: Master of Public Management, 2020This study supports the hypothesis that Korea’s Hydrogen Vehicle Certification Standards are lower than those of leading countries in Europe and North America and that there is a need for stricter certification standards. Korea’s hydrogen vehicle standards follow the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport’s Hydrogen Vehicle Certification Standard (HVCS), which is based on the European Parliament and Council Regulation (EC) No 79, EC79 established in 2009; therefore, one can arguably conclude that the standard is outdated. The issues raised in this research are on the basis of literature works that generally report findings implying the importance of urgency in adopting international examples of hydrogen energy management and safety policy cases to bring about hydrogen safety management (Kim & Lee, 2019). Further, the cause of our research is similarly supported by research on “The Roles and Impacts of Technical Standards on Economic Growth and Implications for Innovation Policy”, where standardization is described as a catalyst for innovation (Sullivan & Dodin, 2012).
I support this argument by carrying out a comparative analysis of domestic HVCS against international Hydrogen Ground Vehicle HGV 2, Economic Commission for Europe Regulation 134 ECE 134, and Global Technical Regulation GTR) standards by experimental test category and technical test stringency. A comparative analysis is carried out using the consequent model in this research termed “impact assessment”. The impact assessment involves scaling each technical standard covering aspects of safety disruption, impact upon failure, and catastrophic levels. The hypothesis in the research analysis is effectively proven right, showing Korea HVCS are lower. Further, whether Korea is currently equipped to carry out tests of international standards is analysed, which in this research we find to be mostly positive (more of a reason to support a raise in HVCS standards.)
To further support my argument, the implication of low certification standards, technological regulation in relation to international standards in facilitating international trade and fostering technological innovation are discussed. Implications of current HVCS are explored closely in the following context 1) double-testing by corporations to meet international standards creating economic costs, 2) low standards opening up the domestic market vulnerable to low standard imports, and posing a threat to existing high quality domestic products, 3) low technical regulations slowing technological innovation.
In contrast to the position this study establishes, one can see arguments that in terms of testing category, HVCS is not entirely exclusive of the global common tests, and technological advances have seen revisions in HVCS (exemplified by the revision in hydrogen testing container pressure from 350bar to 700bar). It may also be argued that harmonization of international standards, (such as International Laboratory Accreditation Cooperation ILAC, an international arrangement between member accreditation bodies based on peer evaluation and mutual acceptance), do not hold in real trade/practice setting.
Therefore, aspects such as double-testing by corporations to meet international standards is inevitable and therefore the implications of HVCS are unavoidable regardless of level of stringency in technical standards.
Further, another key counter-argument against raising HVCS standards is that international standards development, GTR 13 is an extension of the mandate for the Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Vehicles Sub Group Interagency Working Group (HFCV-SGS IWG) that works to tackle the development of the remaining issues of certification tests to meet improving technologies. GTR-13 is already well under development, which would establish a set of universal standards.
This study counters these competing arguments by showing that despite GTR-13, developed countries with technological competitiveness are creating stricter standards (especially for hydrogen vehicle equipment and parts-supported by “impact assessment” in this research). While GTR-13 will take time to develop, it is important that in order for South Korea to emerge with the world’s top technologies in hydrogen vehicle equipment and parts, it must raise the bar in its technical standards to cater for innovation. The timing of standards in relation with the technology S‐curve is followed in adopting technological standards research in order “to avoid delay in the diffusion of innovation, the timescale for standards should not be longer than for the innovation process” (Sherif, IEEE Com. Mag. 2001).
Moreover, standards may be seen as evolving documents, therefore there is a need to regularly update standards to reflect new technologies, material and methods. In the hydrogen energy area, this is complicated, since research and product development is happening simultaneous to the standards development. More the reason to revise hydrogen vehicle technical standards, which we discuss in further detail in this paper.
Through the efforts made in this research, I hope to contribute to HVCS development by finding critical areas of improvement in the current technical standards. This will be achieved through the “impact assessment” in this research. Further, by illustrating the importance of technical regulations standards in fostering innovation, I hope my research will raise awareness of the need strengthen HVCS standards. Raising HVCS in Korea will give medium sized enterprises in Korea the opportunity to grow beyond subsidiaries of conglomerates. SMEs of hydrogen vehicle equipment and parts can gain sheer size and become dominant players of the global market as they expand their capacity to meet standards of international levels.
As Korea enters the 4th industrial age, more studies on technical regulations and standards influencing practices associated with research, development, manufacturing and market development will be required; consequently influencing innovation, productivity and growth (Tassey, 2017; Blind, 2009) as well as the growing hydrogen economy in the future could take the contributions made in this research further forward.Background
Korea’s HVCS
Existing view
Methodology of research
Implications (arguments and counter-arguments)
Research subject and variables
Research Comparison
1. Hydrogen vehicle container technical regulation
2. Hydrogen vehicle equipment and parts technical regulation
Impact assessment and Results
Discussion
ConclusionmasterpublishedYe Na CHA
a case study of Bali
Get PDFThesis(Master) -- KDI School: Master of Development Policy, 2020Tourism is an important industry globally and a critical industry for Indonesia. Despite the importance of tourism to Indonesia’s economy, there is a general view that the industry has untapped potential. Given Indonesia’s prodigious tourism resources and strategic geographical location, it fails to draw the highest possible tourist numbers and receipts. Government has implemented some ambitious and strategic efforts to boost the number of foreign tourists to Indonesia. However, the country still lags behind its regional competitors in number of foreign tourists and receipts. Therefore, this study investigates information sources, both online and offline, as the lifeblood of the travel and tourism industry. Using factor analysis, information source attributes were examined to discover the rationale behind the selection of sources by international tourists. This paper also analyzed which sources used and constructed destination attributes, in acknowledgement of the significance of a destination image as a factor of travel decision making. This research focuses on international tourists and uses Bali as the case study. Results indicate that international tourists use both online and offline sources. The findings also indicate that the main reasons for the selection of sources are the interactivity and usergenerated content of sources. The results of this research can be used in tourism policy and marketing strategies by central and local governments as well as tourism communities.I. Introduction
II. Literature Review
III. Methodology
IV. Data Analysis
V. ConclusionsmasterpublishedElfridanche Widya S. PARDED
Does digital financial inclusion affect inequality?
Get PDFThesis(Master) -- KDI School: Master of Public Policy, 2020Digitalization has influenced the development of financial services. The rise of financial technology or FinTech allows more access for wider group of people to benefit financially. More access to financial services also increases the financial inclusion. This paper attempts to study on how digital financial inclusion have an effect to income inequality. In this research, we used panel data analysis with fixed‐effect model to estimate the effect. Sample data utilized 7 high‐income countries, 23 middle‐income countries, and 1 low‐income countries from 2011‐2018. The empirical study provides results that every 1 percent increase in mobile cellular subscriptions decreases the Gini coefficient by 4.64 percentage points. Meanwhile, every 1 percent increase of digital financial inclusion tends to increase Gini coefficient by 0.51 percentage points more in middle and low‐income countries. While every 1 percent increase of number of mobile and internet banking transactions in high‐income countries decreases the Gini coefficient by 0.37 percentage points. The study concluded that, as suggested by Kuznets curve, digital financial inclusion increases the income inequality in the country which is in the early stage of development, and decreases the income inequality of the country which is in the mature stage of development.Chapter 1. Introduction
Chapter 2. Literature review
Chapter 3. Methodology
Chapter 4. Presentation and discussion of empirical results
Chapter 5. Conclusion and policy recommendationmasterpublishedYani Parasti SIREGA
코로나19와의 동반, 2021년 이후의 한국경제
No full text1. 리스크리뷰
경제·금융시장/은행/보험회사/금융투자업자(증권)/저축은행/금융지주회사
2. 리스크분석 정보
1) 국내은행의 수익성 제고 전략 및 시사점
2) P2P대출의 리스크 요인 및 시사점
3) 최근 생명보험회사의 경영성과 및 리스크요인
3. 금융 포커스
1) 공동재보험 도입과 전망
2) 코로나발 금융시장 환경 변화와 자금흐름 전망
3) 코로나19와의 동반, 2021년 이후의 한국경제
4. 금융통계·주요이슈
1) 금융통계
2) 해외 금융, 경제 주요이슈
3) 국내 금융, 경제 주요이슈TRU
study of using hybrid panel data method and granger causality test and implication for Korea fiscal policy
Get PDFThesis(Master) -- KDI School: Master of Public Policy, 2020The increase in social expenditure due to the fact that aging population increases and the working population decreases is taking place in advanced countries. Given that social expenditure is a main part of mandatory spending of fiscal balance, it brings the concern of fiscal sustainability. The aim of this research is to investigate the relations between social expenditure and fiscal sustainability in 19 OECD countries from 2000 to 2018. 19 countries were divided into four groups, the southern Europe, the liberal, the central Europe, and the Northern Europe, except Korea and Japan. This research placed structural factors at its analytic centre using hybrid panel data model. Furthermore, this research examined the question as to whether the past time series of variables can predict other variables through granger causality test. For the purpose of analysis of granger causality test, IPS unit root test is used. Research result portraits that organization capacity is significant to explain the change of social expenditure at the 0.1 level of significance, holding other factors are constant. Granger causality test is rendered social expenditure and fiscal sustainability variables are granger caused each other for the last 18 years in most case. However, this research has largely two limitations; limitation of variables and short time series. Notwithstanding, this research is significant that using fiscal structural factors explains the change of social expenditure.Introduction
Review of literature
Variable Description and Research Question
Research Model
Research Results
Conclusion
ReferencesmasterpublishedJaeho J
policy Implication for climate change
Get PDFThesis(Master) -- KDI School: Master of Public Management, 2020Change in climate becomes as much as big challenge indifferent sectors including the agriculture to the whole world and mostly to the countries with small economy (developing and mid income countries) this happen because there some factors that drawback the improvement of this sector like government support, financial problems, and skills of using improved agricultural techniques. Tanzania as a developing country faces the same problem which hinders even the growth of the economy by considering that agriculture is the major economic activity and employs many people. The government of Tanzania has been tried to push this sector through different ways but still is not performing better as farmers depend on whether condition which mostly keeps on changing these days due to increase of human activities that pollute the environments and have adverse effects to the ozone layer and cause climate change. Therefore, this study aims at identifying better strategies (adaptation factors) for the challenges caused by climate change towards the agricultural productivity as drawbacks of Tanzania’s economy. The study has been conducted quantitatively while a random sampling method to get respondents has been used and primary data have been collected through a survey that is distributed online by using Qualtrics. The data analyzed by using simple linear regression and techniques like the use of irrigation systems, crop diversifications, greenhouse farming, and crop rotation identified to help in improving this sector. To adopt these techniques if difficult for the farmers as they need huge capital while most of the farmers in Tanzania are poor but, the government can help through different measures like policies, subsidies, and loans to the farmers. Hence, this study provides advice to the farmers, government, and NGOs concerning the better method to address this problem as well as to give the theory that change in weather condition does not always lead to a decrease in agricultural productivity but there techniques that can help to improve the agriculture sector by considering the social, economic, and geographic conditions of Tanzania.masterpublishedMariamu Abdallah MUSS
Nonprofit Partisanship
Get PDFWe establish a novel measurement of nonprofit organization ideology using semantic text analysis and validate it with a large-scale online experiment. On average, health- related nonprofits as well as education-related organizations, including US universities, are the most left-leaning group.
Religion-related nonprofits, on the other hand, are the most conservative. We then examine whether ”rage donations” for selected lib- eral nonprofits right after the Trump elections documented by the media hold true more generally across different sectors over different presidential elections. We find no evidence that expected shifts in ideology of a government systematically influence donations differently depending on nonprofit ideology