Insitutional Repository at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
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レジャー消費自粛の経済効果 -産業連関モデルによる分析
Get PDFhttps://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/hosoe_nobuhiro/東日本大震災後のレジャー消費に対する自粛がもたらした影響を、簡単な産業連関モデルを用いて分析する。「娯楽サービス」, 「飲食店」, 「宿泊業」の3つの「自粛(被害)産業」に対する民間需要が外生的に10%低下すると仮定すると、中間投入と通じた波及効果によって、農水産業とそれに関連する産業が2%程度、電気, ガス, 水道, 廃棄物や不動産, 放送, 広告業といったサービス業が1%弱生産を減少させることがわかる。We quantified the impact of the decreased recreation demand caused by voluntary self-restraint following the Great East Japan Earthquake. We assumed an exogenous 10% reduction of the private consumption demand for three recreation industries experiencing decrease in demand due to “self-restraint”: amusement and recreational services, eating and drinking places, and accommodations. We used a simple input-output model and found that their decline would reduce agriculture, fishery and related manufacturing sector output by about 2% and that of electricity, gas supply, water supply and waste management service by at most 1% through the input-output linkages.経済学 / Economicstechnical repor
Underestimation of Inefficiency in Social Efficiency Benchmarking with Non-Parametric Methods of Production Technology Identification: A Note
Get PDFhttps://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/yoshida_yuichiro/In the conventional social productive efficiency measurement, a DEA-based non-parametric method is typically employed to identify the piece-wise-linear production possibility frontier. Applying the directional distance-function approach a-la Luenberger (1992) to the production possibility frontier obtained in this fashion can, however, lead to an underestimation of inefficiency for a DMU with relatively large undesirable outputs. This underestimation becomes more acute if the sample size is small or data are clustered. This paper reveals the mechanism behind this underestimation bias, and then quantifies the degree of underestimation using nine-year panel data of rail and aviation sectors in Japan. Through a comparative analysis between parametric and non-parametric methods, we find, among others, that the underestimation of the aviation sector’s productive inefficiency is as large as 80%, which the non-parametric method failed to detect.経済学 / Economicstechnical repor
What Drove the Crop Price Hikes in the Food Crisis?
Get PDFhttps://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/hosoe_nobuhiro/In the late 2000s, the world grain markets experienced severe turbulence with rapid crop price rises caused by bad crops, oil price hikes, export restrictions, and the emergence of biofuels as well as financial speculation. We review the impacts of the first four real-side factors using a world trade computable general equilibrium model. Our simulation results show that oil and biofuels-related shocks were the major factors among these four in crop price hikes but that these real-side factors in total can explain only about 10% of the actual crop price rises.経済学 / Economicstechnical repor
The Impact of Remittance on Poverty and Inequality: A Micro-Simulation Study for Nepal
Get PDFhttps://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/leon_gonzalez_roberto/We estimate a household consumption function using two rounds of the nationally representative panel of living standard measurement survey (LSMS) of Nepal and simulate the impacts of remittance on poverty and inequality. We study how these impacts vary with the regional ‘incidence’ and maturity of the migration process and with the country-source of remittance. We find that remittance has conditional impacts on both poverty and inequality, which largely depends on the ‘incidence’ and maturity of the migration process and, more importantly, on how lower quintiles of the society participate in this process. The national-level simulations indicate that remittance decreases the head count poverty by 2.3% and 3.3% in the first round of the survey, and between 4.6% and 7.6% in the second round. It reduces even further the depth (at least 3.4% and at most 10.5%) and severity (at least 4.3% and at most 12.5%) of poverty. Although overall remittance increases inequality, this is less so in the second round of the survey. Furthermore, remittance payment from India, which is on average much lower than from other countries, decreases inequality and has the largest impact on poverty reduction. This is due to the larger participation of the poor in the Nepal-India migration process. The region-wise simulations show that remittance has larger impacts on poverty reduction in the regions that have higher levels of migration.JEL Classification Codes: F22, F24, I32, D63経済学 / Economicstechnical repor
開発援助の展望: 貧困・格差問題の新たな展開
Get PDF新興国を中心に多くの途上国が経済成長したことにより、貧困・格差の問題は新たな展開を見せている。1990年代から2000年代にかけて、絶対的な貧困者数は減少し、多くの国において貧困層の所得も向上した。
しかし中所得国においては、経済成長に伴い格差が拡大する国が相当数あり、格差の拡大を抑制または補完する政策の実行が重要な課題となっている。また中所得国には、未だに貧困層と貧困層を少しだけ上回ったばかりの人々が、膨大な数存在する。中所得国の貧困問題は、開発援助のターゲットとして引き続き重要である。
低所得国（特に重債務貧困国イニシアティヴの対象国）においては、貧困層の所得向上という面だけに注目すれば、それなりの成果をあげている国が多い。しかし経済成長が小さかったため、この低成長のままでは貧困削減が近く行き詰まる可能性が高い。持続的な貧困削減を達成するために、経済成長と貧困削減の両立の模索が急務である。
先進国の低所得者と途上国の高所得者間で、所得水準が交差し始めている。このことは、開発援助資源の確保において先進国の税収にのみ頼るのではなく、例えば途上国を含む富裕層に負担を求めていくことにつながる可能性がある。革新的資金調達メカニズムは、単に財政難に苦しむ先進国の補完的な財源ではなく、開発資金の負担者をだれにするのかという開発援助の基本問題を再定義しようとする動きであり、今後も重要性が増すと考えられる。Although the number of people under the absolute poverty line has been dramatically reduced, there are still various challenges in poverty reduction. Inequality is growing in many middle income countries. The very poor people in some middle income countries are poorer than those in low income countries. The international society has to pay more attention to them. Many low income countries have succeeded in poverty reduction but not in economic growth since mid-1990s. In those countries, the ratio of the income of the bottom decile to the national average is getting closer to one-to-three, where most developing countries cannot go beyond that ratio. The low income countries needs pro-poor growth to maintain successful poverty reduction.
The poor in rich countries and the rich in poor (middle income) countries are getting overlapped. Country-to-country development assistance could be less reasonable if the overlap become larger. The innovative schemes of development financing have various possibilities of additional financial mobilization. But more importantly, some of them provide alternative frameworks who are supposed to share the burden of the global poverty reduction.経済学 / Economicstechnical repor
Fukushima Dai-Ichi and the Economics of Nuclear Decontamination
Get PDFhttps://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/munro_alistair/Economic analysis of nuclear accidents and their aftermath is comparatively rare. In this paper, in the light of the Japanese government’s intensive efforts to decontaminate areas affected by radioactive Caesium from Fukushima dai-ichi nuclear power plant, we create a cost-benefit framework for assessing the merits of decontamination strategies. Using some benchmark data for Japan we estimate that optimal delay is positive for most reasonable parameter values. For low value land, optimal delay could be in excess of 30 years. For higher value, urban land, optimal delay generally lies in the range of 5-10 years.JEL Classification Codes: D61, Q51, Q53経済学 / Economicstechnical repor
Learning about one's own type: a search model with two-sided uncertainty
Get PDFThis paper examines the movement of an individual's reservation level over time in a two-sided search model with two-sided imperfect self-knowledge, where agents are vertically heterogeneous and do not know their own types. Agents who do not know their own types update their beliefs about their own types through the offers or rejections they receive from others. The results in this paper show that an agent with imperfect self-knowledge revises his or her reservation level downward when the agent receives a rejection that has some information about his or her own type. In contrast, an agent with imperfect self-knowledge revises his or her reservation level upward when the agent receives an o¤er from an agent of the opposite sex who is of lower type than the reservation level. This upward revision of an agent's reservation level is due to the environment of two-sided imperfect self-knowledge.JEL Classification Codes: D82, D83, J12経済学 / Economicstechnical repor
Setting handicaps to industrial sectors in DEA illustrated by Ethiopian industry
Get PDFhttps://www.grips.ac.jp/list/facultyinfo/tone_kaoru/In the ordinary macro-economic input-output tables, the industrial sector consists of several dozen industries and each industry in a certain sector is an aggregate of many companies in the sector. The sectoral statistics are the sum of statistics of companies in the respective sector. Usually, all sectors have the same set of inputs for producing outputs. For example, they have labour, capital and intermediate as input and amount of production as output. We can apply traditional DEA models for evaluation of efficiency regarding all sectors by means of these common input and output factors. However, there remain some insecure feelings in comparing all sectors as a scratch race. Some sectors are in fields with matured technologies, while others are in emerging fields. Some are labour intensive, while others are capital intensive. These situations lead us to compare sectors under a handicap race. In this paper, we propose a new DEA model based on the non-convex frontiers that all associated sectors may exhibit and handicaps are derived from. We apply this model to Ethiopian industry.総合政策 / Multi Disciplinary policy studiestechnical repor
A Fiscal Perspective on the Sustainability of Japanese Government Debt
Get PDFJapan’s outstanding debt keeps increasing and there are concerns regarding its sustainability. Nevertheless, the financial market seems to be neglecting such concern. Its growing debt level and subdued general price level are not easy to explain from the fiscal theory of price level (FTPL) either. Thus, Japan has been a “puzzle” for many. This puzzle can be better understood with extended definition of government and its debt. If Fiscal Investment and Loan Program (FILP) agencies are included in the definition of “government”, Japan was running surpluses for several years since 2000, implied by the change in the real value of the government’s total debt including loans owed to the private sector. This paper introduces the new measurement scheme for the fiscal state of Japan and its implication on FTPL calculations to analyze the puzzle and to address the debt sustainability issue of Japan through FTPL perspectives on “Abenomics”.technical repor
Introduction
Get PDFapplication/pdfTetsushi Sonobe and Keijiro Otsuka, "Cluster-Based Industrial Development : KAIZEN Management for MSE Growth in Developing Countries", 2014, Palgrave Macmillan UK, reproduced with permission of Palgrave MacmillanThis extract is taken from the author's original manuscript and has not been edited. The definitive, published, version of record is available here: http://www.palgrave.com/jp/book/9781137384690boo