The Pakistan Development Review
Not a member yet
2465 research outputs found
Sort by
Improving the Quality of Population Census 2008
Get PDFCensus data generates information on total population count
and its various socio-economic and demographic characteristics
disaggregated by age and sex from national to provincial and down to
district, tehsil and village level. The utility of these data is crucial
for studying historical trends and for planning and formulating
development programmes, especially for the recently devolved set up of
administration. The next Population and Housing Census is likely to be
carried out in 2008. The procedure of census data collection is lengthy
and costly, and data compilation and its tabulation are subject to
errors and inadequacies which have strong implications for policy
formulation. Reporting errors during the data collection stage are also
common, which need to be minimised...........................This Policy
Viewpoint has been prepared by Naushin Mahmood, Ghulam Yasin Soomro, G.
M. Arif, M. Framurz Khan Kiani, and Khalid Hameed Sheikh
Financial Market Integration in Pakistan: Evidence Using Post-1999 Data
Get PDFThe recent wave of financial sector reforms and
internationalisation in emerging markets has increased perceived
interlinkages within various sectors of national financial markets. For
example, the existence of a strong linkage between stock prices and
exchange rates is a popular topic in academic research. Similarly,
changes in stock prices and exchange rates are expected to influence
movements in interest rates. A number of hypotheses suggest such a
causal relationship. For instance, using a goods market approach, any
changes in the value of currency would affect the competitiveness of
multinational firms and hence influence stock prices [Dornbusch and
Fischer (1980)]. Similarly, the hypotheses of ‘exchange rate
pass-through’ and ‘interest rate pass-through’ suggest that changes in
exchange rates and/or interest rates could affect stock prices. The
portfolio balance model suggests that fluctuations in stock prices
influence exchange rate changes
Stock Market Volatility and Weak-form Efficiency: Evidence from an Emerging Market
Get PDFThere exists a vast literature on modeling and estimating
aggregate stock market volatility over the past decade [e.g., Choudhry
(1996); Mecagni and Sourial (1999) and Kabir, et al. (2000)].
Motivations for undertaking this exercise have been varied. Many
value-at-risk models for measuring market risk require the estimation of
volatility parameter. Portfolio diversifications and hedging strategies
also require information on volatility as a key input. Volatility is
defined as tendency of the assets price to fluctuate either up or down.
Increased volatility is perceived as indicating a rise in financial risk
which can adversely affect investor assets and wealth. It is observed
that when stock market exhibit increased volatility there is a tendency
on part of the investors to lose confidence in the market and they tend
to exit the market. The nexus between volatility and economic
fundamentals is still a moot point. Stock prices reflect information and
quicker they are in absorbing accurately new information, more efficient
is the stock market in allocating resources. The increase in volatility
can be attributed to absorption of new information about economic
fundamentals or some expectations about them. This kind of volatility is
not harmful as there is no social cost associated with it. But if
increased volatility is not explained by the level indicated by the
fundamental economic factors, there is a tendency that stocks will be
mispriced and this will lead to misallocation of resources [Karmaka
(2006)]
Demographic Change and Governance Issues
Get PDFPakistan is the 6th most populous country in the world while
it ranks 4th in Asia. Its population has increased from 34 million in
1951 to an estimated 160 million in the year 2006, growing at the rate
of three million persons per year. At this speed of growth, Pakistan’s
population is projected to reach the 220 million mark by the year 2020;
as we arrive at the Population Replacement Level. While Population
Growth Rate (PGR) has declined from over 3 percent in previous decades
to its current level of 2.1 percent per annum, which is, nevertheless,
the highest population growth rate in South Asia, a dubious achievement
when compared to the situation in the neighbouring countries. Therefore,
the government policy remains intact, which is to lower population
growth rate from its current level to 1.3 percent per annum by the year
2020, to reduce the total fertility rate to 2.1 percent and to reach
replacement level of fertility by the year 2020. Unless its growth rate
swiftly, by the year 2060, Pakistan is destined to become the 4th most
populated country in the world, its population reaching over 305 million
mark. In 1950s it was ranked 14
Efficiency of Large-scale Manufacturing in Pakistan: A Production Frontier Approach
Get PDFThe large scale manufacturing sector in Pakistan has gained
increasing prominence over the years with its share in output rising to
about 13 percent in 2005-06 from 5.67 percent in 1959-60.1 The sector
has operated amid varying policy environments ranging from outright
import substitution in the early years to a more deregulated and liberal
environment in the recent years driven largely by concerns to improve
the efficiency of the industrial sector which is critical for attaining
greater competitiveness. While industrial and trade policy reforms in
recent years have exposed domestic enterprises to greater internal and
external competition, most of these enterprises continue to seek state
patronage and have yet to reposition themselves to compete effectively
in the global market place. Furthermore, the trade policy still has an
import substitution bias for certain critical sectors whose imports are
subject to tariff peaks and this raises concerns on their efficiency.
This study aims to assess the efficiency of large scale manufacturing
sector in Pakistan using the production frontier approach. Section 2
reviews the literature while Section 3 sets out the methodology and
discusses data employed in the study. Section 4 analyses empirical
findings, and Section 5 concludes the discussion
Main Issues for Setting the Civil Service Reform Agenda in Pakistan
Get PDFCivil service reform is not new to the development debate in
Pakistan. The role of bureaucracy is discussed every now and then. Civil
service reform is nowadays quite uniformly discussed as a major problem
for development in Pakistan, or at least so it is considered. Most of
the blame for policy and programme failures is assigned to the civil
service. Recognising the importance, or persistence of the problem,
governments over time have attempted to deal with the issue by setting
up committees and commissions, many times in this paper I am presenting
a discussion of some pre-eminent issues besetting the civil service in
Pakistan in my view unless these issues are addressed at the outset no
meaningful reform can be formulated or implemented. Addressing them is
paramount for setting an agenda for the reform. Civil service reform due
to the complex nature of the problem works at various levels
simultaneously. As long as this does not over simplify and aggregate
problems it can work well. But for good results disaggregating problems
will be required. What is required to be done in one branch might not be
needed in the other. Legal instruments with a general and most wide
ranging application should deal with basic principles of organisation
while providing for differential rules to emerge and give detailed
structures. A set of actions to deal with the basic structures will be
part of any reform but sometimes what remains ignored is that actions
are also needed in other spheres of Pakistan’s public life without which
the reform in civil service itself will not attain the cherished goals.
The paper takes up discussion of issues from these levels of
consideration. It begins with the aggregation framework and goes on to
highlight the most urgently felt area of local civil service. It ends by
highlighting the complementary actions
Trends in Absolute Poverty and Governance in Pakistan: 1998-99 and 2004-05
Get PDFPoverty reduction has been at the centre stage of the policy
agenda in Pakistan since the beginning of economic reform in the 1990s.
Conversely, poverty indices show that the level of poverty has shown no
sign of significant poverty reduction despite numerous policy and
institutional initiatives undertaken by the government. The debate on
trends in poverty during the 1990s has been wide-ranging in Pakistan.
Although there has been a consensus that poverty rose during the 1990s,
some controversies emerged on the analysis of poverty based on PSLM
2004-05. The official poverty estimates suggest that poverty declined
substantially by 10 percentage points from 34.5 percent in 2001-02 to
23.9 percent in 2004-05. In contrast to this, World Bank (2006) has
shown that decline in poverty was by 5 percentage point during the above
period
Anwar Shah (ed.). Public Expenditure Analysis. Washington, D. C.: The World Bank, 2005. xxxi+256 pages. Paperback. Price not given.
Get PDFPublic Expenditure Analysis is the 7th edition in the “Public
Sector Governance and Accountability Series” edited by Anwar Shah. The
book attempts to contribute to public sector reforms by improving
governance in the public expenditure analysis—to disburse the benefits
to grossroots levels in the developing countries. It deals with the
intricate issue of equity in both the tax burdens and public spending
and evaluates performance of government in safeguarding the interests of
the poor and other disadvantaged groups of the society, such as women,
children, and minorities. The eight chapters of the book that consist of
papers prepared by distinguished authors systematically develop a
framework for a right-based approach to citizen empowerment by creating
an institutional design with appropriate rules, restraints, and
incentives to make the public sector responsive and accountable to the
average voter
Strategic Directions for Developing an Islamic Banking System
Get PDFIslamic banking generally referred to as interest free banking
has been gaining popularity in the recent past. The main pillar of
Islamic finance is prohibition of interest. Unlike conventional banking
where interest is an integral part of the banking system, Islamic
banking avoids interest in all bank transactions [Samad and Hassan
(1999)]. The banking system in Pakistan is undergoing a transition from
conventional model of banking to the new concept of Islamic banking,
based on principles of Islamic economics. The new system should not only
eliminate interestbased transactions but also introduce the concept of
“Zakah” a contribution to the poor [Molla, et al. (1988)]. The
prohibition of Riba is based on the arguments of social justice and
equality