The Pakistan Development Review
Not a member yet
2465 research outputs found
Sort by
Tourism Promotion and Regional Development in Low-income Developing Countries
Get PDFThere are not so many papers that the economic effects of
tourism are examined in a general equilibrium framework. The features of
those papers are that they assume that tourism is regarded as
non-tradable goods and services and that tourism is consumed by not only
foreign tourists but also domestic residents. However, since our purpose
of this paper is to examine the economic effects of tourism promotion on
low-income developing countries, we assume that most domestic residents
cannot afford to consume tourism, which is considered as a luxury good.
Under such assumptions, we examine the effects of two tourism promotion
policies on a developing economy. The main result we obtain is that both
the policies improve the standard of living for the farmers in a rural
region while they worse the standard of living for the workers who are
employed in an urban region
Address by Shahid Malik High Commissioner of Pakistan in India
Get PDFPresident PHD Chamber, Mr Sanjay Bhatia, Distinguished Members
of the Chamber, Ladies and Gentlemen. It gives me immense pleasure to be
amongst you once again, after nearly a decade. Having served on an
assignment in Delhi in the past, the PHD Chamber and many of your senior
members present here today are well known to me. Given the geographical
contiguity of this area with Pakistan and a history of economic
linkages, the interest of the Chamber in seeking mutually beneficial
economic relations with Pakistan is well known and understandable. Only
last month, a delegation headed by Mr Bhatia, with past PHD Presidents
as its members, undertook a tour of EXPO-2007 to Karachi. As on various
occasions in the past, the Chamber also hosted a high level delegation
from the Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry recently. Such
contacts are useful and need to be encouraged
Money, Inflation, and Growth in Pakistan
Get PDFThis paper attempts to investigate the linkage between the
excess money supply growth and inflation in Pakistan and to test the
validity of the monetarist stance that inflation is a monetary
phenomenon. The results from the correlation analysis indicate that
there is a positive association between money growth and inflation. The
money supply growth at first-round affects real GDP growth and at the
second round it affects inflation in Pakistan. The important finding
from the analysis is that the excess money supply growth has been an
important contributor to the rise in inflation in Pakistan during the
study period, thus supporting the monetarist proposition that inflation
in Pakistan is a monetary phenomenon. This may be due to the loose
monetary policy adopted by the State Bank of Pakistan to show the high
priority of the growth objective. The important policy implication is
that inflation in Pakistan can be cured by a sufficiently tight monetary
policy. The formulation of monetary policy must consider development in
the real and financial sector and treat these sectors as constraints on
the policy. JEL classification: E31, C22, C32 Keywords: Money Supply,
Inflation, Growth, Quantity Theory, Monetary Policy, Pakista
Remittances, Trade Liberalisation, and Poverty in Pakistan: The Role of Excluded Variables in Poverty Change Analysis
Get PDFThis paper explores the impact of two shocks, trade
liberalisation policies and decline in remittances, on welfare and
poverty in Pakistan. It begins by reviewing the economy, which reveals
that during the Nineties although import tariffs were reduced by 55
percent, poverty however remained higher in this period than in the
Eighties. At the same time, Pakistan has experienced a slow down in the
inflow of remittances, which reduces the incomes of households and puts
pressure on the exchange rate resulting in reduction in the inflow of
imports despite a reduction in import duties. Thus, in the absence of
the effects of decline in remittances, the analysis of the impact of
trade liberalisation policies may render biased results. This study
overcomes this constriction and analyses the impact of trade
liberalisation policies in the absence and presence of decline in
remittances in a CGE framework with all the features necessary for trade
policy analysis with poverty and remittances linkages. The simulation
results show that a decline in remittances reduces the gains from trade
liberalisation. The negative impact of remittance decline dominates the
positive impact of trade liberalisation in urban areas. But, the
positive impact of trade liberalisation dominates the negative impact of
a decline in remittances in the case of rural areas. Poverty rises in
Pakistan as a whole. It shows that the decline in remittance inflows is
a major contributory factor in explaining the increase in poverty in
Pakistan during the Nineties
Governance of Money Laundering: An Application of the Principal-agent Model
Get PDFMoney laundering has an element of a bate for one individual
and a tool of exploitation for another individual and carries an
externality (positive or negative) for the society. Its multifarious
nature is analysed in perspective of Principal-Agent-Client Model of
Provan and Milward (2001). Model of Network Evaluation by Provan and
Milward (2001) is originally used for health and social sector; however
this model is extended and applied for governance of money laundering.
In this model we evaluate the affectivity of the network of money
transaction with the objective function to minimise transaction of money
through money laundering by making laws and procedure and get these
implemented through agents. As there is involvement of multiple
stakeholders, therefore, evaluation of network effectiveness is made at
three levels i.e. at community level to analyse: community, the network
itself and the network’s organisational participants. These levels are
of interest to three major constituents of money transaction network
such as principal, agent, and clients
Promoting Domestic Commerce for Sustainable Pro-poor Growth
Get PDFTo frame the issue, two characteristics of Pakistan should be
noted. First, Pakistan has a very large market of 160 million people.
For decades, this fact has been ignored in policy because of the focus
on production and exports.1 Second, a large and growing population has
now produced a huge youth bulge in the population which will work itself
out for much of this century: 50 percent of the population is “under
20”.2 Progress of the spread of education has been slow, leaving this
bulge largely unskilled, and hence with limited employment
possibilities. Domestic commerce is the most pro-poor growth possibility
in the country. Currently, it employs about 40 percent of the labour
force and contributes about 52 percent to GDP. If it can be provided
with an enabling environment, our estimates suggest that it could help
increase the growth rate by at least 2 percentage points. In addition, a
pick up of activity in this area would increase employment
substantially. Following this agenda would need a huge increase in
construction activity, strong development in hotelling, retail shop,
transport, warehousing, storage, and other service industries. The
employment impact of this would be far larger than through investment in
any other sector
Inflation in Pakistan
Get PDFThis paper examines the factors that explain and help forecast
inflation in Pakistan. A simple inflation model is specified that
includes standard monetary variables (money supply, credit to the
private sector), an activity variable, the interest and the exchange
rates, as well as the wheat support price as a supply-side factor. The
model is estimated for the period January 1998 to June 2005 on a monthly
basis. The results indicate that monetary factors have played a dominant
role in recent inflation, affecting inflation with a lag of about one
year. Private sector credit growth and broad money growth are also good
leading indicators of inflation which can be used to forecast future
inflation developments. JEL classification: E31, C22, C32 Keywords:
Inflation, Pakistan, Leading Indicators, Forecasting, Monetary
Polic
Trade Liberalisation, Financial Sector Reforms, and Growth
Get PDFThe relationship between trade liberalisation, financial
reforms and economic growth has been well-documented in the economic
literature. A considerable body of literature suggests a strong and
positive link between trade liberalisation, financial development and
economic growth. It has been argued that trade and financial
liberalisation policies reduce the inefficiency in the production
process and positively influence economic growth. This argument is
strengthened by the fact that countries with more open trade and
financial policies may grow faster than those with restricted trade and
financial policies. An increasing openness is expected to have positive
impacts on economic growth [Jin (2000); Fry (1995, 1997); Darrat (1999);
Levine (1997); Mckinnon (1973); Shaw (1973) and World Bank (1989)].
There is growing consensus among the researchers that both
liberalisation policies are expected to exert positive impacts on
economic growth
Renew Cities to be the Engine of Growth
Get PDFPIDE Cities Research Programme was initiated in Karachi with a
conference titled Cities: the Engine of Growth on November 15-16, 2006.
The conference was held in our largest city and was well-attended by
economists, architects, town planners, Nazims, government officials,
NGOs, journalists, and other citizens. The discussion was animated and
about twenty-five speakers addressed the gathering. All points of view
were represented and debated