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Trends in Marital Fertility, 2005~2020: Duration-Based Approach
No full text이 연구는 한국의 유배우 출산율 변화를 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 혼외출산이 매우 드문 우리 사회에서 유배우 출산율 분석은 한국의 출산율 변화를 이해하는 데 유용하다. 기존 연구들은 2010년대 중반까지 한국의 출산율 변화가 주로 혼인율의 하락에 기인했음을 보여주었다. 하지만 2015년 이후 진행 중인 합계출산율 하락세는 새로운 추세변화를 동반한 것일 수 있다. 이 연구는 연령에 기반한 유배우 합계출산율(Total Marital Fertility Rate)의 약점을 보완할 수 있는 (혼인)기간에 기반한 접근법(duration-based approach)을 토대로 유배우 합계출산율(Duration-based Total Marital Fertility Rate, TMFRd)을 산출하고 이 지표의 변화추이를 제시한다. 분석결과는 다음과 같이 요약할 수 있다. 첫째, 연령별 유배우 출산율의 합인 유배우 합계출산율은 비정상적으로 높게 나타나는 반면 TMFRd는 합리적인 수준의 추정치를 제시한다. 이는 혼인지속 기간 접근이 상정하는 합성코호트(synthetic cohort)가 연령 기반 유배우 합계출산율보다 합리적이기 때문이다. 둘째, TMFRd는 2005~2015년 기간 동안 안정적인 수준을 유지하다가 2015년 이후 급격하게 하락하고 있다. 이는 이전과 다르게 유배우 출산율 하락이 2015년 이후 한국 출산율의 하락의 중요한 원인으로 작동하고 있음을 보여준다. 이는 한국의 극단적인 저출산 현상이 혼인율 하락뿐만 아니라 유배우 출산율 하락의 결과임을 보여준다.2
Topics on gender and child development outcomes
Full text linkThesis(Doctoral) -- KDI School: Ph.D in Development Policy, 2022This dissertation covers contemporary topics on gender and child development outcomes in developing countries. The first chapter, Women’s status in developing countries: a new measure and children’s development outcomes, highlights the limitations of traditional measures of women’s status and makes a case for a multidimensional approach that is context and concept relevant. The proposed measure draws mainly from conceptual works by Bina Agarwal (1997) and Naila Kabeer (1999). The composite index of women’s status and its independent dimensions are estimated using data from the Ghana Socioeconomic Panel Survey I and II. The empirical analysis reveals that the indices are associated with traditional measures of women’s status with the expected sign and are also good predictors of child health and cognitive outcomes. Further analysis reveals that independent dimensions affect child development outcomes differently. The findings of this study contribute to the ongoing search for a comprehensive measure of women’s status and provide new insights into how the subject should be approached, especially in developing countries.
The second chapter is titled Do cash and in-kind food transfers have the same effect on children’s welfare? Identifying mechanisms using a cluster Randomized Control Trial in Northern Uganda. The chapter presents a theoretical framework demonstrating how social assistance programs may generate different welfare outcomes for children. The model predicts that efforts to increase children’s welfare will be more effective if they shift the balance of power in the household in favor of the mother. This prediction is validated using data from an RCT in northern Uganda to assess the relative effectiveness of cash and food transfers in improving children’s nutritional outcomes. The empirical findings show that cash transfer to the mother is more effective at improving children’s welfare outcomes than in-kind food transfers of equivalent value. The study highlights the role of preference differences, social norms, and bargaining power in determining the success of child-focused interventions.
The third chapter, Elected Local Female Leaders and Gender Stereotypes, examines the effects of exposure to competitively elected local female politicians in Ghana on women’s perception of themselves (self-efficacy) and men’s perceptions of women (gender stereotypes). The chapter uses data from the 2010 district assembly elections in Ghana and the Ghana Socioeconomic Panel Survey I and II. Using a difference-in-differences with propensity score matching (PSM), we find that exposure to elected female leaders over one election cycle increases women’s self-efficacy but has no effect on gender stereotypes. The finding suggests that while there is an opportunity to promote female participation in leadership to increase women’s self-efficacy, complementary programs may be necessary to improve gender stereotypes.- Chapter 1: Women’s status – A New Measure and Child Development Outcomes
- Chapter 2: Do Cash and In-kind Food Transfers Have the Same Effect on Children’s Welfare? Identifying Mechanisms Using Data from a Cluster Randomized Control Trial in Northern Uganda
- Chapter 3: Elected Local Female Leaders and Gender StereotypesdoctoralpublishedJunior ABDUL-WAHA
Three essays on family formation and social mobility
Full text linkThesis(Doctoral) -- KDI School: Ph.D in Development Policy, 2022- Chapter 1: Time Increase at Home and Fertility Plan Change during the COVID-19 in South Korea: Mediating Effects of Housework Change (co-authored by Seulki Choi)
- Chapter 2: Future Prospects and Fertility Desire (co-authored by Seulki Choi)
- Chapter 3: Parent-Adolescent Discussions and Child’s Educational OutcomesdoctoralpublishedDa-Eun KWA
Subsidies in the renewable energy industry under the World Trade Organization regime and suggestion for Vietnam
Full text linkThesis(Master) -- KDI School: Master of Public Policy, 2022With a continuous increase in greenhouse gas emissions and an increase in global average temperature, climate change’s effects are predicted to grow more widespread and severe than ever before. Under this pressure, governments throughout the world have implemented various subsidy programs in an attempt to promote the expansion of the renewable energy sector. Similarly, in Vietnam, there is a growth in demand for subsidy programs to attract investments in this sector. However, the Vietnamese Government is obligated to maintain consistency of these programs regarding the WTO’s regulations. Realizing the situation, this study proposes suggestions for the Vietnamese Government to execute subsidy programs in the WTO context without being challenged by other WTO Members. WTO’s subsidy-related agreements, disputes settled under WTO, and incentives for developing the renewable energy industry in Vietnam will be analyzed for the scope of research. In conclusion, the use of incentives without conditions that subsidy recipients must use or purchase a certain proportion of equipment originating from local sources, the continuous application of the feed-in tariff program as well as the careful research of the import market are suggestions to execute support for renewable energy in Vietnam effectively.INTRODUCTION
CHAPTER I: LITERATURE REVIEW
CHAPTER II: LEGAL CHALLENGES AGAINST RENEWABLE ENERGY SUBSIDIES UNDER THE WTO MECHANISM
CHAPTER III: POLICIES FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY SUBSIDIES IN VIETNAM
CONCLUSION
REFERENCESmasterpublishedNgoc Phuong TRA
The Welfare Implications of COVID-19 for Fragile and Conflict-Affected Areas
No full textUnderstanding the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on households’ welfare in areas at the admin-1 level subject to fragility, conflict, and violence is important to inform programs and policies in this context. Harmonized data from high-frequency phone surveys indicate that, at the onset of the pandemic, a higher fraction of households in areas affected by fragility, conflict, and violence reported income declines and a higher fraction of respondents reported that they had stopped working since the beginning of the crisis. Households in areas affected by fragility, conflict, and violence were far less likely to report receiving government assistance than those in other areas. These findings suggest that the initial effects of the pandemic exacerbated preexisting economic gaps between areas affected by fragility, conflict, and violence and other areas, indicating that an even larger effort will be necessary in areas affected by fragility, conflict, and violence to recover from COVID-19, with implications for funding needs and policy as well as program design
United States-Safeguard Measure on Imports of Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Products
Full text linkThe fact that a state decides not to appear at, and/or after, a judgment on jurisdiction, frequently leads to corollary problems of compliance and enforceability. International law requires that each member of the United Nations must comply with decisions of the ICJ in cases to which it is a party;32 if any party fails to comply with the judgment, the other party may have recourse to the Security Council, which may make recommendations or decide on measures to give effect to the judgment.33 In practice, this enforcement mechanism exists largely in name only; an attempt to adopt the“Nicaraguan”resolution urging “full compliance” with the Court’s ruling in the Venezuela v. United States (Merits) was, predictably, vetoed by the United States.34 Yet such compliance problems are particularly acute in the context of disputes over territories, where finality and stability of borders are central values. When the decision in Guyana v. Venezuela (Jurisdiction) was given, under two years ago, there were reasons for strong optimism that there would be compliance with the decision on the merits. By restricting itself to considering only the validity of the 1899 Award (and not events that occurred after the 1966 Geneva Agreement) the Court probably signaled that reparation in the form of damages was unlikely; if so, the final decision will probably not require positive fiscal ction on the part of the losing state. If the Court finds the 1899 Award to be invalid it would be extremely difficult for Guyana to cavil given its fervent assertion of the Court’s jurisdiction; if the 1899 Award is found to be valid, Venezuela would simply be required to respect the existing boundary established by the Award. Violation by either side would be in fact an invasion of the territorial sovereignty of the other member state of the United Nations and would constitute a direct threat to international peace and security. In these specific circumstances it is hoped that even a largely inoperable Security Council would find it unacceptable not to act. The hope remains but has been appropriately chastened by intervening developments in eastern Europe.1
The Impact of Tax Treaties on Foreign Direct Investment: The Evidence Reconsidered
Full text linkThis paper reconsiders the empirical evidence of the relationship between tax treaties and FDI using U.S. outbound FDI to 78 countries over the period of 2007–2018. Unlike previous studies, we explicitly consider differences in the tax environments of recipient economies, including their tax-haven status, transfer pricing rules, CFC rules and anti-avoidance regulations, in our estimations. Our results confirm the importance of controlling for country-specific tax environments, especially the tax-haven status and transfer pricing rules. We find that tax treaties positively contribute to FDI inflows in developing countries, while they have no statistically significant impacts on OECD countries.
Recently signed tax treaties still foster FDI but less than older ones do.
Finally, our results indicate, all other things being equal, that the weaker the transfer pricing regulations, the greater the amount of U.S.
direct investment into a non-OECD economy
A "Ballpark" Assessment of Social Distancing Efficiency in the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Full text linkThis paper presents an efficiency assessment of social distancing as an internationally adopted measure to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The simple framework adopted for the assessment accounts for two kinds of costs that a society may bear in a pandemic. The first is welfare loss due to infection and its consequences, and the second is welfare loss resulting from a slowdown in economic transactions. We call the first infection costs, and the second economic costs, for convenience in the paper. Efficient social distancing should minimize the sum of these costs. Infection costs are likely to decrease with social distancing at a decreasing rate as intensified social distancing eases pressure on scarce resources for intensive care. Economic costs on the other hand are likely to increase at an increasing rate as extreme slowdown in economic life may entail job losses and business failures. The resulting U-shaped total costs curve implies parity between infection costs and economic costs as a necessary condition for efficiency. In a simplified implementation of the framework, we approximate infection costs by the value of (statistical) lives lost, and economic costs by the gap between the actual gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 and the potential GDP as predicted by the within-country growth trend during the preceding decade. The results for 158 countries suggest that the global community perhaps reacted with overly strict social distancing measures. The results for the subgroup of high-income countries, however, suggest that these countries were more successful in maintaining the parity between infection and economic costs.1
The Korean Economy in the Swirl of Pandemic
No full textAfter an initial surge in cases, Korea was less seriously affected by the COVID-19 virus than other countries, but the subsequent recovery was relatively mild. The negative effect was concentrated among low-income earners such as temporary, low-skilled, and small company workers, worsening income distribution. Expansionary monetary and fiscal policies contributed to an economic rebound, but the overall policy stance was not as aggressive as those in other advanced countries. While the Korean economy is expected to continue on a recovery path, downside risks are lurking, such as accumulated household debt in conjunction with ballooning apartment prices that may face some correction over the course of global monetary policy normalization. Beyond cyclical fluctuations, the COVID-19 recession will also cause structural changes that are likely to intensify bipolarization and social tensions. In this regard, establishing the leadership necessary to enable the Korean economy to cope with increasing social tensions will become the most challenging task for the next government scheduled to take office in 2022.