Insitutional Repository at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
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Climate change and migration decisions: A choice experiment from the Mekong Delta, Vietnam
Get PDFhttps://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/munro_alistair/Forecasting the impact of climate change on migration is difficult, given widespread reliance on historical data and limited exposure to actual climate change amongst target populations. This study takes a different approach, developing a new methodology that employs a choice experiment to examine intentions to migrate among farmers living in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, one of the areas in the world most significantly affected by climate change. The respondents are asked to make migration choices for scenarios constructed using six attributes: drought intensity, flood frequency, income change from migration, migration networks, neighbors’ choices, and crop choice restriction. The results suggest that increasing the intensity/frequency of drought/flood increases the likelihood of migration; the effects are stronger for individuals with prior experience of climate change. Furthermore, the contribution of network attribute is gendered and dependent on migration experience. Finally, crop choice restriction, such as those widely employed by the Vietnamese government to control rice planting, may trigger a higher probability of migration. These findings provide insights into the debate on climate change-migration nexus in rural and lowland areas that are seriously affected by climate change. Furthermore, extensive choice experiment data on migration preferences under a diverse range of climate variabilities facilitates projections of environmentally induced migration.JEL Classification Codes: C35,D9,R23,Q51technical repor
Global Value Chains and the Missing Exports of the United States
Get PDFhttps://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/xing_yuqing/Revised to: April, 2019 [19-01] http://id.nii.ac.jp/1295/00001665/ | http://id.nii.ac.jp/1295/00001665/More and more American multinational corporations (MNCs) are outsourcing the production and assembly of their products to foreign companies. When they do so, they derive the largest share of their revenue from the intellectual property embedded in core technological innovation and brand names. However, conventional trade statistics are compiled based on the value of goods crossing national borders, as declared to customs. Generally, the value added associated with intellectual property rights and embedded in physical goods is not recorded as either export or import of any country. Hence, current trade statistics greatly underestimate US exports and substantially exaggerate its trade deficit. In this paper, we use the case of Apple, the largest American consumer products company, to illustrate the failure of conventional trade statistics to report actual US export capacity in the age of global value chains. According to our analysis of this case, if the value added of Apple intellectual property sold to foreign consumers were counted as part of US exports, total US exports would increase by 3.7%, and its trade deficit would decrease by 7.5%. In terms of bilateral trade, the value added under examination here would lower the US trade deficit with the Greater China region by 6.7% and that with Japan by 9.1%.JEL Classification Codes: F1technical repor
Changing roles of innovation and imitation in industrial development: The case of the machine tool industry in Taiwan
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Global Britain, Belt and Road Initiative, and New Southbound Policy: Which One Matters to Southeast Asia?
Get PDFhttps://www.grips.ac.jp/list/en/facultyinfo/lim_guanie/In anticipation of the impending memberships of China, the UK, and Taiwan in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), this paper analyses the three economies’ foreign direct investment (FDI) flows entering the region over the last 20 years. Several findings are noteworthy. Firstly, the UK outinvested China and Taiwan between 1995 and 2008. However, its preponderance has been trimmed in the years after the 2008 global financial crisis. Secondly, UK FDI is largely geared towards Singapore and Malaysia, suggesting the resilience of former colonial ties. FDI from China predominantly enters its immediate neighbours (e.g., Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia) and those sharing sociopolitical similarities with it (i.e., Singapore and Indonesia). Taiwanese firms invested relatively more in Vietnam and the Philippines, which are adjacent to Taiwan. Thirdly, all three FDI donors invested mostly in the tertiary sector. Nevertheless, relative to China, the UK and Taiwan channelled more of their FDI towards manufacturing activities. The findings could provide essential evidence to understand or anticipate which economy will play a more significant role in the region’s political and economic affairs especially when their CPTPP membership is ratified.technical repor
