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Evaluating the Determinants of Inbound Tourism Demand: A Panel Data Approach to Economic, Environmental, and Safety Influences in European Mediterranean Countries (Spain, Greece and Turkey)
The tourism sector has grown rapidly in recent years and is one of the most important economic sectors in the world. This thesis analyzes the determinants of tourism demand in Spain, Greece and Turkey, three of the most important destinations in the Mediterranean region. Given the growing importance of the tourism sector, this study analyzes which economic factors have the greatest influence on tourism demand, the role of political stability and security indices, and the impact of global crises such as COVID-19, geopolitical tensions and climate change on travel behavior. Using a panel data regression analysis for the period from 2012 to 2023, variables such as income, relative prices, trade openness and the Global Peace Index are considered. The empirical analysis includes various models, including pooled OLS, Random Effects and Fixed Effects, with the final model being a Fixed Effects model with GLS Cross-Section SUR weights, which provides the most robust results. The results show that income has a positive impact on tourism demand in all countries, while relative prices and trade openness vary by country. Political stability and global crises, such as COVID-19, have a significant negative impact on tourism demand. The research shows how important it is to take a closer look at the various factors influencing tourism demand in order to develop targeted strategies for the tourism industry