The Pakistan Development Review
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    Linkage between Stock Market Prices and Exchange Rate: A Causality Analysis for Pakistan

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    Globalisation and financial sector reforms in developing economies have ushered in a sea change in the financial architecture of the economies. In the contemporary scenario, the activities in the financial markets and their relationships with the real sector have assumed significant importance. Correspondingly, researches are also being conducted to understand the current working of the economic and the financial system in the new scenario. Interesting results are emerging particularly for the developing countries where the markets are experiencing new relationships which are not perceived earlier. The analysis on stock markets has come to the fore since this is the most sensitive segment of the economy. The stock markets of emerging economies have been of vital importance to the global investment community. Since emerging markets are more volatile than the well developed stock market, therefore the emerging markets tend to be unrelated to one another and with the developed markets. Numerous investors worldwide select to diversify their funds across the emerging markets

    Trade Liberalisation as an Instrument for Regional Co-operation

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    South Asia is home to nearly 1.4 billion people, a vast part of humanity. The countries in the region vary widely in the size of the population as well as area and physiography. On one side of the scale is India with a population of more than a billion while on the other side is Maldives with a population no more than half a million. There is Bangladesh which is essentially a flat delta, island countries such as Sri Lanka and Maldives and countries full of high rise mountains such as Nepal and Bhutan. In between are India and Pakistan with some of everything. While there are several such external differences among the countries in the region and their people, these are literally only skin-deep. The people in the region share, by and large, the same basic culture. In many cases the same or a similar language is spoken across the borders. There are, of course, local variations in the general pattern. But that diversity makes it all the more interesting and attractive. It is only natural that the countries of the region will band together to show a united face to the world. This is yet to happen, though

    The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan

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    The significance of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows is well documented in literature for both the developing and developed countries. Over the last decade foreign direct investment have grown at least twice as rapidly as trade Meyer, (2003). As there is shortage of capital in the developing countries, which need capital for their development process, the marginal productivity of capital is higher in these countries. On the other hand investors in the developed world seek high returns for their capital. Hence there is a mutual benefit in the international movement of capital

    Is Pakistan’s Manufacturing Sector Competitive?

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    The manufacturing sector of any country bears significant importance. Globalisation, and in particular, enhanced exports are generally believed to benefit developing countries. And with Pakistan’s exports concentrated largely in textile and semi-manufactures, the country needs to strengthen this sector. Since the foreigncurrency dominated export prices for developing countries are largely determined in the international market, any downward slide in them exerts a downward slide in foreign-exchange export earnings. It is therefore imperative, for a country like Pakistan, to prevent the decline in manufacturing output, not only to sustain but also to increase the export share and hence to gain external competitiveness in this sector

    Total Factor Productivity Growth in Pakistan’s Agriculture: 1960-1996

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    Nearly one-quarter of Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is contributed by the agriculture sector and it employs nearly 44 percent of the labour force. Agricultural exports, directly and indirectly, make up a large proportion of total exports and foreign exchange earnings of the country. Agriculture in Pakistan faces considerable challenge in the 21st century. The present population of about 149 million, growing at about 1ta. 9 percent per year, is expected to double to 298 million in about 40 years. Pakistan’s agriculture has experienced rapid growth since the 1960s. The average annual growth of about 4 percent in the four decades before the onset of the new millennium has exceeded the population growth that touched about 3 percent for a substantial part of this period.1 This rate of growth in agriculture has been sustained by the technological progress embodied in the highyielding varieties of grains and cotton with supporting public investment in irrigation, agricultural research and extension (R&E), and physical infrastructure. Agricultural growth, in turn, has made significant contribution to the overall economic growth of about 6 percent per year during this period. Despite rising per capita income, food demand is likely to grow rapidly given the low level of current per capita income. There is a compelling need for sustained efforts to increase production of essential items (wheat, edible oils, etc.). Faced with limits to further expansion of cultivated land and slowing returns to further input intensification, productivity growth assumes a central role in meeting the challenges of the future

    The Determinants of Capital Structure of Stock Exchange-listed Non-financial Firms in Pakistan

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    Capital structure refers to the different options used by a firm in financing its assets. Generally, a firm can go for different levels/mixes of debts, equity, or other financial arrangements. It can combine bonds, TFCs, lease financing, bank loans or many other options with equity in an overall attempt to boost the market value of the firm. In their attempt to maximise the overall value, firms differ with respect to capital structures. This has given birth to different capital structure theories that attempt to explain the variation in capital structures of firms over time or across regions. On the other hand, empirical evidence is also not sometime consistent in substantiating a particular capital structure theory

    Shorter Notices

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    M. Ashraf Janjua. History of the State Bank of Pakistan (1988–2003). State Bank of Pakistan. 976 pages. Hardback. Price not given. M. Ashraf Janjua. History of the State Bank of Pakistan (1988–2003) Supplement. State Bank of Pakistan. 352 pages. Hardback. Price not given.

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    History of the State Bank of Pakistan is a series beginning with two volumes published first in 1992 and 1994. The former covered the 1948–60 period and the latter the years from 1961 to 77. M. Ashraf Janjua then wrote the next two volumes covering the years 1977–88 and 1988–2003. The third volume, pertaining to the years 1977–88, was reviewed by A. R. Kemal (PDR, 42:2, pp.161–166). That volume contains not only the major developments in the monetary and real sectors during the eleven-year period but also traces the developments since Independence

    Electric Power Generation from Solar Photovoltaic Technology: Is It Marketable in Pakistan?

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    Solar photovoltaic systems are prohibitively expensive in terms of installation costs. Power from them is also available intermittently—only when energy from the sun is available. On the other hand, PV systems are free of the ever-rising costs of input fuel. They also incur much less operation and maintenance costs and are supposed to have a longer lifetime than, for example, a fossil fuel power plant. Thus using solar-PV power looks uneconomical in the short term, but may be profitable in the long term. It is, therefore, interesting to identify the factors that can make investment in solar PV power generation acceptable. This paper carries out a financial analysis of installing a 10 MW solar photovoltaic power generation plant for sale of electricity to a grid. It compares the levelised cost of this mode of energy generation as compared to a fossil fuel plant. It also calculates the cost of electricity generation and tariff for power from this plant. It then identifies the factors that can make the investment in a grid-scale solar PV plant more favourable than investment in other conventional and non-renewable sources

    Transition of Poverty in Pakistan: Evidence from the Longitudinal Data

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    Interest in the dynamics of income and consumption at the household level has increased in the developing countries as measures of living conditions at a point in time are not necessarily a good indicator of its stability over time. For many purposes it is important to adopt a dynamic perspective, distinguishing between extremely, chronically or transitory poor. In Pakistan studies of poverty at a point in time provide very valuable information about its nature, characteristics and distribution. However, given the fluctuations in many dimensions of poverty such as school enrolment, nutritional status and income, these studies are unable to capture the dynamics of this phenomenon, making it impossible to analyse the factors associated with the poverty transition, i.e., movement into and out of poverty

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